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* The Chicago Tribune and the “Illinois Exodus”…
* 2021 John Kass column: Illinois has lost close to a quarter-million taxpayers in the past 10 years in the great Illinois Exodus.
* 2020 Tribune editorial: In 2019, the U.S. Census Bureau calculates, our population fell by about 51,250 people. That’s the equivalent of everyone in Hoffman Estates packing up and heading out.
* 2020 Tribune editorial: Several recent Chicago Tribune stories on tax hikes and population losses may have caught your eye. Against the backdrop of rising taxes in Chicago for 2020, U.S. Census Bureau numbers released Dec. 30 showed Illinois losing population for a sixth straight year.
* 2020 Kristen McQueary column: You’ve seen the numbers. U.S. census data released in December showed Illinois’ net population since 2013 has dropped by more than 223,000 residents, roughly the equivalent of Naperville and Bolingbrook wiped off the map. That number includes births, deaths, domestic and international migration.
* 2019 Kristen McQueary column: Reality check: The number of residents fleeing Illinois for other states jumped to 93,704 in 2014 from 68,204 the previous year. It increased in 2015 to 106,544, and in 2016 to 109,941. More exodus in 2017 of 114,779 and last year, another 114,154.
* 2019 Tribune editorial: Who wants to be the last ones at the party? It only means you’ll have to clean up the mess. That’s what we mean by the Illinois Exodus.
* 2019 Tribune editorial: If [Mayor Lightfoot] keeps talking truth around her fellow Illinois Democrats, Chicago’s next mayor will make them squirm. She must be ignoring the memos instructing her to “Shush up about the ‘Illinois Exodus.’ Bad for our brand.” Lightfoot offered her comment to the Tribune’s Lisa Donovan about U.S. census data showing that the Chicago metro area lost another 22,000 residents from 2017 to 2018.
* 2019 Tribune editorial: Last year’s estimated net reduction of residents hit 45,116, the worst of five straight years of population decline.
* 2019 Tribune editorial: The early numbers show Illinois’ net population dropped from July 2018 to July 2019 by 51,250, down slightly from last year’s net loss of 55,757 residents, an updated number. The figures continue to confirm a sorry trend.
* 2018 Tribune Editorial: People are fleeing. Last year’s net loss: 33,703.
* 2018 Tribune editorial: By the tens of thousands each year, Illinoisans are fleeing this state’s rising taxes and mediocre jobs climate.
* 2018 Tribune editorial: In the big picture, Illinois is shrinking. It lost a net 33,703 people in 2017, and was 1 of 8 states to see a decline. This was Illinois’ fourth year in a row of population decline.
* 2018 Tribune editorial: The release on Wednesday of new census data about Illinois was alarming: Not only has the flight of citizens continued for a fifth straight year, but the population loss is intensifying. This year’s estimated net reduction of 45,116 residents is the worst of these five losing years.
* 2017 Tribune editorial: People are fleeing Illinois in record numbers. For four years running, this state has bled population. In 2017, Illinois lost a net 33,703 residents
* Actual net Illinois population loss according to the official US Census: 18,124. [And subtract 10,289 from that to account for Illinois residents living overseas and it’s a net decline of 7,835.]
It’s not that the Tribune was wrong. The census estimates were way off. But the Tribune did everything it could to hype those numbers and propose solutions to a problem that, while still quite real, was never as bad as was claimed. I’m not sure I’d hold your breath waiting for a clarification.
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 12:51 pm
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In fairness to the Tribune, it may have confused its circulation numbers with the population numbers.
Comment by Third Reading Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 1:03 pm
Conflation and obfuscation, not contrition is the SOP for the Trib editorial board and it’s rightwing columnists.
Comment by Norseman Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 1:03 pm
Capt Fax must be on be nice to the Tribbies mode…sad
Trashing the state is a continuing theme with no real clear reason. The result has been that nearly no one pays much attentopn to their mish mash anymore.
Comment by Annonin' Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 1:04 pm
==it may have confused its circulation numbers with the population numbers==
Sometimes I wish this site had a ‘like’ button. I literally laughed out loud.
Comment by North Park Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 1:05 pm
Tribbies must be using the Illinois Policy Institute formulas for population loss. I don’t recall the IPI clarifications either.
Comment by Nearly Normal Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 1:10 pm
Will Kristen’s prayers for a population-smashing hurricane never be answered?
– MrJM
Comment by @misterjayem Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 1:11 pm
Perspective?
Easy.
John Kass writes about the Chicago exodus.
John Kass moves to Chicago,
End of perspective.
#PurePhonies
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 1:19 pm
The population of Illinois impacts me as much as the population of Alaska impacts me. In other words, not at all.
