Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar

It’s an old poll, but you might be interested

Posted in:

Illinois
Polls

* I do not for the life of me understand why people sit on numbers this long. The poll of 895 registered voters was taken September 26 through October 4. The surveys were conducted both on the phone and online. Margin of error was +/- 3.28 percentage points…

While Chicagoans share many concerns over the city’s policing practices, 79% want the police to spend the same amount of time or more in their neighborhoods. That’s one of the key findings of a new Wirepoints/Real Clear Opinion Research poll that looked at a range of attitudes in Chicago on policing, race and Mayor Lori Lightfoot’s performance.

The desire for more police holds true across the city’s North (76%), South (80%) and West Sides (85%), as well as across whites (79%), blacks (77%) and Hispanics (87%). Only 15% of blacks and 10% of Hispanics citywide said they want the police to spend less time in their neighborhoods.

The poll surveyed 895 registered voters in Chicago from September 26th through October 4th using a mixed phone and online methodology.

Over three-quarters (76%) of surveyed Chicagoans reported they strongly support or somewhat support Black Lives Matter. However, that support has not translated into a desire for cutting down the number of police or abolishing the Chicago Police Department (CPD). Instead, Chicagoans strongly indicate they want more and better-quality policing instead.

When asked directly if they supported defunding the police, over half (51%) of Chicagoans were opposed, with only 39% in favor. Among black residents, opposition (46%) to defunding slightly exceeded support (45%).

And while 26% of Chicagoans would be more likely to vote for city council members that support disbanding the police – a larger 37% would be less likely to vote for them.

“George Floyd’s death and the subsequent protests expanded the influence of Black Lives Matter across the country, including in Chicago,” says Ted Dabrowski, President of Wirepoints. “However, while a vast number of Chicagoans support BLM, a majority of residents – black, white and Hispanic – want more police in their neighborhoods.”

Those surveyed were also very clear in their desire for better-quality policing. Half (51%) of all Chicagoans polled said they believe the Chicago Police Department is currently handling its job badly. More than six out of ten black residents (63%) held that view.

Finally, the poll found that while Mayor Lori Lightfoot continues to hold a high overall approval rating (61%), her performance rating drops considerably on issues relating to race and public safety.

Some of the main poll results include:

• Nearly 80% of respondents wanted the police to spend the same amount of time or more in their neighborhoods. The desire for more police held true across the city’s North (76%), South (80%) and West Sides (85%), as well as across whites (79%), blacks (77%) and Hispanics (87%).
• Black Chicagoans are the most supportive of Black Lives Matter (86%), followed by whites (74%) and then Hispanics (61%).
• Only 39% of Chicagoans said they supported defunding the police, while 51% were opposed. Opposition to defunding exceeded support in the North, South and West Sides, with North Side residents expressing the most opposition (57% oppose/ 36% support)
• By race, whites and Hispanics were most opposed to politicians supporting disbanding the CPD, with 43% and 41% saying they would be less likely to vote for a council member that pushed disbanding, respectively.
• More than half of citizens from the North Side (54%) and the West Side (51%) said the CPD was doing a good or excellent job, while only 32% of voters from the South Side said the same.
• 61% of respondents approve of the job Mayor Lightfoot is doing. Chicago’s white residents gave her the highest marks (68%), followed by blacks (63%) and then Hispanics (48%).
• Lightfoot’s approval numbers drop on individual policy issues related to race and public safety: public safety (46%), racial justice (44%), police reform (39%) and gun violence (31%).

* The poll of Chicagoans found Gov. JB Pritzker’s job approval at 63 percent and disapproval at 31 percent, which is basically the same as Mayor Lightfoot’s. Toplines are here. Lightfoot is not doing well on budget and tax issues, either. Crosstabs are here.

posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 6:14 am

Comments

Looking at the poll, Real Clear doesn’t really say what they mean by “defunding the police”, do they mean removing the police, reducing the police force, or giving some of their jobs to other professionals?

Also the questions about defunding the police are interesting, most are a 40/50 split. It shows that people are confused about what it means.

Comment by Da Big Bad Wolf Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 7:11 am
== It shows that people are confused about what it means.==

Agree completely. And this confusion of definitions also extends to the the people who are marching and chanting those words.

Comment by Responsa Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 8:19 am
The concept of defunding the police means very different things to different people. Some actually do apply the literally interpretation to the term while others see it as redirecting resources in other ways. Regardless the majority of polls across all races reflect what’s captured here, people are looking for more resources to address crime not less. At issue is what those resources look like, proper training, and accountability. Supporting Black Lives Matter and law enforcement aren’t mutually exclusive. You can do both and as the survey shows most people do.

