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* Good stuff here…
Among their findings: negative net migration peaked in IL 2016-2017, which was:
1. During the budget impasse
2. When the state’s personal income tax rate dropped from the 5% level it was in 2015, to 3.75% during the first two years of Governor Rauner’s administration.— A.D. Quig (@ad_quig) October 14, 2020
Net out-migration also declined after the income tax was raised in 2017.
* More…
This doesn't necessarily speak to the broader question of our overall tax landscape. WSJ Edit Board says the hike would bring Illinois "into Dante’s ninth ring of tax hell, ahead of only New Jersey, New York and California" for tax competitiveness:https://t.co/5fAbah0qyF
— A.D. Quig (@ad_quig) October 14, 2020
Here's the Tax Foundation report on IL specifically. Interesting stuff. https://t.co/fiQs2fJUPW
— A.D. Quig (@ad_quig) October 14, 2020
Anyway, click here and scroll down to find the link to the full report.
* Meanwhile, the Illinois Farm Bureau has been a major opponent of the proposed graduated income tax. But here’s more from the CTBA…
61,398 farms, or 84.5% of total farms in Illinois, are considered sole proprietor farms. Of the sole proprietor farms, only 64% of those farms realized a profit. The remaining 36% of sole proprietor farms realized a loss and farms that realized losses would not owe taxes, as seen in Figure 3.
For a sole proprietor farm with a profit, the average profit was $94,084 per farm.
In Illinois, about 20% of sole proprietor farms share farm profits and losses among 2 or more households.[ix] This is important because it means that even when an average sole proprietor farm realizes a profit of $94,084, that profit could be shared, and each household would actually realize a profit that is less than the total farm profit.
In order to conservatively estimate how the Fair Tax compares to the current flat tax, we chose to assume that the sole proprietor farms are operating with one owner and profit per farm is not shared among multiple owners.
The average profitable sole proprietor farm would experience about $64 in tax relief and an effective tax rate of 4.88% […]
4,597 farms, or 6.3% of farms in Illinois, are considered small businesses, displayed in Figure 5. This means these 4,597 farms pay individual income taxes on the profits for each individual owner‘s share of said profits. […]
The average profit for a small business farms was $224,926 per farm. […]
The average small business farm with a profit would experience about $65 in tax relief and an effective tax rate of 4.92%
Just 5.5 percent of farms are categorized as corporate farms, and they have an average profit of $287,212 per farm, meaning the average corporate farm would pay $2,843 more in taxes.
Bottom line: The opposition to the graduated income tax among farmers, like the opposition as a whole, is being driven by a small handful of upper-income folks.
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Oct 15, 20 @ 10:31 am
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Here’s hoping that data on what is actually is being implemented wins over fear of what could be implemented. The anti-Fair Tax crowd is being smart by focusing on fear, not what this change actually does. The amount of time the Fair Tax folks are having put into “but that’s not true!” statements is making me very worried.
Comment by Montrose Thursday, Oct 15, 20 @ 11:04 am
“1.6M former IL residents moved to states like CA, MO, WI, and IA”
Not surprising. Each of those states has a lower overall tax burden for low to upper-middle income households than Illinois. Yes, even California.
Any Illinoisan can pretty much move anywhere outside NY and lower their overall tax burden. Whether that state has a graduated, flat, or no income tax, it doesn’t matter. From a tax perspective, It’s a net gain for them.
Comment by City Zen Thursday, Oct 15, 20 @ 11:32 am
This is fantastic information.
Comment by Chicago Cynic Thursday, Oct 15, 20 @ 11:43 am
== “1.6M former IL residents moved to states like CA, MO, WI, and IA”
Not surprising==
It really is surprising, considering that it peaked while your boy Bruce Rauner was cutting tax rates. It almost makes you wonder if most of those people left not because of taxes, but for other reasons entirely
Comment by Lester Holt’s Mustache Thursday, Oct 15, 20 @ 11:44 am
““1.6M former IL residents moved to states like CA, MO, WI, and IA”
Not surprising. Each of those states has a lower overall tax burden for low to upper-middle income households than Illinois. Yes, even California.