The one things that all this trashing of the state by certain groups has done, is led me to resdiscover a b-movie quote that has been in my mind for probably far too long…
“No matter where you go, there you are”.
Your outlook on life is determined by who you are internally, not where you are. If you move somewhere new because you think the outside world is the cause of your problems, it may be shocking to realize it was actually your own doing, and that where you are matters very little in comparison to who you are.
Comment by TheInvisibleMan Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 1:20 pm
But, but, but, people left…
Comment by Huh? Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 1:22 pm
If Quinn was still Governor, he’d be talking about how great his administration is because it lured back all but 18,000 of the people who had moved away earlier in the decade.
Comment by SouthSide Markie Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 1:22 pm
@TheInvisibleMan -very deep but good stuff there. Love the quote.
Comment by JS Mill Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 1:22 pm
Statehouse Chick rebranded as it became obvious her own chosen moniker was as phony as her perspectives.
If I were to take Statehouse Chick at all seriously in these type of matters, that means she did indeed cheer the destructive nature of hurricanes and their aftermaths to a “rebirth” as others died.
This exodus baloney to her is that same warped “first world” ignorance to want division and pain if she can’t get a want.
Facts say Statehouse Chick should stick to tweeting about swim up bars and wine, real first world problems.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 1:24 pm
=Actual net Illinois population loss according to the official US Census: 18,124.=
Meanwhile, IDPH reported nearly 23,000 excess deaths in 2020. Wish this “Illinois Exodus” energy would be directed towards preventing more death in 2021.
https://www.sj-r.com/in-depth/news/2021/03/28/covid-led-to-excess-deaths-in-illinois-and-elsewhere/4756209001/
Comment by Anon62704 Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 1:25 pm
===Your outlook on life is determined by who you are internally, not where you are.===
Oh boy are there some places you should live that might help to diminish the optimism you express here. You are only right in that poverty and create an issue where Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs aren’t exactly being fully met.
===you think the outside world is the cause of your problems===
Climate change? Wealth inequality? Police brutality? Systemic racism?
===it was actually your own doing===
The real policy problem was trying to care about the problems in the first place.
Comment by Candy Dogood Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 1:29 pm
Dear TheInvisibleMan,
How dare you call Buckaroo Bonzai a b-movie.
Comment by Third Reading Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 1:30 pm
Candy,
I understand your point, but the people expressing this faux outrage do not fit into any of your categories. They aren’t complaining about any of those things, and in fact are either passively or actively encouraging those things to continue on their previous trajectory.
Which nicely proves the point of the saying.
And “Third Reading”…
I still want to know what that watermelon is doing there. I’m sure it will be explained in the sequel.
Comment by TheInvisibleMan Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 1:38 pm
Can we put a gold star next to Third Reading’s comment? Quality snark doesn’t get much better.
Comment by Keyrock Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 1:40 pm
The choice of a baseline year matters. Would you like to measure Illinois’ population loss from 2010 to 2020 or from 2014 to 2020?
The annual Census Bureau estimates have had Illinois happily gaining population from the 2010 census through 2013. The dropoff begins in 2014 and hasn’t stopped. Check those annual Census estimates:
Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for the Nation and States
xls
Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for the United States, Regions, States, and the District of Columbia: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2020 (NST-EST2020)
Comment by Perplexed Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 1:41 pm
Please pump these stats into my veins alongside the legal weed we have in Illinois.
Comment by Hot Taeks Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 1:42 pm
Me thinks that some (not the Tribune) may have entered into a social media echo chamber of people saying they’re leaving Illinois…then never doing it. I’ve seen a lot of people saying how they’re going to leave Illinois due to JB, Chicago, the Dems, all of the above…yet they never actually do it.
Comment by CMZ Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 1:50 pm
The Chicago Tribune is a dangerous threat to truth and fairness.
Comment by Frumpy White Guy Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 1:51 pm
Hey losing people over 10 years when 47 other states are gaining population is a problem no matter how you want to look at it. State financial liability is growing with fewer people to pay for it. Let’s not celebrate that it could have been worse
Comment by Sue Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 1:51 pm
Losing people isn’t good obviously, but I was expecting much worse based on the estimates. I’d imagine places like Danville, Decatur, Peoria, Rockford, etc. are driving the decline.
Comment by Former State Worker Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 1:52 pm
=== The dropoff begins in 2014 and hasn’t stopped.===
Who was governor in 2014?
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 1:53 pm
“Your outlook on life is determined by who you are internally, not where you are. If you move somewhere new because you think the outside world is the cause of your problems, it may be shocking to realize it was actually your own doing, and that where you are matters very little in comparison to who you are.”
vs.
“Give me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free, The wretched refuse of your teeming shore. Send these, the homeless to me, I lift my lamp beside the golden door!”
