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Madigan can’t keep these campaign promises to his members

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Illinois

* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…

Outsiders may not get it, but it makes some sense that the majority of House Democrats still back House Speaker Michael Madigan’s reelection.

He’s been a genius at getting things done for his caucus. He is loyal to his people and has infinitely more institutional memory and can pull more strings and push more buttons than anyone alive.

In his nearly 50 years in office, Madigan has been heavily involved with four legislative remap processes and has been in the House for five of them.

Madigan has played a decisive role in every income tax increase (temporary and permanent) since the tax was established in 1969 — and he was a delegate to the constitutional convention which created it.

He has also negotiated dozens of budgets since he became House Speaker in 1983.

His campaign operation meticulously tracks the number of knocked doors in contested races and every contact made, and he reviews that data each week and calls candidates to provide his feedback. He knows how to win.

And at this moment in history, with redistricting coming up, a huge revenue shortfall, horrific budget problems, a massively destructive pandemic causing rampant suffering and, in less than two years, a midterm election under a Democratic president (with a new map), most of his members are rightly worried sick.

For these and many other reasons, this is exactly the moment when his members would need Madigan the most, and he most certainly knows this and is deftly playing on that angst as 19 of his members are in open revolt.

But the sweeping and aggressive federal investigation is this/close to Madigan now. Despite all of his protests of innocence and some reasonable arguments that he did nothing illegal, the G is obviously after Madigan’s head.

Gov. J.B. Pritzker has taken loads of heat for not pushing Madigan out of office, even though he couldn’t do it if he tried. Pritzker is up for re-election in 2022 and a Madigan re-election would certainly mean big trouble. Yes, Pritzker won by 16 points two years ago, but that was during an unpopular Republican president’s midterm against a super-weak incumbent. He’s going to have to hustle to win.

A gubernatorial confrontation with a reelected Madigan is inevitable.

Pritzker pledged during the campaign and ever since taking office that he will veto a legislative redistricting plan that isn’t “fair” which was defined (by me) in March 2018 as any proposal “that is in any way drafted or created by legislators, political party leaders and/or their staffs or allies.”

So, when Madigan told the House Black Caucus during a recent private meeting that he is the best person to draw the new map, he guaranteed that Pritzker had to veto it. There will be no finessing Pritzker’s pledge. And overriding a veto will be hugely difficult because suburbanites who ran as good government types in swing districts and true-blue progressives are gonna be in a major quandary. It’s pretty difficult to see how this fight gets as far as an override showdown.

Speaker Madigan also said during the meeting that he was prepared to pass another income tax increase if the governor requests it. Like with his remap pledge, his statement likely killed the already very slim prospects for a tax hike.

Just imagine the governor (or any vulnerable Democrat) running in 2022 with Madigan still in office, a Madigan-drawn district map in place and a Madigan tax hike. Maybe the Democrats will get lucky and the Republicans will nominate unelectable far-right candidates, but basing your plan on your opponent collapsing is never a wise idea.

So, it’s just difficult to see how Speaker Madigan can keep all the reelection campaign promises he’s making.

If he wants to avoid the risk of a new district map being possibly drawn by the Republicans after a losing veto fight, he’ll likely have to submit to a new process which won’t be nearly as advantageous to his members. A Madigan-backed tax hike is pretty much out of the question. Same goes for a gimmicky Madigan budget. And while he’s been the patronage and fixer king for decades, how much can he actually accomplish for his members when he’s under this horribly dark cloud?

No matter what, Madigan still has his unmatchable campaign prowess going for him. But if he somehow manages to flip enough votes to get re-elected in the first place and the feds don’t take him out, the reality going forward will be much different than he’s making it out to be.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 9:06 am

Comments

Is it a foregone conclusion that Pritzker will run for re-election?

He seems to, not unreasonably, been taking things personal as people continue to attack his wife and daughter for the last year. Between that and having Central IL littered with the anti-Pritzker signs, I have been assuming he wouldn’t want to keep doing this.

The lost revenue from the pandemic combined with the fair tax failure is going to create either unpopular cuts and/or unpopular flat tax increase which he will be blamed for. He will have to continue to navigate the Madigan waters of needing Madigan’s power to pull off the tough decisions needed while avoiding the corruption that encircles Madigan waters.

