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The second wave is different, for several reasons

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Illinois

* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…

As of Oct. 21, hospital admissions for patients with COVID-like illnesses had increased 75% in two weeks within the Illinois Department of Public Health’s Region 8, which includes DuPage and Kane counties.

As of Oct. 23, only 25% of hospital beds in Region 8 were open, down from a third earlier that week. The state’s hospitalization “red zone” is 20% availability. At that point, regions are automatically put into state mitigation.

Remember “flatten the curve”? Well, the state’s 7-day average case positivity rate rose 54% in the 2-week period ending Oct. 22. And Region 8’s 7-day average test positivity rate increased 64% during the 10 days prior to that date.

The trend certainly does not appear to be our friend. And who knows what the situation is by the time you read this?

Even so, Rep. Deanne Mazzochi (R-Elmhurst) complained during a House Republican campaign press conference last week about the state mitigation measures which will soon be imposed on her home county of DuPage, claiming that “we do not have the same type of crisis scenario that we did back in March.”

Scientists knew very little about the virus in March, so people didn’t know quite what to do. Also, Gov. J.B. Pritzker has said over and over that he has zero plans to impose another sweeping stay-at-home order, which shut down a gigantic swath of an already mostly self-shuttered economy beginning in March.

The new mitigations apply mainly to bars and restaurants, closing indoor service and limiting hours. There is really no comparison between these mitigations and what was imposed in March. Remember when you couldn’t get a haircut, or visit the doctor for a routine checkup, have a cavity filled or hang out with a friend? This is most definitely not that.

Mazzochi went on to declare that the governor is “perfectly happy to wreck what’s going on in DuPage.”

Um, even if his secret identity really is a cartoon super-villain, Pritzker carried DuPage County in 2018. Presumably, he’d like to win it again. Joyfully wrecking DuPage would serve what purpose? Mazzochi may be spending too much time on social media.

But her reaction is an indication of the influential forces that are being targeted here. Influential restaurant and bar owners don’t appear to be willing to take this lying down. Several have made a big public show of remaining open to indoor service in defiance of the new prohibitions.

Opponents of the new mitigations say that bars and restaurants and other venues shouldn’t be singled out when the “real” problem is in nursing homes. But these venues are more interconnected than you might think.

“Recent data released by Johns Hopkins University and the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services shows that weekly cases in nursing homes rose nationwide in late September as the disease became more widespread in 38 states and the country entered its third coronavirus spike,” the Washington Post has reported.

In other words, if you want to protect Grandma (and a whole lot of other folks), you gotta control community spread. Nursing homes aren’t isolated bubbles. Workers, contractors, vendors, visitors, etc. come and go all the time. Whatever is in the community has a good chance of getting into those facilities and then can spread like wildfire.

DuPage County’s own contact tracing shows the second most outbreaks between Sept. 29 and Oct. 13 were connected to restaurants. The most? Long-term care and assisted living centers. That’s just one of several reasons why the state is focusing on restaurants.

Some folks, including the Illinois Restaurant Association, are referencing some DuPage stats that go back to March to claim that restaurants aren’t a real problem. Except, restaurants and taverns were closed for months last spring. Of course they weren’t a source.

Countless restaurants and bars are centers of their communities and many of their proprietors are widely respected. Not to mention that the hospitality industry is an incredibly large and important segment of the state’s economy.

There is no doubt that some very good, hardworking people are about to face financial ruin, owners and employees alike. And a lot of those owners have relationships with their legislators, mayors and other powerful types.

Point being, the governor is facing a different sort of challenge than last spring. We were mostly in it together back then. But now the virus is forcing the state to single out an organized, motivated and influential constituency and those folks are bound to gain significant traction, especially if heavily populated suburban Cook and Chicago are put into mitigation.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Oct 26, 20 @ 3:32 am

Comments

I’m so tired of people whining that this is only a problem in nursing homes so the rest of us shouldn’t be “punished.” How exactly do they think those nursing home residents are getting infected? They certainly aren’t the ones out partying.

Comment by tea_and_honey Monday, Oct 26, 20 @ 6:59 am
Something that would likely help the hospitalization numbers is putting them in context. What was available hospital capacity this time last year? Is it normal or not to have an increase in hospitalizations in the fall/winter? Non-COVID era numbers would give better context to COVID era numbers.

