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New Illinois unemployment insurance claims hit pandemic low, but news blackout will likely continue

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Illinois

The U.S. Department of Labor estimates 13,142 new unemployment claims were filed during the week of April 12 in Illinois, according to the DOL’s weekly claims report released Thursday. […]

There were 18,986 new unemployment claims were filed during the week of April 5 in Illinois.

There were 16,182 new unemployment claims were filed during the week of March 29 in Illinois.

There were 14,189 new unemployment claims were filed during the week of March 22 in Illinois.

There were 15,595 new unemployment claims were filed in Illinois during the week of March 15.

There were 71,175 new unemployment claims filed in Illinois during the week of March 8.

One year ago during the same period, 102,736 new unemployment claims were filed after reaching a high of 141,160 the week before.

Two years ago, for the week ending April 13, a total of 7,749 new claims were filed in Illinois, which was a drop from 8,876 claims filed the week before. So, we’re nearly back to “normal.”

* National…

The number of Americans filing for first-time jobless aid last week fell to its lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic erupted in 2020, a sign layoffs are easing as the economy recovers.

Some 547,000 people applied for unemployment benefits in the week ended April 17, the Labor Department said Thursday. That’s 39,000 fewer than the previous week and the lowest weekly number since March 14, 2020. About 133,000 others applied for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, a federal program for self-employed and gig workers.

The latest jobless claims figure is far below the roughly 1 million weekly applications the nation saw in January. But it remains more than twice its pre-pandemic level of about 250,000, showing how much further the recovery has to go.

Illinois’ week-to-week reduction represented 15 percent of the national total. Even so, this trend is being almost completely ignored by major media outside of WBBM TV.

* Peoria Journal Star…

Kami Ferguson serves up fare Wednesday, April 21, 2021 to Michelle Johnson, left, Jeff Roth, right, and Tammy Smith at Maquet’s Rail House, 221 Court Street, in Pekin.

Some things are missing right now at Jonah’s Seafood House and Oyster Bar in East Peoria.

Perhaps the most obvious absent element might be the oyster bar. It forms one-third of the restaurant-market complex along the Illinois River.

The oyster bar is closed because of another missing link: There aren’t enough Jonah’s employees available to operate it.

Bartenders, servers and kitchen workers separate from Jonah’s main restaurant are required for the oyster bar, according to Dan Ralph, the facility’s general manager. Because of issues related to the coronavirus pandemic, Jonah’s is about one-third below its full complement of 90 to 100 employees. […]

Dickinson, Maquet and Ralph cited extended unemployment benefits as one source of the worker dearth. Additional weekly payments of $300 until early September might make it worthwhile for some lower-wage restaurant workers to remain unemployed.

I get the federal benefits angle, but add that to the fact that most restaurant employees, who tend to be younger, aren’t fully vaccinated, why would they venture forth?

posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Apr 22, 21 @ 9:06 am

Comments

While blaming UI payments is cute, but the real answer is restaurant bigwigs might have to share a little more cash with the work force. A novel idea

Comment by Annonin' Thursday, Apr 22, 21 @ 9:16 am
Share a little more cash? Please tell us how to extract blood from a turnip

Key findings regarding the impact of coronavirus on the restaurant industry include:

Restaurant and foodservice industry sales fell by $240 billion in 2020 from an expected level of $899 billion.

As of December 1, 2020, more than 110,000 eating and drinking places were closed for business temporarily, or for good.

The eating and drinking place sector finished 2020 nearly 2.5 million jobs below its pre-coronavirus level.

72% of restaurant owners who closed for good say it’s unlikely they’ll open another restaurant concept in the months or years ahead.

Only 48% think they’ll stay in the restaurant industry in some form in the months or years ahead.

https://restaurant.org/news/pressroom/press-releases/2021-state-of-the-restaurant-industry-report

Comment by Lucky Pierre Thursday, Apr 22, 21 @ 9:26 am
Agreed. It’s up to employers to make working more attractive than collecting UI.

Comment by Cubs in '16 Thursday, Apr 22, 21 @ 9:29 am
In an ironic twist, the fact that a lot of underpaid *adult* retail and restaurant workers are choosing to stay home and collect UI checks has made it easier for my teenagers to get summer jobs. The only issue is that the more desirable ones (Best Buy for example) don’t want to wait for the teenagers’ summer vacations to begin. They have to be ready to start now.

Annonin’ is right; if restaurants and other low wage employers want actual adults to come to work for them, they should be ready to pay a living wage. Otherwise, they can adapt their schedules around school hours if they want workers who don’t have families to support.

Comment by Dysfunction Junction Thursday, Apr 22, 21 @ 9:37 am
The improved jobs climate undercuts calls for massive federal and state relief programs. Hard to argue for borrowing more trillions from foreign countries if the U.S. is emerging from an employment market interruption that only lasted a year.
Might that rapid economic recovery explain the silence from so many politicized newsrooms about, um, that rapid economic recovery?

