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* AP…
Altogether, the U.S. population rose to 331,449,281 last year, the Census Bureau said, a 7.4% increase that was the second-slowest ever. Experts say that paltry pace reflects the combination of an aging population, slowing immigration and the scars of the Great Recession, which led many young adults to delay marriage and families.
The new allocation of congressional seats comes in the first release of data from last year’s headcount. The numbers generally chart familiar American migration patterns but also confirm one historic marker: For the first time in 170 years of statehood, California is losing a congressional seat, a result of slowed migration to the nation’s most populous state, which was once a symbol of the country’s expansive frontier.
It all marks the official beginning of once-a-decade redistricting battles. The numbers released Monday, along with more detailed data expected later this year, will be used by state legislatures or independent commissions to redraw political maps to account for shifts in population.
Those shifts have largely been westward. Colorado, Montana and Oregon all added residents and gained seat a seat each. Texas was the biggest winner — the second-most populous state added two congressional seats, while Florida and North Carolina gained one. States losing seats included Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania and West Virginia.
Neighborhood counts mattered. Census said if New York had counted 89 more residents, the state would have kept its seat and Minnesota would have lost one.
Man, can you imagine being the person in charge of making sure New York’s count went well?
Oof.
* On to Illinois…
Rep. Adam Kinzinger, R-Ill., the most prominent Illinois Republican, said if Democrats carve up his district, he may instead run for senator or governor in 2022. Whether GOP Reps. Rodney Davis and Darin LaHood make statewide bids also may depend on the remap.
Downstate freshman Rep. Mary Miller, R-Ill., is the Republican seen as most at risk in a remap.
Reapportionment is the step that takes place before a remap — that is, drawing new congressional district lines based on the latest census data. Each state gets at least one seat; after that, the remaining 385 seats are distributed according to population, with the aim to have about the same number of people in each district.
No matter the number of seats in the House, this system for distributing them has been in place since the first census in 1790.
* Illinois Policy Institute…
Illinois’ population count was 12,812,508 in 2020, a drop of 18,124 since 2010, according to new data released April 26 by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Last December, the US Census was estimating the state’s population loss at around a quarter-million.
* Tribune…
Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker said Monday he was “concerned” about the decline in congressional representation.
“Over a decade, we’ve lost population, so we’ve got to turn that around,” he said at an unrelated news conference in Aurora, while also noting that Illinois spent more than $30 million in outreach and counting activities for the 2020 census. […]
The state’s high property taxes have been cited as a major reason for people leaving, a group that includes retirees who have moved to other states even though Illinois does not tax retirement income.
Pritzker on Monday offered another reason, saying one of the largest groups moving out of Illinois in the last decade has been college-age students choosing schools in other states because “they couldn’t afford to go to college in Illinois.”
* More Pritzker from NBC 5…
“Unfortunately, this has been happening for more than a decade, we’ve had out-migration from the state. When I took office, this unfortunately had continued,” Pritzker said when asked about the Census data at an unrelated news conference.
“And I looked very closely at the numbers of people, who they are, where they come from, why they’re leaving and what you see when you look at the out-migration is actually the largest portion of the population that was moving out were young people who were choosing to go to college out of state because tey couldn’t afford to go to college in Illinois,” he continued, highlighting things like MAP grants and other initiatives to make college more affordable for Illinois residents.
“We might lose one or two seats but that’s something that unfortunately, before I became governor was really, you know, a bit set in at least clay if not stone, and now we’re working very hard to make sure that we’re going the right direction,” Pritzker added.
* AP…
The decrease will likely spell a loss of federal funding while at the same time strengthening Democrats’ political grip on the state.
“Most people who build a statistical model on how much federal money does a state get will find that more seats means more money,” said Brian Gaines, political scientist at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. […]
With Democrats holding 13 of the state’s 18 congressional seats, controlling the governor’s office and dominating the state Legislature, little else should change, Gaines said. The 14th Congressional District, running from the top to the bottom of the Chicago metropolitan area on its far western edge, will likely be redrawn to boost Rep. Lauren Underwood, a Democrat who narrowly won a second term last fall by just over 1 percentage point against Republican state Sen. Jim Oberweis.
* ABC 7…
“The majority party that has sent the population packing and people fleeing the state of Illinois should not be uniquely taking the initiative to select their own voters,” said State Rep. Ryan Spain (R-Peoria).
Democrats are already in the process of redrawing the district map; by state law, they must draw new congressional and legislative districts by June 30.
“They don’t appear to be in any mood to offer the Republicans a gift allowing them to get in on the party,” noted Chris Mooney, professor of political science at UIC.
