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Since October 1, Illinois has seen a 459% increase in cases, 250% increase in case positivity, 217% increase in deaths, 179% increase in hospitalizations, 161% increase in patients on ventilators

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Illinois

* From the governor’s office…

posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Nov 12, 20 @ 2:38 pm

Comments

I’m curling up in a ball and not coming out until Spring.

Comment by Montrose Thursday, Nov 12, 20 @ 2:54 pm
It’s astonishing how fast and far it has spread in just a few weeks.

Comment by Wensicia Thursday, Nov 12, 20 @ 3:00 pm
Not in Orland Park nobody gets sick,just ask Mayor Pekau we are protected by Mother Nature from all Viruses. Everyone should come to Orland Park and stay here till Covid is gone.

Comment by Hard D Thursday, Nov 12, 20 @ 3:00 pm
And this exponential increase in metrics is all because of irresponsible behavior and a failure to follow the safety protocols that have been laid out by our governmental leaders and health experts?

It just doesn’t add up.

Comment by Anon Thursday, Nov 12, 20 @ 3:15 pm
It’s not just the mayor in Orland Park, the Dist.#135 School Board has their heads buried in the sand with him.

Comment by Shane Falco Thursday, Nov 12, 20 @ 3:17 pm
===It just doesn’t add up. ===

So, what do you think it is, big brain? Is some furrin country flying over and spreading the COVID on unsuspecting Illinoisans?

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Nov 12, 20 @ 3:23 pm
==And this exponential increase in metrics is all because of irresponsible behaviour…==

This virus is spreading between people who aren’t doing anything to help prevent the spread. Viruses don’t care about safety protocols, or politics, the virus is doing what it does best. Spread to new hosts. It’s the people who don’t care about protecting other people and/or who care more about protecting their right to not wear a mask or to continue to congregate in large groups, and ignore all of the science (which is what our government leaders and health experts are following) that is creating this exponential growth.

But please, by all means, continue down your naysaying path of disbelief until this virus impacts someone close to you. And then expect the medical professionals to work overtime and risk their lives to save that person who is close to you. /s

Comment by EssentialWorkingMom Thursday, Nov 12, 20 @ 3:28 pm
Really it is just an increase in one number, the R0.

The rate we are spreading the disease from 1.00 on September 10th (1 person infects one other person, on average) to 1.27 today (1 person infects 1.27 other people) today.

The increase in the R0 led to an exponential increase in infections. A week later, an exponential growth in hospitalizations. A few days later, an exponential growth in ICUs and vetilators, a few days later, exponential growth in death.

Like a clock, one gear drives all the rest.

Comment by Thomas Paine Thursday, Nov 12, 20 @ 3:43 pm
Per IDPH statistics (https://www.dph.illinois.gov/covid19/covid19-statistics), there were 295,440 positive test results/confirmed cases on 10/1 and 536,542 as of today. That doesn’t work out to +250% or +209%, let alone 459%. Where are the numbers to support the Powerpoint slide?

Comment by Please show your work Thursday, Nov 12, 20 @ 3:56 pm
Please show your work: That looks like daily cases.

Comment by Jibba Thursday, Nov 12, 20 @ 4:31 pm
Please show your work, I imagine they’re talking about new cases, maybe smoothed over a 7 day period. If you just use the exact numbers from 10/1 and 11/12, you get 2,166 and 12,702, respectively, do the percent difference ((12657-2166)/2166)*100, and you get 484%. It doesn’t match exactly obviously, which is why I think they may be using 7 day smoothed numbers. I can’t find those and I’m not going to calculate them myself.

More importantly, why are you wasting your time questioning the numbers? When the people spending all of their time working on this tell you it’s bad, the default should be to believe them. Come on now.

Comment by Perrid Thursday, Nov 12, 20 @ 4:39 pm
Just trying to follow the science, which tends to cite sources. They’re cited on the “surrounding states are bad” slide in the same presentation, so why not here? A 459% increase in anything should raise *some* eyebrows, shouldn’t it?
Is it bad? Yes, it is, but be intellectually honest about it.

Comment by Please show your work Friday, Nov 13, 20 @ 10:27 am