Comment by Perplexed Thursday, Apr 22, 21 @ 9:40 am
Earlier this week on Sam Madonia’s “AM Springfield” morning show on 1450 in Springfield, a caller told Sam that one of the Dollar General stores in town had to start closing at 4PM (before State Employees and many others in office positions get off work) because store management couldn’t find anyone willing to work the night shift (until it closes, usually at 9).

Comment by EssentialStateEmployeeFromChatham Thursday, Apr 22, 21 @ 9:41 am
==I get the federal benefits angle, but add that to the fact that most restaurant employees, who tend to be younger, aren’t fully vaccinated, why would they venture forth?==

Too bad it’s totally false. When the federal UI benefits were higher ($600) economists found no relationship between higher UI benefits and likelihood of taking a job.

https://www.npr.org/transcripts/893297452

And they are still finding that it is false at lower levels ($300).

https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2021/03/30/982270517/what-unemployment-insurance-tells-us-about-work-during-a-pandemic

Comment by Shield Thursday, Apr 22, 21 @ 9:48 am
Business owners offering low wages, no insurance, and no set hours aren’t actually confused as to why people won’t risk infection from entitled customers to come work for them. They’re just angry at it and have to blame someone else.

Comment by DuPage Guy Thursday, Apr 22, 21 @ 9:55 am
If your business model requires you to compensate and treat most of your workforce like crap, it’s likely not a good model.

Comment by VerySmallRocks Thursday, Apr 22, 21 @ 10:27 am
I wouldn’t risk my lungs for a potential tip. Especially when many locals in the area around Jonah’s won’t get vaccinated.

Comment by Glengarry Thursday, Apr 22, 21 @ 11:05 am
Do you realize this industry employs almost 600,000 workers in Illinois?

That is the largest employer in the state accounting for 10% of the workforce.

https://restaurant.org/downloads/pdfs/state-statistics/illinois.pdf

Comment by Lucky Pierre Thursday, Apr 22, 21 @ 11:13 am
Starved Rock Lodge is desperate for help. Just about every position has openings. No different than any other restaurant in the U.S. Could be a quiet summer at Illinois’ most visited state park.

Comment by Joe Schmoe Thursday, Apr 22, 21 @ 11:20 am
“a lot of underpaid *adult* retail and restaurant workers are choosing to stay home and collect UI checks”

Republicans set the template, by giving billions in tax cuts to corporations in a growing economy, and to many who had record profits/revenue. It would be shameful for working class people to deny themselves government help while those who want to cut them lavish millionaires and billionaires with massive government handouts.

Comment by Grandson of Man Thursday, Apr 22, 21 @ 11:35 am
LP - Another impressive statistic and another interesting link just like yesterday. Mind explaining what it’s got to do with the question at hand?

Comment by Dysfunction Junction Thursday, Apr 22, 21 @ 11:42 am
Isn’t it obvious?

Illinois high unemployment and lagging economy will continue without a swift recovery in this critical industry as well as the tourism business so important during the summer months

Comment by Lucky Pierre Thursday, Apr 22, 21 @ 11:47 am
Pay adults a living wage now. Get rid of the arbitrary customer tip. The UI bump is temporary but the need for fair pay for a fair day’s work is not.

If my fries cost more, then like every other purchase, I will decide if it’s worth it.

Comment by don the legend Thursday, Apr 22, 21 @ 12:15 pm
Thanks, LP. I see your point; I was focused more on the latter part of the post (”Dickinson, Maquet and Ralph cited extended unemployment benefits as one source of the worker dearth.”) and Rich’s comment than the macro effects on the IL economy you cited. It’s always seemed that when markets address micro-level issues, the macro ones resolve themselves.

From my memory of high school economics, if there is a shortage of some resource (e.g., workers) and enough demand for that resource, then the issue should resolve itself through appropriate resource pricing. Invisible Hand or something like that.

How many of those tourism-related jobs would remain unfilled if they paid $30 an hour? $20? $15? There’s probably a magic number somewhere, and it may no longer be $9.25. Find the new number and problem solved.

Comment by Dysfunction Junction Thursday, Apr 22, 21 @ 1:18 pm
Are folks staying home for a little extra? Sure.

Have a number of other people found a different job to do now that the labor force is hungry for workers? Yes.

Have a number of people entered the “gig” economy and are working for themselves and making just as much? Yes.

We flipped the entire economy on it’s head - at point in time where gig work was taking off. Now we have a hard time understanding why its hard to find help to staff jobs where it was always hard to find help?

Comment by Cool Papa Bell Thursday, Apr 22, 21 @ 1:23 pm
Don you remind me of the King on Game of Thrones

What else do we need to do to make you happy?

