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* Press release…
The Illinois Department of Public Health (IDPH) today announced 1,317 new confirmed cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Illinois, including 25 additional confirmed deaths.
Cass County: 1 female 80s
Cook County: 3 females 60s, 2 males 60s, 1 unknown 60s, 3 females 70s, 2 males 70s, 2 females 80s, 1 male 80s, 1 female 90s, 1 male 90s
DuPage County: 1 male 70s
Lake County: 1 female 70s
McHenry County: 1 female 80s
Peoria County: 1 female 90s
Will County: 1 female 70s
Winnebago County: 1 male 60s, 2 males 80sCurrently, IDPH is reporting a total of 151,767 cases, including 7,144 deaths, in 102 counties in Illinois. The age of cases ranges from younger than one to older than 100 years. Within the past 24 hours, laboratories have reported 32,987 specimens for a total of 1,911,743. The preliminary seven-day statewide positivity for cases as a percent of total test from July 3 –July 9 is 2.9%. As of last night, 1,436 people in Illinois were reported to be in the hospital with COVID-19. Of those, 306 patients were in the ICU and 155 patients with COVID-19 were on ventilators.
Following guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, IDPH is now reporting both confirmed and probable cases and deaths on its website. Reporting probable cases will help show the potential burden of COVID-19 illness and efficacy of population-based non-pharmaceutical interventions. IDPH will update these data once a week.
The trend is not our friend, but we’re still better off than a lot of other states. Even so, today’s positivity rate is 4 percent. That’s up a point and a half over the past week or so.
* Back on May 8th, Wirepoints was strenuously arguing against large IDPH regions…
The governor continues to impose a top-down lockdown strategy that makes no sense for most areas of the state. Some of his required conditions risk Illinois being shut down for an impossible length of time.
Individual counties and their respective health departments should be ready to set their own policies, suited to the particular risks and situations of their own communities. That’s particularly true now that the curve in Illinois has been flattened and the original emergency order has expired.
On May 8, IDPH reported 4,768 COVID-19 patients in the hospital (3.3 times as many as are in the hospital today) and 1,220 in the ICU (4 times as many as today). The curve was indeed “flattened,” but it flattened at a high plateau back then. They were flat-out wrong.
* Today, Wirepoints is now arguing for a single, statewide approach to reopening schools…
Full reopenings must be the standard. School districts should have the choice to do less, but anything other than a full reopening should result in a refund to taxpayers.
Pick a lane already.
* Tribune live blog headlines…
Chicago Catholic schools to require masks, temperature checks when students return this fall
Glenview’s Flick Aquatic Center closes after 2 lifeguards test positive for COVID-19
PPP loans were meant to help small businesses save jobs amid the pandemic. So why does official data show thousands of recipients retained zero jobs?
City tightens bar and restaurant regulations to help prevent COVID-19 spread
City expands reopening of Riverwalk, restoring path to full, daylong use
After historic responses to COVID-19 and civil unrest, Illinois National Guard winds down its deployment
* Sun-Times live blog headlines…
All bars must now close by midnight to prevent ‘late-night congregating,’ city says
United, pilots reach tentative furlough deal
Starbucks in-store customers will be required to wear face masks starting July 15
Employers report 15,600 job cuts to state in June
Would you go to the beach or a public pool if you could? What Chicagoans told us.
We can’t fly; we can’t hug; at least let us grin
posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Jul 10, 20 @ 2:37 pm
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Previous Post: Another day, another lawsuit: “The mandates are being thrust upon [plaintiff’s] minor child for no other reason than the general purpose of trying to prevent the spread of an infectious disease”
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“pick a lane”
Don’t have to. Dabrowski slings the tripe, Bishop runs with it, at least two days.
A month from now, when most, if not all states have closed back down, Dabrowski will run some garbage about how Pritzker should have waited before going into Phase 3 and 4.
Bishop will be on it like stink on the Center Square.
