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The rich guy does have a point

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Michael Sacks, a top Democratic donor and supporter of Joe Biden, questioned efforts to push Michael Madigan out of the speakership at a time when Democrats need him most.

“We have a raging pandemic, a precarious economy, a huge budget hole and we might be coming into one of the toughest budget-making sessions we’ve ever had. The idea that we don’t have all of our best players on the field protecting social services, education, working families and other things Democrats care about is nonsensical,” Sacks told Playbook in an exclusive interview. […]

Top Illinois Democrats have blamed Madigan in recent days for not capturing the 13th Congressional District and for the graduated income tax’s failure. They say Madigan’s connection to an influence-peddling investigation into ComEd is what crushed Democrats’ hopes of winning.

Sacks disagreed, saying Trump’s supporters toppled any blue wave Democrats had hoped for anywhere. Congressional Democrats sustained losses in places like New York, Florida, California and New Mexico. And former Minnesota Lt. Gov. Michelle Fischbach, a Republican, defeated Democratic Rep. Collin Peterson, a Democrat in that state who voted against impeaching Trump. […]

In the 13th District, Democratic turnout was up, but so was Republican. Betsy Dirksen Londrigan’s race against Republican Rep. Rodney Davis saw Davis receive 187,583 votes to Londrigan’s 126,811. In 2016, Davis received 179,567 to his Democratic opponent’s 148,517.

Sacks isn’t wrong about down-ballot races nationwide, either. According to the National Conference of State Legislatures, in 5,876 regularly scheduled legislative races in 44 states, “the big surprise is that only two chambers — the New Hampshire House and Senate — changed hands. The GOP won both.”

* CNN…

There seemed to be one safe bet when it came to the 2020 election results: Democrats would easily hold on to their majority in the House of Representatives. Not only that, but the conventional wisdom held that Democrats would pick up more than the 235 seats they won in the 2018 midterm elections.

While Democrats will have a majority next Congress, Republicans vastly outperformed expectations and nearly pulled off an election shocker.

As of this writing, CNN has projected that Democrats have won in 219 seats. Republicans have been projected the winners in 203 seats. There are 13 races outstanding, per CNN projections.

Of those 13, the Democratic candidates lead in a mere two of them. (One of these 13 is going to a runoff, where the Republicans are heavily favored to win.)

According to the AP count, President Trump is losing Illinois by 17.1 percentage points, which is his same margin as 2016. The House Republicans were saying before the election that if Trump could keep his losing margin under 20 then they’d have a shot at staying in the hunt.

* About a week before the election, Gov. Pritzker’s operation began running this ad telling voters that President Trump wanted them to vote “No” on the graduated income tax…

By that time, a ton of Democrats had already voted and a comparatively few Republicans had yet to cast a ballot. So, there’s a school of thought which believes the Trump ad may have “reminded” at least some Republicans to vote against the Fair Tax. And while they were at the polls, they kept voting Republican down the ticket.

I’m not saying that the governor is responsible for Republicans doing better than expected here because the GOP did that nationally. I’m just saying he may not have made suburban Democrats’ jobs any easier.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 9:50 am

Comments

In hindsight that’s an incredibly dumb ad to run.

Comment by Nick Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 9:57 am
=== By that time, a ton of Democrats had already voted and a comparatively few Republicans had yet to cast a ballot. So, there’s a school of thought which believes the Trump ad may have “reminded” at least some Republicans to vote against the Fair Tax. And while they were at the polls, they kept voting Republican down the ticket.

I’m not saying that the governor is responsible for Republicans doing better than expected here because the GOP did that nationally. I’m just saying he may not have made suburban Democrats’ jobs any easier.===

The truly colossal mistake, the way they ran the “Fair Tax Flop”, the saturation never ever materialized, they were chasing… after sitting on $50+ million for weeks… nay, months… and this idea that saturation and such after early voting was going on for weeks…

It’s not an overstatement, at all… this Fair Tax Flop will be something talked about like the O’Malley Mistake… and in this case squandering time and cash… and early voting… and time and cash… like this ad… didn’t at all help once out into play.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 9:58 am
How many of Speaker Madigan’s opponents (especially GOP supporters) support the removal of Sen. McConnell as Senate Majority Leader? Both legislative leaders face similar circumstances at this point in time.