Any Illinoisan can pretty much move anywhere outside NY and lower their overall tax burden. Whether that state has a graduated, flat, or no income tax, it doesn’t matter. From a tax perspective, It’s a net gain for them.”
Or maybe, just maybe - hear me out - folks aren’t making decisions about where they move based on tax burden. Crazy. I know.
Comment by Montrose Thursday, Oct 15, 20 @ 12:01 pm
Hard to believe you have the nerve to upset the Tribbies Illinois Exodus anthem (we realize this is Crains fault, but Capt Fax is a co-conspirator)
And the Farm Bureau gets shut down too. Shucks.
Meanwhile the NOs have dragged out dark money lobbyist Andy Shaw to pimp for Griffy and the other rich
Comment by Annonin' Thursday, Oct 15, 20 @ 12:14 pm
Bottom line - opposition is being led and redd as pecked by people who are suspect of the promise trust us this time. Taxpayers have been lied to several times in the past 15 years that this next increase is all we need to stabilize the State’s finances. Why should any sane person trust Pritzker that the State won’t need more revenue then what he claims will come from only the top 3 percent of taxpayers- Common sense, history and even a simple appraisal of the States present and future revenue requirements all suggest that the Governor himself knows he like Quinn are misleading the public
Comment by Sue Thursday, Oct 15, 20 @ 12:15 pm
“Taxpayers have been lied to several times in the past 15 years that this next increase is all we need to stabilize the State’s finances.”
Actually, they were lied to when an unscrupulous governor said he could balance the budget if we let the tax hike expire.
Anyway, the farm numbers are not shocking at all. Nor is the Farm Bureau’s take. Ever talked to a Farm Bureau employee? I have talked to many. They are basically the agricultural arm of the Club for Growth. While I would generally agree that they overall want to promote all agriculture, they prioritize massive corporate operations over your average farmer.
Comment by Ducky LaMoore Thursday, Oct 15, 20 @ 12:46 pm
I’m not to worried about the farm numbers. It isn’t like anyone is going to pick up a 40 acre field and move it somewhere else.
A farmer may sell out but someone will buy the property and farm it.
Comment by Huh? Thursday, Oct 15, 20 @ 1:12 pm
I’m worried about increasing the tax on the corporate farms. What if they take their dirt to a low tax state like Mississippi? /s
Comment by Pelonski Thursday, Oct 15, 20 @ 1:14 pm
Farmers are as masterful at lowering their tax burdens as the guy in the White House.
They weren’t paying that tax in the first place and yet they will all be ready to grab more handout money from the fed’s.
Comment by Cool Papa Bell Thursday, Oct 15, 20 @ 1:33 pm
While this is pre-Rauner exodus, it is still a valid reason people leave.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-confidential-snow-population-drop-1218-biz-20141217-column.html
Comment by Anyone Remember Thursday, Oct 15, 20 @ 1:49 pm
>> Taxpayers have been lied to several times in the past 15 years that this next increase is all we need to stabilize the State’s finances.
> Actually, they were lied to when an unscrupulous governor said he could balance the budget if we let the tax hike expire.
Why not both? All I know is that I’m paying the boomers’ tab. Taxing retirement income stands a snowball’s chance in hell of passing the GA.
Comment by Michael Feltes Thursday, Oct 15, 20 @ 2:16 pm
I’ve never understood the Farm Bureau’s vehement opposition to this. Decades ago, when I was running around underneath the Dome, the Farm Bureau was a primary advocate for a graduated income tax (granted, it would be combined with a reduction in property taxes, which is the missing component here). Yet this is the proposal we have and unless a farm is very successful, they will see a reduction or no change. Very illogical in their opposition.
(As a side note, I’ve been trying to recall what the Farm Bureau labeled their tax swap proposal was all those years ago, but can’t remember. Does any other old person with a better memory than me recall?)
Comment by Lt Guv Thursday, Oct 15, 20 @ 3:33 pm