Latest Post | Last 10 Posts | Archives
Previous Post: Legislative Black Caucus unveils fall legislative agenda
Next Post: Harmon’s formal response to federal subpoena shows he had basically no records to submit
Posted in:
* Politico has a good roundup today of the House Republican seats currently in play…
Republican Rep. Allen Skillicorn recently toyed with stepping aside this election season — but he told Playbook over the weekend that he’s still in the race. His waffling about running has tripped up his momentum, making the 66th District seat ripe for Democratic challenger Suzanne Ness to pick off.
The rematch in the 54th District between Republican Rep. Tom Morrison and Democratic challenger Maggie Trevor is expected to go Democrat this time. Morrison only barely won in 2018. And Palatine is likely to support Joe Biden for president.
Republican Rep. Grant Wehrli faces Democratic challenger Janet Yang Rohr. Their 41st District encompasses Naperville, a suburb that shifted Democrat in 2018 — and saw Congresswoman Lauren Underwood defeat a longtime Republican.
Ditto Rep. Deanne Mazzochi, a 47th District Republican from DuPage County, which is also leaning Democrat. Mazzochi won by just over 1,500 votes in 2018 and this time the Democrat, Jennifer Zordani, has strong party backing.
Republican Rep. Brad Stephens is in a tight race against Dem challenger Michelle Darbro, an EMT and firefighter backed by Madigan. Stephens will do well in Rosemont (where he’s also the mayor) but he’ll get clobbered in the Chicago area that’s part of the 20th District.
Rep. Amy Grant is in jeopardy of losing her 42nd District seat to progressive Ken Mejia-Beal.
Democrats also think they can defeat Republican Reps. John Cabello, Steve Reick, Norine Hammond, and Dan Ugaste, though GOP insiders expect the races to hinge on whether their GOP-leaning districts back Trump this time around.
And Republicans hope to flip the 116th District: Republican David Friess, an attorney, vs. the recently appointed Dem Rep. Nathan Reitz; 111th District: Republican Amy Elik vs. Democratic Rep. Monica Bristow (Republicans lost by 356 votes to Bristow two years ago); and the 112th District that has Republican Lisa Ciampoli challenging Democratic Rep. Katie Stuart.
I think there are more, but that’ll do for now.
Thoughts?
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Sep 8, 20 @ 10:34 am
Sorry, comments are closed at this time.
Previous Post: Legislative Black Caucus unveils fall legislative agenda
Next Post: Harmon’s formal response to federal subpoena shows he had basically no records to submit
WordPress Mobile Edition available at alexking.org.
powered by WordPress.
“Thoughts?”
Our house Target list always includes cat litter and laundry detergent.
– MrJM
Comment by @misterjayem Tuesday, Sep 8, 20 @ 10:39 am
No surprise Politico thinks every Republican seat is in jeopardy despite all the indictments of Democrats
Lori Lightfoot lecturing about not erasing history while on vacation in Maine after authorizing statue removals that do exactly that is comedy gold
Comment by Lucky Pierre Tuesday, Sep 8, 20 @ 10:40 am
Republicans will have earned every bit of the slaughter they’re in for in 2020.
Comment by AlfondoGonz Tuesday, Sep 8, 20 @ 10:42 am
=== No surprise Politico thinks every Republican seat is in jeopardy despite all the indictments of Democrats===
Lemme guess, you think it’ll be seats gained for the Raunerites?
It’s too early to be imbibing at such a rate.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 8, 20 @ 10:44 am
So… three Dem seats are on the list, and Grant Wehrli, in Naperville, is on the list too.
I’m not shocked “downstate” seats are in play for Raunerites, but if you’re losing even more seats in DuPage, in Naperville, to Dems… what exactly are Raunerites winning?
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 8, 20 @ 10:46 am
How many Raunerites are under Federal indictment?
Comment by Lucky Pierre Tuesday, Sep 8, 20 @ 10:48 am
Insiders are saying privately that HRO and the entire operation is not only broke, but highly disorganized.
That the Rauner money made many of the suburban GOP incumbents lazy to non-existent on the fundraising front is coming home to roost. Trump also an anchor in many suburban Districts.
8-10 seat loss for House GOP not out of the question.
Comment by Upon Further Review Tuesday, Sep 8, 20 @ 10:48 am
=== How many Raunerites are under Federal indictment?===
That’s not the question, but I’ll ask how inept is your Raunerite mindset that it’s likely the Raunerites will lose ground (again) to Dems with none under indictment?