But Rep. Robin Kelly (D-IL 2nd District), who is also chair of the Illinois Democratic Party, said she’s confident the process will be fair.
“They’ll dictate my seat also, but I expect them to be fair and to do the best job they can do and take into consideration we are losing a seat,” she said.
* I posted some other react yesterday, but here’s US Rep. Rodney Davis…
“It’s unfortunate, yet unsurprising, that Illinois lost population over the past decade. Democrats continue to push corruption, tax hikes, and job-killing policies, which have only made our outmigration problems worse. Governor Pritzker has done nothing to stem the flow of families and has only made it worse by encouraging the tax-and-spend habits of the Democrats in the General Assembly. As state lawmakers determine the course for redistricting, I urge the Democrats to keep their word on supporting independent redistricting, particularly Governor Pritzker, who pledged to veto any partisan-drawn map. The politicians in charge should not be using the census to pick their own voters and protect their own power.”
* Senate Democrats…
The statement below can be attributed to Sen. Omar Aquino, D-Chicago, Chair of the Senate Redistricting Committee, and Sen. Elgie Sims, D-Chicago, Vice Chair of the Senate Redistricting Committee:
“We are reviewing the information released today by the U.S. Census Bureau and remain committed to working with our partners in Washington to ensure Illinois continues to receive the federal resources and support our communities need. While the Census Bureau confirmed full redistricting information may not be released until September, we will not abandon our duty to craft a map by June 30 as required by the Illinois Constitution. As others seek to delay and distract, we are focused on gathering input from communities of interest across Illinois to create a fair map that reflects the diversity of our great state.”
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 10:03 am
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It is depressing news. My attitude is not improved by the constant unsolicited calls and letters from realtors asking me if I want to sell my property.
Comment by Practical Politics Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 10:12 am
This shows why Davis will likely lose statewide. He tried to sound reasonable but just can’t keep himself from saying that Dems promote corruption. GQP mouthpiece.
Comment by Jibba Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 10:12 am
The Governor may say college students leaving is the main driver but unfortunately I know a lot of retirees that have left because of the property taxes. Many retirees don’t want to go on paying tens of thousands of dollars on a property they already paid for. Several other states have no or little retirement income tax plus lower to no property taxes.
Comment by Amurica Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 10:17 am
I hate to be the one to break it to the Raunerite/Trumpkins… but there’s likely no way if they drew the map uninhibited would they be able to find 60 and 30 with the likes of Bailey leading a ticket or Mary Miller being a mouthpiece.
The growth of the Raunerite/Trumpkin party is predicated on being less white, less angry, and less rural.
The recruiting I’ve seen these last cycles since Rauner, and now Trump, map or no map, the suburbs, women, persons of color are not flocking to the party.
So… excuse me if I heartily mock and laugh at the Raunerite/Trumpkins who bemoan the map, it’s process, and have the likes of Ives, Oberweis, Bailey, the Millers as the “want” candidates to be a majority.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 10:18 am
Thankfully both parties in Illinois recognized the need for infrastructure improvements and expansion, which lays the groundwork for people and businesses to come to Illinois. Imagine if that was done four years sooner, instead of war waged against unions.
Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 10:21 am
=== Many retirees don’t want to go on paying tens of thousands of dollars on a property they already paid for. Several other states have no or little retirement income tax plus lower to no property taxes.===
Since 1960, New York (15), Pennsylvania (10), and Ohio (9) have lost more seats than Illinois (7), Michigan is next with 6.
That’s 60 years of a trend.
Oh… since 1960… 45 seats, over 10% of the total House, have been added to Florida, Texas, and California.
There’s more to this than Kassian angst as he berates Chicago… while moving *to* Chicago.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 10:23 am
- Amurica - Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 10:17 am:
Texas gained two seats and has a huge property tax burden.
https://taxfoundation.org/how-high-are-property-taxes-in-your-state-2020/
South Dakota has no income tax and has not exactly been doing gangbusters population rise.
Oh, and might I add this:
“Meanwhile, Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, New Mexico, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Utah have the lowest income tax rates.”
https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/money/columnist/powell/2021/04/25/tax-friendly-states-consider-property-tax-sales-tax/7207105002/
Turns out taxes may have nothing to do with anything.
Comment by Shield Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 10:26 am
So, everyone in the political party that tried to ruin the state government, destroy our colleges, and racked up billions of dollars in debt… blames… Democrats…? That is what you do when you have no competent ideas… buzz words and blame.
Comment by Ducky LaMoore Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 10:28 am
==Several other states have no or little retirement income tax==
Illinois doesn’t tax retirement income. So they ain’t leaving because of state income taxes.