Glad my ancestors chose the latter.
Comment by Working Hands Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 1:55 pm
They were definitely working from Census estimates. I did the same. It’s the best we had to work from.
If the estimates turn out to be incorrect (and based on yesterday’s release that seems to be the case) that is much better news. However, we are still one of only three states to lose population and it is still an issue. West Virginia and Mississippi are not company I prefer to keep. Our domestic outmigration remains a huge issue. And while Census estimates appear to be off, IRS data tracks outmigration and is not estimates - it is real data based on returns - and it has been unrelentingly rough.
Comment by Stormfield Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 1:56 pm
===Who was governor in 2014? ===
Pat Quinn (D-Soyboy)
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 2:00 pm
According to the maps, it is downstate that is really driving the population loss. Is this an economic development issue? Also, considering the plethora of Baby Boomers turning 65 (10,000 a day in the U.S.), don’t retirees traditionally tend to relocate to warmer climates?
Comment by levivotedforjudy Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 2:02 pm
=== Pat Quinn (D-Soyboy)===
Exactly.
Rauner wanted a new vision, “Illinois is my home”, save jobs…
In the end, after defeating “Soyboy”, the exodus, or decline, continued under Rauner, including Rauner himself
:)
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 2:02 pm
Perhaps the problem is rooted in the unsustainable expectation that constant growth in population is a good thing.
Not to the extent of a Malthus-type argument against it, but growth for the sake of growth is pointless.
I’d much rather live in a state with an increasing standard of living, than an increasing population.
Comment by TheInvisibleMan Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 2:04 pm
===According to the maps, it is downstate that is really driving the population loss===
Those are all based on the estimates, which, as demonstrated above, were spectacularly wrong.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 2:04 pm
>According to the maps, it is downstate that is really driving the population loss. Is this an economic development issue? Also, considering the plethora of Baby Boomers turning 65 (10,000 a day in the U.S.), don’t retirees traditionally tend to relocate to warmer climates?
Wait until the official numbers are released, but the problem in Central Illinois has been that the economy in a lot of these MSAs is centered around one business/industry.
Comment by Former State Worker Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 2:10 pm
I wish everyone in Hoffman Estates would pack up and head out. Would help with the traffic congestion in Chicagoland.
Comment by Sir Reel Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 2:23 pm
=They were definitely working from Census estimates.=
I think they were working more from a bias and felt the data validated it so they doubled down on their rhetoric.
Comment by Pundent Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 2:27 pm
===I understand your point, but the people expressing this faux outrage do not fit into any of your categories. ===
For clarity’s sake the columnists at the Chicago Tribune might be producing faux outrage, but by the time it filters on down to the talking points used by state and local elected officials it’s presented as a real outrage.
Generational poverty is a very real thing and we will sometimes overlook generational rural poverty but as I type this right now there are tens of thousands of Illinois students attending their K-12 classes in schools that are comparatively underfunded and pay non-competitive teacher wages that are forced to raise a significant portion of their budget from local property tax levies which is exacerbating the problem and making it very possible for where someone is born and where they live to determine whether or not the GOP is going to successfully convince them that the only reason why rural white Illinoisans don’t live in the Big Rock Candy Mountain is because of Chicago politics.
While we debate whether it’s nature or nurture, there’s already people coming up in Illinois that are going to be outraged that they do not have their cigarette trees, lemonade springs, and soft-boiled egg laying chickens.
Ignoring that they’re there and how they got there won’t make them go away, so don’t be shocked when they show up to hang the jerk who invented work.
Comment by Candy Dogood Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 2:27 pm
Pundent wins the day.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 2:29 pm
– there are tens of thousands of Illinois students attending their K-12 classes in schools that are comparatively underfunded –
Yes there are. And the loudest, though not often majority, complaint to solve that is to cut state funding. The exact opposite of the approach needed to fix it.
That then boils over to who these people elect, who have the power to cut funding or at the very least stand on their bully pulpit in the legislative chambers advocating for it.
Which comes right back to the saying - it’s not the state causing the problems for these people, but their internal locus on where they think the problem is. Calling for cuts to the state budget, to fix their underfunded schools will not solve their problem, but in fact make it much worse.
I don’t blame them, as on the surface it does seem counterintuitive that cutting state spending would actually lead to increasing local property taxes, but that’s how the state funding model works.
What’s the solution? How do you try to communicate with those who hold these views that the way to address at least some of their problem is by increasing state spending? And what happens if explaining that still doesn’t work? Is it because there is a problem with the state, or…
Comment by TheInvisibleMan Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 2:36 pm
I guess if you believe the constant drumbeat of negativity the Trib marches to, you would be frantically planning your escape from this horrible place. I’ve been reading about their problem with Illinois for a long long time. According to them, we’re all doomed. Any day now. Plan for it.