Comment by Eastside Monday, Oct 26, 20 @ 7:25 am
Everything that can be done to mitigate the risk In long term care and assisted living centers is being done. If you know of a specific facility that isn’t following the rules, report it. These residents have been isolated in these facilities since March except for essential errands ( doctors, ERs). The family visits
have been eliminated or severely restricted. Many of the staff are following similar rules at home to keep from bringing it in. Nothing more can be done other than to close the facilities and kick the residents out. To go where? On the street?

So therefore the logical next move is to try to eliminate transmission at the second most source of outbreaks. Bars and restaurants. The patrons need to follow the rules. The staff needs to enforce the rules. If either won’t, then the place will eventually close anyway as other patrons will vote with their feet.

Comment by thoughts matter Monday, Oct 26, 20 @ 8:36 am
in March the economy mostly self shuttered? Did I read that right? Please explain.

Comment by Louis G Atsaves Monday, Oct 26, 20 @ 8:41 am
The hardest difference from spring is the 6 month diet of nonsense narrative around covid pumped by conservative media that’s been rotting the brains of people like Mazzochi.

But some people won’t come to their senses until hospitals are on the edge of crisis again, if ever.

Comment by In 630 Monday, Oct 26, 20 @ 8:49 am
=“perfectly happy to wreck what’s going on in DuPage.”=

Looks like Deanne Mazzochi is adopting the Mark Meadows philosophy of we can’t control the pandemic and recycling Darren Bailey talking points. The problem is that she doesn’t recognize that they have vastly different audiences. Dupage is home of suburban moms and educated voters. It’s not the Pritzker s*&ks crowd that Bailey can reliably court. These are folks that pay attention and know the science. No purpose is severed by punishing Dupage county. If Mazzochi wants to beat the “you can’t make me drum” that’s her choice. But don’t be surprised if her constituents don’t join in.

Comment by Pundent Monday, Oct 26, 20 @ 8:50 am
=in March the economy mostly self shuttered? Did I read that right? Please explain.=

You did. Restaurants and stores, particularly large chains, started closing before Pritzker’s EO. And it wasn’t limited to Illinois. People quickly altered their behaviors and you can’t run a business without customers. A quick google search will remind you of that.

Comment by Pundent Monday, Oct 26, 20 @ 8:56 am
=In other words, if you want to protect Grandma (and a whole lot of other folks), you gotta control community spread=

Yep masks, social distancing, washing hands, avoid crowds. Oh and use those 4,000 promised contact tracers to keep a lid on the infections.

Comment by Donnie Elgin Monday, Oct 26, 20 @ 8:59 am
A recent report, that I read, stated that the primary reason for the economic slow down/crisis in the spring was fear of the virus and people avoiding going out not government orders to stay at home. I have read so many reports I do not remember where I read it (it might have been posted by Rich). The story also stated that schools starting off with remote learning is the reason for the slow economy now.

Comment by JS Mill Monday, Oct 26, 20 @ 9:01 am
Ataves-

Many businesses, other than grocers, pharmacists, etc. were experiencing loss of business due to so much we didn’t know about this virus.
In other words, people were voting with their feet.
Your sub-par trolling, while being consistent, does not erase history.
If you do pro-bono work, you’re still over-charging.

Comment by Flyin' Elvis'-Utah Chapter Monday, Oct 26, 20 @ 9:15 am
I would appreciate it if the state would create an online submission form to report violations of bars and restaurants so that I don’t have to trust the local yokels who already aren’t doing anything to suddenly be motivated to prevent the spread of a deadly pandemic.

Comment by Candy Dogood Monday, Oct 26, 20 @ 9:35 am
=in March the economy mostly self shuttered? Did I read that right? Please explain.=

The NBA and NHL halted their seasons without any government directive or action. MLB postponed spring training in Arizona and Florida. The NCAA first modified, then cancelled it’s largest event the Div. 1 basketball tournament again, without any governmental action - Federal, state or municipal. That’s an apotheosis of “self shuttered”.

Comment by Proud Sucker Monday, Oct 26, 20 @ 9:37 am
==perfectly happy to wreck what’s going on in DuPage==

The good news is that Deanne is keeping the fainting couch business running./S For the moment, the only business I’m aware of that’s on top of Covid enforcement is Delta airlines.

Comment by Jocko Monday, Oct 26, 20 @ 10:35 am
The restaurants and bars seem to be getting more bold — flat-out ignoring restrictions. Some are arguing that the only other option is to go out of business. They seem to be getting confident that the police won’t enforce restrictions, or that the prosecutor won’t file charges, or, if all else fails, that a jury won’t convict.