==don’t want to go on paying tens of thousands of dollars on a property they already paid for==
Those are the old people yelling at kids from their porches to get off of their lawn.
Comment by Anonymous Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 10:28 am
Sorry. That was me above.
Comment by Demoralized Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 10:28 am
==Turns out taxes may have nothing to do with anything.==
I believe taxes are probably one factor but those suggesting people are going solely because of taxes are full of it. There are a multitude of reasons people choose to move. Anyone that says that taxes is the only reason is a liar.
Comment by Demoralized Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 10:30 am
===My attitude is not improved by the constant unsolicited calls and letters from realtors asking me if I want to sell my property===
Um, that’s because they have buyers who will pay top dollar.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 10:35 am
==don’t want to go on paying tens of thousands of dollars on a property they already paid for==
Like a true boomer, get all the services (roads, police, fire, libraries, & schools) at a significant discount for years, then leave others to pay the check.
Comment by Jocko Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 10:43 am
=Imagine if that was done four years sooner,=
And if for 4 years the leader of state didn’t spend nearly every chance he had to trash the state. Wonder what positive leadership, responsible tax policy and an actual budget would have done in Illinois?
I’m still long this state. Transportation hub - roads, rails, waterways, airports, lake access. Lots of water for industry and cities to expand. Sell the right part of the story here and Illinois roars back (look at the boost Bloomington/Normal is getting with Rivian).
Comment by Cool Papa Bell Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 10:43 am
==Governor Pritzker has done nothing to stem the flow of families ===
The man can turn a phrase, even if it is pretty meaningless. Exactly what does Davis think will keep families here? Cutting services so their lives are harder? People stay where they have jobs. Our best hope is to keep our quality of life as high as possible by keeping the economic engine of Chicago going, getting more federal aid, keeping students here, improving our infrastructure, and waiting for the seas to rise.
Comment by Jibba Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 10:52 am
I wonder how it is that the Illinois GOP congressional delegation can wake up each morning and live in such stark denial of reality, or at least be willing to blatantly deny reality.
===said if Democrats carve up his district, he may instead run for senator or governor in 2022.===
Is this supposed to be a threat? Because now I want his district to be carved up.
Someone should let the “moderate” wing of the GOP know that if too many of them try to run for Governor they’re going to get either another rich person who is more interested in using their candidacy to fluff their ego, or a lunatic.
If there was any demand for Kinzinger statewide before the last 6 months there certainly isn’t any now and he certainly has made minimal effort spending any time outside of his district.
Comment by Candy Dogood Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 11:01 am
I agree with the governor that we need to focus on high-quality and affordable universities. I know many of my former students who go out of state for college because it is cheaper than attending UofI or ISU. University of Iowa, University of Missouri and University of Alabama are examples of schools that appear to aggressively recruit out-of-state students and specifically target Illinois students. There also needs to be a greater emphasis placed on promoting the compass schools, especially Eastern, Western and SIU-C.
My wife and I am are the few examples of people who came to Illinois for college (private university) and have stayed long-term. Making those career and personal connections in college provided the glue to keep our family in Illinois instead of “going back home”.
A well-educated work force also provides the employees necessary for high-quality work. Why is Apple building their new headquarters in North Carolina? The Research Triangle is full of highly-educated recent college grads.
Comment by DuPage Teacher Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 11:01 am
Illinois Democrats try to pin blame for the two decade long Illinois exodus on the 4 years of the Rauner administration and not the Democrats refusal to reform any of the reasons people are leaving
Comment by Lucky Pierre Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 11:07 am
===reform any of the reasons people are leaving===
And those are what? And how do you know this?
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 11:09 am
In all the reading that I have done in the last day, I read that the difference between losing a seat staying the same or gaining a seat is usually pretty small. Also, if New York didn’t lose a seat then Minnesota would have lost a seat. I have relatives in both States so it is a wash. Unfortunately I have relatives in California, Ohio, and Pennsylvania and I Amin Illinois so we all lost a seat.
Comment by Joseph Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 11:12 am
=== Illinois Democrats try to pin blame for the two decade long Illinois exodus on the 4 years of the Rauner administration and not the Democrats refusal to reform any of the reasons people are leaving===
… and yet Dems, since Rauner, have won ALL the statewide office and held historic super majorities, “thanks to Rauner”
You should look at the 1960s versus today congressional seat losses of New York, Pennsylvania, and Ohio… heck even “beloved Indiana” lost 2 seats… as did Missouri, Wisconsin, losing two seats, Iowa lost 3 seats…
Are we still pretending Illinois is the loathsome place, heck 2-3 decades ago, Illinois had Republican governors, Thompson, Edgar, Ryan… think that’s why Ohio lost 9 seats too?
