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Harmon talks remap, looks to Oklahoma for possible deadline solution

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An Illinois Senate committee will hold its first hearing Wednesday to begin the process of redrawing congressional and state legislative districts in line with the 2020 census, despite the fact that detailed census data will likely be unavailable until September.

Senate President Don Harmon, D-Oak Park, said in an interview that despite the delay by the Census Bureau, he expects the General Assembly to complete the process before the June 30 deadline set in the state constitution.

“Well, the delay in the census data is certainly a new challenge, in a year full of challenges. But we’re prepared to forge ahead with our obligation to draw a map before June 30, as we’re required to do by the Constitution,” Harmon said.

Normally, states would receive the detailed “block-level” data from the Census Bureau in early April following the decennial census, but the process was delayed in 2020, largely due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

* Capitol News Illinois…

Under the Illinois Constitution, if lawmakers fail to approve new maps by June 30, the process is automatically handed over to an eight-member, bipartisan Legislative Redistricting Commission. That panel would then have until Aug. 10 to produce maps that have the support of at least five members. If it fails to meet that deadline, one more person would be chosen at random from a preapproved list to serve on the commission and the deadline would be extended to Oct. 5.

Harmon, however, said he does not believe that will be necessary, and the first committee hearing will feature testimony from the National Conference of State Legislatures about how other states are approaching the challenge.

“We know other states are getting started with their redistricting process as well, Iowa is kicking off their process,” he said. “Oklahoma seems to be a little bit ahead of us. Oklahoma evidently has announced that it’s going to begin using the 2019 estimated data from the American Community Survey, which in the past has been a fairly reliable predictor of what the final census data will look like.”

Keep an eye on the Oklahoma option.

* Crain’s…

Senate President Don Harmon promises “a thoughtful, thorough, transparent process where everyone has a seat,” and that he and Welch share a belief that a fair map is one that reflects the racial diversity of Illinois.

Harmon says it’s too early to preordain how many majority-Black districts might be lost. “We have a proud tradition in Illinois of ensuring minority representation … that will continue to be a guiding principle.”

Harmon made state Sen. Omar Aquino, who is Latino, a chair and state Sen. Elgie Sims, who is Black, vice-chair (similarly in the House, Rep. Elizabeth Hernandez is chair, and Curtis J. Tarver is vice-chair). “For communities that have been traditionally marginalized, the African-American community, the Latino/Latina/Latinx community to not only have a seat at the table, but to have the gavel, is an important message to the residents of Illinois that all voices are going to be heard,” Harmon says. “They’ve both been staunch advocates for their communities and for good government, and I trust they’ll be able to lead a diverse and representative committee through their process.”

* Tribune…

Any map is certain to draw a legal challenge and the accuracy of the data used would likely provide a new avenue to contest the final product.

Kimball Brace, a national redistricting expert who has worked generally for Democrats, including in Illinois, called redistricting the process of “the nonstop hiring of lawyers and expert witnesses” in court challenges.

But Brace also notes that questions about the accuracy of the census results are legal fodder in defending the use of other data to draw the maps.

“There is an added dimension to this data question. And that is the question of how good is the census anyway?” Brace said. “Did the Trump administration do a good job or not a good job? That is … what is starting to get talked about and argued back and forth, but it certainly is a realistic question mark right now.”

* NPR Illinois…

NPR Illinois: People get very animated about some of the weirdly shaped legislative districts and congressional districts and wards in Chicago. Does that make your list of things to worry about? Or is it more important to join minority communities to create a district for that population, no matter how “weird” it looks?

Harmon: [Laughs] Too much importance is attached to shapes. It would be lovely if everything were organized in rectangles. But Illinois is not a rectangle, and there are plenty of municipalities in the state that are incredibly irregular shaped themselves. What’s important in putting together a fair map is one that reflects the communities of interest and ties them together and gives everybody a seat at the table.

NPR Illinois: Speaking of rectangles, Some folks point to states like Iowa, which does map making via computer, and ends up having mostly square legislative districts. But of course, Iowa is a state with a much more homogenous population than Illinois. Is there a happy medium for folks who advocate for that sort of extreme nonpartisan process?

Harmon: I think that the Iowa process has been sold as something it is not. A computer doesn’t draw the districts; the people programming the computer do. Iowa is more homogenous, but there’s not a single African American in the Iowa Senate. And I don’t know that is a question of chance or or not. Illinois has a richly diverse community, and has led the way on representation of minority communities, particularly African Americans. And I wouldn’t trade places with Iowa on that score any day.

There’s additional info in all those links, particularly in Hannah Meisel’s interview, so click those links if you’re really interested in this topic. Subscribers also have additional information. Click here and here.

posted by Rich Miller
Wednesday, Mar 17, 21 @ 11:30 am

Comments

I think the bar here is pretty low. The map just has to look less crazy. Has to trend along natural boundaries as much as possible.

