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* US House editor of the Cook Political Report…
ILLINOIS: has the potential to be Dems' biggest redistricting weapon of the cycle. Once again, it's losing a seat. But Dems could replace the current 13D-5R map (left) with a 14D-3R map (right) - and they might need to to have any chance of holding the House majority. pic.twitter.com/WnLY0lHL5J
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) March 12, 2021
Notice that he keeps the current Latino district intact. There will be pressure to create two Latinx districts in the coming mapmaking process. Also, the chair of the House Redistricting Committee is Rep. Elizabeth Hernandez and the Senate’s Redistricting Committee chair is Sen. Omar Aquino.
He does have a point about creating another Downstate Democratic district by correcting the Dems’ 2011 mistake and no longer splitting all of their Metro East turf into two districts. He would take away some GOP voters from Cheri Bustos and give her a few more Dems. Lauren Underwood does even better in this map.
* Politico…
Rep. Adam Kinzinger’s congressional seat could be eliminated when Illinois conducts its remap, according to the Cook Report’s David Wasserman.
Taking out the current 16th Congressional District makes “geographic sense,” Wasserman said in his subscription-only report. […]
The 16th District stretches from Indiana up to the border with Wisconsin and touches the fast-growing Chicago exurbs and some downstate districts. “More rural/GOP parts of it could go to Rep. Darin LaHood’s 18th CD and Rep. Mary Miller’s 15th CD, while its Rockford suburbs and the liberal university town of DeKalb could go to Democratic seats,” writes Wasserman.
* Back to Wasserman…
In the map above (right), 13/17 districts would have voted for Clinton *and* Biden by 10%+, up from 10/18 under the current lines.
Underwood's #IL14 could lose Lake/McHenry counties and pick up DeKalb, Aurora, Elgin or Bolingbrook, moving it from Trump +4 in '16 to Clinton +10.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) March 12, 2021
Finally, Dems could draw one heavily D seat in southern IL instead of two weak ones, fixing a strategic error they made in 2011.
They could stuff East St. Louis, Alton and Belleville into Davis (R)'s #IL13, converting it from Trump +4 to Biden +10 - perhaps dooming his career.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) March 12, 2021
Thoughts?
…Adding… Related…
* Illinois Legislative Leaders Separately Discuss What is a ‘Fair Map’
* Changing face of Illinois Democrats evident in Madigan’s successors
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 9:16 am
Sorry, comments are closed at this time.
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I support the creation of an Eastern Block congressional district.
Comment by Candy Dogood Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 9:21 am
JB promising to veto any map not drawn fairly is yet another ruse
Comment by Lucky Pierre Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 9:29 am
The entire concept and process is embarrassing but with Republican run states certain to aggressively manipulate the maps it follows that Democratic run states should do so as well.
The risk of failing to do so is to empower the insurrectionist far right which controls the house republican conference in DC.
Comment by slow down Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 9:32 am
The potential for a second Latino seat is the big question mark. The pressure to draw one is going to be pretty strong, particularly because it’s going to be tough to draw many more Latino GA seats. It would really scramble the Chicago area congressional map, probably leaving Marie Newman without a district. The ball is in Chuy’s court.
Comment by Roman Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 9:32 am
Isn’t there already an Eastern Block congressional district?
Comment by Sweet N Sour Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 9:32 am
=== probably leaving Marie Newman without a district. ===
One could only hope.
Comment by Cluster Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 9:34 am
So the ear muff district would remain as is in this scenario?
Comment by Chicagonk Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 9:35 am
The only goal that Dems should have is securing 13 districts they know they will have Dem congressional members.
They can draw it to have the tendencies (or trends) work their way to 14-3… but why be so greedy when it wasn’t to long ago that a 13-4 outcome would be “most ideal”, and not the “base line”
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 9:45 am
This is one reason elected officials enjoy such low approval numbers. Purely partisan mapping with the sole purpose of party majority is so far from “good government” or “serving the people”. Both parties do it, and it is reprehensible.
Comment by Donnie Elgin Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 9:46 am
@Chicagonk, “as in” might not be quite true, but it definetely still exists.
Comment by Perrid Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 9:48 am
2nd Hispanic district? My guess is the 8th and/or 14th, currently represented by Raja and Underwood. Succession planning would have Cristina Castro ready to serve 8th/14th when Raja/Underwood run for Durbin’s Senate seat. The other Hernandez in state House, Barbara Hernandez of Aurora who’s only 28, could be seen as future congressional material when Foster calls it a career in 11th. That could bring as many as 3 Hispanics in IL congressional delegation in next 10 years.
