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Governor’s office again tries to shoot down Metro East conspiracy theory

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Executive Director at St Clair County HD admitted negative test results are not factored into positivity rate

The video below shows a question and answer to what is going on with the bad math on the positivity rate.

Barb Hohlt, executive director at St Clair County health department basically says no the negatives aren’t counted. You can hear her answer to the question at 18:35.

Here we go again.

* From the referenced video…

Q: Is it true that private testing companies are not required to report negative results to the state of Illinois? And if that’s the case does it screw up our numbers?

A: In the state of Illinois, all labs are required to report positive cases of communicable disease to the local health department, the positive cases. The majority of the labs in Illinois report to what we call the ELR - Electronic Lab Reporting System. The majority of them do, especially the larger ones that do the majority of testing in Illinois. Our friends across the river and here at Memorial, BJC is working on becoming a part of that electronic lab recording system. So when we do our daily stats for St Clair County, we get a separate report from BJC that we report in our daily stats, along with the ones that we get through ELR from IDPH. But our daily reports are as accurate as they can be. Because they’re measured on the actual lab report, positive or negative, that we get into our health department. So those are the ones we were acting upon but again those positive ones are all reported, are they’re negative ones that aren’t? That is true. We’re trying to work on that to get everyone into the ER system.

Q: Barb, you’re not just sitting there, the health department’s not just sitting there waiting for information to come in. All of your people are out working hard, mining this information every day to put forth the most accurate number possible. So you’re grabbing numbers from everywhere and putting them in a system to get this number that we talk about every day, which is you proudly say is the most accurate number that you can get on St. Clair County’s positivity rate.

A: Absolutely. Every single day, seven days a week we have staff that are working on what’s coming in as paper reports and fax reports, and what’s coming in through the [garbled] computer system, and on a daily basis we call long term care facilities to get their updates as well. And we gather the most current up information we can every single day. So those are the numbers we report to you.

* Jordan Abudayyeh from the governor’s office…

We don’t use positives that are not on the ELR system to calculate regional positivity rates. We only report data when we have complete sets. People who report positives manually are not counted towards a region’s positivity rate. IT’S NOT ROCKET SCIENCE.

To be clear, this was not an “official” response. We were texting about the situation and there was no groundrule set about off or on the record.

posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Sep 25, 20 @ 9:04 am

Comments

O no, he said SCIENCE!

Comment by Bigtwich Friday, Sep 25, 20 @ 9:07 am
If my 16 year old can understand this, I’m not sure I feel great about elected officials having such hard time with such a basic concept.

Comment by Fixer Friday, Sep 25, 20 @ 9:11 am
=== IT’S NOT ROCKET SCIENCE.===

If you know anyone who studies the science of rockets or aerospace, they don’t speak this plainly on math-y things… or the simplicity to this.

Willfully ignorant? Blissfully unaware?

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Sep 25, 20 @ 9:13 am
=If my 16 year old can understand this, I’m not sure I feel great about elected officials having such hard time with such a basic concept=

The problem is its the County Health directors of both Madison and St. Clair counties saying this.

Comment by AndyIllini Friday, Sep 25, 20 @ 9:15 am
===and St. Clair counties saying this===

Not really. Read the full quote.

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Sep 25, 20 @ 9:18 am
We’re living in an era where conspiracy theories get equal billing with facts. Crazy ideas are treated as credible and if they reinforce preconceived notions they’re considered to be the truth. So none of this should surprise us.

Comment by Pundent Friday, Sep 25, 20 @ 9:20 am
Fixer, looks like we need your 16 year old to take over for these folks.

The problem is that they’re not trying to understand. They are following the GOP adopted Trumpian model of using conspiracy theories and misinformation for political benefit.

Comment by Norseman Friday, Sep 25, 20 @ 9:21 am
Well I am no rocket scientist, but it sounds like there are both negative and positive test results that are not considered when calculating the positivity rate. If that is true, then the positivity rate is neither accurate or representative of reality.

Comment by Captain Obvious Friday, Sep 25, 20 @ 9:21 am
Captain Obvious - you should have stopped at the first comma. There is no reason to believe that the labs that aren’t using ELR are experiencing different results from the ones that are, so using only the ELR lab results to estimate positivity IS representative.

Comment by Rasselas Friday, Sep 25, 20 @ 9:25 am
I get that the Govs Office is tired, but the condescending answer is what gets to people. People’s lives are being upended right now due to somewhat arbitrary rules (each state decides their own) and sarcasm from a public servant isn’t needed at this time.

Comment by Real Defender Friday, Sep 25, 20 @ 9:29 am
=== but the condescending answer is what gets to people===

What gets to me is willfully ignorant people.

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Sep 25, 20 @ 9:34 am
=== People’s lives are being upended right now due to somewhat arbitrary rules (each state decides their own)===

Your beef in that is with President Trump, not the Governor.

Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Sep 25, 20 @ 9:39 am
All the best conspiracy theories are based in just enough truth, so the loons can say “See, I told you so”
The really great ones don’t need any truth. Just repeat them often enough.
That is proved everyday in DC.

Comment by Bruce( no not him) Friday, Sep 25, 20 @ 9:46 am
What’s worse than ignorant people are ignorant,desperate and bankrupt people.

Comment by Blue Dog Dem Friday, Sep 25, 20 @ 9:55 am
Sounds like they’re going to need Morgan Freeman to explain this to them

Comment by Drake Mallard Friday, Sep 25, 20 @ 10:00 am
Samuel L. Jackson might get the point across better.