But the tension will always be there: partisan or not, do you group people with shared interests into the same box? Or do you group those interests in to more boxes so they have a more equitable stake in the decisions about their lives.

Comment by Ok Wednesday, Mar 17, 21 @ 11:39 am
– There is an added dimension to this data question. And that is the question of how good is the census anyway? –

So we can just ignore the results of a federal census?

The future will be fun, especially when Texas, Florida, and other red states realize this could somehow be a legally defensible position.

Comment by JB13 Wednesday, Mar 17, 21 @ 11:42 am
Governor Pritzker: “As I’ve said many times before, I’m going to veto any map that is unfair and it’s important to me that we have districts that are drawn so that they’re competitive…We want to give the voters the best opportunity that we can to elect the people that they want to. “I want a fair map process. I don’t know whether we’ll be able to get an amendment put through in the legislative session, but I do know that in the end when we get the Census done and when we actually go to drawing the maps, it’s important to me that those maps be drawn in a fair fashion.”

Governor, keep your promise.

Comment by lake county democrat Wednesday, Mar 17, 21 @ 11:45 am
==A computer doesn’t draw the districts; the people programming the computer do.==

This is a critical point.

Comment by Precinct Captain Wednesday, Mar 17, 21 @ 11:51 am
there’s not a single African American in the Iowa Senate.

There are however 5 in the Iowa house, which is within the expected number based on population.

A computer doesn’t draw the districts; the people programming the computer do

The program does. The program can be made public giving excellent transparency.

He’s playing semantic games, which might portend something for his map.

Comment by Fav Human Wednesday, Mar 17, 21 @ 11:53 am
And they’re off and running. The House Dem and Senate Dem horses are neck and neck. The Cong. Dem Horse is following close behind. The Gov. horse striving to be relevant is behind the three. Lagging far behind are the GQP horses.

Naturally, my horses represent the map concepts coming from the respective groups. The Dem problem will be to meld their interests into winners for the IL GA map race and another for the Cong. map. The famous trainer of multiple winning races is not in retirement. How the new trainers respond to the challenge will be interesting.

The only sure bet is that the GQP horses might as well go back to the stables. Their trainers will whine more than their horses neigh. Complain as they may to race officials, it will be to no avail.

Comment by Norseman Wednesday, Mar 17, 21 @ 11:55 am
===which might portend something for his map===

Ya think? lol

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Mar 17, 21 @ 11:57 am
If you win an election, you can draw a map. Stop complaining and start winning. Hooray for Senator Harmon.

Comment by Winner Wednesday, Mar 17, 21 @ 11:57 am
===So we can just ignore the results of a federal census? ===

The Illinois Constitution only requires decennial redistricting. It does not require they use the most recent census.

Comment by Rich Miller Wednesday, Mar 17, 21 @ 11:58 am
=== Governor, keep your promise. ===

Fair is in the eye of the beholder. A good politician will already have his best wordsmith working on the weaselly worded signing statement.

With SCOTUS on record letting the remap politic fur fly, IL Dems would be foolish to not take advantage of their advantage. Considering the danger the GQP poses to our democracy, we need the folks to use every tool they have to fight back.

Comment by Norseman Wednesday, Mar 17, 21 @ 12:00 pm
Norseman - I agree, there’s some weasle room there, but it’s hard to read his entire quote and jibe it with Harmon’s. As you may know (I don’t expect anyone to read, let alone remember, my posts!) I strongly disagree on the rest: gerrymandering is an attack on voters, full stop. Its effects aren’t just Dem/GOP partisan: it has the effect of decreasing centrists and increasing wingnuts. When a party tries to minimize the power of its voters as much as Constitutionally possible in order to preordain the results, it’s anti-democratic per se. The ends don’t justify the means.

Comment by lake county democrat Wednesday, Mar 17, 21 @ 12:23 pm
Let’s follow Oklahoma. There is a newly proposed law to open hunting season on Sasquatch’s. And a $2M dollar award if you capture one live.

Comment by flea Wednesday, Mar 17, 21 @ 12:42 pm
Lake, I agree that remap reform is needed, but for it to work it has to be accomplished across the nation. Otherwise, you will have political environment more unbalanced than it is already.

We have just experienced a fair election with the highest voter turnout in decades. The GQP responded with the Big Lie that it was rigged and illegitimate. That lie led to an insurrection intent on overthrowing the election and widespread efforts to suppress future voting. That party continues to create falsehoods to game the system in their favor. That constitutes the more immediate and egregious threat to our democracy.