Having relatives in a variety of other states,and comparing those states to Illinois, I can’t seem to find the utopian State of America.
I wonder if there’s something desirable for the likes of the Tribbies to drives folks out of here. Bad for circulation tho…………
Comment by A Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 2:43 pm
It’s not about how many leave; it’s about who is coming in to replace them, and how many of the available replacements want to come here, versus other American cities and states.
We are not attracting low-skilled manual laborers for manufacturing any more, those jobs are mostly gone. And the agricultural jobs are dwindling with mechanization. We’re trying to attract skilled, highly educated people from other states and abroad, and the place that attracts those the most is Chicago and the collars. The competition for those bodies is fierce. Government policy at the national level did not help.
Anyway, stop hand wringing over retention and put more effort into recruiting. Chase what will be, not what was.
Comment by Give Us Barabbas Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 2:50 pm
== Hey losing people over 10 years when 47 other states are gaining population is a problem no matter how you want to look at it.==
There are more seniors in Illinois. In the next decade I’m sure Illinois will lose even more. The rest of the country will follow. In thirty years one of our every four Americans will be a senior. Who will do the work?
Comment by Fly like an eagle Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 3:09 pm
=== Hey losing people over 10 years when 47 other states are gaining population is a problem no matter how you want to look at it.===
Oh - Sue -, in the end, it was ONE House seat, and an over-wanting of things to be bad.
You are continuing that “want it to be bad” instead of looking at what it means.
In actuality, these past ten years were the slowest population growth in recent memory, for the country as well. One example.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 3:15 pm
Forget the like button as I am moving on to love for this one.
Dear TheInvisibleMan,
How dare you call Buckaroo Bonzai a b-movie
Comment by Lurker Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 3:16 pm
it’s been a seat every decade for decades–kinda like bankruptcy–starts real slow then happens all at once–take a look at the loss of seats in blue states–tax and spend will not grow jobs–period.
Comment by Anon Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 3:39 pm
=== take a look at the loss of seats in blue states–tax and spend will not grow jobs–period.===
Ya gotta turn off FoxNews. Seriously
Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Michigan, and Ohio are Republican run legislatures
Keep up.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 3:45 pm
Those four were blue. Wonder why they’ve trended red.
Comment by Perplexed Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 3:58 pm
Good, let’s flush the right wing exodus and gloom and doom narrative. It comes from people who do great in Illinois: editorial board members, long-time columnists, think tank leaders, hedge fund billionaires, etc.
Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 4:02 pm
=== Those four were blue. Wonder why they’ve trended red.===
Except… Pennsylvania and Michigan still voted Biden.
I know you get perplexed, but it’s more difficult than parroting FoxNews or Facebook when you have to think
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 4:02 pm
===Those four were blue===
When was West Virginia blue?
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 4:06 pm
=== ===Those four were blue===
When was West Virginia blue?===
Same with Ohio…
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 4:10 pm
== take a look at the loss of seats in blue states.==
States that lost a seat: California, New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Ohio, and West Virginia
California, New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois and Ohio are in the 7 top most populous states. They had people to lose.
Comment by Fly like an eagle Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 5:23 pm
I moved to Chicago from out of state in 2002. At that time, and since then, I’ve always been confused by the anti-Illinois and anti-Chicago of the major press and business community. Other places are prone to boosterism, exaggerating the good and downplaying the bad about a city or state. Chicago IL media is unrelentingly anti Chicago and anti IL. It is all just an alibi for endless austerity. Cut public sector until the services provided suck, they lose public support and then you can cut some more. All of this to keep taxes as low as possible. IL and Chicago are good places to live if you are rich - you pay comparatively lower taxes. Endless cuts, keep taxes low. That is objective for the all the anti Chicago and anti IL media.
Comment by 1848 Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 5:47 pm
What do gubernatorial wannabes do that based their campaign on Illinois flight? Apparently it’s just a few millionaires that left for income tax free states like WY and FL.
Not exactly the populist rallying cry.
Our state losing house seats for past decades is growth of the sunbelt states… with a fixed number of 435.
Comment by Masharshi Yogi Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 6:24 pm
According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (2019-2020), Illinois is ranked 12th of all states in per capita personal income. Indiana is ranked 35th, Tennessee 38th, Florida and Texas in the bottom 25–all states the exodus pushers want us to become. State income rankings are more or less static over years. Red states are not going to be consequentially wealthier, nor are we going to be significantly poorer. We should avoid like the plague policies that could precipitously drop our incomes.
Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, Apr 27, 21 @ 7:54 pm