Comment by John Lopez Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 9:50 am
potential for a second Latino seat is the big question mark … probably leaving Marie Newman without a district.
And if I am on a redrawing committee, I would care why? How many chips does she have to call in?
Seems like the ultimate of no brainers.
Comment by Fav Human Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 9:59 am
=They could stuff East St. Louis, Alton and Belleville into Davis (R)’s #IL13,=
While they’re at it, could they also try to pull off thinly extending IL13 all the way down to Carbondale (and maybe Cairo)–while keeping Bost’s Murphysboro in the 12th? Even if by then it meant dropping more of the GOP-leaning rural areas in the current 13th (e.g., Greene, Jersey, parts of Macoupin) or even giving up BloNo or C/U to either Bustos or even bringing a Chicago-area Dem district south to either of the Twin Cities?
Comment by EssentialStateEmployeeFromChatham Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 10:14 am
Wasserman also tweeted (Rich didn’t include) a hypothesis according to his conversations w/ IL Democrats of swapping the 11th and 14th districts, with Underwood’s new 14th being focused to her Will County base while absorbing Joliet to protect her, and Foster gaining much of McHenry County, plus areas he represented during his 2 terms in Congress including Fermi Lab in the 14th. Underwood’s Farm Team PAC is backing candidates in Joliet, Aurora, North Aurora and DeKalb for the April 6 local elections which may indicate she’s trying to build name ID outside current 14th this spring.
Comment by John Lopez Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 10:17 am
If the Dems do this hypothetical remap they are all but ensuring Kinzinger runs statewide which I don’t think they’d want to happen.
Comment by Fair Maps Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 10:22 am
“This is one reason elected officials enjoy such low approval numbers. Purely partisan mapping with the sole purpose of party majority is so far from “good government” or “serving the people”. Both parties do it, and it is reprehensible.”
Donnie - I don’t quibble with you that elected officials have low approval numbers but this redistricting stuff is not why. Its all inside baseball to the voters and only interesting to hard core fans of politics like the readers of CapFax.
Comment by Paddyrollingstone Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 10:22 am
==Both parties do it, and it is reprehensible.==
But only one party has drafted and passed legislation to end it.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/democrats-rethink-u-s-voting-system-what-s-massive-h-n1260284
Comment by supplied_demand Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 10:23 am
The only thing certain in the remap process is that the Dems in the legislature will maximize minority participation and won’t be losing Dem leaning seats unless the Gov vetoes the Bill pursuant to a “fairness” rationale. Assuming someone;s Congressional District will be targeted or the map will be just tweaked here and there is just a simple assumption. And we all know happens when you ASSUME.
Comment by Harris Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 10:24 am
“but ensuring Kinzinger runs statewide which I don’t think they’d want to happen”
I said it about a month ago on these pages.
Look for Lauf and Kinzinger to dispute the primary for GOP Govenor
Comment by Julian Perez Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 10:33 am
=== Look for Lauf and Kinzinger to dispute the primary for GOP Govenor===
You were wrong a month ago. You’re wrong now.
Why run for governor with all the challenges Pritzker is facing that you’d inherit?
Where ya going to come up with $175 million, and keep Trumpkins in the fold as you run towards the center?
Lauf is not a serious person.
Taking Lauf serious in any way is foolish thinking
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 10:35 am
So Governor Pritzker, after vowing not to gerrymander the map, is going to sign an even *more* gerrymandered map?
Comment by lake county democrat Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 10:36 am
“Lauf is not a serious person”
Yet, according to Dave Wasserman’s tweet, many Dems “figure he’d lose a primary to a pro-Trump candidate anyway”
Comment by Julian Perez Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 10:39 am
===Yet===
… nothing you typed made Lauf any more of a serious person.
Lauf retweets conspiracy theorists, an ardent Trumpkin, carpetbagger, seemingly trying to set up the grift and “choosing” a district to do so by seemingly “relevant” only to herself.
Anything else?
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 10:41 am
=== Taking Lauf serious in any way is foolish thinking ===
We’ll see how Lauf’s event in Rockford tomorrow night, headlined by Scott Presler and Kim Klacik, plays out.
People who don’t take Lauf seriously are letting their own unfounded fears prejudice their thinking.
Comment by John Lopez Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 10:46 am
Wonder who they have in mind to run in that 15th congressional district on the right. Yep seems like a fair map.
