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The trend is most definitely not our friend

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* The governor will go over this PowerPoint presentation today…

posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 2:15 pm

Comments

I would really like some info from scientists if any of this surge is the virus being more easily spread in times of less sunlight/colder weather vs. just the public being less safe.

The longer this goes on the harder it is to not just think we are on the same path as the Spanish flu and we just need to hang on until this virus mutates to be less damaging a couple years out

Comment by hisgirlfriday Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 2:45 pm
We have to get this under control now otherwise the worst is yet to come.

Wisconsin is now reporting a positivity rate of 27.2% and projecting that they may run out of hospital beds in as little as two weeks. This is serious folks.

Comment by Pundent Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 2:46 pm
hope everyone is watching Dr Langdon right now.

Comment by Cheryl44 Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 2:58 pm
Powerful stuff from Dr Langdon.

Comment by Pundent Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 3:06 pm
What makes this worse is that a significant percentage of the population thinks, for whatever reason, that the best way forward is to forget about the virus and go back to living their lives. This movement has been extremely intense over the past week or two.

We are headed for dark times.

Comment by Powdered Whig Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 3:14 pm
Oh yeah, but what about high school basketball? /s

Comment by JS Mill Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 3:16 pm
I support what the Governor has done. However, when he and Dr. Ezike talk, I have sadly concluded they’re no more effective than Col. Taylor was talking to Dr. Zaius.

Comment by Anyone Remember Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 3:24 pm
Our brains refuse to accept new information that contradicts our closely held beliefs.

In fact, the more you attack people’s closely held beliefs, the more tightly they cling to them.

Enforcement is the answer.

Comment by Thomas Paine Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 3:28 pm
I’ve seen many charts like that from Springfield. He better be very clear about what he’s referring to.

Comment by A Guy Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 3:31 pm
A few positives compared to earlier this year: Masks and other protection are readily available. Most are somewhat trained now for the procedures to curb the spread. We are now better prepared.

Comment by Southwest Sider Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 3:31 pm
But Tom DeVore says….

Comment by Bruce( no not him) Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 3:41 pm
=== I’ve seen many charts like that from Springfield. He better be very clear about what he’s referring to. ===

I think he and the experts have been perfectly clear. I think your confusion stems from the fact that you just don’t like what you’re hearing.

But, please, don’t be coy, what do you think these charts a unclear about?

Comment by PublicServant Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 3:52 pm
=== Enforcement is the answer. ===

I agree.

Comment by retiree Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 3:52 pm
It is how the message is delivered at times. Dr. Langdon knows how to break it down simply and directly. JP and Dr Ezike are too even keeled so it becomes white noise. If they want to be heard they have to ensure they select the best messenger.

Comment by illinifan Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 3:58 pm
I agree that Dr. Langdon’s delivery helps. I give Pritzker credit though. For a guy who’s not a scientist or doctor he does a good job of presenting the data and answering questions. And if you can’t follow what’s being said here it’s probably because you just don’t want to.

Comment by Pundent Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 4:20 pm
These charts make it crystal clear that our thresholds for additional mitigation measures are set far too high. All. measures of COVID exploded around October 11 once positivity increased above about 4%. If you don’t like positivity rates, you could set new cases at 2,000, deaths per day at 25, or any other measure you like. And enforcement is key.

Comment by Jibba Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 4:37 pm
People are just done. They don’t have the patience to deal with this anymore and so they are trying to ignore it and force life to go back to as normal as possible. In my area parents are marching to reopen the schools and applauding restauranteurs who are seating people indoors. If we are going to get this virus under relative control so that we don’t have to open a field hospital again we need the guidelines to become orders and the orders need to be enforced. I don’t see that happening though. The political will seems weak on enforcement.

Comment by Moderate Mom Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 5:03 pm
Scarlet Letter?
Tar and Feather?

Comment by Enforcement is the Answer- Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 5:10 pm
> JP and Dr Ezike are too even keeled so it becomes white noise. If they want to be heard they have to ensure they select the best messenger.

