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Dems pack tons of Republicans together

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* Lots of scrambling ahead…


The first set of paired House incumbents. First # is new district; (X-##) are current party/district:
46: Conroy (D-46) and Mazzochi (R-47)
47: Grant (R-42) and Lewis (R-45)
50: Wheeler (R-50) and Ugaste (R-65)
51: Bos (R-51) and Morrison (R-54)
87: Sommer (R-88) and Luft (R-91)

— Andrew Ellison (@AndrewPEllison) May 23, 2021

Additionally, these Senate incumbents have been paired:
23: Thomas Cullerton (D-23) and Suzanne Glowiak (D-24)
55: Jason Plummer (R-54) and Darren Bailey (R-55)

— Andrew Ellison (@AndrewPEllison) May 23, 2021

* But not all Republicans were on the losing end. Politico

Stephens gains ground: Republican Rep. Brad Stephens (20th) was an exception among GOP House lawmakers. His seat gained ground in Chicago (from the 41st and 38th Wards) and Rosemont, where he is mayor.

Relief for McConchie: The redraw of Senate Minority Leader Dan McConchie puts primary competitor Casey Urlacher in a different district.

…Adding… More on the packing…


From my analysis, Brad Halbrook and Blaine Wilhour each represent ~30% of the new HD-107, ensuring a heated primary battle. In contrast, Dan Caulkins and Adam Niemerg represent very small portions of the new district, making it unlikely that they will survive a contested primary.

— Andrew Ellison (@AndrewPEllison) May 24, 2021

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, May 24, 21 @ 8:13 am

Comments

  1. McConchie getting relief and Bailey-Plummer, with Bailey running statewide (at least for now) helps (for lack of a better description I guess) in looking at how the party might make “changes by the map” and re-establish some of the pre-Rauner/Trump mentality to party, winning, and viability all over the state.

    It’s like growing pains, but by packing districts it allows some serious discussions, choices, and a fork in the road to who or what the party is and can be in these next 10 years.

    Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, May 24, 21 @ 8:24 am

  2. Even if those districts do remove 2 or 3 of Eastern Bloc guys it doesn’t mean IL GOP will moderate itself. Party rank and file are strongly with Trump and will elect someone who represents their views. Times have changed. The Edgar, Thompson, and Topinka wing of party will find themselves at home with Dems.

    Comment by ILRes Monday, May 24, 21 @ 8:36 am

  3. I look forward to the Plummer-Bailey cage fight.

    Comment by Cheryl44 Monday, May 24, 21 @ 8:37 am

  4. I think Urlacher was at the edge of McConchie’s district anyway.

    Comment by DTAG Monday, May 24, 21 @ 8:41 am

  5. My part of Chatham is in the new 54th Senate/108th House.

    I just found an interactive, user-generated Google Map of the proposed House and Senate districts here:

    House: https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1_KqvPly2A2uOlCIpPYgy25xyIvBlSTgK&ll=39.16319553005928%2C-89.07882870217244&z=8

    Senate: https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1JIS2n6K7IgkXQKUkoA0LlGvR7Q5Ywx4l&ll=38.976032817957375%2C-89.9749603374611&z=12

    Isn’t Rep. Amy Elik (current 111th) from Fosterburg, northeast of Alton? At least at the time she defeated Bristow last fall? If so, she’s also mapped with Frese and Davidsmeyer in the new 100th House.

    Comment by EssentialStateEmployeeFromChatham Monday, May 24, 21 @ 8:57 am

  6. Glad to see Union county being regrouped into one district.

    If your rural county is split in half, you don’t have two reps, you have none.

    Comment by Flyin' Elvis'-Utah Chapter Monday, May 24, 21 @ 8:59 am

  7. Whoever runs in the new 94th House (Hammond, Anderson?) better have a huge gas and advertising budget. All the way from Athens to Andalusia. And Quincy, Springfield, Quad Cities and Peoria TV markets to spend ad $$$ in.