Comment by Yep Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 10:57 am
===Yep seems like a fair map. ===
You’d be hard-pressed to convince any Democrat to include reapportionment in the Fair Map debate as long as other states are gerrymandering for the other party.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 10:59 am
Looking at that map makes my head hurt. Depending on where the furthest most point of the 13th is, I will be in one of three bad options, the 13th, 15th, or 16th. I would be okay with extending Bustos to Blo-No / Northern part of McLean County.
Comment by Downstate left-wing libertarian Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 11:23 am
A statewide poll CHANGE Illinois commissioned found that an overwhelming 75 percent of voters support the creation of an independent commission to draw political maps.
The poll of 603 likely Illinois voters was conducted by Fako Research and Margin of Era Opinion Research.
The poll also found voters strongly agree — 74 percent — that Gov. J.B. Pritzker should work to help push for getting a question about the creation of such a commission on the November general election ballot.
https://www.changeil.org/2020/03/poll-shows-voters-overwhelming-want-governor-pritzker-to-push-for-fair-maps/
Way back in 2018 JB actually promised to back an independent commission to draw the maps.
In discussing his support for fair maps earlier this year, Pritzker stated, “We should amend the (Illinois) constitution to create an independent commission to draw legislative maps.” And there is no reason to doubt his support of reform as genuine. Pritzker gave $50,000 to the 2014 fair maps initiative, throwing his support behind such an initiative long before he ran for governor.
Pritzker even pledged that as governor he would veto a gerrymandered map should one come to his desk.
https://www.chicagotribune.com/opinion/commentary/ct-perspec-remap-illinois-reform-jb-pritzker-1109-story.html
Comment by Lucky Pierre Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 11:33 am
not sure the Gov would be so inclined to support a map that leaves Kinzinger or Davis with the only option of up or out.
Comment by dirksen Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 11:37 am
Davis could win a gop Guv primary and beat J.B. .
Comment by Cowboy Bbb Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 11:52 am
=You’d be hard-pressed to convince any Democrat to include reapportionment in the Fair Map debate as long as other states are gerrymandering for the other party.=
Yep, and guess what? At least in Illinois, the GA controls the process, so that map thinking goes down to the legislature, because you can’t get the Federal representation you want without the state representation to draw the maps.
Comment by Joe Bidenopolous Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 11:55 am
===Davis could win===
Why would he want to be governor?
Davis also voted twice against Trump’s impeachmentS, voted against Covid relief, isn’t Davis also pro-life?
Hmm.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 11:55 am
Love it. Jam them.
Comment by low level Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 12:13 pm
=Davis could win a gop Guv primary and beat J.B.=
Only if the Eastern Bloc accomplishes their goal of secession. Donald Trump is an albatross for any Republican in the greater Chicago area particularly for those that voted against his impeachment. Couple that with Pritzker’s ability to fund his reelection and it’s hard to see anyone in the ILGOP - today - that presents a credible threat.
Comment by Pundent Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 12:19 pm
If I were an aspirant GOP politician and I wanted to be governor of a state, I’m pretty confident I’d find an excuse to move to a different state where the GOP caucuses in the state legislature haven’t been relegated to permanent super minority status with no foreseeable end in sight, and certainly no realistic road map to changing it.
I’m not suggesting it’s not feasible for a Republican to win state wide in Illinois, but it’s going to require a series of very unlikely things to occur and funding that can only be found in the personal fortunes of hedge fund megalomaniacs. The IL GOP can always day dream, but the electorate doesn’t have a pallet for what the GOP is serving, and the IL GOP has no interest in serving a majority of Illinois’ body politic.
Comment by Candy Dogood Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 12:19 pm
Think about the joys of being governor. Pension debt has gone from $270 Bn to$315 Bn during unprecedented stock market gains. Bill backlog still $10 Bn plus. No tax increase in the foreseeable future. It’s not a job I would want.
Comment by Blue Dog Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 12:23 pm
voted against Covid relief?
Both previous Covid bills had huge bipartisan support- 2 trillion in March of 2020 and the 900 billion in December, because they were about COVID relief.
Every Republican voted against the 1.9 trillion (40 percent of the total Federal budget in an ordinary year) because it was obviously a lot more on the liberal wish list than just Covid relief.
All Republicans know all of that I am sure,
Comment by Lucky Pierre Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 12:28 pm
For those complaining that this is gerrymandering on the Democratic side, then ask your Republican friends to support HR1 in Congress. Among the many voting reforms is the requirement for an independent redistricting commission in every state.
Comment by Nathan Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 12:29 pm
My only critique is you can make the 17/13 a lot better, though obviously quite a bit more ugly.
Have the 13th she’d its rural areas and Bloomington for more of Springfield and Metroeast. Have the 17th shed its rural areas and snake it to Bloomington. You can get up with two very skinny districts that vote something Clinton +10 in 2016 and presumably even more for Biden in 2020.