Comment by efudd Friday, Jul 10, 20 @ 2:47 pm
We need leadership to keep reminding us of what got us to our recent success, and to have plans in case we lose significant ground. We can’t be afraid to scale back reopening if necessary. We worked so hard to have our success.
Comment by Grandson of Man Friday, Jul 10, 20 @ 2:48 pm
We need to follow the lead of other states like Michigan and roll back indoor service in bars and restaurants, close the gyms.
We know now that this virus is airborne. People. Annoy protect themselves with a mask while eating and drinking. People expel and consume more virus during heavy exercise.
Wait until Monday to announce it, effective Tuesday or Wednesday, or the aforementioned businesses will be packed this weekend.
Make masks mandatory inside businesses that do remain open with no exceptions.
The plans to reopen schools in a month are in jeopardy.
Comment by Thomas Paine Friday, Jul 10, 20 @ 2:49 pm
“People cannot protect themselves”
Comment by Thomas Paine Friday, Jul 10, 20 @ 2:50 pm
The governor needs to return to regular pressings. Maybe not daily but often enough to keep the message out there of what is expected. If not kept front and center everyone will relax their guard.
Comment by illinifan Friday, Jul 10, 20 @ 2:52 pm
== The governor needs to return to regular pressings. ==
Maybe he doesn’t want to be asked why the state moved into Phase 4 before adequate contact tracing was in place.
Comment by harp5339 Friday, Jul 10, 20 @ 3:00 pm
Florida, with nearly twice our population, had 1,371 on June 10. Just putting this in perspective.
Comment by Ouch Friday, Jul 10, 20 @ 3:04 pm
This is I think the first time in more than a month that the one day positivity rate was over 3.
Not good, obviously. I’ll keep beating the drum of taking a new look as to allowing restaurants and bars to re-open for indoor service.
Comment by Nick Friday, Jul 10, 20 @ 3:18 pm
* which would you rather have? *
The case count has always been a bogus number, solely dependent on the amount of testing going on. Positivity rate, hospitalizations, and mortality are the only reliable indicators of what is really going on. Florida’s mortality number is very surprising given their large elderly population.
Comment by Wood Chuck Friday, Jul 10, 20 @ 3:19 pm
Deaths in Florida in the last two days have been the highest than any two days previous throughout the entire pandemic.
For their sake, I hope your post ages well.
Comment by Nick Friday, Jul 10, 20 @ 3:20 pm
Wood Chuck, that person used a dishonest metric. Deleted. Move along.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Jul 10, 20 @ 3:21 pm
* We know now that this virus is airborne. *
No, we do not know that.
Comment by Wood Chuck Friday, Jul 10, 20 @ 3:22 pm
@Nick -
The positivity rate is a relatively meaningless statistic.
It only tells you whether there is enough testing available, not whether the pandemic is growing.
The number of positive test results has doubled in a week. The pandemic is growing.
Comment by Thomas Paine Friday, Jul 10, 20 @ 3:23 pm
@Numbers this is far from over. Too early to compare covid deaths in Illinois to Florida or another state. The hot spots and deaths in March - May included Illinois it’s now shifted. Florida is reporting about one hundred more deaths per day than Illinois now. Your comment may not age well come mid-August/September and beyond.
Comment by 1st Ward Friday, Jul 10, 20 @ 3:23 pm
=== Illinois has half the number of cases, BUT double the number of deaths - compared to Florida.===
I can’t think of any state right now that would trade with Florida currently, or in the past 10 days, or in the coming days as lagging indicators catch up.
Florida is doing so well GOP folks are opting out of the convention in Jacksonville.
This is a global pandemic… the globe sees the United States failing, and a finer point, states choosing to be less restrictive still seeing the first wave surge… that’s the first wave… we haven’t even gotten to a second wave.
I’m proud of the Governor and his crew. It all hasn’t been perfect, but they have made sure the science and the people were most important and not making decisions where money is more important than lives.
We all, meaning me too, all of us, need to do our best, wear a mask, social distance, and trace… and work with officials in all aspects.