Comment by Ares Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 9:58 am
Yes we can look at the financial disaster caused by decades of Madigan’s leadership in the House and say we need more of that same leadership in the future? No, that would be stupid and reckless. What we need is corruption out of government and a government that does their job without wanting all controlling power and taking care of special interest groups that keep them in power. We need representatives that can freely speak their minds without the Velvet Hammer smashing them for doing so. Madigan and other power hungry and corrupt politicians is not what Illinois needs in the future.

Comment by Arock Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 10:05 am
Republicans’ blind support of Trump changes the rules. Short of an indictment, why should House Democrats bail on Madigan? At worst, he cost Democrats two House seats, still allowing them to keep a super-majority.

For me Madigan carries too much baggage. How long can he keep tempting fate? The DPI needs a modern messaging apparatus—various reasons the party needs a new Speaker.

Comment by Grandson of Man Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 10:05 am
R’s poised to hold the Senate and pick off the House in 2 years.

Comment by Petey L. Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 10:11 am
== questioned efforts to push Michael Madigan out of the speakership at a time when Democrats need him most.==

The obvious counter here is that the Madigan-led GA has done virtually nothing to ameliorate the crisis since March and literally nothing since the abbreviated session in May. We don’t have our best players on the field? They’ve decided not to even take the field.

Also, blame Madigan for the failure of the FairTax is rich. The ads started late, and they were weak.

Comment by Bubble Popper Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 10:12 am
First, those vote totals for 2016 are not correct. Londrigan lost by only about 2,000 votes, not 30K.

Second, Londrigan is and was a weak candidate, being a political novice and frankly a poor retail politician. Dems need a better candidate.

Comment by Jibba Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 10:16 am
The increasing distrust in government is a national trend. It is used as a political lever, and it impacts public acceptance of various arguments and symbols. It can even become a self-fulfilling prophecy, by hindering internal government efforts at structural reform.

But what exactly we can do about it in Illinois, is the key question.

Comment by walker Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 10:19 am
Thanks. Holy cow. I somehow managed to never see that particular ad before. I do believe many of the makers of ads on the pro Fair Tax did not realize the mixed messages they were sending. So Illinois is in a budget hole and in desperate need of cash and we need to change our constitution but—97% of people will get a tax cut. Even savvy grade schoolers who heard that so called argument would say “huh?” or “does not compute’.

Comment by Responsa Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 10:21 am
The fair tax message was poor. Yes they stressed a reduction for some but a reduction that equated to a meal at Applebee’s…there was no meat in the fair tax bone

Comment by Fruitless Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 10:23 am
===totals for 2016 are not correct. Londrigan lost===

Londrigan didn’t run in 2016.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 10:23 am
Re-Read the Michael Sacks info a couple of times.
He obviously is coming from a different direction than the United States District Attorney and lots of Democrats about what the word ‘best” means.
I suppose the old saying “what you see depends upon where you sit” certainly applies to the Sacks philosophy of what is “best” for Mr. Sacks and Illinois.

Comment by Back to the Future Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 10:31 am
=== by decades of Madigan’s leadership===

President Phillip, Governors Thompson, Edgar, Ryan…

Bruce Rauner wanted NO budgets for a whole General Assembly, how is that fiscally sound.

Seriously, wear a mask with that kinda mouth breathing silly.

Your premise is a bunch of angry, masquerading as thoughtful.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 10:31 am
Sorry, 2018. And the vote totals are still not correct. 136K vs 134K in 2016, and 180 vs 150K in 2020 (what I could find on the spur of the moment). Not sure where they got those figs.