Though that’d likely be a stretch for the fairness angle.
Comment by Nick Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 12:43 pm
bottom line people like Rodney Davis have to go, the guy been nothing but a political hack from day one and has never worked a real job in his life outside of flipping burgers at his dad/d McDonalds. is a bought and paid for conservative as almost all are
Comment by truthteller Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 12:45 pm
===headlined by Scott Presler and Kim Klacik===
Who?
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 12:45 pm
=== voted against Covid relief?===
The relief for restaurants, Davis voted no.
The checks to families, Davis voted no.
Extended unemployment insurance, Davis voted no.
Help for Illinois munis and the state to offset covid costs, Davis voted no.
Shall I go on?
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 12:48 pm
- John Lopez -
If you’re flacking for Lauf, make sure you get money up front.
If you’re not, dude, might as well give her your password and let her tweet directly from it, lol
===Scott Presler===
Isn’t this the guy who was called out for his racist thoughts of Muslims?
Your touting a person that Muslims are accusing of racist thoughts as a supporter of Lauf?
That’s odd.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 12:54 pm
“people like Rodney Davis have to go”
Truthteller,
Rodney beat Gillin 2012, and people opined that Rodney didn’t face a “real opponent”.
In 2014, he took on Ann Callis, daughter of a judge, and one who would “take back the seat”, particularly since National Dems made it a high target. He won with 59% of the vote.
In 2016, they said that Callis was tainted in 2014, because she and her father were Madison County judges. So the Dems put up Mark Wicklund, a Madison County Board Member. Davis won 59% of the vote
In 2018, Betsy Londrigan was the savior for the district. Well funded. Good background. Most on Capitol Fax predicted that Davis was done. Davis prevailed.
In 2020, Betsy ran again. This time was supposed to be a shoo-in….just because. Davis won by 9%.
Despite all the protestations of Davis on this board, the people of his district have refused to replace him even when the Democrats put up their next “dream candidate”.
Comment by Blue state Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 12:59 pm
==All Republicans know all of that I am sure,==
And as a person who incessantly likes to quote polls, you would also know that a majority of people backed the most recent bill.
Comment by Demoralized Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 1:07 pm
If Rodney does get drawn out, will he take a crack at becoming governor or senator? He can pass off as a moderate Republican, but he is anti abortion and anti gun control. Every nominee that has won in general has been pro choice or supportive of gun control. Don’t know how this will do for him in Chicagoland area.
Comment by ILNative Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 2:32 pm
The relief for restaurants, Davis voted no.
The checks to families, Davis voted no.
Extended unemployment insurance, Davis voted no.
Help for Illinois munis and the state to offset covid costs, Davis voted no.
Yes, please do. Those items would have passed with bipartisan support. its the other 80%….
Comment by Say What? Monday, Mar 15, 21 @ 4:18 pm
I have the misfortune of having “Where’s Rodney?” as my Congress critter.
Anyone who thinks “Where’s Rodney?” could win a statewide contest needs to share what s/he is smoking with the rest of us.
Look at the numbers “Where’s Rodney?” gets in Champaign-Urbana in each of his races.
He’d do that poorly, or worse, in Chicago and the collars.
And between Chicago, the collars, Champaign-Urbana, and probably Bloomington-Normal, he’d get blown out.
The “Where’s Rodney?” cheerleaders need to remember that land doesn’t vote; people do.
And there simply aren’t enough dumb people in Illinois to power “Where’s Rodney?” over the line as governor or senator.
Now, if the counties that make up the Eastern Bloc manage to secede, or if “Where’s Rodney?” moves to Indiana/Iowa/Wisconsin/Missouri, he might win in one of those areas.
But there aren’t enough stupid people in Illinois–as Illinois is currently organized–for “Where’s Rodney?” to win a statewide race.
Comment by Lynn S. Tuesday, Mar 16, 21 @ 12:13 am
I’m not a Twitter person, so it’s kind of hard for me to make sense of those maps shown. I’d really benefit from some county lines or city names being added to the proposed maps.
Why can’t they draw a map with a district from roughly Kankakee (or the South suburbs) to Champaign-Urbana that would be safe for a Democrat to win and hold?
I think I can pretty safely say that about 80,000 of my fellow C-U citizens would have even more problems with Mary Miller (or someone of her ilk) as our congress critter, than we do with “Where’s Rodney?”.
Comment by Lynn S. Tuesday, Mar 16, 21 @ 12:34 am