Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar

The Republicans have another weapon as powerful as “Madigan”

Posted in:

Illinois
Polls
Updated Posts

* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…

It’s well known that the Illinois House Republicans (along with pretty much all Illinois Republicans) are using House Speaker Michael Madigan’s bad reputation to bludgeon their Democratic opponents.

Madigan has been enormously unpopular in Illinois. And he’s probably more unpopular now because he’s been in the news so much during the long federal investigation into ComEd and the company’s resulting deferred prosecution agreement with the U.S. attorney in Chicago.

A special Illinois House investigating committee has been impaneled to take testimony about the federal probe and consider whether to discipline Madigan for “conduct unbecoming a legislator,” which is helping to keep him in the news.

Add the more recent news about Democratic Rep. Stephanie Kifowit’s announcement last week that she will run against Madigan for speaker in January, and it’s been a complete media circus for the longtime pol.

Kifowit has not yet identified any allies and isn’t exactly an odds-on favorite to defeat Madigan. She’s votes more conservative than many in the House Democratic caucus. She was the only House “present” vote on the minimum wage increase bill and she hired a public relations person who is raising money for the Republican opponent of Cook County State’s Attorney Kim Foxx. That puts her at odds with her party, the Black Caucus and labor unions that fund the Democrats.

But the mere fact that she stood up and announced her bid is an indication that Madigan’s political strength is not what it used to be.

Anyway, the last time the Paul Simon Public Policy Institute polled Speaker Madigan’s job approval rating was last year. It found 71% disapproved of the way Madigan did his job while only 20% approved — a 51-point difference.

Those results weren’t all that different from the same poll’s question on whether Illinoisans supported a new state tax on retirement income. Seventy-three percent opposed it while 23 percent supported — a 50-point margin.

Normally, opposition to a retirement income tax is an easy layup for Illinois legislators in both parties. Just score some no-brainer points with the folks back home and move on to the next question.

But some brainiacs always want to start a “discussion,” and it often blows up in their faces.

This time, it’s blowing up in others’ faces.

“One thing a progressive tax would do is make clear you can have graduated rates when you are taxing retirement income,” Treasurer Michael Frerichs, a Democrat, told the Daily Herald back in June. “And, I think that’s something that’s worth discussion.”

Frerichs’ quote has opened the door to House Republican attack mailers in numerous districts against Democrats who voted “Yes” on the graduated income tax last year and also against Democratic House candidates in general.

“Mary Edly-Allen supports the tax hike amendment,” one recent HGOP mailer exclaimed about the freshman Democratic state Representative from Libertyville. “Her Springfield pals admit the amendment would open the door to a brand-new tax on retirement income. That means your pension, your 401(k) plan, and your retirement plan would be taxed and sent straight to Springfield.”

The mailers are being sent to other districts (Metro East and Southern Illinois, for example) where the tax is also not polling great. But, said one House Republican source of the tax issue, “We’re talking about that everywhere.”

The mailers have the added benefit of ginning up opposition to Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s “Fair Tax” constitutional amendment, which House Republican Leader Jim Durkin has vowed to defeat. So, it’s a twofer.

“Politician Janet Yang Rohr wants to tax your retirement income,” another Republican mailer warns about Rep. Grant Wehrli’s, R-Naperville, Democratic opponent.

“Yang Rohr is backing the graduated income tax. This plan would not only raise taxes on the middle class, but also on retirees. The state treasurer has admitted this is a tax on retirees. There’s no question that ordinary people will suffer. Protect your retirement. Vote ‘No’ on Janet Yang Rohr.”

To be fair, if Treasurer Frerichs hadn’t said what he said, the Republicans would’ve found another way to make the same argument. But Frerichs did make their easier.

And Pritzker can’t really complain about taking somebody’s mention of a graduated tax on retirement income and twisting it into an attack on all retirement income taxation because he did the very same thing in the 2018 Democratic primary. His top two Democratic opponents, Chris Kennedy and Daniel Biss, both tentatively supported a tax on upper-income retirees, but Pritzker distorted that into TV ads claiming the two wanted to tax all retirement income.

Karma can be problematic.

…Adding… From Rep. Kifowit…

Good afternoon Rich, I had a busy Monday but I wanted to address some points you made in your post.

First, the public relations person that you reference in your post took time out of her dedication to making masks for her community to help facilitate my announcement. Due to a technological glitch in my Facebook live stream, she accepted a friend request from you to allow you to see the FB live stream on her page. It is disappointing that you would review her page and attribute her private views as a reflection of my record. In a democracy, private citizens are allowed to have different views. In this case, while I do not share this same view as hers, I appreciated her willingness to assist me with the announcement.