I get Wehrli, he’s admitted he’s an ineffective legislator, indictments or not.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 8, 20 @ 10:58 am
Skilly,Zock and Whirls will be especially will be especially tough to defend. SKilly wanted to quit, but locals wanted to replace him with the wrong person. Zock is still in the never ending COD disaster and some tapped phone calls and Whirls — still no local base. Unknown in district. TTFN
Comment by Annonin' Tuesday, Sep 8, 20 @ 11:00 am
I think that is called a super-duper majority.
It is great that the man leading the controlling party is under federal investigation, but the other party is so weak that they solicit the help of ex-con Governor from the other party.
As Illinois turns…
Comment by Mr. Hand Tuesday, Sep 8, 20 @ 11:07 am
The Illinois Democratic party is up to it’s neck in Federal investigations but their electoral prospects for Fall are all seashells and balloons, right OW?
Comment by Lucky Pierre Tuesday, Sep 8, 20 @ 11:09 am
=== The Illinois Democratic party is up to it’s neck in Federal investigations but their electoral prospects for Fall are all seashells and balloons===
If you and the polls say so… lol
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 8, 20 @ 11:20 am
All alone…
=== The Illinois Democratic party is up to it’s neck in Federal investigations but their electoral prospects for Fall are all seashells and balloons===
That’s more of an indictment on how inept and how grossly embarrassing the Raunerite leadership is at the state party level, and why the Raunerites are so broke they can’t even pay attention.
I try to help them. They keep Raunerites in leadership, and ignore the damage they did with Bruce, so much damage trust that should be easily transferred away from Dems won’t be.
I’m embarrassed for you that you think things are going swimmingly for Raunerites with these indictments, but if you can’t see the continued damage Rauner has put upon the party, maybe losing more seats this time might clear your head.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 8, 20 @ 11:25 am
Chairman Tim revamp the turnaround agenda platform, or embrace it
Comment by Rabid Tuesday, Sep 8, 20 @ 11:26 am
How is Batinick not mentioned on this list.
Or is it already expected for him to lose by a large margin.
Comment by TheInvisibleMan Tuesday, Sep 8, 20 @ 11:29 am
=== embrace it===
It’s a failed agenda. Not moving on from Raunerism (and admitting that mistake in the first place) won’t bring back trade labor, teachers, suburban moms, and being old, angry, rural, and white won’t bring any diversity necessary to win the collars again.
I can’t help them if they keep wanting the Eastern Bloc as their voice.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 8, 20 @ 11:30 am
Ozinga is replacing McDermott, Laura Hois is going up against underfunded Stava-Murray, and Breen is going for Round Two against TCH. I’d most most notable though is Seth Lewis against Diane Pappas. Lewis ran for State Senate against Cullerton, and came up short twice but won HD #45 both times. That alone is something notable. Chris Bos is going up against Eddly-Allen - a 2018 lost because the GOP candidate was too extreme.
Comment by Suburban Operative Tuesday, Sep 8, 20 @ 11:44 am
- Suburban Operative -
Breen will be interesting, but where’s the money in these races to make them, well, races?
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 8, 20 @ 11:52 am
== The Illinois Democratic party is up to it’s neck in Federal investigations but their electoral prospects for Fall are all seashells and balloons ==
Hard to believe, but true.
@Lucky, you’re like John Lovitz impersonating Mike Dukakis on that SNL debate spoof. “How am I losing to this guy?”
Comment by Roman Tuesday, Sep 8, 20 @ 11:55 am
===How is Batinick not mentioned===
Got me.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Sep 8, 20 @ 11:57 am
If that many Republicans go down this cycle looks like I will have to write in Oswego Willie next cycle
Comment by DuPage Saint Tuesday, Sep 8, 20 @ 12:03 pm
How on earth can you describe Illinois state government across the board as anything but a failed agenda?
Their budget was unbalanced before Covid and now their plan is 100% based on a huge Federal bailout.
Where are the bright spots?
Comment by Lucky Pierre Tuesday, Sep 8, 20 @ 12:13 pm
=I get Wehrli, he’s admitted he’s an ineffective legislator, indictments or not.=
If a Wherli falls in the woods, does he make a sound?
=seashells and balloons,=
Lol, tell me about your polling please.
=It’s a failed agenda.=
And yet, their general response is to yell louder. Mystifying. The ILDP should be pretty vulnerable yet they are getting stronger. How much of a rejection do the republicans need to maybe give this a rethink?
Comment by JS Mill Tuesday, Sep 8, 20 @ 12:16 pm
=== Where are the bright spots?===
For the Dems? Multiple seat pickups.
