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Rep. Guzzardi locates Chicago’s pro-Biden/anti-Foxx/anti-Fair Tax voters

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* You should probably read the whole thread, but he’s got two interesting maps I wanted to share…

Louder for the people in the back. This is a map of people who said "Yes I want a Democratic president, but hell no you're not gonna raise taxes on the rich."

I think some would call them "the libs" pic.twitter.com/w2vWj7Zk9h

— Will Guzzardi (@WillGuzzardi) November 9, 2020

Discuss.

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 2:27 am

Comments

I think he’s engaging in some trickery. For example, his general maps show the majority of the lakefront did indeed vote in favor of the fair tax, though not as lopsided as elsewhere. Then he zooms into those voters who voted for Biden and against the fair tax - shockingly, they live in the Loop and Lincoln Park. But then he zooms back out and uses that to smear all “lakefront liberals.” He also turns Kim Foxx into a litmus test of whether one supports criminal justice reform.

Comment by lake county democrat Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 6:12 am
Looks like a lot of these voters live in Guzzardi’s district…

Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 7:22 am
A states attorney interested in criminal justice reform is badly needed. Too bad Kim Foxx decided to burn her credibility on Jussie Smollett. And I voted yes on fair tax and for Biden.

Comment by The Way I See It Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 7:27 am
Guzzardi and other progressives saw the Foxx race as a referendum on criminal justice reform (and lots of conservatives saw it that way, too.) But for many voters it was a referendum on Foxx’s handling of the Smollett case. They make up the bulk of the Biden-O’Brien vote and are the main factor in Foxx’s underperformance.

Comment by Roman Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 7:36 am
Fascinating. Is Rep Guzzardi using Election Day numbers or numbers that take into account all VBM numbers or a portion of VBM votes? Is he using a public GIS system on a Board of Elections website? I’m sure every member of the GA wants to know their Fair Tax vote totals and the Gov likely wants them to know the Fair Tax votals AFTER all the VBM ballots have been counted.

Comment by Shacklethorn Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 7:39 am
Two really good things;

Guzzardi has broken down a nice picture of things to an issue.

This take might be far more important the more I read it in the context of the Guzzardi maps;

=== Guzzardi and other progressives saw the Foxx race as a referendum on criminal justice reform (and lots of conservatives saw it that way, too.) But for many voters it was a referendum on Foxx’s handling of the Smollett case. They make up the bulk of the Biden-O’Brien vote and are the main factor in Foxx’s underperformance.===

In context to Foxx, her own record is an example how down ballot can, and does often, differ from the head of the ticket… and Biden was never going to be the one to carry the “Fair Tax” to victory… as far as I can tell, Biden never ran on “Fair Tax” anywhere.

All that said… I sincerely appreciate, in map form this statistical look… but, where did Biden himself run on the “Fair Tax”?

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 7:48 am
There’s a lot more yellow on that map, and almost no blue. It wasn’t just the North Shore “libs” (as he put it) who voted for Biden and against the amendment. Blaming the voters, many in your district, instead of the terrible vote yes campaign strategy, is a bold move. But it’s par for the course for him. He’s the smartest man in the room when he’s by himself.

Comment by fs Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 7:52 am
I am not sure that Will and many of his city colleagues understand that it wasn’t about the state needing $. People understood that but the vast majority also had no trust In Will or his fellow legislators to spend the extra revenue in the right way..That shouldn’t be hard to grasp since they have done absolutely nothjing to address pensions, property taxes etc.

Comment by Etown Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 8:06 am
Even a greater context;

Biden fended off attacks on him to “raising taxes”

Biden had an ad, no tax increase, unless you made more than $400K

The context to that?

Easy. With the federal government having progressive tax rates, it was accepted as a claim he could make because of the tool(s) related to income tax at that level of governing.

The “Fair Tax” was still in an argument with messaging if it was or wasn’t taxing retirement income, the Frerichs Tax. It’s a glaring example how both can’t be tied all too easily, even if the map(s) tell interesting things to the ballot choices

Context.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 8:08 am
A lot of those loop / river north / Gold Coast/ Lincoln Park voters experienced the looting first hand, and a lot of them view Foxx as not doing enough to deter this type of crime, whether that is a fair assessment by these voters or not, it’s a real thing.