I had never thought about aggression as a deliberate tactic to drive reason out of politics. Naive.

Comment by Michael Feltes Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 5:12 pm
Yes make sure to close down those bars and restaurants BUT everyone go into those big box stores and Walgreens and gas stations…etc. I’m beginning to think Governor Quinn wouldn’t even be this bad.

Comment by The Night Fox Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 5:16 pm
His Girl — I read an article that suggested that the weather plays a role basically by forcing people indoors. That’s why we had surges in the South during the summer (people needing air conditioning) and in the North when the weather gets cold. Seemed reasonable.

Comment by Soccermom Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 5:24 pm
In regards to restaurants and bars closing and big box stores remaining open. If a restaurant/bar was housed in a huge space with tens of thousands of square feet and 20 foot high ceilings maybe it would make sense for them to stay open (assuming they also keep people 6 feet away.

To me the comparison is between spending a short time in the atrium entrance to a hospital and spending a couple hours in a hospital room with several people.

Comment by City Guy Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 5:26 pm
Assume away…I’m sure all of those big box stores are safely sanitized.

Comment by The Night Fox Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 5:37 pm
Tar and Feather?==

I’m about ready for it. But a liquor license suspension will do nicely.

Walgreens and gas stations===

Critical things must remain open, and you can wear a mask. Eating in a restaurant is not critical and you can’t wear a mask. See the difference?

Comment by Jibba Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 5:38 pm
= Yes make sure to close down those bars and restaurants BUT everyone go into those big box stores and Walgreens and gas stations…etc.=

Have you heard or read any of the science around this or are you simply venting because it doesn’t seem right to you. Pritzker and Dr. Ezike did a good job of walking through this today. Were you listening?

Comment by Pundent Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 5:47 pm
As Pritzker pointed out today we aren’t the only state who’s followed the science on this topic. Other stares, including red states, have taken similar mitigation actions successfully. And we’ve seen the results in other areas of the state where this form of mitigation has been used. Despite what you think the governor isn’t arbitrarily punishing restaurants and taking care of Wal Mart. But you don’t have to believe me or Pritzker. Google is your friend as is the CDC. Heck Rich posted a very good study on the topic earlier today. But if you don’t believe in science there’s nothing that I can say or do about that.

Comment by Pundent Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 6:17 pm
Nice defense. This isn’t a red state blue state issue and all I ask is the evidence that points to bars and restaurants being the reason these numbers have increased.

Comment by The Night Fox Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 6:45 pm
It’s bold to insist others find you evidence when you clearly haven’t looked on your own
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6936a5.htm?s_cid=mm6936a5_x

Comment by ArchPundit Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 6:52 pm
The evidence is there. You choose to ignore it because you don’t like what it’s telling you. You can choose to believe the science or not. I don’t care.

Comment by Pundent Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 6:52 pm
Lol okay.

Comment by The Night Fox Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 7:09 pm
You asked for research. You got it.

Comment by ArchPundit Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 7:25 pm
Yes, a federal government link. That provided all the evidence in Illinois. Thanks for that.

Comment by The Night Fox Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 7:38 pm
Are you suggesting that state lines change the nature of the virus? Or that Illinois’ water is different and that affects spread somehow? Please explain.

Comment by ArchPundit Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 7:41 pm
I’m suggesting that I would like to see the evidence that bars and restaurants created the spread of the virus recently. Please list which establishments are guilty of this.

Comment by The Night Fox Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 7:50 pm
You seem confused. The argument isn’t about specific guilty parties other than some obvious super spreader events, but the conditions that promote the spread of the virus. The previous mention of superstores and Walgreens demonstrates how much you lack a basic understanding of how you address a pandemic like Covid-19. You don’t look for specific spread, but for conditions you can change to reduce the spread. All of the other situations you keep trying to point out as alternatives don’t have the same conditions. Restaurants and bars, for them to be functional as restaurants and bars must have people unmasked and they talk and drink and eat. The other do not so the conditions for spread are different which is why there is a distinction. Does this clear up how public health decisions are made for you?