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 11:14 am
==Governor Pritzker has done nothing to stem the flow of families ==
I would say things like repealing the corporate franchise tax (Public Act 101-0009) is doing something. Granted Pritzker is now calling the phasing out of the franchise tax a loophole & wants to put it back on the books.
Comment by Blake Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 11:16 am
==are the few examples of people who came to Illinois for college (private university) and have stayed long-term.===
One thing to remember is that graduates do not generally stay in places they cannot get jobs or have a good quality of life. Iowa laments that they cannot keep their graduates, who go to Illinois or farther afield. I’ve posted those links before. Illinois can give graduates jobs if we can keep them here, but if they go to CO, AZ, CA, they’re not coming back. Maybe not even AL.
Comment by Jibba Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 11:18 am
There seems to be a lot of conjecture based on anecdote (”…people are leaving because of taxes”) rather than data, which seems to lean towards another key variable: flat-lining immigration, which used to power population growth in Illinois.
Metropolitan Planning Council https://www.metroplanning.org/news/10061/Data-Points-Illinois-population-loss-why-immigration-is-catching-our-attention takes a look at the American Community Survey data over the last year
Comment by Abu Iskandr Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 11:26 am
In a way I feel for Republicans in IL. They are so wedged by the Pension Clause. They have all these promises about cutting taxing, keeping popular forms of spending, etc., then they come into office and none of their claims add up fiscally.
I will never forget how Rauner basically spent a year and a half running for Governor promising he had this amazing plan to cut taxes and still balance the budget and not worry about the pension debt, and it got comical, how his great plan was going to be announced in a couple more months … in a couple more months … wait for it, just around the corner, he’ll announce it any day … and then came Election Day.
The GOP is still using the same Rauner playbook. The criticisms poll test well. But if you look in the policy cupboard behind them, it’s bare.
And obviously the Pension Clause has posed other big problems for Democrats (and I would argue the long-term vitality of IL, combined with the flat tax provision - our state Constitution is genuinely bad, on its fiscal merits). But it seems like at the end of the day the GOP gets hurt more by it. They don’t have any clear game plan, even if they can get into office.
Comment by ZC Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 11:30 am
I know a lot of retirees who keep their primary residence as Illinois for tax reasons since Illinois doesn’t tax retirement income. Most of them that have homes in other states intentionally keep homes here for tax reasons alone. So the tax argument is not a valid opinion for me. Now the argument that downstate is losing population because of a lack of opportunities for younger people is a valid one for me. As a person in their 30s downstate a lot of my friends moved away because of opportunities in other states that Illinois could not provide.
Comment by QCman Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 11:33 am
I’m in my 60s, so I’m seeing my peer group dealing with retirement/fixed income issues. I know one person who left. It wasn’t politics that took him to Sun City, AZ. It was not wanting to live through another winter here, plus there’s stuff for Boomers to do in the development. He’s upset he couldn’t take his Weber kettle (they have this thing about fire hazards) but is adjusting.
Comment by Cheryl44 Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 11:35 am
One factor that I haven’t seen reported is the impact state spending had on the outcome of the Census. Illinois spent $30 million and came out with a population well above Census estimates. Minnesota spent a lot and had the best response rate in the nation, and that might be why they edged out New York. California spent a lot, too, and though they lost a seat they beat the estimates, unlike fellow border states Texas and Arizona which underperformed estimates. Census spending might be one of the wiser investments the state made in recent years, considering the additional federal funds that will result from the strong count.
Comment by muon Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 11:35 am
=== I know one person who left. It wasn’t politics that took him to Sun City, AZ. It was not wanting to live through another winter here, plus there’s stuff for Boomers to do in the development. ===
Thank you Cheryl44 stating the obvious no one else had been saying…THE WEATHER why many leaving Illinois & other states in Midwest and Northeast!
Comment by John Lopez Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 11:55 am
I wonder if some commentators on here sincerely see Illinois finishing 48th of 50 states in population last decade as a problem & how many see it as something to downplay for the sake of their politics or deflect for the sake of their politics. Markets tend to push people toward richer areas than they move from so MS & WV finishing 49th & 50th is unsurprising. IL finishing 48th is worrying & the downplaying is distressing. The primary source is a lack of business investment/startups outside Chicagoland leading to too few jobs in the rest of the state. As far as how much politics has to do with it, lets see when the county-by-county statistics for comparables such Rock Island County, IL to Scott County, IA & or Vermillion County, IL to Vigo County, IN.