Comment by Southern Monday, Oct 26, 20 @ 10:35 am
I think the article is spot on. It is very different now. I haven’t eaten in a restaurant since March, but many people have found a way to be more comfortable doing so. Those restaurants were seeing business improve. They wouldn’t be so willing to defy the Governor if they didn’t have business to lose. People have different tolerances for pain, and Covid fatigue is real. The fact that this virus is most lethal against the elderly is dividing the population against itself. I don’t know how those business owners feel having put everything into those businesses, many for decades. It isn’t easy.

Comment by SSL Monday, Oct 26, 20 @ 10:49 am
At the beginning the Gov said lives over livelihoods we now see the intersection where livelihoods effect lives. People are desperate especially in the service economy. Feds extending PPP/UI would be helpful.

Comment by 1st Ward Monday, Oct 26, 20 @ 10:50 am
Businesses in this area were open and busy right up until JB closed them.

Comment by Qwerty Monday, Oct 26, 20 @ 10:58 am
===and many of their proprietors are widely respected===

Perhaps we ought to be reevaluating that on a case by case basis. So far in the community where I live there’s only one bar that I don’t have to boycott because they put their pockets over their patrons.

These folks should lose liquor licenses and never get them back. If they aren’t following these rules, why should we believe they’re following any of the other public safety/public health rules that get in the way of profit?

Comment by Candy Dogood Monday, Oct 26, 20 @ 11:30 am
I tend to follow science, but am feeling really bad for restaurants and other businesses that are affected by this second wave. Some will never reopen.

Comment by Southwest Sider Monday, Oct 26, 20 @ 11:47 am
I feel bad for the restaurants too, until I see people violating the rules and cheating against their competitors who are following the rules. I wish those rule followers would advertise their compliance and why they are complying (community spirit etc). Right now when I travel I am restricting myself to the big chains because they are following these rules even if they are in a state that doesn’t have restrictions. I know it’s because of lawsuits, but still, I respect them for that sacrifice. I don’t want to unwittingly do business with epidemic scofflaws so I just avoid mom and pops and buy online in the absence of information. Here at home I have a list I work off of.

Comment by cermak_rd Monday, Oct 26, 20 @ 11:54 am
I continue to see restaurant owners on TV saying they don’t want to hurt anyone, but they just want to stay afloat. While I have sympathy for that, they lost me at “but”…

Comment by Jibba Monday, Oct 26, 20 @ 12:10 pm
#why should we believe they’re following any of the other public safety/public health rules #

Because one has nothing to do with the other. One is subject to regular inspection, the other is a fight to maintain the livelihood of employees and owners. Equating the two is a cheesy attempt at ruining a reputation and making a bad situation worse.

Comment by Qwerty Monday, Oct 26, 20 @ 12:26 pm
===Because one has nothing to do with the other.===

I respectfully disagree. Health regulations, safety equipment, and all aspects of food purchasing, storage, and handling all cost money. Some owners are more willing to give up a little money to keep safe and serve top quality product. Others will lie and cheat, resenting anything that cuts profits by even a penny. The pandemic is no different.

Comment by Jibba Monday, Oct 26, 20 @ 12:43 pm
Qwerty,

Because one has nothing to do with the other

I disagree. It’s the same concept, you spend money to handle food properly, dispose of it if you haven’t sold it etc. In this case, they’re being asked to restrict themselves to carry out + delivery during mitigation and reduced capacity in other cases. It’s the same thing to me.

And they’re smearing their own reputations by being health and hygiene scofflaws.

Comment by cermak_rd Monday, Oct 26, 20 @ 12:48 pm
Amazon keeps getting my business over the mom and pop shops I very much want to support because their workers are not properly masked and / or aren’t enforcing proper masking with their customers.

Yesterday I walked over one mile to my favorite Italian grocery, to stock up on olive oil, pricey imported cheeses, etc. Instead, I had to leave immediately because the owner was working the deli counter with a chin mask on and I have a family member who likely won’t survive COVID if I bring it home.

I am tired of people blaming our governor for harming these small businesses. They are harming themselves by putting us in the position of having to take unnecessary risk in order to shop local. Just wear the mask, for Pete’s sake, and require your customers to and I’ll drop some serious money at your shop. It’s not that hard.

Comment by Marine Life Monday, Oct 26, 20 @ 1:00 pm
===Because one has nothing to do with the other===

lol

Next!

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Oct 26, 20 @ 1:09 pm
*Next*

How so? Running a clean kitchen and defying our petulant governor aren’t even in the same ballpark.