Agree with your thoughts and him or other dem contender have to be strongly rooting for a Darren Bailey nomination in 2022

Comment by all luck Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 9:16 am
Regardless of how the leadership contest turns out, the governor and some legislative Democrats need to rethink how a purportedly “fair” redistricting process helps advance the priorities they care about - LGBTQ rights, global warming, protecting organized labor, racial justice - while GOP-controlled states across the country continue their congressional and state legislative gerrymandering ways.

Maybe there’s a better way to do it, one that could be adopted as part of a national compact that binds all states, but unilateral disarmament when you have an advantage, makes no sense.

Also, if by some chance in 2022 the GOP won the governor’s mansion and due to “fair” maps, the legislature, it would not hesitate to capitalize on that development by further redrawing the maps to its advantage for the remainder of the decade.

The House Black Caucus - perhaps with one exception - understands this. Some suburban progressives and the governor could clearly use a tutorial.

Redistricting is something out-of-power Republicans who refuse to moderate their positions, ed boards and goo-goos with less than goo-goo funding sources care about.

Comment by Moe Berg Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 9:29 am
Yes, redistricting is all about promoting agenda and not about the protection of individual and specific members. The way some districts are drawn that have some of them with peninsulas that pick up specific members home are just happy coincidences.

If someone is able to draw a ‘fair’ map that results in a GOP majority (or anything close) should get the Nobel prize of Cartography.

Comment by OneMan Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 9:47 am
If we ask Illinoisans what they think of the DPI, we will very probably get a lot of negative answers with Madigan in them. The party needs to work on losing this image.

On the other hand, who are these pure as snow goo goo’s never doing wrong and sitting on their rumps, never lifting a finger to do real political work, wanting to cast out Madigan? What organizations did they build? What doors did they knock on? What trees did they plant?

Comment by Grandson of Man Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 9:48 am
A majority of Illinois voters care about Fair Maps and term limits Moe Berg.

Why would JB make promises to appeal to Republicans etc?

Comment by Lucky Pierre Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 9:59 am
=== If he wants to avoid the risk of a new district map being possibly drawn by the Republicans after a losing veto fight ===

A map drawn by Republicans eliminates seats held by the 19. The Chicago liberals will likely be running against each other, and Morgan, Yingling, Kifowit, Didech, Moeller…atleast half of the 19 would be gone under a Republican map.

The Democratic majority cannot save the minority — or the governor — from themselves.

“God, give us grace to accept with serenity
the things that cannot be changed,
Courage to change the things
which should be changed,
and the Wisdom to distinguish
the one from the other.

Living one day at a time,
Enjoying one moment at a time,
Accepting hardship as a pathway to peace.”

Comment by Thomas Paine Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 10:00 am
The old adage that the captain goes down with the ship isn’t meant to be interpreted that the captain must sink the ship to disembark.

Comment by Candy Dogood Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 10:01 am
===atleast half of the 19 would be gone under a Republican map.===

The shift in how folks voted in those districts over the last several cycles might not be a fluke.

What exactly is going to change between now and November of 2022 with regards to what the GOP is going to offer to the People of Illinois as their policy agenda?

Lets not pretend that the legislative map is the only reason why the Illinois GOP has as much political significance in the state house as the Whig Party does.

Comment by Candy Dogood Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 10:05 am
Here’s the sitch;

The congressional map, “protecting” 13 seats… easy-peasy.

Trying to protect 73 seats, that’s never happening.

Madigan, Speaker since 1983, less a two year, how should I put it, “sojourn”, doesn’t like supermajorities, harder to wrangle or herd cats.

You look at a map, 65-67 solid Dem seats, that’s a significant win for Democrats, requiring Raunerites and Trumpkins to flip 6-8 seats, likely not in Cook and the Collars.

Those not grasping that, welp, the map ideal is to secure a majority, not a supermajority.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 10:17 am
Love the long version of the Serenity Prayer.

Comment by James the Intolerant Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 10:23 am
==Trying to protect 73 seats, that’s never happening.==

Agreed, it’s almost impossible. There are Democratic members holding seats in the suburbs right now that were gerrymandered to be packed GOP districts. The new map might help some of those members a little. But with Trump out of the picture, an iffy economy during the Biden midterm, and a competent GOP candidate for governor, those districts are likely to snap back a bit. Seating 65 to 68 House Dems in January of ‘23 might be considered a “win” even with a skillfully drawn map.

Comment by Roman Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 10:44 am
Remap promise pretty easy because it requires compliance with Voting Rights Act which is what has been done in recent years.
Taxes will be up who can do a revised budget with few to no cuts

Comment by Annonin' Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 11:23 am
While maps of course shouldn’t be drawn to partisan advantage, there is a degree to which it’s hard for either party to “unilaterally disarm” and draw fair maps in the hope that the other party will do the same in states where they are currently in the majority and able to draw maps.