The world is watching, they are saying “do better” and our state is trying to do its best, it’s up to us to do our part.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Jul 10, 20 @ 3:24 pm
Wear a mask. It’s not that hard.
Comment by SSL Friday, Jul 10, 20 @ 3:29 pm
* The positivity rate is a relatively meaningless statistic. *
The positivity rate is the number of positive tests per individuals tested - probably the best indicator we have. About the only thing better would be random testing of individuals, with or without symptoms.
Comment by Wood Chuck Friday, Jul 10, 20 @ 3:30 pm
People are acting like Covid 19 isn’t a problem anymore. In my area they are having huge parties and shaming mask wearers. Meanwhile the Northeast region hospitalization rate is increasing in a worrisome way per the Restore Illinois site. The Northeast region was at -86% hospitalization rates on June 25 and today its -43%. Pritzker needs to start the pressers again. People aren’t taking this seriously. It is making me so angry that public non-compliance is going to rob my children and so many others from being able to return to school next month. And for those who don’t have children consider this: schools need to be open so parents can work. A significant portion of the economy is sidelined when schools are closed like this.
Comment by Moderate Mom Friday, Jul 10, 20 @ 3:32 pm
Paine,
I’m not sure if ‘relatively meaningless’ is right. After all if you test 10K and get 300 positive cases, versus 20K with 600 cases, you can say cases have ‘doubled’ but our understanding in terms of how widespread the virus might be in the wider community shouldn’t really change.
But, as it seems like lately, if our case counts are going up not just because we’re testing more, but because those tests are picking up a higher proportion of positive cases (higher positivity rate), then that’s an especially poor sign, and would be indicative of higher community spread.
Comment by Nick Friday, Jul 10, 20 @ 3:33 pm
Let’s review Florida’s mortality figures on November 1.
The projection for Florida is 17K deaths now.
For Illinois, it’s 8,900.
Comment by Thomas Paine Friday, Jul 10, 20 @ 3:37 pm
===The projection for Florida is 17K deaths now===
Yeah. And Florida’s positivity rate is 19.6 percent. So much for “meaningless.”
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Jul 10, 20 @ 3:40 pm
I think at this point IMHE is pretty discredited.
Time will tell. It seems like people’s predictions are based more on politics than good science. Of course the science has a lot of uncertainty right now
Comment by Ouch Friday, Jul 10, 20 @ 3:45 pm
Each of these measurements has it’s own inherent value. I wouldn’t characterize any of them as meaningless or over-index on one vs. the other. We do however need to keep a close eye on hospitalizations given our finite resources. The other data points are leading indicators that we could have a problem.
And with regards to Wirepoints, they’re making the same arguments that were used to reopen FL, AZ, and TX early. Didn’t exactly work out well.
Comment by Pundent Friday, Jul 10, 20 @ 3:48 pm
Another day where I really wish we had more data journalism / public comments about where this new spike in cases is coming from. What I’m afraid of, sort of what a commentator pointed out above, is that without a robust testing and tracing system in place - right now - the positivity rate alone isn’t giving us very much insight at all, about what we should be doing / closing next.
Comment by ZC Friday, Jul 10, 20 @ 3:51 pm
I agree with @illinifan if we’re not talking about it people are not staying vigilant. Folks are making fun of the southern states not paying attention to our new cases rising.
IHSA did no favors to this with their original idiotic rules that helped cause the outbreak in Lake Zurich sports camps. Maybe if they weren’t a for profit organization they’d actually care about the kids not bottom line.
Comment by Frank talks Friday, Jul 10, 20 @ 3:54 pm
Right. I don’t think the point is to hold any one metric above the other, or say any are meaningless, we have to consider the whole.
While also being aware that, especially if thanks to more testing we’re catching rising cases early, that some metrics will lag others.
Comment by Nick Friday, Jul 10, 20 @ 4:01 pm
Saw the case count.
Said lots of words that would get me banned here.
Things might be looking really grim on the 1st of August.
And sorry (not sorry) regarding Florida. Hopefully they’re about to get some sense whacked into their thick heads.