Comment by Lake Effect Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 8:22 am
Rep Guzzardi has never understood the voter who signs the front of the paycheck. He’s only been in the group that signs the back of that check.

Comment by Wow Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 8:38 am
===Rep Guzzardi has never understood the voter who signs the front of the paycheck. He’s only been in the group that signs the back of that check.===
Guzzardi never saw a doctor or a dentist? Never hired a plumber? Do you have proof?

Comment by Da Big Bad Wolf Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 8:41 am
===the voter who signs the front of the paycheck===

The voter doesn’t sign his check, it’s the Comptroller abd Treasurer…

Go back to bed, start the day over.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 8:44 am
So now we blame Democrat voters for not following our message instead of ourselves for not convincing them our proposed policy was best.

Interesting tactic. Let’s see how this works for them.

Comment by Centennial Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 8:45 am
===The voter doesn’t sign his check, it’s the Comptroller abd Treasurer…===

To be fair, I’ve never really understood Frerichs…

Comment by Guzzardi Himself Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 8:46 am
=== To be fair, I’ve never really understood Frerichs…===

Prolly one of those “After Paul Powell” reforms… dunno

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 8:47 am
==To be fair, I’ve never really understood Frerichs…==

I understand that he’s tall enough that he doesn’t need a stepladder to change lightbulbs.

Comment by Chatham Resident Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 8:50 am
== A lot of those loop / river north / Gold Coast/ Lincoln Park voters experienced the looting first hand, and a lot of them view Foxx as not doing enough to deter this type of crime, whether that is a fair assessment by these voters or not, it’s a real thing.==

A lot of those loop / river north / Gold Coast/ Lincoln Park voters might be surprised to know that the prosecutors who work under Foxx would still be working under O’Brien.

From the Chicago Tribune: “From late May to mid-June, about 325 people were arrested on felony charges related to the demonstrations and civil unrest that followed the murder of George Floyd.”
“Of those Cook County felony arrests, 90% were approved for charges by Foxx’s office. Three-quarters of the approved felony cases were for looting-related charges — and none of those has been dropped.” Foxx said.

So it looks like a lot of those loop / river north / Gold Coast/ Lincoln Park voters aren’t smarter than the average bear. Or a box of rocks.

Comment by Sling Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 8:57 am
It looks like the Fair Tax only got 60.5% in Madigan’s ward. Not a good sign when that is the swing ward on this amendment.

Comment by Chicagoan Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 9:00 am
Looks like a lot of Police-Fire anti fair tax all over the city…

Comment by PublicServant Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 9:25 am
And definitely anti-Foxx.

Comment by PublicServant Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 9:25 am
The same voter that votes for Biden and against Foxx and the tax increase amendment in 2020 will vote for a moderate Republican gov candidate in 2022.

Comment by Dr. Love Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 9:26 am
==Looks like a lot of these voters live in Guzzardi’s district==

Guzzardi’s district was mostly green and yellow for the Fair Tax but orange for Foxx.

Using Will-speak, Guzzardi’s district is a map of people who said “Yes I want a Democratic president, but hell no you’re not gonna…??

Awkward.

Comment by City Zen Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 9:35 am
Addendum to my prior post: The people I am talking about do not actually make more than $250,000 a year and never have but still felt like they were going to wind up paying more in taxes if the amendment passed

Comment by hisgirlfriday Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 9:37 am
==The same voter that votes for Biden and against Foxx and the tax increase amendment in 2020 will vote for a moderate Republican gov candidate in 2022==

Not if that moderate Republican is anti-choice in order to get out of a Republican Gubernatorial primary.

Comment by Shacklethorn Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 9:38 am
I desperately need to know everything about those 5 precincts where Foxx outperformed Biden

Comment by map nerd Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 9:41 am
==The same voter that votes for Biden and against Foxx and the tax increase amendment in 2020 will vote for a moderate Republican gov candidate in 2022==

I’ll put my Democratic bona fides up against anyone. I don’t believe I have voted for a Republican since 1984. I voted straight Democratic but against Kim Foxx. I hope its another 36 years before I vote for another one but if Foxx runs again in 2024, i won’t be voting for her.