Comment by Jibba Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 10:33 am
Best players on the field?

The only player on the field since March is JB Pritzker

Comment by Lucky Pierre Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 10:33 am
=== He obviously is coming from a different direction than the United States District Attorney and lots of Democrats about what the word ‘best” means.===

* Enter the “Arroyo Rule” *

I think Madigan should resign, since July 18th, but that July 18th presser only reinforced that the USA has little, and gave up a quarter of a billion (with a b) in fines to maybe have ComEd help… along with a telephone number for tips.

The Arroyo Rule is in full force until Madigan reaches only a total of 59

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 10:35 am
Sacks is correct. I’ve said it since the election here and will repeat it. Madigan may be (or is) a drag on Democrats, but you can’t look at what happened across America and claim that if it weren’t for Madigan here that the Fair Tax would have passed and Democrats would have picked up seats in the U.S. House and state House. To say so is just totally disconnected from reality.

Comment by Precinct Captain Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 10:35 am
Gah, 2018.

Comment by Jibba Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 10:37 am
=== Not sure where they got those figs===

Not sure where you did, but Davis won 187,583 to 126,811 in 2016 https://www.elections.il.gov/ElectionOperations/ElectionVoteTotals.aspx

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 10:37 am
“The rich guy does have a point”

No he doesn’t. His comments state that we need Madigan to defend social services and other vital programs, but from who? That argument worked when Rauner was governor - everyone knows Madigan was invaluable in that fight. But now who are we defending them from? His friend the governor? From Don Harmon? There is no enemy with political power who is launching an assault on those priorities. There are still supermajorities in both chambers.

If you want to defend Madigan for whatever reason, I have no objection. But if you want to claim we need Madigan to defend these priorities, you have to answer the big question. From who are you defending?

Comment by Southern Skeptic Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 10:47 am
OW,

I take your point about the delay, but it lost by ten points. You really think that ground would have been made up had they started earlier?

Comment by Southern Skeptic Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 11:09 am
Mea culpa. I see now they were comparing 2020 to 2016, not comparing the two Davis/Londrigan races. Reading is fundamental. However, even Politico’s own web site shows that 2020 race as 176K to 148K, different than that quoted above. But the bigger point is that a better candidate is needed. Londrigan’s newbie political skills did not help her overcome the anti-Madigan messaging.

Comment by Jibba Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 11:12 am
===… but it lost by ten points. You really think that ground would have been made up had they started earlier?===

Your premise is flawed only to this;

No one, now, can measure the difference a full court saturation of message might have done, but it’s obvious that not only was the message not saturated, the anti-tax folks flipped it on its ear with the Frerichs Tax, misleading and obvious not truthful interpretations, and wrapped it with a trust factor.

Your asking is like asking if Jack O’Malley woulda spent money to offset Punch 10, how could it have mattered, he got run over.

The reality is passively choosing to sit can’t give us a clear view except what was tried later didn’t work at all.

Hope that helps.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 11:14 am
I’ve been harping on the same thing Precinct Captain has since election night. MJM *might* be a drag, but the basic outline of what happened in Illinois happened around the nation as well - Biden won while down-ticket Dems did not do as well as expected.

Pinning it all on Madigan is incredibly short-sighted in light of those facts. It substitutes a boogeyman for genuine reflection on why those outcomes happened nationwide

Comment by Joe Bidenopolous Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 11:20 am
==questioned efforts to push Michael Madigan out of the speakership at a time when Democrats need him most==

“need him most”: seriously? what a hoot! any smart Democrat knows it’s time to move on.

Comment by What Do We Do Next Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 11:24 am
===You really think that ground would have been made up had they started earlier?===

There is literally a whole industry built around making up that 10 points and or ever preventing it from happening. Aside from the dedicated political firms, there’s also an equivalent private sector marketing groups.