After my first year in office, I ended being on the “target program” which included the watch list (otherwise known as the watch chart or target list) which often listed IL House Black Caucus members’ bills as being “soft on crime” and intimidated “targets” to vote no. Since then, I have offered my support to I believe almost all, if not all, of the bills proposed by members of the IL House Black Caucus and I have spoken out about the need to end institutional racism without any time to reflect. As Speaker, I will eliminate the watch chart and the intimidation that is incorporated against new members to vote in accordance with it, and work with members to vote for the best interest of their districts and their views.

In addition, my labor voting record is solid. You mention the minimum wage bill, which I voted present on, as a feeble attempt to again sow division. I have a long-standing promise to my residents to not vote for legislation that is rushed through the process. I believe in our democratic system, and I hold fast that there should be constructive debate and discussion with regards to legislation, and the minimum wage bill in particular I had some concerns with. I was told there would be no changes to the bill - so while I did support raising the minimum wage, the manner in which the bill was presented was the reason I voted present.

As Speaker, I do believe that working together and treating members with respect on all manners is so important to our system of government. To have a separate and equal branch of government gives rise to a higher standard of integrity and a proper check and balance that our founding fathers established. When we stray from our principals, is when the public loses faith in our state.

Thank you,
Stephanie Kifowit

The PR person didn’t just facilitate the Facebook video, she sent out media alerts and a press release.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Oct 5, 20 @ 2:48 am

Comments

The ILGOP is just like a gambling addict, chasing losses right down the drain by ceaselessly attacking Madigan. They cudgel Madigan and the club bounces back and hits them instead.

Comment by Grandson of Man Monday, Oct 5, 20 @ 8:03 am
30 days to election. Partisan lies left and right.

Comment by walker Monday, Oct 5, 20 @ 9:17 am
Well, there is the LONG history of legislators and the Governor saying one thing, and doing the other.

“toll free by” NOT TRUE.

“Lottery will go totally to the school” They didn’t say they’d cut other support.

“less than 3% will see a tax increase” - ????

Kind of easy to see how you can easily raise a lot of doubt (or FUD, if you prefer)

Comment by Fav Human Monday, Oct 5, 20 @ 9:31 am
It’s weird that we simultaneously expect our elected officials to do the right thing — the hard thing — despite the median voter supporting lower taxes and higher spending on education and health care at the same time. And when anyone mentions the glaringly obvious: our pension debt is beyond absurdly high and our largest giveaway with very little economic benefit is subsidizing six-figure retirement income while hammering the minimum wage worker with a flat tax we call them brainiacs or naive or otherwise aggressively attack them.

For, you know, stating the obvious.

Tough to see how we get out of the increasing debt load if we can’t even *mention* the absurd consequences of subsidizing six figure pension income.

I think the Treasurer deserves credit for leading. And I think we should expect more of our leaders than pandering to maintain our least effective and most expensive subsidy.

I imagine it will cost us close to $2 billion a year as more and more retire this decade. That’s a lot of money. And….for…..what?

Comment by Dan Johnson Monday, Oct 5, 20 @ 9:39 am
We already tax retirement income. Roth accounts are included in your AGI that passes through to the IL 1040.

Comment by thechampaignlife Monday, Oct 5, 20 @ 9:40 am
We already tax retirement income

But not pensions. I am not sure if IRA withdrawal and annuities are taxed or not.

Comment by Fav Human Monday, Oct 5, 20 @ 10:03 am
How is not taxing retirement income not unconstitutional to begin with? Isn’t setting retirement income at 0% and everyone else at 4.95% go against our constitution?

“A tax on or measured by income shall be at a
non-graduated rate.”

Has this been challenged in court?

Comment by Person 8 Monday, Oct 5, 20 @ 10:19 am
A tax on or measured by income shall be at a
non-graduated rate.”

The key is how you define income. Earned or not

Comment by Fav Human Monday, Oct 5, 20 @ 11:03 am
== We already tax retirement income. Roth accounts are included in your AGI that passes through to the IL 1040. ==

Not true. Not Social Security. Not Pensions. Not IRA distributions. Not 401K / 457 / etc. distributions. None of it is currently taxed in Illinois if it comes from a Federally recognized retirement account.

Comment by RNUG Monday, Oct 5, 20 @ 11:16 am
Are you sure RNUG? I don’t remember seeing a Roth deduction on IL tax forms? Remember you pay tax up front for Roth 401k.