    Comment by EssentialStateEmployeeFromChatham Monday, May 24, 21 @ 9:01 am

  8. I would not be surprised if one of the current Springfield GOP reps (Butler or Murphy) announces that he will not seek another term in the House–and in the same press conference announces that he will challenge Jim Langfelder for mayor in 2023.

    Comment by EssentialStateEmployeeFromChatham Monday, May 24, 21 @ 9:05 am

  9. The GOP can complain. Winners make maps. The Democrats won fair and square. If the GOP wants to make a map, they should start winning elections.

    Comment by Bears Fan Monday, May 24, 21 @ 9:06 am

  10. Bears Fan - not just GOP complaining. “Winners” shouldn’t minimize my voting power to as little as possible. And gerrymandering artificially affects primary races. How about if -all- politicians want to get elected, they do it without an artificial assist?

    Comment by lake county democrat Monday, May 24, 21 @ 9:12 am

  11. I think it would have helped if the GQP had been the party of “let’s get things done” instead of “let’s complain and say crazy stuff”. This, as has been said time and time again, is the result of shrinking appeal (demonstrated by election results) and a general unwillingness to participate in governance.

    Comment by JS Mill Monday, May 24, 21 @ 9:14 am

  12. It appears Oak Park will be going back to the days when there was only one senate and house seat representing the community. Yes!

    Comment by The Edge Monday, May 24, 21 @ 9:25 am

  13. *GQP*

    maybe if the democrat party focused more on governing and less on fringe social issues, there would be something to discuss.

    Comment by USA made Monday, May 24, 21 @ 9:29 am

  14. “focused more on governing”

    Stimulus payments, record vaccine deployment, biggest infrastructure investments since the New Deal.

    Other than that, yeah, nothing.

    Comment by Flyin' Elvis'-Utah Chapter Monday, May 24, 21 @ 9:31 am

  15. === maybe if the democrat party===

    Aw. Rush Limbaugh would be so proud.

    They’re the majority here, Democrats, they are making policy with majority votes in the GA and a signature from the governor.

    Keep up.

    “democrat party”… seriously?

    Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, May 24, 21 @ 9:35 am

  16. * stimulus payments *

    Those are DPI accomplishments? I think not.

    Comment by USA made Monday, May 24, 21 @ 9:36 am

  17. * “democrat party”… seriously?*

    GQP, seriously?

    Comment by USA made Monday, May 24, 21 @ 9:37 am

  18. Everyone calm down. According to the House Democrats, it is a myth this is a partisan map. They would never lie to us.

    Comment by Just Me 2 Monday, May 24, 21 @ 9:38 am

  19. “Democrat Party”

    Oh, aren’t you just the cutest thing? Lol.

    Comment by low level Monday, May 24, 21 @ 9:44 am

  20. === GQP, seriously?===

    The cult leader required Liz Cheney to be removed from leadership because she refused to say the election was “stolen”, so for telling the truth.

    Name another failed one term president or party nominee that, after losing, controlled congressional leadership decisions.

    The first goal to get out of a cult… realize… you’re in a cult.

    To the map, to bring this back to Illinois and its map…

    Dems are going to force the Trumpkin/Raunerites to choose if they want relevance in the GA, or appeasement to cult thinking, making them even more irrelevant.

    This could be a fight for the GOP in a way that the ILGOP finally has the “crazies running the asylum”, and can’t get back to winning, or a purging to be a significant foe, say, in the collars and suburban Cook.

    Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, May 24, 21 @ 9:46 am

  21. “maybe if the democrat party focused more on governing and less on fringe social issues, there would be something to discuss”

    Maybe if Republicans focused on something besides denying rights to LGBTQ citizens, abortion, crazy conspiracy theories, and denigrating minorities and immigrants and instead focused on policies that matter, then maybe they would have a chance at relevance.

