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* The national Democrats should probably send some observers to Illinois campaigns because nobody has ever once written a story complaining that Illinois Democrats (or Republicans) were being too nice and bipartisan in their advertising…
As Democrats face a 2022 midterm landscape that could cost them the House, they are grappling with hard strategic challenges. Democrats in tough districts with many Republican voters in them feel twin pressures: one is to emphasize their bipartisan outreach. The other is to refrain from prosecuting the case against GOP radicalization too forcefully.
A new analysis of House Democratic losses in 2020 done by a progressive donor and strategy group — which is circulating among Democratic strategists — suggests some counterintuitive answers for Democrats navigating these pressures.
The analysis — which was done by the group Way to Win and was provided to me — suggests large TV-ad expenditures on emphasizing bipartisan outreach do not appear to have paid dividends for House Democrats in the 2020 elections. […]
As it happens, the DCCC’s own internal analysis, reported on by Paul Kane, has similarly concluded that Democrats were caught off guard by the potency of GOP attacks.
Hilarious. And the chair of the DCCC last year was an Illinoisan, albeit one without any state-level campaign experience.
Go read the rest. And there’s more here.
…Adding… ILGOP fundraising email…
Friends,
It has never been more important to FIRE PRITZKER than it is now. 2022 is rapidly approaching, and it’s past time Illinois had a change in leadership.
With Pritzker in the Governor’s Mansion (no, not the mansion he pulled all of the toilets out of to avoid paying taxes), here’s how Illinois has fared:
🚫 NO protection for our police officers
🚫 An economy in SHAMBLES
🚫 Government CORRUPTION
🚫 RADICAL LEFTWING policies
Is this the kind of state we want to live in? Is this the kind of leadership we want representing us? NO.
The ILGOP is fighting back. But we need YOUR help to do so. Big change starts with small donations, so chip in and become part of the change!
CHIP IN TO FIRE PRITZKER!
posted by Rich Miller
Friday, May 28, 21 @ 11:32 am
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Radical left wing policies? Where?
Comment by Skeptic Friday, May 28, 21 @ 11:39 am
=NO protection for our police officers=
When did that happen?
Comment by JS Mill Friday, May 28, 21 @ 11:44 am
“RADICAL LEFTWING policies”
Precious, coming from the party who is defending an autocrat and has taken another step toward fascism with today’s vote in DC.
Comment by Grandson of Man Friday, May 28, 21 @ 11:45 am
Yeah, the national Democratic consultants demonstrated there weaknesses during the 2020 cycle. Why don’t they try something unique - like actually living in or listening to people in these regions of the Midwest so they understand the political terrain. Deeply out of touch, but extremely well paid in the process. No surprises when people complain about Democrats losing all over the Midwest.
Comment by west wing Friday, May 28, 21 @ 11:46 am
The thing about “Skyhook”… then “Skyhook, in reverse”… both were funded by 9-digit money… and both incumbents were having troubles with base (Quinn - Dem Labor, Rauner - Right flank)
I do find it adorable that “Fire Pritzker” is seemingly doubling down on old, angry, white, rural, and “back the badge” type… well, type “thinking”
Meanwhile, Pritzker is signing bills, will sign another budget, will have signed bills shoring up his base and his Democratic Party platform and re-election platform too.
To say it’s embarrassingly weak, without pointing out how sad it is… that’s showing mercy to the ILGOP.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, May 28, 21 @ 11:49 am
Madigan knew how to push and pull voters to his candidates. The DCCC obviously is lacking.
Comment by Frank talks Friday, May 28, 21 @ 11:54 am
After January 6th, isn’t it a bit of a reach for the GOP to own being pro-police?
Comment by levivotedforjudy Friday, May 28, 21 @ 11:55 am
OW: It is clear you have never run a campaign of any significance. Get a mitt and get in the game. The GOP used the Fire Madigan strategy very successfully to kill the tax, Kilbride, and Londridgan. Enjoy your holiday bbq. Please be careful with the lighter fluid.
Comment by CraCra Friday, May 28, 21 @ 11:56 am
=== Kilbride===
… who was replaced by a Dem… and the seat is redrawn.
The Fair Tax folks waited months and months and months to respond and finally let, not Madigan, but “taxing your retirement income” as a mitigating factor.
You’d know all that if you paid attention to the campaigns.
So you readily admit “Rauner Failed” worked too?
See, if you think this is a good strategy, you’d have to admit “Rauner Failed” worked… exceptionally.