===Their budget was unbalanced===
Rauner signed a budget, yet you supported him. Why?
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 8, 20 @ 12:32 pm
fundraising
Correct me if I’m wrong but didn’t the pattern used to be that the legislative leaders did the heavy weight lifting on fundraising? That’s why the members were called mushrooms? And why shell bills were created that the legislative leaders negotiated to fill in later?
Well I agree that was a bad model, but doesn’t it basically show how inept Durkin is? Of course given how well he did fundraising during his Senate run this ought not to be a surprise to anyone.
Comment by Fav human Tuesday, Sep 8, 20 @ 12:52 pm
Democrats own.
Comment by Blue Dog Dem Tuesday, Sep 8, 20 @ 1:58 pm
=== Democrats own.===
How can you vote for Trump with 190,000 deaths?
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 8, 20 @ 2:10 pm
=Democrats own.=
The President of the United States takes no responsibility for the handling of the largest pandemic in 100 years. Let that sink in.
Comment by Pundent Tuesday, Sep 8, 20 @ 2:19 pm
===For the Dems? Multiple seat pickups.===
Is that a bright spot for the state? I don’t see how political domination is good for democracy.
Maybe for the Dems. Sure, especially if this is a zero-sum game. It just demonstrates that we have one dominant party and one that is inept.
Comment by Mr. Hand Tuesday, Sep 8, 20 @ 3:06 pm
=== we have one dominant party and one that is inept.===
Made solely for Raunerism, then became an old, angry, rural, white party.
I can’t help that.
It’s a bright spot that with a diverse state Illinois doesn’t turn into a state run by those so close minded and unwelcoming.
When they’re ready to change…
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 8, 20 @ 3:19 pm
The Rauner Effect keeps on giving. He couldn’t play, so he took his ball (or cash) with him.
==When they’re ready to change…==
An opportunity for the Repubs to rebrand is there, but they need leaders and acknowledge there is this virus thing out there.
Comment by Mr. Hand Tuesday, Sep 8, 20 @ 3:33 pm
It just goes to show OW that the Democrats that run this state and their voters aren’t that bright. Large majorities and they continually vote for the folks that bankrupted the state. Even if they pass the Unfair tax the money it will raise still leaves the state bankrupt and corrupt.
Comment by Really Tuesday, Sep 8, 20 @ 3:37 pm
=== their voters aren’t that bright.===
Calling possible voters “not that bright” won’t bring them to your side.
I hope you don’t get paid for that analysis, lol
=== bankrupted the state===
States can’t go bankrupt. I guess you’re not that bright either.
=== Unfair tax the money it will raise still leaves the state bankrupt and corrupt.===
Wear a mask, that type of mouth breathing is super-spreader worthy
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 8, 20 @ 3:42 pm
=It just demonstrates that we have one dominant party and one that is inept.=
Their seems to be a cause and effect relationship at play here.
Comment by Pundent Tuesday, Sep 8, 20 @ 3:43 pm
===Their seems to be a cause and effect relationship at play here.====
What comes first; the chicken or the egg?
One time my 6th grade city-league would of won the championship, if it wasn’t for that ref. Just saying.
Comment by Mr. Hand Tuesday, Sep 8, 20 @ 4:19 pm
=== One time my 6th grade city-league would of won the championship, if it wasn’t for that ref. Just saying.===
LOL
Who exactly is the ref in this?
Quickly, don’t google, who were the Raunerites that ran last time for SoS, Treasurer, and Comptroller.
Your team might’ve won if they first showed up and then fielded a competitive team, lol
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Sep 8, 20 @ 4:22 pm
Well, the Democrats, if this POLITICO hit list is accurate, will raise their supermajority in the House to as many as 80 or more. Guess when House Speaker Mike Madigan turns 80 in spring of 2022, he’ll have as many, or more Democrats in his House caucus(?).
Just think, Reick (63rd) and Ugaste (65th) must depend on their constituents turning out for Jim Oberweis to save their seats.
Curious what the state Senate list will look like. Many believe the Democrat Senate supermajority will grow from its current 41, beginning with the Oberweis seat (25th).
Comment by John Lopez Tuesday, Sep 8, 20 @ 6:07 pm
Illinois Republican Party- the new micro-party
Comment by JS Mill Tuesday, Sep 8, 20 @ 6:08 pm
Looks like Bailey’s takeover of the GOP is likely going to be even easier after November.
Comment by SIUEalum Tuesday, Sep 8, 20 @ 7:32 pm