Comment by Paddyrollingstone Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 9:45 am
=== A lot of those loop / river north / Gold Coast/ Lincoln Park voters experienced the looting first hand, and a lot of them ===

Stop rationalizing racism. There’s “good Blacks” and “bad Blacks.” Along Chicago’s lakefront, “good Blacks” is whomever the Chicago Tribune says it is.

You can tell a wealthy Republican or independent along Chicago’s lakefront almost whatever you want about a Black — or Latino — candidate and they will probably believe it. Ask Will Caskey.

Comment by Black Hornet Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 9:48 am
I think one thing these maps reveal is Mayor Lightfoot not going to bat for the Fair Tax in any meaningful way. I am not suggesting the Fair Tax would have passed if she was all in - there were a lot of things that could of/should of been done better to get more yes votes - but Lightfoot was happy to signal to those anti-Fair Tax Dems that she was with them.

Comment by Montrose Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 9:49 am
Guzzardi has identified a pocket of Dems that don’t believe that $250K in income warrants being labeled as “wealthy.” Some of the Dems believe that because they, like rest of the middle class, have to work for a living rather than use passive or investment income to pay the bills they are not “wealthy.” Others grew up poor or lower middle class and even if they have accumulated some real wealth - rather than just having a large income, will never really believe they are wealthy until they have $5 mil, $10 mill or more generating essentially risk proof passive income. This mindset is partially influenced by the Unites States’ lack of a safety net for retirement and the possibility of an illness causing a medical bankruptcy.

Comment by Shacklethorn Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 9:49 am
===The same voter that votes for Biden and against Foxx and the tax increase amendment in 2020 will vote for a moderate Republican gov candidate in 2022.===

I’ll eat my hat if the party of Baily and Devore nominates a ‘moderate’

Comment by Joe Bidenopolous Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 9:52 am
The maps are a good visualization of what is going on all over the country as the Democratic party fights over what direction it will take.

Billionaires have taken over the Democratic Party but they do not share the same priorities as the working people and Labor Unions.

That’s why in Marin County California you see the exact same results between Biden and the Anti-labor Uber Ballot Proposition as you see with Biden and the Fair Tax in the Gold Coast.

The Billionaires want the party, they don’t want the policies that benefit the working man.

Comment by Altgelds Ghost Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 9:54 am
Just to confuse things further, I voted Pro-Trump/Anti-Fox/Pro Tax Amendment. I also voted for the Republican Cook County Clerk candidate, because she had first-hand knowledge of the office’s problems being a lawyer.I refuse to vote “party line”, and consider myself an Non-partisan voter.

Comment by thisjustinagain Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 10:08 am
==The same voter that votes for Biden and against Foxx and the tax increase amendment in 2020 will vote for a moderate Republican gov==

Disagree. Voting against the Fair Tax and/or Foxx doesn’t shift the balance of power. They were the two means for Democrat voters to voice their disapproval without undermining their party.

Even if O’Brien won, he would have been extremely vulnerable next election cycle, as any Republican in a Cook County-wide election would be.

Comment by City Zen Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 10:17 am
Lots of green everywhere on the tax. A little underperforming everywhere adds up.

That Foxx drop off has some interesting West and far South side high areas. I do wonder how many of those were “not voted” as opposed to “vote for the other person”.

Comment by Fav Human Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 10:19 am
Downtown and Lincoln Park have seen increased levels of carjackings, robberies and shootings. Many in broad daylight. Setting aside the property destruction associated with the protests, that’s what those voters were mostly reacting to in voting against Foxx, imo.

She may not deserve the blame, but that is where it is being placed.

Guzzardi, like his bicycle-built-for-two buddy Daniel Biss, is from the holier-than-thou wing of the party. It’s not just the Republicans that have to contend with zealot true believers eager to cast out those who are not ultra-orthodox.

Comment by Moe Berg Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 10:48 am
In all seriousness. Can someone explain to me the obsession with the Smollett case? I kind of agree it was mishandled, but that doesn’t change my support for her reforms. I will never understand the uproar.

Comment by JJJJJJJJJJ Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 10:56 am
How is Guzzardi’s platform getting fewer votes a scathing indictment of Biden? Rather than trying to demonize successful Democrats, would he not be better served to work on the messaging for his ideas so it does better outside his district?