    Comment by Manchester Monday, May 24, 21 @ 9:46 am

  22. Every decade we see this happening. Mostly out of partisanship. A few out of necessity and occasional map to target an unpopular (among the members) legislator. This is done by the party that controls the map, whether it be the Dems or the GQP.

    Comment by Norseman Monday, May 24, 21 @ 9:52 am

  23. Wow, look at Macomb.

    House: https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1_KqvPly2A2uOlCIpPYgy25xyIvBlSTgK&ll=39.16319553005928%2C-89.07882870217244&z=8

    Senate: https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=1JIS2n6K7IgkXQKUkoA0LlGvR7Q5Ywx4l&ll=38.976032817957375%2C-89.9749603374611&z=12

    Am I misunderstanding the maps, or is the city actually being segmented into two districts?

    Comment by Tev Monday, May 24, 21 @ 9:56 am

  24. If this map doesn’t get Moderate Republicans to come up with very solid candidates to run against whoever the Democratic Statewide candidates are then nothing will get them back into politics in a meaningful way in Illinois.

    Comment by Back to the Future Monday, May 24, 21 @ 10:10 am

  25. I should add that Stephen’s should be fine either way.

    Comment by Been There Monday, May 24, 21 @ 10:11 am

  26. ==Those are DPI accomplishments? I think not.==

    I mean, if you want to focus on Illinois Democrats, we can talk about recreational marijuana, Rebuild Illinois, sports gambling, Rural Broadband, and paying down the bill backlog.

    Comment by Arsenal Monday, May 24, 21 @ 10:11 am

  27. ==GQP, seriously?==

    …yeah, y’know what, fair.

    Although it’s not like “GOP” is the party’s official name in the first place. “Grand Old Party” is just a tidy bit of branding. But still. We could do with less jargon.

    Comment by Arsenal Monday, May 24, 21 @ 10:14 am

  28. === Those are DPI accomplishments? I think not.===

    So you’re for the stimulus?

    I mean… how many Illinois Congress Critters voted for them… and by party?

    Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, May 24, 21 @ 10:16 am

  29. ==Wow, look at Macomb.==

    Looks like most of the city, including WIU, is in the new 36th Senate with the exception of some of the south and southeast outskirts of town (including south of Grant Street near Macomb High School).

    And if you think Macomb was bad, look at Chatham. Split between new 54th Senate (McClure maybe?)/108th House (Bourne or Murphy) and the 48th Senate (Turner)/95th House (Butler but could be a Democratic pickup opportunity)?

    Comment by EssentialStateEmployeeFromChatham Monday, May 24, 21 @ 10:21 am

  30. I’m assuming Bears Fan is snark, since he/she would surely understand the current map is also gerrymandered.

    Comment by Just Me 2 Monday, May 24, 21 @ 10:22 am

  31. I should also add that both WIU campuses (the main in Macomb and the beleaguered Quad Cities campus) will be in the 36th Senate if this map holds.

    Comment by EssentialStateEmployeeFromChatham Monday, May 24, 21 @ 10:22 am

  32. And is it just me or did it seem like the Democrats officially wrote off additional former D strongholds in western Illinois: Whiteside County (Sterling), Fulton County (Canton/Farmington/Lewistown with strong union and mining tradition), and Macoupin and Montgomery (same as Fulton).

    As far as the 108th House/54th Senate is concerned, if this map was drawn even 20-30 years ago for that same area it would even have been viewed as a GOP gerrymander against Demuzio and Hanning.

    Comment by EssentialStateEmployeeFromChatham Monday, May 24, 21 @ 10:27 am

  33. Is DPI prepared to take the next steps after this map? Those steps would be recruiting and helping fund serious Democratic candidates in the areas where they packed Republicans together. If not, this is just a parlor game.

