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The country’s declining covid-19 case rates present an unrealistically optimistic perspective for half of the nation — the half that is still not vaccinated.
As more people receive vaccines, covid-19 cases are occurring mostly in the increasingly narrow slice of the unprotected population. So The Washington Post adjusted its case, death and hospitalization rates to account for that — and found that in some places, the virus continues to rage among those who haven’t received a shot.
The rosy national figures showing declining case numbers led the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to loosen mask recommendations last week and President Biden to advise people to take off their masks and smile.
But adjustments for vaccinations show the rate among susceptible, unvaccinated people is 69 percent higher than the standard figures being publicized. With that adjustment, the national death rate is roughly the same as it was two months ago and is barely inching down. The adjusted hospitalization rate is as high as it was three months ago. The case rate is still declining after the adjustment.
* WaPo calculated average new daily deaths per 1 million Illinois residents. The all Illinois residents rate is the black line, the Illinois rate adjusted for vaccinations (defined as anyone who has received at least one shot) is the solid purple line. The adjusted US rate is the dotted purple line…
Illinois had a 7-day average of about 50 deaths per day on February 16. That’s about double what the 7-day average is right now.
There are about 3.5 million totally unvaxed adults in Illinois out of about 9.5 million adults. WaPo reduced the number of fully or partially vaccinated adults by 15 percent to account for “breakthrough” cases to calculate the deaths per million. That’s way too much, but whatever.
[Hat tip to a commenter for the link.]
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 2:51 pm
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One might expect those not Vaccinated to know many others also not vaccinated.
As they become personally aware of people getting sick, they might become far more motivated to get vaccinated.
Or suffer the consequences….
Comment by Fav Human Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 2:57 pm
If they are an adult who who is willingly choosing to forgo vaccination (and not due to medical reasons) then I don’t have much sympathy for them at this point. I have an aunt in the hospital right now who thought it was funny that no one in her office wore a mask . She had symptoms for a week before seeking treatment so she likely exposed others. She had 3 months to get the vaccine but thought the virus was just “hype.”
Comment by Grimlock Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 3:02 pm
I mean, duh?
Comment by Nick Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 3:11 pm
We must continue the outreach, including taking the vaccine to people who can’t even walk to a nearby clinic, drugstore, or other site/facility giving the shots. Mobile teams, pop-up sites, whatever it takes to make availability better. Go 24/7 if needed; get retired professionals refresher trained and let them go to it. Use the Guard and Reserve medical units, college/university nursing school instructors with licenses. Set up at sports stadiums, bars, commuter parking lots, the local feed store, the corner grocer, wherever, whenever.
And for those who refuse the shots out of political concerns (not actual medical contraindicators recognized in the US), it’s time to take your heads out the sand, roll up your sleeves, and get it done for the country and people you claim to care so much about (banned punctuation).
Comment by thisjustinagain Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 3:23 pm
Keep at it, folks. Hard work still ahead of us.
And thank you to those who’ve already done their part and gotten the shot(s).
Comment by Paying Attention Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 3:27 pm
Click through the reports on the right hand side. The latest report has some of the highest case numbers in a long, long time for this area. Just because people are outside more, doesn’t seem to be correcting the curve. https://www.dewittpiatthealth.com/index.php
Comment by Anon221 Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 3:36 pm
Trying to look at info on COVID variants as it comes out. One study shows the Pfizer vaccine is 88% effective against an India variant, after two doses. This seems very important because of many who won’t get the vaccine, and possible or likely mutations as a result. I would like medical science to prepare as much as possible for not reaching herd immunity.
State vaccination rates are generally higher in so-called blue states. Wish greatly this wasn’t the case, but certain states are busy passing laws putting religious slogans in schools, banning “critical race theory,” overriding local government gun laws, banning vaccine passports, etc—not great priorities as we struggle to beat the worst pandemic in a century.
Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 3:40 pm
I know a number of people that WON’T take the shot. We have done our part and my whole family (10 year old can’t take it yet) is vaccinated. There comes a time when the herd needs to be thinned….
Comment by JDuc Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 4:05 pm
I guess that means we haven’t yet reached herd immunity in Illinois
Comment by DBloom Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 4:25 pm
This is why it’s still important to mask up, especially since so many children are unvaccinated.
Comment by Wensicia Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 4:29 pm
Those same people are presumably also the ones who easily fall for the empty promises of conservative economic policies/pro-unfettered capitalism, so I’d say insurance companies should say their not covering their medical bills or charge them more for willfully becoming a liability and hence a threat to their bottom line.
Comment by Here thy Adam Smith Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 4:41 pm
=== their not covering ===
correction: they’re not covering
Comment by Here thy Adam Smith Tuesday, May 25, 21 @ 4:43 pm
I am vaccinated but am immunocompromised. I notified my agency with a note from my dr. they insist I return to work next week anyway. they had a positive in-office case last Thursday & had to close to clean. frustrated.
Comment by Pnut Wednesday, May 26, 21 @ 10:42 am