In a world where people get brand logos tattooed on their bodies, an issue advocacy campaign can keep something that’s popular in the limelight. GOP Daddy Ken just spent tens of millions to swing the support for the Fair Tax the opposite direction.

Comment by Candy Dogood Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 11:35 am
Maybe some reporters out there can go get Illinois Democrats on the record about whether Himself is truly the Democrats “best player.”

If it’s true, you definitely should keep him on the field. And, if it’s true,, why should an indictment matter? It doesn’t mean he’s convicted or anything, right?

Just keep playing to win.

Comment by JB13 Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 11:38 am
I’ve been saying this since early voting became normal–every campaign needs to be run as if the people running them understand the end isn’t Election Day. The end starts weeks beforehand.

Comment by Cheryl44 Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 11:42 am
Rich guy whose firm draws a lot of money from union pension funds supports Madigan. In other news, water is wet.

Comment by Chicagonk Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 11:55 am
===His comments state that we need Madigan to defend social services===

That’s not the point I was referring to, as is made pretty clear in the post if you bothered to even skim it.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 12:52 pm
All these people showing support publicly for MJM says he doesn’t have the 60 he needs and he is calling in favors. Not sure that will help when even a picture with MJM could be political ruin and a front page story about a rep voting for him (aka Public Official A) now after ComEd could have the same negative political results. The Rs have shown a glimpse of what is to come in two years when Dems knowingly vote for MJM in light of an FBI investigation - the public will not be kind.

Comment by Huh Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 1:05 pm
=== The Rs have shown a glimpse of what is to come in two years when Dems knowingly vote for MJM in light of an FBI investigation - the public will not be kind.===

1) They are *still* in the super-minority

2) There are new maps coming

If you can predict election outcomes without even seeing the maps by which they will be running…

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 1:13 pm
The CNN 219-203 undercuts Republican gains:
- runoff next month in LA-05 is GOPvsGOP, it will be a GOP seat
- NY-11 Congressman Max Rose conceded his race, though no AP call
- NY-24 Democrat challenger to John Katko conceded her race, though no AP call
- UT-04 No AP call, but Salt Lake City Tribune all but called race for former Oakland Raiders Super Bowl XV champ Burgess Owens, flipping seat of Congressman Ben McAdams

My count is 219-207, 9 races left.

Comment by John Lopez Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 2:39 pm
“That’s not the point I was referring to, as is made pretty clear in the post if you bothered to even skim it.”

I read it. The point Sacks was making was pretty clear: “The idea that we don’t have all of our best players on the field protecting social services, education, working families and other things Democrats care about is nonsensical.”

I read it. I just don’t agree because there no big bad Republican to defend it from.

Comment by Southern Skeptic Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 2:53 pm
Democrat Congressman Ben McAdams just conceded in #UT04, though no race call by AP, Burgess Owens is congressman-elect.

Comment by John Lopez Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 4:30 pm
==Second, Londrigan is and was a weak candidate, being a political novice and frankly a poor retail politician. Dems need a better candidate.==

A lot will depend on how the current 13th looks in 2 years after the remap, but who might have this alternate Democratic candidate have been? (Other than any of Londrigan’s primary challengers from 2018).

Perhaps recruit current GA members such as Sen. Manar (Bunker Hill), Katie Stuart (Edwardsville), maybe Sue Scherer (Decatur)? Or perhaps if the new 13th includes Gifford, maybe Frerichs if he doesn’t want to run for Treasurer again after the Fair Tax/retirement income fiasco?

Or are “alternates for Londrigan” doomed to the likes of Angel Sides (who ran as a Green in 87th Rep this year), David Gill, and Stefanie Smith?

Comment by Chatham Resident Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 5:47 pm
=== A lot will depend on how the current 13th looks in 2 years after the remap===

It will be designed to be leaning R

The Dems have 13 incumbents to protect.

The 4 GOP districts will be leaning R.

13-4 split is the tradeoff.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 16, 20 @ 6:00 pm