    Comment by someonehastosayit Monday, May 24, 21 @ 10:37 am

  34. ==Is DPI prepared to take the next steps after this map? Those steps would be recruiting and helping fund serious Democratic candidates in the areas where they packed Republicans together.==

    Especially in a distrtict like the new 95th House, could be some strong Dem contenders for a pickup depending on what part of the map there in. Especially some of the Democratic women that won seats in Springfield and Chatham recently (Lakeisha Purchase, Erin Conley, Kristin Dicenso, maybe Kristen Chiaro of Chatham and perhaps at least one of the progressive “slate” members that won in the Chatham school board race recently i.e., Saunders, Strahle, Redinger). Perhaps Marc Bell of Chatham makes another run for the House?

    Comment by EssentialStateEmployeeFromChatham Monday, May 24, 21 @ 10:46 am

  35. stephens gains ground? the combine still lives.

    Comment by Amalia Monday, May 24, 21 @ 10:50 am

  36. >I should also add that both WIU campuses

    WIU owns property in Macomb that is in two different districts; the Horn Field Campus (outdoor parks/rec training) is south of the main campus.

    Comment by Tev Monday, May 24, 21 @ 10:51 am

  37. ==WIU owns property in Macomb that is in two different districts; the Horn Field Campus (outdoor parks/rec training) is south of the main campus.==

    That is correct. Plus WIU’s NPR station WIUM has their transmitter near Horn Field Campus.

    Plus doesn’t WIU still have the Kibbe campus near Carthage or Nauvoo, or somewhere along the MIssissippi River? That will be in the new 47th Senate/94th House while the main campus is in the new QC/Galesburg/Monmouth/Macomb district. (Which will contain 8 college campuses: Knox, Monmouth, and Augustana Colleges; Carl Sandburg and Black Hawk junior colleges plus Spoon River’s Macomb campus at the old high school; plus WIU-Macomb and WIU-QC).

    Comment by EssentialStateEmployeeFromChatham Monday, May 24, 21 @ 10:55 am

  38. ==And if you think Macomb was bad, look at Chatham.==

    It gets even worse when you look at Toulon (population 1,292, Stark County seat, and Jim Nowlan’s hometown). Toulon is split between the proposed 37th and 47th Senate seats.

    Comment by EssentialStateEmployeeFromChatham Monday, May 24, 21 @ 11:15 am

  39. ==And if you think Macomb was bad, look at Chatham.==

    It gets even worse when you look at Toulon==

    And elsewhere in western Illinois it gets even worse. Woodhull (pop. 818), where Rep. Swanson is from, is split between the 36th and 37th Senates. Although all of the town except the far west near I-74 (including Woodhull Plaza truck stop) is in the proposed 37th Senate/74th House. While the interstate and Woodhull Plaza are in the 36th Senate.

    And if you want a laugh for the day, when the Google Street View car went through Woodhull in July 2018, Rep. Swanson had a sign in front of the Woodhull Plaza lawn:

    https://www.google.com/maps/@41.1782364,-90.3236059,3a,18.6y,259.91h,85.24t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1s4cUTVtIaZjFgtJd1E7Ldyg!2e0!7i13312!8i6656

    If it’s still there, look for it to be moved across the street to the east next year.

    And Good Hope, just north of Macomb, is also split between 36th and 37th Senate. West side of town in 37th and east side in 37th. Good Hope is population 396 but is famous for two sets of stoplights in town on 67–and the only remaining area of 2-lane 67 between Monmouth and Macomb.

    Comment by EssentialStateEmployeeFromChatham Monday, May 24, 21 @ 11:31 am

  40. Gotta love how insurrectionists, and those who support them always try to wrap themselves in the flag of the country they tried to overthrow. USA made, lookin at you.

    Comment by PublicServant Monday, May 24, 21 @ 11:35 am

  41. I dont see Butler really not running ….his profile is pretty big currently. Now murphy i think is much more likely to announce a run for mayor.