Comment by Lucky Pierre Thursday, Apr 22, 21 @ 1:28 pm
I thought that if you’re collecting unemployment, you have to show that you’re looking for work. I wasn’t aware that you can turn down available work, though I can see why people would. Maybe someone could clarify.

Comment by Anonanonsir Thursday, Apr 22, 21 @ 2:02 pm
Pierre, I don’t see where Don is asking to be made happy. Restaurant owners have a problem, and he’s offered two solutions to that problem. Plus a clear explanation of how he will provide feedback on that solution. Where’s the king-like behavior in that?

Comment by Dysfunction Junction Thursday, Apr 22, 21 @ 2:10 pm
Most of Chicago’s bars and reataurants are still limited to 50 people per licensed room. Health worries or “high” UI checks or anything else, most bartenders and servers are smart and realize there’s not much tip action upside when a place has only 6-10 tables on a weekend night.

Subtract business traveller tips? Long way away from the $30-$40/hour career servers & bartenders could make downtown last few years. Until vaccination percentages & indoor capacity & travel picks up a lot more not a lot of incentive to hurry back unless you love the field or are bored out of your mind at home.

Fwiw this is Chicago only analysis. Can’t speak to suburbs & downstate check averages and wages.

Comment by ChicagoBars Thursday, Apr 22, 21 @ 2:13 pm
Crappy jobs must pay a living wage or no one will do them…the mask has been torn off of the face of
“poverty jobs” by this pandemic.

Who is “essential” has come to light…and the light can not be turned off.

Comment by Dotnonymous Thursday, Apr 22, 21 @ 2:17 pm
@ChicagoBars - Wait, workers are doing a risk-benefit analysis to set an appropriate market price for their labor during a pandemic? Imagine if this sort of thinking catches on.

Comment by Dysfunction Junction Thursday, Apr 22, 21 @ 2:18 pm
LP, sorry no HBO so no Game of Thrones watcher.

You seem like a “let the free market decide” kind of guy. When the UI bump ends in a few months let’s see what a true wage is for hospitality work.

As Dysfunction Junction posted “Find the new number and problem solved.”

Comment by don the legend Thursday, Apr 22, 21 @ 2:34 pm
The UI enhancement expires in September after the Summer tourism season is over.

Enhanced unemployment is not the free market, it is pandering to people and it will actually hurt the economy, not help.

Everyone should wants to be vaccinated will be able to by June.

This is bad policy and will hinder recovery

Comment by Lucky Pierre Thursday, Apr 22, 21 @ 3:03 pm
It’s purely anecdotal but I talk to lots of staff. Hospitality eople are still getting together with friends and going out. They just aren’t doing it for relatively low potential customer counts and tips. I don’t fault them for being able to do math.

But as small businesses keep getting UI premium increases and have trouble finding any staff I expect challenges to UI claims by former employers to really ramp up too. Probably see a lot more counter service rather than table aervice this summer. Just another hospitality industry pivot of necessity. Lower long term industry employment of it sticks.

Comment by ChicagoBars Thursday, Apr 22, 21 @ 3:46 pm
==The UI enhancement expires in September after the Summer tourism season is over. ==

And teenagers like my three are currently interviewing to fill those jobs as I write these words. So this summer may finally look like summers did in our youth, with pimply-faced teens handing the fries at drive-through windows instead of 40+ year old parents and recent retirees who can’t make ends meet on Social Security.

Then in late August/early September, those teenagers will go back to school. Then the UI enhancement will run out. And *then*… the invisible hand of Adam Smith should help working-class adults work out with low-wage employers how much their labor is really worth.

Still haven’t heard anyone propose a magic number, BTW.

Comment by Dysfunction Junction Thursday, Apr 22, 21 @ 3:58 pm
It says a lot to me that people can make more on unemployment than they can working. To me that raises a far larger question on compensation in general. Maybe pay employees more and you wouldn’t have this problem.

Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Apr 22, 21 @ 4:53 pm
Sorry. That was me above.

Comment by Demoralized Thursday, Apr 22, 21 @ 4:53 pm
==The UI enhancement expires in September after the Summer tourism season is over.==

So I guess it’s up to teenagers like mine to carry the service sector through the summer months. They’re hard workers and not too demanding wage-wise. After school’s back in, the Invisible Hand can handle the rest.

Comment by Dysfunction Junction Thursday, Apr 22, 21 @ 5:04 pm
Not all of the jobs lost were in bars and restaurants. There are a portion of the unemployed that are restricted from taking a entry level job away from someone else. Even when you just go apply for a lower wage job they see what your other job was and assume you will quit as soon as you can find a job back in your field of work. some have health issues that are waiting for full vaccination before going back to work.
More than anything this is being used as a drama wedge to keep people bickering between each other and not paying attention to what they are trying to slip in and don’t want you to notice.

Comment by Anonymous Friday, Apr 23, 21 @ 11:42 am