Comment by Pundent Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 8:37 am
I’d like to see law enforcement redefined, not defunded.

Comment by Cheryl44 Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 8:44 am
In Mayor Lightfoot’s own recent survey, 87% of respondents said money should be reallocated from the police to other City services.

https://www.chicago.gov/content/dam/city/sites/budget/2021BudgetEngagementRecap.pdf

Comment by charles in charge Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 8:52 am
===* The poll of Chicagoans found Gov. JB Pritzker’s job approval at 63 percent and disapproval at 31 percent, which is basically the same as Mayor Lightfoot’s.===

In this snapshot, it’s a wash on the polling leverage, with both 30 points above water, if any takeaway I have for them both is “communicate” and be teammates, and realize that being in the same page is necessary during these trying times.

Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 9:00 am
It’s a shocking result. The people want the police to do their job safely, peacefully and without bias.

Comment by Bothanspy Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 9:02 am
“…respondents said money should be reallocated from the police to other City services.”

Well that’s not happening anytime soon. Chicago Police Pensions are in worse shape than any other pension system in the state. So they need more money in the future, not less.

And as the Sun Times recently pointed out, Cook County property taxes have risen at 3 times the rate of inflation since 2000.

Taxes have to go up even more. Homeowners will find that property values will decline, as people won’t buy a $500,000 with a $9k annual tax bill. So the value of the home will decline to more like $350k. The reassessed property taxes will come down to $6k.

But then, of course, the lower tax, on the reassessed house reduces property tax amounts, so taxes will have to be raised yet again.

It’s a never ending cycle right now. The only salvation, from an economic standpoint, is inflation. That will cure many ills, but that is 5 years out, at the very earliest.

Comment by Sarah Smile Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 9:05 am
==$500,000 with a $9k annual tax bill==

That tax bill would be a bargain in my neck of the woods.

Comment by City Zen Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 9:17 am
City Zen,
Would you mind sharing? I would be curious as to market value and tax rate. I’m not in the city, but I have a $350k house with a $7k tax bill.

Comment by Sarah Smile Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 9:23 am
=But then, of course, the lower tax, on the reassessed house reduces property tax amounts, so taxes will have to be raised yet again=

The value of a particular property has no impact on what the taxing bodies collect. If a school district passes a 10 Million dollar levy - they are going to collect that 10 million whether property values ( residential, commercial, farmland, Rail Road…) go up or down. the rate will fluctuate each year based on the Equalized Assessed Value of all properties within a particular Taxing body. If houses in your neighborhood plunge - but others don’t, or if commercial goes up - the tax burden will simply pass to those properties. Long story short the taxing bodies will collect their full levy ( exception for Cook County of course) regardless of the value fluctiatoins of the properties.

Comment by Donnie Elgin Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 9:34 am
=Taxes have to go up even more. Homeowners will find that property values will decline, as people won’t buy a $500,000 with a $9k annual tax bill.=

Where I’m at in Lake County a $500K market value will translate to a tax bill of roughly $17K - $18K. If the numbers you’ve provided reflect assessments in Chicago I’d consider yourself fortunate.

Comment by Pundent Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 9:41 am
Sarah Smile-
I’m in the SW burbs and my $265k house has a $9600 bill. I’m in am established subdivision that is 20 years old

Comment by Bothanspy Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 10:01 am
“$265k house has a $9600 bill”

Ouch. That’s a 3.6% property tax rate. Mine is at 2%, by comparison.

Comment by Sarah Smile Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 10:24 am
I am curious how people would have responded to a question along the lines of “Do you believe Police funding should be reduced and shifted to increase community services like mental health and violence prevention?” For many, that change is what they mean when they say defund the police. Not everyone, of course, but I think that is the issue with the defund language. While it is good language for motivating and energizing activists, it works against them when taken literally. Some have shifted to divest/invest language to give a more nuanced picture of what they are advocating for.

All that is to say, I understand why you have Lightfoot’s budget survey overwhelmingly supporting moving money from police to services (granted, that survey was by no mean scientific) and this poll saying no to defund.

Comment by Montrose Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 10:53 am
I could be more supportive to defunding if the alders and people pushing it would define how much and over how many years. Define what the correct level of funding is for the city. When this isn’t defined I assume the end-goal is abolish or replace.

Comment by 1st Ward Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 12:03 pm