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You’re gonna need a bigger boat

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• Illinois

* Um…

[The University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign] plans to offer free tests to the 50,000 students expected to return in August, and roughly 11,000 faculty and staff. […]

“The exciting thing is because we can test up to 10,000 per day, it allows the scientist to do what’s really the best for trying to protect the community as opposed to having to cut corners, because of the limitations of the testing,” [University of Illinois chemist Martin Burke] says. […]

University of Illinois epidemiologist Becky Smith says data suggest campuses need to test everyone every few days, because when a person gets infected, a detectable amount of virus doesn’t show up for three or four days. […]

She has recommended that all students, faculty and staff be required to get tested twice a week, at least to start the semester. As the year goes on, the school might transition to targeting individuals at higher risk.

OK, let’s do the math.

UIUC can test up to 10,000 people per day, assuming everything goes well, nothing breaks, no unforeseen shortages, it’s not raining or snowing outside where people are waiting in line, etc.

They have 61,000 people they need to test. Testing them twice per week would mean they’ll need to perform 122,000 tests, but they can only do 70,000 tests per week, assuming everything goes well and they can work 7 days per week.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Jul 27, 20 @ 4:20 pm

Comments

1. The test I just had takes 48 hours for the result. Wonder what test they are using?

   Comment by RNUG Monday, Jul 27, 20 @ 4:26 pm

2. It’s a rapid saliva test. https://news.illinois.edu/view/6367/2127433838

   Comment by Fairycat Monday, Jul 27, 20 @ 4:29 pm

3. It’s not high-risk people who need targeting, it’s everyone around them.

   Comment by Wensicia Monday, Jul 27, 20 @ 4:30 pm

4. Here I thought UIUC was an engineering school, and math eludes them here?

   #STEM

   Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Jul 27, 20 @ 4:34 pm

5. The logistics of trying to get college students to take the test alone at that level is just nuts.

   Comment by ArchPundit Monday, Jul 27, 20 @ 4:34 pm

6. Super quick and easy test. Maybe 2 minutes to bop in to spit in a tube, and I had my negative result within 5 hours.

   UIUC is using a risk-based approach to testing. If you are in large classes, visited recent hotspots, or have interacted with lots of people, you will receive a push to an app directing you to get tested. If you are mostly in online classes away from others, you might only get tested every few weeks.

   Also, a not insignificant chunk of those 61k students and staff will not be on campus.

   Comment by thechampaignlife Monday, Jul 27, 20 @ 4:38 pm

7. Pooled testing with 4 person pools might make the math work.

   They need to make sure that results come back quickly. That might mean taking fewer samples so there is no logjam.

   Comment by Last Bull Moose Monday, Jul 27, 20 @ 4:39 pm

8. ===The logistics of trying to get college students to take the test alone at that level is just nuts.===

   Advertise it as a toga party with free liquor.

   Comment by Cubs in '16 Monday, Jul 27, 20 @ 4:40 pm

9. Just spit balling here, I bet the chemist and epidemologist didn’t talk to each other. Requirements and current capabilities not viewed on the same page. Oops.

   Comment by From DaZoo Monday, Jul 27, 20 @ 4:42 pm

10. I’m gonna give them a bit of credit here. They are not requiring 2x week testing (and herding college students is worse than herding cats - maybe bribe them with free food?), but they have a plan, and even created their own test. As a parent of college-age students this is well above and beyond what I’m hearing from other institutions.

    Comment by Ron Burgundy Monday, Jul 27, 20 @ 4:46 pm

11. I’m happy my kids graduated from UIUC, but this does give me pause. Perhaps not the accomplishment I thought it was. On a happier note Fauci still says vaccine by end of year possible. Hope that comes to pass.

    Comment by SSL Monday, Jul 27, 20 @ 4:47 pm

12. To be fair it was not the math department that released this.

    Comment by DuPage Saint Monday, Jul 27, 20 @ 4:51 pm

13. Unfortunately the regionals are all following UIUC’s lead about whether or not to go full online. It’s nice that UIUC has (supposedly) the capacity to do mass testing twice a week. The regionals certainly don’t.

    Comment by MSIX Monday, Jul 27, 20 @ 5:04 pm

14. OW - UIUC is a land grant university and started as an ag school. Engineering came later. Even so, basic math must have eluded even the farmers of the university.

    Comment by Huh? Monday, Jul 27, 20 @ 5:11 pm

15. I did the test drive through in rolling meadows 2 weeks ago. Still waiting for a results call…testing without results wont help anyone..

    Comment by Woodstock willy Monday, Jul 27, 20 @ 5:26 pm

16. Test all you want once you bring college kids back to college towns your going to have spread if its present at the school. The kids going out and socializing will happen. Its college and they have been all locked up at home with parents.

    The question is will it overrun the hospitals from others obtaining the virus. Thats the real question as school is happening and testing will be overrun no matter what.

    Comment by The Dude Monday, Jul 27, 20 @ 6:03 pm

17. There is only one contact tracer from McDonough Health Department for WIU.
    I don’t think I would benefit from a degree at a place that wants to create outbreaks during the worst pandemic in over a,century.

    Comment by Not a Billionaire Monday, Jul 27, 20 @ 6:57 pm

18. That’s far better than the school I work at, 45 minutes up I-74 to the northwest. We have no testing plan, but we’re opening to 20,000 students in a couple weeks. We’ll be online within a month of school starting. Mark my words.

    Comment by Higher? Ed Monday, Jul 27, 20 @ 8:37 pm

19. at least a plan is being discussed, 1000x better than what the whitehouse has done so far

    Comment by truthteller Tuesday, Jul 28, 20 @ 7:33 am

20. Far better plan then the healtcare prof school I teach at. The university that gave us the LED, first graphic internet web browser and the MRI at least has a plan. Proud to be an alum

    Comment by illdoc Tuesday, Jul 28, 20 @ 8:01 am

21. Apparently simple arithmetic is an old concept at the ‘higher level’.

    a UofIL alum

    Comment by sal-says Tuesday, Jul 28, 20 @ 8:09 am

22. My daughter’s small college in Massachusetts has committed to testing each student twice a week for the first 3-4 weeks and weekly after. Its population, however, is only 4K

    Comment by Patricia Tuesday, Jul 28, 20 @ 9:30 am

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