Comment by Jibba Friday, Sep 25, 20 @ 10:13 am
“Samuel L. Jackson might get the point across better.” Chuck Norris or the Office Linebacker might also be good choices.

Comment by Skeptic Friday, Sep 25, 20 @ 10:21 am
Just curious on how many CapFax posters have missed a paycheck due to the pandemic. I for one haven’t missed a lick, and thank God each and every day. I have great compassion for those struggling to survive and I will forgive those who have to do what they need to do to put food on their table.

Comment by Blue Dog Dem Friday, Sep 25, 20 @ 10:22 am
===do what they need to do to put food on their table.===

Almost without fail, the loudest complaints and conspiracy theories I have seen are form people who are angry that the world of the past is no longer the world of the present. They aren’t working to put food on their tables. They are angry they can’t go out bar hopping.

Spreading conspiracy theories doesn’t put food on the table.

Comment by TheInvisibleMan Friday, Sep 25, 20 @ 10:25 am
== I get that the Govs Office is tired, but the condescending answer is what gets to people. People’s lives are being upended right now due to somewhat arbitrary rules (each state decides their own) and sarcasm from a public servant isn’t needed at this time.==
Sarcasm? You mean saying it’s not rocket science? Well, it isn’t rocket science.

Comment by Two to tango Friday, Sep 25, 20 @ 10:27 am
==I for one haven’t missed a lick, and thank God each and every day. ==

BDD, I too have not missed a lick but I can’t say I share your giddiness regarding these potential budget cuts. Those already hurting people you seem to care about are the same ones who will be seriously hurt if those huge cuts take place.

Comment by don the legend Friday, Sep 25, 20 @ 10:38 am
@ OW = Your beef in that is with President Trump, not the Governor. =

This everyday.

I saw this coming a few months ago… now I know people who are just “over it”. Well IT’S not over. Be safe in how you operate and it will be closer to over.

@Blue Dog - Haven’t missed a regular everyday check. But side hustle money has dried up. Missing out on many thousands of dollars this year.

Comment by Cool Papa Bell Friday, Sep 25, 20 @ 10:41 am
== I get that the Govs Office is tired, but the condescending answer is what gets to people. ==

Alternatively, copy/pasting a casual text that may never have been intended as an official statement is a great way to not get good access in the future.

Comment by Homebody Friday, Sep 25, 20 @ 10:41 am
Don. Not necessarily advocating cuts, but I would like to see the list, so I can weigh the pros and cons.

Comment by Blue Dog Dem Friday, Sep 25, 20 @ 10:42 am
Cool Papa. I am appalled that you might not be paying your fair share. But I understand.

Comment by Blue Dog Dem Friday, Sep 25, 20 @ 10:45 am
===Alternatively, copy/pasting a casual text that may never have been intended as an official statement is a great way to not get good access in the future. ===

LOLOL

Let me worry about that. Go back to whatever you do.

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Sep 25, 20 @ 10:48 am
=somewhat arbitrary rules (each state decides their own) and sarcasm from a public servant isn’t needed at this time.=

A lot to unpack from such a short segment.

Trump is responsible for the chaotic and inconsistent responses. He could have put his people into action and provided a cohesive federal response bringing the full force of the federal government into effect rather than simply give everyone money. This is one area where the federal government is better positioned and equipped to handle the response. He didn’t.

If you are so offended by the mild sarcasm you must be inconsolable when Trump speaks.

And it isn’t rocket science, they gave a succinct explanation that anyone that an average person can understand.

Because someone doesn’t like the answer doesn’t mean it isn’t correct and with conspiracy.

Comment by JS Mill Friday, Sep 25, 20 @ 11:04 am
- great way to not get good access in the future. -

Jordan isn’t Anthony Scaramucci, she knows how things work.

Comment by Excitable Boy Friday, Sep 25, 20 @ 11:04 am
BDD, thanks for clarifying.

Comment by don the legend Friday, Sep 25, 20 @ 11:19 am
===I will forgive those who have to do what they need to do to put food on their table===

I can forgive this, but this is not the main trouble. Much spreading is happening needlessly inside restaurants and bars, and by people not wearing masks when they are out. Many of these folks are sickening and killing in the name of politics disguised as freedom. They also selfishly prolonging the outbreak, so those of us who are sheltering must do it for much longer than needed. I can’t forgive any of that.

Comment by Jibba Friday, Sep 25, 20 @ 11:49 am
Actually, the sarcasm is needed at this time, because attempting to educate the willfully ignorant won’t work, so maybe sarcasm will penetrate their DUH Shields. I’m surprised some public health official hasn’t gone much, much further like “Put a **** mask on so you don’t kill somebody else, and stop whining about the freedom you claim to have to do so. Enough.” (Substitute banned punctuation for periods in sentences for full effect).

Comment by thisjustin Friday, Sep 25, 20 @ 1:03 pm
If you have to respond to questions and criticisms in all caps, you aren’t doing a very good job of communicating.

Comment by essentially working Friday, Sep 25, 20 @ 1:08 pm
Maybe - some of these conspiracy theorists should have read the methodology used section of IDPH’s web site regarding regional mitigation. None of this has been a secret and no, it ain’t rocket science. Now Schimpf wants a hearing so he can “get these people on record” because he knows what they allegedly told him and are now denying? Really?

Comment by DownSouth Friday, Sep 25, 20 @ 1:27 pm