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* From a now-discredited Redfin report…
For states with the lowest taxes, an average of four people moved in from other parts of the country for every one person who left over the last eight years. The trend is reversed in high-tax states, where an average of 2.5 people left for every one person who moved in. […]
On the other end of the spectrum, states with high taxes tend to lose residents. New York, which lost more residents than any other state from 2013 through 2020 (for every eight people who left, just one person moved in) has the sixth-highest tax rate in the U.S. Note that recent data from the U.S. Census shows that the population of New York state unexpectedly grew over the last decade, based on births, deaths, immigration and domestic migration. The estimated data in this report is based only on domestic migration.
Illinois and New Jersey are both among the top four states in the country in terms of both taxes and the number of people moving away.
* Crain’s initially ran with the story, then took a look at its methodology and retracted…
Crain’s has delved into a new report on outmigration data collected by Redfin and determined that the underlying methodology reflected in a news story published earlier today is flawed.
Redfin, an online real estate marketplace, compared one year’s worth of inbound moves to Illinois with eight years of outbound moves and reached a misleading conclusion. The methodology Redfin used didn’t only apply to Illinois; it was applied to the company’s analysis of 48 states.
I’ve asked Redfin for comment.
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 9:29 am
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There’s “Lies, (banned word) Lies, and Statistics” and then there is this study. How could Redfin publish that with a straight face?
Comment by Montrose Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 9:32 am
Redfin’s reply… “Well, yes, the conclusion may be misleading. But, it bolsters our opinion, so we stand behind it.”
Comment by Bruce( no not him) Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 9:39 am
I’d read the retraction on Crain’s if they weren’t asking me to pay money to read their apology for the lies they just tried to feed me.
Laughable stuff.
Comment by Larry Bowa Jr. Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 9:54 am
Maybe this is the secret to Redfin’s success: balance sheets that show one year of expenses offset by eight years of income.
A nice trick if you can pull it off.
– MrJM
Comment by @misterjayem Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 9:56 am
The sad part is people remember the initial lie and never remember the retraction.
Comment by illinifan Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 10:02 am
==Crain’s initially ran with the story, then took a look at its methodology==
Maybe try the inverse next time, eh? I appreciate the retraction nonetheless.
Comment by The Doc Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 10:03 am
Check out the Crain’s headline for the retraction
Comment by Tomato Soup Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 10:07 am
Redfin has an investor, a holder of State of Illinois bonds, one John Tillman? /s
Comment by Anyone Remember Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 10:08 am
Compared one to eight and reached a conclusion that was easily uncovered to be a ruse?
Redfin may want to look at becoming a ratings agency. It appears they share the same ethical standards.
Comment by Flyin' Elvis'-Utah Chapter Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 10:09 am
The Trib editorial board will never let go of “Illinois Exodus.” What purpose does it have other than the ceaseless desire to slash the public sector?
Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 10:12 am
Trib will never let go of Illinois Exodus in order to slash the public sector
Yesterday’s editorial was at it again. Their true belief is that the entire deficit is caused by exorbitant benefits. They deliberately omit the diversion of funding to any area but the pension funds, which is the true cause of the deficit. Makes them look pretty dumb, if you overlook the dishonesty angle. Cheat the public of information
Comment by A Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 10:33 am
I would suspect that most people who do leave don’t leave due to property taxes. Don’t forget you can deduct your taxes. I assume most people leave due to a new job, lower housing costs, better weather.
Comment by Publius Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 10:59 am
Now will Crains admit that there are also major flaws with their ridiculous Chicago Index non-poll poll survey thing?
Comment by SaulGoodman Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 11:03 am
Crain’s description is inconsistent with Redfin’s description of their methodology. Redfin said they used 2020 tax rates but used “net migration to and from 48 U.S. states from 2013 to 2020.”
Methodology
The data in this report is from a Redfin analysis of net migration to and from 48 U.S. states from 2013 to 2020.
Comment by natty lite Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 11:13 am
I will be leaving Illinois for Wisconsin when I retire. It is not because of taxes but because my family has roots in Wisconsin and I want to live in a quieter less densely populated area after retirement. Why not southern Illinois? Because my family has generations of roots in Wisconsin and I feel like it is a personal decision. Basically, not all out migration has anything to do with taxes and/or politics. Although, I am having a hard time paying all of the bills as they keep getting bigger compared to my paycheck
Comment by Fred Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 11:22 am
I read yesterday that West Virginia had the highest out-migration (proportionately). So, how does that square with “taxes cause out-migration” arguments?
Comment by H-W Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 12:16 pm
Apparently Redfin hired an IPI staffer to do this ’study’.
Out-migration for a variety of factors is real, however; we lost a Federal legislative seat as a result of it.
Comment by thisjustinagain Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 12:29 pm
West Virginia even has country roads with the *specific purpose* of taking you home.
Comment by Shark Sandwich Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 12:30 pm
I may be leaving Illinois for Austin Texas for family reasons, not taxes. Does Redfin have an asterix for me?
No income taxes in Texas, but property taxes in Austin are just as bad, and possibly worse than suburban Chicago.
Comment by Suburbanon Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 12:41 pm
When retired public employees relocate, it’s not to avoid income taxes since retirement income is completely exempt from the IL income tax.
Comment by anon2 Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 2:35 pm