Comment by Blake Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 12:06 pm
I’m not sure why people automatically think Mary Miller will be the one to go. Is she far far right? Yes. Is she on the fringe of most things? Yes. But with the right map, she unfortunately will line up with enough voters that being right of Mike Bost or Rodney Davis may carry her through.
Comment by OurMagician Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 12:07 pm
===the downplaying is distressing===
I agree.
However, the problem has been deliberately over-played so much by elements of the Right and their enablers in this state for so many years that the final numbers were anti-climactic.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 12:16 pm
=== As far as how much politics has to do with it, lets see when the county-by-county statistics for comparables such Rock Island County, IL to Scott County, IA & or Vermillion County, IL to Vigo County, IN.===
Indiana and Iowa on their best days will never be Illinois.
Choosing rural areas over rural areas… that’s playing into the “Illinois needs to be divided” narratives of old, angry, white, rural who blame everything on She-Caw-Go
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 12:19 pm
There is no one reason for people to leave as others have said. Climate, demographics, career opportunities are certainly impactful. The key is to honestly understand what the main drivers are and whether anything can be done to move the needle. Illinois doesn’t need to lead the league in growth, but it does need to grow, even minimally.
As for college students being a key issue, I don’t doubt it. All I can say is two of the happiest moments of my life were watching two kids walk across the stage at U of I and collect that diploma. It isn’t cheap, but the return on investment has been top notch.
Comment by SSL Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 12:53 pm
Oswego Willy, the 4 counties I named aren’t rural. Scott County, IA & Rock Island County, IL are in the same metro area. Also, Biden won both.
Comment by Blake Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 1:44 pm
===…the 4 counties I named aren’t rural. Scott County, IA & Rock Island County, IL are in the same metro area. Also, Biden won both.===
What are their rankings in media markets.
I mean, you’re not comparing those areas to Chicagoland or the collar counties, are ya, lol
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 2:08 pm
=== University of Iowa, University of Missouri and University of Alabama are examples of schools that appear to aggressively recruit out-of-state students and specifically target Illinois students.===
Missouri and Alabama too are now in “Phase 2” of helping those students in job opportunities to stay, Kay Ivey in Alabama specifically pushed this part just in the last year.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 2:13 pm
I work with a guy whose kid just got a $100K to go to a major school in Texas. Smart kid. Illinois offered her . . . $0. Why wouldn’t you go out of state?
Comment by Demoralized Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 2:45 pm
=== Illinois offered her . . . $0. Why wouldn’t you go out of state?===
Student debt is a real thing.
Free rides like that help outward migration.
Illinois needs to make a more serious commitment to keep in-state talent.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 2:47 pm
We lost ‘only’ 18K and a Congressional seat. The mean for a district in 2010 was 750K. We weren’t as insanely close as New York, but that’s still pretty thin percentage wise. And, to mimic Carville, ‘It’s the weather…
Comment by Proud Sucker Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 2:49 pm
It’s not just that students cannot afford to go to school in Illinois. The state doesn’t offer as many attractive options. Illinois has one flagship school, the U of I. It is selective, and they offer little financial aid. Yes, there are the regionals. But a lot of students want the big state school experience. Indiana has two flagships, Iowa has two flagships, Michigan, etc. And they can head south and get practically a free ride. I don’t see how that gets fixed.
Comment by Anon1 Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 3:02 pm
==I don’t see how that gets fixed.==
One way would be to mandate that most academic scholarships go to in state students.
Comment by Demoralized Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 3:07 pm
===I don’t see how that gets fixed.===
Texas has automatic admission to UT being in the top 10% of their graduating class. Admissions
In-state scholarships based on scores and class ranking. Financial aid
The goal is to make it easy to have the best and brightest stay.
It’s not Rocket Science.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 3:10 pm
The AP calls an increase of about 23 million people “paltry”?
A society that can only function with a continually growing population is a Ponzi scheme.
Online bettors say that Kinzinger is unlikely to be the GOP nominee in an Illinois congressional district, but the odds are better than a few days ago, probably because Illinois lost only one seat.
Illinois wasn’t really that close to losing two seats. It looks like the “right” number is about 16.8.
Comment by Anonanonsir Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 3:40 pm
I guess I should qualify I don’t see how it gets fixed without a lot of money which the state doesn’t have.
Comment by Anon1 Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 3:57 pm
=Governor Pritzker has done nothing to stem the flow of families and has only made it worse by encouraging the tax-and-spend habits of the Democrats in the General Assembly.=
Someone may want to point out to Rodney Davis that we lost more Illinois residents to Covid 19 in the last year than the population we lost since the last census was taken.
Comment by Pundent Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 4:19 pm