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Republican remap roundup

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Illinois

* If you need a good backgrounder on this topic before reading further, click here for Rick Pearson’s strong story.

OK, let’s start with WMBD…

State Republicans urged Governor J.B. Pritzker on Monday to veto redistricting maps drawn by lawmakers.

Some lawmakers said redistricting needs to be a fair and non-partisan process led by people- not politicians.

“I think the public is demanding an open and transparent process. Many of our colleagues including Governor Pritzker have said in their own words that they would like an open and transparent process,” said U.S. Rep. Rodney Davis (R-IL).

Davis said more than 500,000 people in Illinois supported a ballot question for an independent redistricting commission. Davis said it didn’t make the ballot and says people want a process where politicians can’t pick their own voters.

Can’t dispute any of that.

* Again, no dispute here…

The idea of an independent redistricting commission has enjoyed bipartisan support in the past. In fact, Monday’s news conference featured a large poster board with a quote from then-candidate JB Pritzker, who said during the 2018 campaign, “We should amend the constitution to create an independent commission to redraw legislative maps, but in the meantime, I would urge Democrats and Republicans to agree to an independent commission to handle creating a new legislative map.”

Rep. Avery Bourne, R-Morrisonville, urged Pritzker to support the GOP plan.

“While the context may have changed, when he was asked that question, it was assumed that Mike Madigan would be drawing the maps,” she said. “His pledge has not and cannot change.”

* But, c’mon, Tim…

“We’ve got fewer Republican congressmen than we had a decade ago and two decades ago,” [Rep. Tim Butler, R-Springfield] said, “and that’s all because of the fact that they use political data to slice and dice these districts for political gain.”

Republicans, including Rodney Davis, now hold two Downstate seats that were drawn for Democrats (Mike Bost is the other) and they came awfully close to picking up a third (Cheri Bustos) last year. But there’s also been a sea change at the suburban level because of the GOP’s national bent. If you had boldly predicted ten years ago that a liberal Black woman would win the exurban 14th District, you might have been laughed out of the state.

* Also…

“The Latino population in Illinois is actually higher than African American population, but that’s not represented in the Illinois General Assembly,” Butler said. “It’s not.”

Hispanic voters make up more than 11% of the state’s voting age population, according to an independent analysis of Illinois’ district maps and demographics. However, Latino elected officials make up just seven percent of the state legislature, and just one of Illinois’ 18 members of Congress. […]

“Should we draw another Hispanic congressional district? Absolutely,” Davis said. “That’s something that these mapmakers ought to take into consideration.”

Butler is a well-informed legislator, so he knows that Latino voter turnout still badly lags. But, they have steadily made gains over the years, picking up seats that were once held by whites (including former Republican Sen. Jim Oberweis’ seat and via an appointment to former Speaker Madigan’s seat, to name two of the most recent). Even so, this remap will undoubtedly be important to solidify Latino population gains. And it doesn’t hurt the Republicans that Democrats will have to put one of their white Chicago-area incumbents on the hot seat to make that happen.

* SJ-R…

Butler also mentioned how Springfield’s Black population must be well represented by new maps.

“We have a very vibrant and engaged African American community here in Springfield, but unfortunately have not had a representative here in Springfield until Sen. Doris Turner was appointed … and that’s largely because the county has been divided up,” Butler said.

Um, no. The House Democrats had a perfect opportunity to elect a Black candidate 9 years ago and decided to back Sue Scherer instead. That district was created by combining Black Springfield precincts with similar precincts in Decatur. It was the only way to get it done. But the HDems took the safe way out.

* WGN…

There is speculation Democrats will erase GOP Congressman Rodney Davis’ 13th district. Davis said Democrats have long targeted his seat.

Democrats are going to play politics with redistricting, they can’t help themselves.

Republicans are pushing a bill that would give ordinary Illinoisans the power to draws the maps. Under the plan, the Supreme Court would appoint citizens to a redistricting commission.

I kinda got the feeling that Congressman Davis was using yesterday’s presser to warn Democrats about messing with his seat, which is kinda the opposite of a blind and fair mapmaking process.

* Meanwhile, here’s a Daily Herald editorial…

Without question, the Illinois General Assembly is in a bit of a bind as a constitutionally imposed June 30 deadline looms for approving new legislative and congressional boundaries.

Because of delays caused by the pandemic, the U.S. Census Bureau has not provided population data for states to use in drawing required new maps — and the bureau doesn’t expect to have the data until the end of September. By that time, potential candidates for statewide and county offices will have barely two months to solicit signatures on petitions to qualify for seats, so leaders have justified concerns to put boundary lines in place as soon as possible. […]

The anti-gerrymandering watchdog group RepresentUs says Illinois’ one-party dominance in both legislative chambers and the governor’s office puts it among 25 states at extreme risk of letting political power rather than objective review of population data determine the boundaries that will shape the state’s legislative and congressional boundaries for the next decade.

Legislative leaders say they’re driven by the desire to meet the constitutional deadline. If they miss it, instead of having boundaries that reflect input from the public and all 177 lawmakers in the House and Senate, the redistricting process will move to a commission of just eight members, whose work, if ultimately deadlocked, will be decided by a one-person appointed tiebreaker. Clearly, that alternative, too, is objectionable. But these are not the map makers’ only options.

The National Conference of State Legislatures has taken note of the problem in states like Illinois and offers suggested actions states can pursue, including appealing to the courts to permit a delay in creating the boundaries.

From that Represent.US report on Illinois…

Democrats hold the governorship and have strong majorities in both legislative chambers. This allows the party to have total power over how to draw the maps, creating clear risk of partisan bias. There’s less of a chance of manipulation if the redistricting commission is tasked with drawing the maps, which could be a real possibility considering the Census delays.