Comment by Really Will? Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 11:22 am
So there are voters out there that care about competence in government? There are chunks of people that are sophisticated in their voting? I just don’t see why there is shock out there that maybe people value thoughtful leaders and well thought out plans.

Comment by Red Ranger Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 11:26 am
if he was my State Rep. I’d be telling him to get back to trying to make State government work.

Comment by Amalia Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 11:38 am
Interesting data and comparisons that absolutely depict where “the pro-Biden / anti-Foxx / anti-Fair Tax voter”s were. He should have stopped there.

“The don’t-tax-the-rich, anti-criminal justice reform Democrat?”, not so much…

Comment by Theshow Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 11:49 am
==I will never understand the uproar.==

Perhaps if you step back and try to view it through the lens of all the people who saw that Smollett episode as magnifying that there are different rules of justice for rich celebrities and the connected than for regular folks, it will aid your understanding of the uproar.

Comment by Responsa Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 11:54 am
JJJJ, Ill try. Politicians are judged on the big issues. She had a heater of a case and completely bungled it. Adding, the major theme of her election to the office was in Cook County justice is unequally applied and then by all neutral accounts she applies the same unequal justice she decried. If shes doing this for the big cases, what is she doing in the cases no one sees?

Comment by Red Ranger Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 11:56 am
Don’t have time to read everything, but one comment stuck out in my mind that the pro-Fair Tax campaign was terrible. I don’t remember seeing much of it, ‘cuz I’m old and watch more PBS than anything else. The ads I did see, however, from both sides were clear. The pro-Fair Tax ads were much, much better than the anti-Fair Tax ads.

Comment by BigVig209 Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 12:04 pm
Another way to describe the anti tax and anti Foxx voters is to call them Lori Lightfoot’s base.

Comment by KarlMarx Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 12:19 pm
I think this is a bit of a simplistic assessment for a lot of the reasons others have already mentioned. I would be curious, and would think it would be important to see, these maps in 2016. Maybe these aren’t “the libs” and instead moderate Rs that couldn’t stomach a vote for Trump? I’ll admit I don’t know enough and am open to hearing from others about this angle though.

Comment by Context? Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 12:42 pm
@City Zen -

I don’t think these were, by and large, Democratic voters voicing their disapproval.

Biden v Trump is not the baseline Democratic vote.

Iris Martinez fared 10 percent worse than Biden in 43.

Comment by Black Hornet Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 12:48 pm
Will pulled an AOC and attacked the base of his own party. Unless it really isn’t his party or never really was? Logan Square is not the world, the state or even the rest of the city, Will.

Maybe it’s time the Rose people finally do what they hint at doing: forming their own party.

Comment by Blue Beard Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 12:53 pm
===Will pulled an AOC and attacked the base of his own party===

That tiny enclave is the base of his party???

Go take a nap.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 12:56 pm
Typical lakefront liberals. They make it so easy for pretty much everyone else to dislike them.

Comment by Left Leaner Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 1:03 pm
What’s particularly damning about this is that it’s JB’s homebase. Looks like he had lots of people convinced, but not his own neighbors. *sigh

Comment by Left Leaner Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 1:07 pm
**How is Guzzardi’s platform getting fewer votes a scathing indictment of Biden? **

Huh? Where did he say that?

Comment by SaulGoodman Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 1:22 pm
==Iris Martinez fared 10 percent worse than Biden in 43==

And Kim Foxx fared 28 points worse than Martinez in 43 despite being ballot neighbors.

Still don’t think this was Democratic voters voicing their disapproval?

Comment by City Zen Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 1:49 pm
So, politics is nuanced regardless of your preferred party/party affiliation…..weird….

Comment by TrickQuestion Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 1:55 pm
JJJJJJJJJJ, another source of uproar over the handling of the Smollett fiasco was that she threw members of her team under the bus after she failed to heed their advice. Not a good look for any executive.

Comment by Wonk Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 2:18 pm
“Go take a nap.”

Some of us work and don’t have time to parse and edit each and every comment. Now, to the point:

Maybe Will and the rest of the Rose crowd should just get out of the Democratic Party.

Comment by Blue Beard Tuesday, Nov 10, 20 @ 2:41 pm