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* UPDATED x1 * New jobless claims fall nationally and in Illinois, but serious problems persist here

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U.S. states saw new jobless claims fall more than expected to reach a four-month low last week, as impending spring weather and more vaccine-driven business reopenings allow hiring to pick up.

The Department of Labor released its weekly report on new jobless claims on Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET. Here were the main metrics included in the report, compared to consensus data compiled by Bloomberg:

• Initial jobless claims, week ended March 6: 712,000 vs. 725,000 expected and a revised 754,000 during the prior week
• Continuing claims, week ended February 27: 4.144 million vs. 4.200 million expected and a revised 4.337 million during the prior week

* CBS 2…

The Illinois Department of Employment Security (IDES) reported 57,483 new unemployment claims were filed last week, a nearly 16% decrease from the week before, when 68,111 people filed.

For comparison, during the same timeframe last year, 8,727people filed claims in Illinois. That’s a 559% increase. […]

Illinois’ latest claims make up about 8% of the estimated 712,000 filed across the country last week.

There were 68,383 new unemployment claims filed during the week of Feb. 15 in Illinois.

* Lourdes Duarte, Andrew Schroedter at WGN…

There appears to be no end in sight to the avalanche of fraudulent unemployment filings in Illinois.

In the latest twist, the owner of a Northwest Side bridal shop called WGN Investigates after a stack of letters from the Illinois Department of Employment Security arrived at her business. The letters asked her to verify unemployment claims for 10 people.

But here’s the rub: They were sent to her address, but she didn’t recognize a single name. Not one person had worked at the bridal shop. There was even one in her mother’s name. […]

“The states are so overwhelmed, they haven’t figured out how to keep this from happening,” Terry Savage, a personal finance expert, said.

Savage has been tracking trends in fake unemployment claims since the start of the pandemic. Savage said scammers are constantly coming up with different ways to trick the system, including using random addresses to file claims.

*** UPDATE *** IDES…

The Illinois Department of Employment Security (IDES) announced today that the unemployment rate decreased -0.3 percentage point to 7.7 percent, while nonfarm payrolls were up +9,700 jobs in January, based on preliminary data provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and released by IDES. The December monthly change in payrolls was revised from the preliminary report, from -2,500 to -9,200 jobs. The December unemployment rate was revised from the preliminary report, rising +0.4 percentage point to 8.0 percent.

The January payroll jobs estimate and unemployment rate reflects activity for the week including the 12th. The BLS has published FAQs for the January payroll jobs and the unemployment rate.

In January, the three industry sectors with the largest over-the-month gains in employment were: Professional and Business Services (+11,500), Leisure and Hospitality (+5,100), and Other Services (+2,400). The industry sectors that reported the largest monthly payroll declines were: Financial Activities (-6,400), Construction (-3,200), and Government (-1,800).

“While the unemployment rate and job markets continue to be impacted by the ongoing effects of COVID-19, with vaccination rates continuing to increase, we are focused on building a strong recovery on the other side of this pandemic,” said Deputy Governor Dan Hynes. “This administration is fully committed to supporting individuals displaced from their jobs and ensuring small businesses and working families have the support they need to recover and grow in a post-pandemic economy.”

“Today’s data shows that Illinois is making steady progress in restoring jobs and building towards economic recovery,” said Sylvia Garcia, Acting Director of the Department of Commerce and Economic Opportunity (DCEO). “Under Governor Pritzker’s leadership, we have deployed over $1 billion to date in emergency relief programs to help some of the hardest hit businesses and communities in our state. The recent passage of the American Rescue Plan will further support our economic recovery with additional emergency relief to help build back key industries, support our workforce, and provide targeted investments for businesses and communities that need it most.”

The state’s unemployment rate was +1.4 percentage point higher than the national unemployment rate reported for January, which was 6.3 percent, down -0.4 percentage point from the previous month. The Illinois unemployment rate was up +4.2 percentage points from a year ago when it was 3.5 percent.

Compared to a year ago, nonfarm payroll employment decreased by -504,800 jobs, with losses across all major industries. The industry groups with the largest jobs decreases were: Leisure and Hospitality (-216,600), Government (-71,100) and Educational and Health Services (-65,400). Illinois nonfarm payrolls were down -8.2 percent over-the-year as compared to the nation’s -6.3 percent over-the-year decline in January.