    Comment by reddevil1 Monday, May 24, 21 @ 11:57 am

  42. =maybe if the democrat party focused more on governing and less on fringe social issues=

    LGBTQ folks and people of color that want to vote would disagree with you a bit. Same with the anti-vax and anti-science movement, QAnon etc.

    Help me out, why does every right wing fringe group always name itself using what used to be meaningful patriotic words in an effort at furthering the opposite?

    Or is irony dead with you?

    To the post: rural Illinois is losing population faster than any other segment. It was always going to be hard to draw districts and balance population numbers.

    Comment by JS Mill Monday, May 24, 21 @ 12:07 pm

  43. “51: Bos (R-51) and Morrison (R-54)”

    Not quite that simple. 53 (Walker [D]) gets split in half while 54 gets split into thirds. The north half of 53 goes to 54. Southeast third of 54 goes to 53. West third of 54 goes to 51. Just a wild guess, but it seems possible this strengthens Walker’s reelection and weakens Morrison’s.

    Comment by From DaZoo Monday, May 24, 21 @ 12:20 pm

  44. I am sure that the Districts are supposed to be based on census data….and since it has not been released, there is no way to make a legal map. Oh but I forgot, this is Illinois. Since we have the most legislators, all but one being Democrats, in the past few years indicted and either declared guilty or are awaiting trial, they do not believe they need to follow the rules or the laws. There will be millions of taxpayer dollars spent in court. If they just did it right and legal the first time they would spear everyone the expense. But no, they would rather do what they want and not care about the Illinois taxpayers.

    Comment by Palatine Pop Monday, May 24, 21 @ 12:45 pm

  45. ==It gets even worse when you look at Toulon (population 1,292, Stark County seat, and Jim Nowlan’s hometown). Toulon is split between the proposed 37th and 47th Senate seats.==

    I wonder if the Toulon split example might lead Nowlan to write a column soon criticizing these proposed maps and calling for independent redistricting. (The local newspaper in Chatham runs Nowlan’s columns).

    Comment by EssentialStateEmployeeFromChatham Monday, May 24, 21 @ 12:56 pm

  46. ===I am sure that the Districts are supposed to be based on census data===

    Didja read the Illinois Constitution before pronouncing yourself sure?

    Comment by Rich Miller Monday, May 24, 21 @ 1:46 pm

  47. Dumping all the Eastern Bloc folks into one district is sweet justice.

    Comment by The Way I See It Monday, May 24, 21 @ 1:55 pm

  48. No question that the Dems drew this to their advantage. But at the end of the day, it’s the job of a political party to put forth candidates and messaging that resonates with a majority of voters. I am not optimistic that the ILGOP has learned anything from the aftermath of the 2020 election. We will continue to see a small tent GOP in campaigns across the state. It’s unfortunate to see but not surprising.

    Comment by SuburbanRepublican Monday, May 24, 21 @ 3:06 pm

  49. ==maybe if the democrat party ==

    I know some of you are proud of yourself when you say things like that but you really do make yourself look ridiculous.

    It’s Democratic Party. Say it with me. Dem-o-crat-ic. See, was that hard?

    Comment by Demoralized Monday, May 24, 21 @ 3:13 pm

  50. I appreciate most of Champaign-Urbana being grouped together in the 103rd, but it is somewhat surprising that such a strongly Dem enclave is not split more to pick up a neighboring district.

    Comment by thechampaignlife Monday, May 24, 21 @ 3:45 pm

  51. ==Isn’t Rep. Amy Elik (current 111th) from Fosterburg, northeast of Alton? At least at the time she defeated Bristow last fall? If so, she’s also mapped with Frese and Davidsmeyer in the new 100th House.==

    I stand corrected, it looks like Frese and Davidsmeyer are mapped together in the proposed 99th. I look for Elik to run in the new 100th which extends from north Alton almost to Quincy and Jacksonville.

    Comment by EssentialStateEmployeeFromChatham Monday, May 24, 21 @ 4:01 pm

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