Comment by Norseman Wednesday, Mar 17, 21 @ 1:21 pm
I’m a Democrat, but The Illinois Democrats had better not revert to old-style map drawing in 2021. With polls showing fair / independent maps favored by 75% of Illinoisans, incumbents had better not try to pull a fast one. I know, I know, this is ILLINOIS - not a state known for government ethics but…

Comment by west wing Wednesday, Mar 17, 21 @ 1:41 pm
=== I think that the Iowa process has been sold as something it is not. A computer doesn’t draw the districts; the people programming the computer do. ===

Senate Leader Harmon is making a very good point here. The criteria that Iowa’s computer program uses is to make an intentional effort to avoid splitting a county between two congressional districts, or two state house districts so that the basic idea is that all of the residents of Iowa County below to the same house district, senate district, and congressional district.

This is where Iowa’s 3.15 million residents spread over 99 counties becomes a very important factor. Polk County, the largest county has a population around 490,000 and therefore can belong to exactly 1 congressional district. Comparing this to Cook County, with it’s population of around 5,100,000 means Cook County still gets split into multiple districts.

The criteria for writing the legislative districts in Iowa then starts looking at trying to put 100% of a municipality into the same district, and if the municipality is too big, trying to make the dividing line the existing township boarders, etc.

I am not overly convinced that this approach within Chicago or Cook county would be a good idea in the long run because it would create some very interesting political power dynamics, and create a significant impact on the process the state uses to fill legislative vacancies and could also pose some significant risks to disenfranchising different demographics in a way that would maybe illegal.

Iowa’s process also requires nesting, so 100% of a house district or Senate district should be within the same congressional district if possible (this will get harder as Iowa continues to lose congressional seats). I like the idea of nesting legislative seats withing congressional seats, but from the stand point of our state’s ability to impact it’s congressional delegation, having more legislators that can hassle members of congress might be a good thing for their constituents.

===Iowa is more homogenous, but there’s not a single African American in the Iowa Senate. And I don’t know that is a question of chance or or not. Illinois has a richly diverse community, and has led the way on representation of minority communities, particularly African Americans.===

This is another excellent point, but perhaps the new map will create a new opportunity for Iowa to find an ability to represent more of it’s people in it’s legislative chambers, but I would put good money on any map that Iowa’s current process draws that would reduce the number of GOP legislators would face a court challenge, or result in a change of law to allow them to gerrymander.

Iowa has some very excellent state representatives that reflect the diversity of their constituents, but when you look at how their senate districts have been arranged by a “computer program” the other house district that makes up the senate district they’re nested in is typically very differently aligned from the political party they represent.

This probably isn’t intentional, but folks in Iowa also are typically unaware as to how difficult Iowa made it for a black person to own or buy farm land in Iowa in the 19th century.

Comment by Candy Dogood Wednesday, Mar 17, 21 @ 1:52 pm
=== With polls showing fair / independent maps ===

There are no such thing as truly fair and independent maps.

Comment by Cluster Wednesday, Mar 17, 21 @ 1:59 pm
=== Its effects aren’t just Dem/GOP partisan: it has the effect of decreasing centrists and increasing wingnuts. ===

Lake County Democrat - So who are the wingnut legislators in Lake County that are elected because of the gerrymandered map?

Comment by Cluster Wednesday, Mar 17, 21 @ 2:06 pm
While district maps can be more or less fair, this very simple graphic puts the lie to the notion of an objectively fair map: https://tinyurl.com/33te9es4

– MrJM

Comment by @misterjayem Wednesday, Mar 17, 21 @ 2:07 pm
==And a $2M dollar award if you capture one live.==

Does it have to be an Oklahoma Sasquatch?

Comment by Jar Jar Wednesday, Mar 17, 21 @ 2:11 pm
If anyone is specifically curious about the “Iowa Plan” the details are here: https://www.legis.iowa.gov/docs/publications/LG/9461.pdf

Comment by Candy Dogood Wednesday, Mar 17, 21 @ 2:52 pm
=== The program does. The program can be made public giving excellent transparency. ===

How many people in Illinois do you think can read Python code?

How would you feel if our state laws were all published in Arabic? Because that’s about the same percent who can read GIS code.

Harmon’s point is that a map isn’t inherently “fair” because you used a computer to draw it, anymore than a map drawn with a pen is more fair than a map drawn with a crayon.

All the computer does is make human bias less obvious.

I mean, look at how bad computer formulas are at ranking college sports teams.

Comment by Thomas Paine Wednesday, Mar 17, 21 @ 3:01 pm
Cluster - you’re not the first person to spin the contention that gerrymandering increases the number of wingnuts/decreases the number of centrists into “you’re claiming gerrymandering produces wingnuts and blocks centrists in EVERY district.”

Comment by lake county democrat Wednesday, Mar 17, 21 @ 3:12 pm
Recommended Iowa reading …

“That leaves Iowa minorities far underrepresented in the Capitol: just 5 percent of the state lawmakers are non-white, while three times that — roughly 15 percent —– of Iowa’s population is non-white, according to U.S. Census data.”

https://www.thegazette.com/subject/news/government/iowa-2021-legislature-demographics-minority-20210111

Comment by Third Reading Wednesday, Mar 17, 21 @ 4:15 pm