The number of unemployed workers fell from the prior month, a -3.6 percent decrease to 473,000, and was up +114.0 percent over the same month for the prior year. The labor force was down -0.1 percent over-the-month and down -3.5 percent over-the-year. The unemployment rate identifies those individuals who are out of work and seeking employment. An individual who exhausts or is ineligible for benefits is still reflected in the unemployment rate if they actively seek work.

posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Mar 12, 21 @ 3:02 am

Comments

==In the latest twist, the owner of a Northwest Side bridal shop called WGN Investigates after a stack of letters from the Illinois Department of Employment Security arrived at her business. The letters asked her to verify unemployment claims for 10 people.==

This is called employer verification and happens in each state. If the employer is not verified, the claim can’t go forward.

Comment by Precinct Captain Friday, Mar 12, 21 @ 6:59 am
==This is called employer verification and happens in each state. If the employer is not verified, the claim can’t go forward.==

Fraudulent claims should be stopped long before it gets to this point. IP addresses outside the USA should be automatically bounced, the applicant should be subject to multiple CAPTCHAs along the way, and utilize a verification system much like credit card companies use when you sign up for a new card. (Which of these addresses have you lived at over the past 5 years? Which of these cars have you owned over the past 5 years? Etc).

I’m sure IDES is back in 1998 when it comes to this type of stuff. Thank the lord almighty, I have not had to find out.

Comment by Barn Burner Friday, Mar 12, 21 @ 7:54 am
What Barn Burner said. Any fraud prevention system that relies on the timely delivery of US Mail this year is not much of a system unfortunately.

Comment by ChicagoBars Friday, Mar 12, 21 @ 8:03 am
Maybe you two should learn to use The Google. Use it to search Equifax and Experian data breaches, where information on a combined nearly 170 million Americans was stolen, in particular the credit verification information and personal histories of people. And you may not like the mail, but you would certainly be complaining if all of these notices were emailed to who knows who at who knows what addresses. And considering many small businesses don’t use a professional email tied to a clear domain, how would you weed that out?

Next time, keep up or keep quiet.

Comment by Precinct Captain Friday, Mar 12, 21 @ 8:10 am
Precinct Captain I am specifically endorsing all the, very obvious, not personal information requiring, gatekeeping defenses that IDES is seemingly not using as a first line of defense. To wit:

“Fraudulent claims should be stopped long before it gets to this point. IP addresses outside the USA should be automatically bounced, the applicant should be subject to multiple CAPTCHAs along the way, and utilize a verification system much like credit card companies use when you sign up for a new card.”

Make it harder, or at least more time consuming, for fraudsters to submit. What problem do you have with that?

Now let’s have CMS give out another $9.5 million no bid contract to Deloitte Consulting (snark) like they did in April to fix their systems (double snark), and get some claims gatekeeping in.

Comment by ChicagoBars Friday, Mar 12, 21 @ 8:31 am
==Any fraud prevention system that relies on the timely delivery of US Mail this year is not much of a system unfortunately.==
I don’t have an account with IDES with an email attached. The only way I found out about the fraudulent claim in my name was the letter I received confirming my address change.

Comment by Sangamo Girl Friday, Mar 12, 21 @ 8:35 am
Time to go back to having an office in every county and reporting to that office to sign up. We live in Southern Illinois and you have to drive 70 miles to visit your closest office.

Comment by Nieva Friday, Mar 12, 21 @ 8:59 am
- ChicagoBars - Friday, Mar 12, 21 @ 8:31 am:

When’s the last time you had to file an unemployment insurance claim?

Comment by Precinct Captain Friday, Mar 12, 21 @ 9:00 am
In January, one of these fraudulent claims came to my address with my husband’s first name, my last name (which is different) and listing my previous employer from 16 years ago. In a separate envelope from Key Bank was the debit cards with the funds! two days later got the same two envelopes, including one debit card, in the name of the guy who used to rent this house before we bought it decades ago. This is staggering.

Comment by 32nd Ward Roscoe Village Friday, Mar 12, 21 @ 9:06 am
Defending the indefensible is not a good look, Precinct Captain. The system is broken. The fraud is out of control.