The first part is accurate. The second part is wildly false. Whenever the redistricting commission has been activated, it’s always ended up in a very partisan outcome because the two sides haven’t been able to come to an agreement, preferring to take their chances with a lottery.

From the NCSL…

1. Ask courts for relief.

Redistricters can petition the appropriate state court to seek relief from their statutory or constitutional redistricting deadlines. For example, California successfully pursued this option in mid-2020.

The California legislature successfully petitioned its Supreme Court to delay its constitutional filing deadlines. It doesn’t work that way in Illinois.

* Related…

* Census Delay Complicates Once-a-Decade Redistricting Duty

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Apr 13, 21 @ 11:48 am

Comments

=== “We’ve got fewer Republican congressmen than we had a decade ago and two decades ago,” [Rep. Tim Butler, R-Springfield] said, “and that’s all because of the fact that they use political data to slice and dice these districts for political gain.”===

Either willfully ignorant or… willfully ignorant.

This is such a pathetic way to be a victim to the ineptitude that is the ILGOP

Can Butler name who ran against … Schneider, Foster, Underwood, Casten, Krishnamoorthi, and Bustos?

How many ran unopposed or with “little resistance”

How many had the real luxury of running against Ives and Oberweis.

It’s not a map problem Butler needs to come to grips with… it’s a recruiting and resetting candidates that can win seats once either held by Republicans or at least were competitive for Republicans.

I’m embarrassed for Butler. Do better.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Apr 13, 21 @ 12:00 pm
I am 100% in favor of ending gerrymandering, but only if done so on the Federal level. Republican / Koch strategy since at least the beginning of Obama’s first term has been to dump a ton of money into state elections, win those General Assemblies, and work towards securing the 2/3rds of the states necessary to pass whatever they want. If you think this country is anti-labor now, wait until Charles Koch and ALEC are handwriting all of them. Last I checked they were only like 3 or 4 states away from hitting that goal. This was one of the earlier forms of the massive disenfranchisement effort they’re currently running.

Also I’m content with Illinois sticking to partisan maps until that happens, because IL Dems haven’t had maps thrown out by courts that have decisions stating things like “This map disenfranchises African American voters with a near surgical precision.” Republicans have developed algorithms to pack & crack voters down to the individual household level, and the only way I’ll support bipartisan maps is if every state has them.

Comment by Commisar Gritty Tuesday, Apr 13, 21 @ 12:01 pm
A lot of stuff being thrown against the wall by the GQP to try and save their political prospects.

Sitting in a room with headphones on to disregard the noise, Dem mapmakers are busy working on different map versions to present to the decision makers. Their task to make maps that meet the civil rights standards while benefiting the party.

Meanwhile the GQP mapmakers are playing video games because their work is meaningless.

Comment by Norseman Tuesday, Apr 13, 21 @ 12:04 pm
I assume that Rep. Davis participated in drafting HR1 and supported it as a way to limit gerrymandering nationwide. Or is he only concerned about “one party” subverting the people in Illinois?

Comment by Out Here In The Middle Tuesday, Apr 13, 21 @ 12:06 pm
Let Rodney get a taste of his own party’s medicine.

Comment by tdavs1 Tuesday, Apr 13, 21 @ 12:09 pm
Overall to the post?

Can these Raunerites see a map that will be inline with the Voters Rights Act that they can field diverse and strong candidates to gain seats not considered “Eastern Bloc Safe”?

See, here’s the thing… I look at the SGOP, HGOP, the delegation sent to DC… is gender the sole diversity in these groups?

How can you look at FIVE suburban (and Bustos) congressional seats “plus” and seemingly not be able to grasp how those seats are… “unattainable”?

So… arguing process… instead of fighting in the trenches… we get these types of spin… actually complaining about “representatation” from a monolithic party predicated on group think.

So… fight the process fight to try to walk the line of the Voters Rights Act parameters.

High wires are easier to navigate.

Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Apr 13, 21 @ 12:10 pm
Will these Republican support the same thing in Republican controlled states? If so pass a bill in Congress mandating it nation wide. The constitution is silent on this subject. In my opinion I would ditch districts all togeather. Use nothing smaller than a county. If required have more than one congress person per county. That would fix it.

Comment by Publius Tuesday, Apr 13, 21 @ 12:11 pm
==that’s all because of the fact that they use political data to slice and dice these districts==

Umm, Okay. Tell me the last time a Nazi or white supremacist candidate ran as a Democrat…or followed QAnon?

Comment by Jocko Tuesday, Apr 13, 21 @ 12:13 pm
I’m in line with some of the other commentators. Independent redistricting only makes sense if it’s nationwide. We know states with Republican legislatures will continue to stack the deck in their favor.

Comment by Sir Reel Tuesday, Apr 13, 21 @ 12:19 pm
t Democrats will have to put one of their white Chicago-area incumbents on the hot seat

Calling Marie N…..

barely two months to solicit signatures on petitions to qualify for seats

Unless of course, the legislature made a one time change to give more time……

Comment by Fav Human Tuesday, Apr 13, 21 @ 12:21 pm
@Commisar Gritty - My sentiments exactly. And you’re exacty right on the Koch/ALEC strategy too, which is why this is critical to do on the Federal Level.

Comment by PublicServant Tuesday, Apr 13, 21 @ 12:23 pm
=they use political data to slice and dice these districts for political gain=

That must be some food processor they’re using. Not only has it given them more districts, but it’s allowed them to run the table on every statewide office as well.

Comment by Pundent Tuesday, Apr 13, 21 @ 1:20 pm
No matter who draws the map, no matter under what circumstances, there will never be anything even close to a consensus agreement among the participants, the public or the media.

Comment by Flyer Tuesday, Apr 13, 21 @ 2:26 pm