Comment by Qwerty Monday, Oct 26, 20 @ 1:26 pm
=== Running a clean kitchen and defying our petulant governor aren’t even in the same ballpark.===

Friend, how can you call a kitchen clean when the rest of the place is a super-spreader with a grill?

This is willful ignorance?

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Oct 26, 20 @ 1:28 pm
Running a clean kitchen and defying our petulant governor===

I’m guessing we disagree about what constitutes a clean kitchen, too. Feel free to tell me what restaurant I should be avoiding.

Comment by Jibba Monday, Oct 26, 20 @ 1:36 pm
The number of people completely divorced from reality is stunning. Out in the suburbs, affluent parents are foaming at the mouth to allow all sports to proceed and to open schools at 100% capacity without social distancing mitigation. The concern for their fellow man flew out the window as they continue to be asked to shoulder the responsibility of caring for their own children. If we want normalcy again with schools and restaurants we all need to make serious sacrifices. Furthermore, we have to try to move into an offensive position with this virus. Last week, New Trier approved a saliva screening program for their population. Also last week an elementary district in La Grange SD105 began saliva screening a portion of their population. Out of 400 screeners, 3 asymptomatic but highly contagious individuals were identified and pulled out of circulation. Illinois needs to figure out a way to make this program widespread throughout the state so those who are asymptomatic can be quarantined and we can then truly drive down and keep down our community spread. https://chicago.cbslocal.com/2020/10/17/covid-19-saliva-screening-begins-at-la-grange-school-district-105/?fbclid=IwAR2zO4gWoT8ClrfZ8yncmIi1J0UeA4NL9Y-Ty_pvPFqyZ0_xC4ViBZmE6Xo

Comment by OK Boomer Monday, Oct 26, 20 @ 1:42 pm
Pandemics have severe consequences…all ways…including, but not most importantly, financial…Life is priority one…and where it isn’t lies evil…Beware.

Comment by Dotnonymous Monday, Oct 26, 20 @ 1:49 pm
To add to my initial comment. Interesting and very scary the financial toll that Covid has hurt individuals comes from the amount of delinquent utility bills in the city and collar counties. Federal intervention needs to occur to help the decimated service industry and its employees. 1 in 5 late on Gas and Electric bills in September….

https://www.chicagobusiness.com/utilities/one-way-measure-depth-pandemic-pain

Comment by 1st Ward Monday, Oct 26, 20 @ 2:49 pm
More bad news. According to Dr. Fauci, we’re still in the first wave.

https://politicalwire.com/2020/10/26/fauci-says-were-still-in-first-wave-of-pandemic/

Just wear the (deleted) mask.

Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Oct 26, 20 @ 2:52 pm
Wow you deleted that quick, so much for free speech here on Capitol Fax. Better get this one too Rich.

“The Party seeks power entirely for its own sake. We are not interested in the good of others; we are interested solely in power, pure power.”
“Power is in tearing human minds to pieces and putting them together again in new shapes of your own choosing.” Orwell 1984

Comment by Ogden Monday, Oct 26, 20 @ 3:24 pm
===Wow you deleted that quick,===

Yeah, well, comparing mitigations to slavery will do that to a comment.

Also, get your own blog if you don’t like the rules.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Oct 26, 20 @ 3:26 pm
RICH, you had me this morning with “pocket lint”, then your last comment about the rules!!! I need the humor these days, so gracias. I have a wonder: if the major “spreaders” of the virus is because of supposed 20-somethings at bars/restaurants, why discriminate against these establishments (i guess this age group doesn’t do home repair)? Why not “discriminate” this age group and not allow anyone under 30 in the establishments? One discrimination deserves another.

Comment by Taxedoutwest Monday, Oct 26, 20 @ 3:58 pm
===major “spreaders” of the virus is because of supposed 20-somethings===

Who said that?

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Oct 26, 20 @ 4:11 pm
Trying to put words in Rich Miller’s mouth is like trying to give a Rottweiler a pill?

Comment by Dotnonymous Monday, Oct 26, 20 @ 4:18 pm
Every time I read that someone is going to boycott a particular business I have to chuckle. Us union folks have been organizing boycotts for decades and we can’t even get union members to refrain from using and buying goods and services from the other side. Lots of luck.

Comment by Blue Dog Dem Monday, Oct 26, 20 @ 10:17 pm
BTW. Anybody have some Oreos before they went to bed?

Comment by Blue Dog Dem Monday, Oct 26, 20 @ 10:25 pm