The best solution would be at the federal level, some kind of measure that would require all states to use a non-partisan method of redistricting.

Even if the goal is to draw non-partisan maps, there are competing interests at play, such as making districts as competitive as possible, making them as contiguous as possible, creating a number of majority minority districts, etc (https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/we-drew-2568-congressional-districts-by-hand-heres-how/).

That said, Illinois as a whole leans Democratic anyway, at least as far as President/Senators, and to some extent Governor. I think even a fair map would still make it more likely for Democrats to hold more seats, so there’s less reason for them to resist non-partisan redistricting absent a federal requirement.

Comment by Techie Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 11:43 am
=== it requires compliance with Voting Rights Act which is what has been done in recent years.===

This is accurate to the minority representation in the General Assembly, and the thing Raunerites and those misunderstanding the process of the map and the inherit advantages Democrats have.

As old Republicans… and now Raunerites and Trumpkins continue… the refusal to be a diverse, statewide, party comes back to haunt within the Voting Rights Act provisions.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 11:47 am
==there is a degree to which it’s hard for either party to “unilaterally disarm” and draw fair maps in the hope that the other party will do the same in states where they are currently in the majority and able to draw maps.=

And therein lies the crux. As it stands, Democrats have to outperform Republicans by about a 2-3% margin in order to get a majority in the House of Representatives due to gerrymandering in states Republicans control. When Ohio, Texas, Florida and others agree (by statute) to draw fair maps, then we can too. Until then, I am vehemently opposed to any change in the process.

Comment by Joe Bidenopolous Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 11:52 am
I agree w Techie. Until Texas and other red states have true fair maps, the overwhelming Democratic majority in Illinois should draw maps that are : overwhelming Democratic.

Comment by low level Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 11:58 am
I think some of the legislators sticking with MJM are underestimating how wounded he’ll be next year and what an albatross it’ll be for Dems (not just House Dems) politically. First rule of politics/sports is don’t beat yourselves…this is potentially a massive self-inflicted inflicted injury to start out 2021.

Comment by Veil of Ignorance Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 12:10 pm
=== hard for either party to “unilaterally disarm” and draw fair maps in the hope that the other party will do the same in states===

Stop (deliberately or otherwise) confusing reapportionment with legislative redistricting.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 12:18 pm
Madigan uses redistricting to punish and control his own party. The threat of redistricting a member out of their seat is real. Mapping to give Democrats more seats seems secondary to his goals.

Comment by Chicagonk Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 12:31 pm
==Madigan uses redistricting to punish and control his own party. The threat of redistricting a member out of their seat is real. ==

If Madigan hangs on and remains Speaker, could he punish the “19″ by remapping them out of their districts?

Such as in Rockford, Dave Vella mapped into Maurice West’s district? (West is one of the 19).

Comment by Essential State Employee Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 12:58 pm
===If Madigan hangs on and remains Speaker, could he punish the “19″ by remapping them out of their districts? ===

That is one big reason why people ain’t gonna flip.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 1:10 pm
Great insight as always, but isn’t basing your re-election plan on the Illinois GOP collapsing kind of a time tested strategy at this point?

Comment by TominChicago Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 1:30 pm
=== That is one big reason why people ain’t gonna flip. ===

Most of the population loss has been downstate.

The suburbs will gain seats. It seems unlikely that a suburban Democrat that supported Madigan for Speaker would lose their seat. Madigan needs 60 votes to pass the map.

Trump lost Kendall County, named for former slave owner Amos Kendall, confidante of Democratic President Andrew Jackson, father of patronage politics. It seems possible that redistricting will lead to a Democrat winning election there, oh the irony.

Comment by Thomas Paine Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 2:42 pm
===It seems unlikely that a suburban Democrat that supported Madigan for Speaker would lose their seat===

After pledging to vote no? C’mon.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 2:45 pm
=== It seems unlikely that a suburban Democrat that supported Madigan for Speaker would lose their seat.===

The reason the 19 put “pen to paper” and wrote a letter to defeat Madigan *after* already saying they are against Madigan being speaker says that your thought might not have merit to them.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 2:50 pm
If you look at all of the information derived from the census, it becomes theoretically possible to draw districts according to the law void of politics. But i would suspect few politicians would vote for those districts.

Comment by 618er Monday, Dec 14, 20 @ 4:24 pm