Comment by ArchPundit Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 8:13 pm
Please list which establishments are guilty of this.===

The last resort of the guy who doesn’t want to do anything. It’s OK, just own it.

Comment by Jibba Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 8:39 pm
Nice filibuster…and you talk down like you’re some expert all of sudden. Every public place can spread the virus and individuals may get the virus with or without a mask.

Businesses like bars and restaurants have adapted to the virus…so in order for them to remain relevant they must generate revenue. Govt hand outs won’t save everyone and again there’s no evidence they produce the conditions of this spread. So Arch just stay at home til the govt tells you it’s safe to go outside again.

Comment by The Night Fox Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 8:42 pm
=Pritzker and Dr. Ezike did a good job of walking through this today. Were you listening?=

A simple “no” would have sufficed.

Comment by Pundent Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 8:46 pm
I want to see the data. Where are the data? Oh. Now I want to see BETTER data.

There aren’t enough data in the world to convince someone who doesn’t want to see.

Comment by Jibba Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 9:00 pm
wish I made this earlier in day so everyone would seem to comment on.
But around here there are hardly any eating joints closed inside seating, Carmi, Mcleansboro, Mt. Vernon, Fairfield and on and on… one put up a all sides closed tent outside and stuff it full of tables

Comment by 13th Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 9:05 pm
====Nice filibuster…and you talk down like you’re some expert all of sudden. Every public place can spread the virus and individuals may get the virus with or without a mask.

First you wanted evidence and then anyone who presents evidence is being too smart or something. It’s a weird strategy. You can get the virus without the mask, but the chances are much lower than if you are wearing a mask. It is not binary. More importantly, you are less likely to spread the virus as an aerosol when you are wearing a mask which is the primary manner of transmission.

None of what I’m saying requires me to be an expert. It only requires that you read the literature and know a little bit about public health. Six months into a major world pandemic, it is kind of weird more people have not taken the time to learn a bit about these issues.

Bars and restaurants have adapted and most I am aware of have been pretty solid in following the rules. The problem is the risk is elevated now and those two categories are inherently more likely to spread an aerosol transmitted virus.

There is every evidence, which you have been provided, that restaurants and bars lead to greater transmission of the virus because people cannot wear masks the entire time they are in the business. You are denying actual studies that demonstrate the exact thing you say hasn’t been demonstrated.

I’m not staying at home because the government is telling me. This is the thing you do not understand. I’m staying at home because doctors are telling us it isn’t safe. Even if restaurants are fully open, I, and a lot of other people, are not going to go. This has been shown in Iowa. The thing is it isn’t harmless to let people make their own choices in the case of a pandemic such as this because increasing the overall rate of transmission may be most dangerous to those who ignore the science, but it is more dangerous for everyone. Again, these are pretty basic points of public health. This long into a pandemic I’m amazed at how many people have bothered to learn the most basic information about the disease and public health.

Comment by ArchPundit Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 9:35 pm
Tbh some of those big boxes need to start re-limiting how many people are inside at once. Was at Costco for the flu mist and it was terrifying. Too many people, just browsing, meandering around, not watching where they were going.

I have zero interest in going in a store for anything but groceries and prescriptions. We support local restaurants with curbside, but we’re not going inside.

Comment by Suburban Mom Thursday, Oct 29, 20 @ 10:39 pm
===less sunlight/colder weather vs. just the public being less safe.===

Humidity is a factor in the spread of the droplets/aerosols. At risk of over simplifying, The more moisture that is already occupying the air, the harder it is for the droplets/aerosols to remain airborne for as long.

Dry air, which is especially common indoors during the winter allows for the droplets/aerosols to hang out airborne longer. It also tends to be less humid outside as well.

This difference is sort of a moot point in an enclosed space with no ventilation.

But — it’s not just how people behave changing due to it being winter, it’s also due to exterior environmental factors, as well as conditioned spaces in doors.

Comment by Candy Dogood Friday, Oct 30, 20 @ 12:42 am