Comment by Responsa Friday, Mar 12, 21 @ 9:20 am
Barn Burner is way off base. The absolutely wrong thing is to make it harder to log in. CAPCHA should be banned and all those “what was your first car” questions.
When I was unemployed in 2005, I had to file in person. I showed my photo ID and a pay stub. Then I could check in by phone. Today that would be phone or on-line. They can give you a username and random password when you file - in person.
Plastic face shields like the banks and some merchants use would protect the IDES employees.

Comment by Streamwood Retiree Friday, Mar 12, 21 @ 9:26 am
Dear Precinct Captain,

I took a major paycut instead of filing for UI. Lucky me.

Helped a few laid off bartenders apply but was doing so remotely so won’t pretend to be an authority on what systems IDES had in place in April or now. But month after month IDES fraud reports concerns continue to hit the news.

So for the sake of argument what is your suggestion for improving IDES applicant systems for preventing fraud? Beyond hoping IDES delivers a letter to the employer who, in my hospitality industry corner of the world, has a 5-10% chance of being closed for good already? Cheers.

Comment by Precinct Captain Friday, Mar 12, 21 @ 9:30 am
- Responsa - Friday, Mar 12, 21 @ 9:20 am:

Please learn to read for comprehension.

Comment by Precinct Captain Friday, Mar 12, 21 @ 9:41 am
One member of our family just got a second bank debit card for unemployment funds. This one came from US Bank. Earlier state was using Key Bank. The effort to report and cancel seemed to take a long time. Seems like problems persist

Comment by Annonin' Friday, Mar 12, 21 @ 10:07 am
====Defending the indefensible is not a good look, Precinct Captain. The system is broken. The fraud is out of control.

But the system is catching these–how is that evidence of it being out of control?

Comment by ArchPundit Friday, Mar 12, 21 @ 12:51 pm
The issue is that women are dropping out of the labor force so the rate being steady doesn’t fully explain the situation. To be clear, that’s how the number is calculated so the report is accurate, but there is a need to look at the other measures to understand the full picture. It’s going to take some time to get back to where we were. The virus first, then we get back.

Comment by ArchPundit Friday, Mar 12, 21 @ 12:56 pm
The update is potentially good news. The labor force reductions have slowed to almost nothing. That could be an indication that unemployment is or is close to bottoming out.

Comment by ArchPundit Friday, Mar 12, 21 @ 1:45 pm
Illinois appears to have a huge amount of “Fraudulent claims” for Unemployment Benefits. Which state has the largest amount of fraudulent claims for unemployment and why?

Comment by M Friday, Mar 12, 21 @ 3:31 pm
“The issue is that women are dropping out of the labor force so the rate being steady doesn’t fully explain the situation. To be clear, that’s how the number is calculated so the report is accurate, but there is a need to look at the other measures to understand the full picture.”

Women had to drop out of the labor force in order to take care of their children during full or partial remote learning.

Comment by Mama Friday, Mar 12, 21 @ 3:35 pm
- M - Friday, Mar 12, 21 @ 3:31 pm:

The internet you used to post the comment is the same internet you can use to research and learn!

Michigan: https://www.fox17online.com/news/problem-solvers/house-committee-questions-uia-on-delayed-unemployment-payments-offices-reopening-and-fraud

Ohio: https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/2021/03/11/unemployment-fraud-ohio-has-problem-whats-fix/6921696002/

Georgia: https://www.wfxg.com/story/43488197/georgia-department-of-labor-officials-fear-unemployment-fraud-rising

Comment by Precinct Captain Friday, Mar 12, 21 @ 4:16 pm
- M - Friday, Mar 12, 21 @ 3:31 pm:

More research, more learning:

“California has been the biggest target, with an estimated $11 billion in fraudulent payments and an additional $19 billion in suspect accounts. Colorado has paid out nearly as much to scammers - an estimated $6.5 billion - as it has to people who filed legitimate unemployment claims.”

https://abc7chicago.com/unemployment-fraud-cases-reporting-tax-form/10377951/

Comment by Precinct Captain Friday, Mar 12, 21 @ 4:18 pm
Also if they’re feeling so good about the unemployment being lower than ever, why is the call back queue time currently longer than ever? I’m hearing between 4-5 weeks from most folks.

Comment by Commisar Gritty Friday, Mar 12, 21 @ 4:34 pm