Comment by Lynn S. Friday, Jul 10, 20 @ 4:05 pm
From Johns Hopkins:
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/testing-positivity
“If a positivity rate is too high, that may indicate that the state is only testing the sickest patients who seek medical attention, and is not casting a wide enough net to know how much of the virus is spreading within its communities. A low rate of positivity in testing data can be seen as a sign that a state has sufficient testing capacity for the size of their outbreak and is testing enough of its population to make informed decisions about reopening.”
Again, the positivity rate only tells you if you have enough data to make an informed decision about reopening. A low positivity rate means you have enough testing and enough data, it does not mean you should reopen or remain open.
I agree Rich, the high positivity rate in FL suggests that their current case count does not reflect how many people out there are actually infected and that things are indeed much worse.
Our low positivity rate suggests that things are exactly as bad as our positive case increase suggests.
It’s a secondary stat, like sample size, and yes, relatively meaningless. It is a positive sign that we have enough access to testing, but it does not mean infections are not growing.
Testing without contact tracing leaves you with only the blunt instrument of lockdown phases.
Comment by Thomas Paine Friday, Jul 10, 20 @ 4:05 pm
@Nick -
True, if the increased availability means were are catching cases earlier that is great, although now there are delays in testing results is not great.
Also, Rhode Island has had to downgrade its ballyhooed claim that they have tested 25 percent of the state.
It turns out only 16 percent of Islanders have been tested, the others were actually duplicate tests.
I do have a concern that we may have people in Illinois that are being retested, especially at this point in the game, and that if there is a large enough group being retested it can much the data.
Don’t get me wrong, if ER staff and nursing home staff want to get tested every day I am for it and I think we should pay for it. But if part of your sample is IDPH testing and retesting high risk folks repeatedly it would be nice to have the data disambiguated.
I also wish these numbers were reported by county and included demographics like gender, race and age range for a better understanding.
Comment by Thomas Paine Friday, Jul 10, 20 @ 4:14 pm
Also, there is going to be some squawking about mortality rates.
Understand that mortality rates have dropped because the medical community has gotten much better at recognizing COVID over the last four months and much better at treating it.
Not because scientists and public health officials didn’t know what they were talking about four months ago.
Comment by Thomas Paine Friday, Jul 10, 20 @ 4:17 pm
=Florida’s positivity rate is 19.6 percent.=
And Miami-Dade County had a positivity rate of 33.5% yesterday, with a 24% rate over 14 days.
Duval County, where the Republicans plan to have their convention, is at 20%.
Comment by JoanP Friday, Jul 10, 20 @ 4:18 pm
I think we already should move back to Phase 3 given the rising cases and positivity, soon to be reflected in hospitalizations and, sadly, deaths. In-person school relies on squashing the case load so that contact tracing can be done. We are already beyond that.
Comment by Jibba Friday, Jul 10, 20 @ 4:19 pm
John Hopkins is correct
In that an overly high positive rate is indicative of a lack of testing. And a low positive rate would suggest that testing capacity is currently adequate.
But what John Hopkins is not saying is that those are the ONLY things the positivity rate may tell us. That’s a logical leap.
After all what’s the difference between a state having adequate testing capacity, and suddenly not? Rising case counts are not always, let alone the only, indication of increasing community spread.
Comment by Nick Friday, Jul 10, 20 @ 4:20 pm
I googled neighboring states corona virus reporting (Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio). They are all going up.
Wisconsin 2nd day in a row of record number of cases; hospitalizations jumped the highest in over a month this week.
Indiana - cases highest since beginning of May hospitalizations up from last week
Michigan - Cases rising since mid-June with highest case count since early May but hospitalizations flat week over week
Ohio - Largest single case count reported today 7 of the highest 10 daily case counts recorded since July 1. Hospitalizations up 19% since June 21.
4th of July was last weekend. How many people in Illinois went to neighboring states? Next week or two will be telling to where Illinois is headed.
Comment by 1st Ward Friday, Jul 10, 20 @ 4:22 pm