Comment by Annoyed Monday, Oct 5, 20 @ 12:12 pm
@RNUG

You are correct that retirement ===income=== (i.e., distributions/withdrawals) is never taxed in Illinois. It is deducted from the Fed AGI on IL 1040 Line 5, or in the case of Roth distributions it is excluded from income on the Fed 1040 (and therefore the IL 1040).

Traditional IRA/401K/457/pension/etc ===contributions=== (i.e., savings/deferrals) are also never taxed in Illinois because they are deducted on the Fed 1040 which passes through as your AGI to the IL 1040.

However, Roth IRA/401K/etc ===contributions=== are included in your AGI that passes through to the IL 1040, and there is no deduction on the IL 1040 form for it. The instructions for IL 1040 Line 5, as well as IL Rev Pub 120, clearly state that retirement plan ===income=== is deductible, but a contribution is not income. Conversions from Traditional to Roth are deductible, but not a direct contribution to Roth. Savvy tax planners call this the Illinois Backdoor Roth: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=276494

Comment by thechampaignlife Monday, Oct 5, 20 @ 12:33 pm
== Remember you pay tax up front for Roth 401k. ==

Yes, you do. And you pay state income tax on it because that is the way a Roth works. I clearly said DISTRIBUTIONS are not taxed … and that is a true statement.

Comment by RNUG Monday, Oct 5, 20 @ 12:56 pm
===We already tax retirement income.===

Clearly I am conflating the terms myself. The important takeaway is that if I place $1000 in a non-Roth retirement account and then take it out later, I never pay IL income tax on that $1000. Not going in, not coming out.

If I place that same $1000 into a Roth account, I pay $49.50 in IL income tax going in. Effectively, my retirement savings have been taxed, but only on this subset of retirement accounts, and likely not intentionally. That is unfair.

To amend this inequity, I sarcastically offer the Illinois Backdoor Retirement Savings Tax: Treat all retirement contributions as taxable, and keep all retirement distributions tax deductible. Then you can say retirement income is still tax exempt, and current retirees are unaffected, while young savers are hit with the bill.

Comment by thechampaignlife Monday, Oct 5, 20 @ 1:31 pm
The anti-madigan stuff is working. A friend of mine over the weekend asked me who he should vote for. He said, “I know I have to vote against Madigan.” I had to explain to him that he cannot vote against Madigan because he doesn’t live in Madigan’s district.

Comment by Unionman Monday, Oct 5, 20 @ 1:38 pm
=== The anti-madigan stuff is working.===

LOL, Grant Wehrli, is that you?

=== A friend of mine over the weekend…===

Anecdotal is not data. What, you’re friend is going to put the gavel in Durkin’s hands? Durkin will be happy to be above 40 seats at this point.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Oct 5, 20 @ 4:01 pm
To the post,

I took a bunch of deep breaths, Rich has taken the news and added a truckload of real political thought and realities, and it’s really good work.

Illinois needs a two party functioning political landscape. As a state, we function best went both parties hold each other accountable and are willing “partners” to policy discussions to their difference and working to find a consensus to bipartisanship.

The Raunerites have decided that their ideas must be from the “Book of Bad Ideas”, first the continuation of “Fire Madigan” to levels of lowering the former GOP to a real irrelevance.

Now with the “taxing of retirement income”, the phony discussions away from what the mire popular “Fair Tax” is to Trump/Rauner thinking, there’s a real dishonesty to the politics, which is leading to voters continuing its rejection of Raunerites. The policy of the national party is “Trump sets the policies, we support Trump”. That *is* the platform. Here in Illinois, the reality of how truly lost to policy and politics the Raunerites are, the Eastern Bloc is poised, at a time if they’d choosing, to dictate not only the HRaunerite messaging, but Raunerism and the Raunerite Party messaging too.

I can’t help you if you insist on shrinking the party, and refusing to have policy and governing strategies that attempt to embrace majority thinking of all Illinois.

Being a regional, monolithically racial, party that refuses to see diversity in the suburbs and showing women their policy asks matter, how can Raunerites make the jump BACK to a party closer to the 1995 majority party that controlled Illinois politics and governing?

I can’t help you if you don’t acknowledge your shortfalls.

When y’all are ready to see your political acumen needs better vision and when you decide the Eastern Bloc isn’t how Illinois should hear you, lemme know. Lemme know when the Raunerites are removed, the mea culpas begin, the building of a Republican Party away from Rauner and Trump is embraced.

Lemme know, because here in Kendall, y’all are doing it so wrong that the House and Senate Sears here going more a dream, but it should be the nightmare that you can’t… you can’t compete… in Kendall.

Lemme know. I’ll be watching.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Oct 5, 20 @ 5:30 pm