Finally… the ILGOP has 6 quarters, 4 dimes, 2 nickels, and 9 pennies to push this… no wonder the ILGOP is pandering to old, angry, white, rural, “back the police” folks… they are easy marks for cash, even reoccurring type donations, lol
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, May 28, 21 @ 12:02 pm
I should have emphasized my other comments were more about the national trends. I fully expect Illinois to remain solidly in Democrat control.
Comment by RNUG Friday, May 28, 21 @ 12:09 pm
I worked a few campaigns for the HDs. Candidates and voters hated the negative ads/mailers DPI would run…. but DPI would say, “you want us to spend on you, we’re gonna message it how we think will be most effective.” The regional campaign managers would also respond to me when I complained that the voters thought our ads were too negative “they say that when they answer the door, but when they vote - they’ll remember the message.” DPI wasn’t wrong.
Comment by SuburbanWoman Friday, May 28, 21 @ 12:21 pm
=The GOP used the Fire Madigan strategy very successfully to kill the tax, Kilbride, and Londridgan.=
The GOP holds no statewide seats and seems increasingly more interested in appealing a very narrow group of angry, white, rural voters. It is an echo chamber.
Comment by Pundent Friday, May 28, 21 @ 12:22 pm
===The GOP used the Fire Madigan strategy very successfully to kill the tax, Kilbride, and Londridgan===
Yep. And now huge corporate loopholes are about to be closed, the court’s map was redrawn and that’ll cost a fortune to defend and dry up legislative contributions and Rodney may not even run for reelection.
Comment by Rich Miller Friday, May 28, 21 @ 12:28 pm
“Rodney may not even run for reelection.”
But he’ll run for something. Heck if my choice for SOS were him and Alexi… I… might actually vote for him. Maybe.
Comment by Ducky LaMoore Friday, May 28, 21 @ 12:31 pm
===Rodney may not even run for reelection.===
I was holding that in my back pocket for my “ignoring” Londridgan…
… and I was going to add this;
Rodney not running for re-elect, is it because Mary Miller abd her politics ran Rodney away from the seat… a seat that may be too far to the Right and not representative of what could win statewide?
I look at these “wins” of 2020, it reminds me of all the Speaker Daniels “wins” that eventually became, you guessed it, no wins.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, May 28, 21 @ 12:32 pm
How is running against a first term backbencher who quoted Hitler a challenge nowadays? Rodney is a pretty standard conservative Republican who deviates wrt labor or educational issues.
If he does run for gov or anything statewide how can he eke out a win? Is it possible? I also heard rumors Kirk Dillard is thinking of gov again… thoughts on him too??
Comment by Illinoisan66 Friday, May 28, 21 @ 12:48 pm
Can Rodney or any GOPer win the govs race?
Comment by 13thVoter Friday, May 28, 21 @ 12:51 pm
=== Can Rodney… ===
It’s possible.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, May 28, 21 @ 12:53 pm
=It’s possible.=
How probable? What’d the coalition look like?
Comment by 13thVoter Friday, May 28, 21 @ 12:54 pm
===- Oswego Willy - Wednesday, May 12, 21 @ 7:38 pm
Yeah, I absolutely think Davis can win. I do.
* He needs Griffin money.
* He will require Z at the helm.
* He will need Trumpkins to wholly stand down as he reaches for the middle.
* He will need ads that put Pritzker on his heels, constantly.
* He will need “regional” and “pointed” campaign pressure points and positives.
* He will need Rauner ground game infrastructure.
* He needs Trump himself to ignore the post-Primary walk away… from Trump.
… did I mention Griffin money? I did? Oh.
My seemingly “negative” takes… it’s about “who” Davis seems to be now… show me Davis as Z and Griffin money tries to shed the bad, highlight the good, and pointedly go after Pritzker, and show they can inflict serious damage.
Today? My lil list up top isn’t even 13% complete, and Davis hasn’t even declared.
Show me. Show me this campaign. Who knows, we may see it.===
Its possible, but.. that’s why we have elections.
Rodney needs to announce first, lol
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, May 28, 21 @ 12:56 pm
It’s hard to see Rodney winning the Governor’s seat in 2022 and even a primary victory will be challenging. The former President will be front and center in the next election. He demands it. And for Rodney that cuts both ways. He’s no longer loyal enough for the party and if he should make it through a primary he’ll be eviscerated for his ties to the President while he was in office.
Comment by Pundent Friday, May 28, 21 @ 12:59 pm
“Can Rodney…”
A lot of things are possible. So sure - it’s possible. But it ain’t’ probable.
And count me skeptical that “Z” or even a bunch of outside money will get it done. Republicans have created a murder labyrinth for anyone running in a statewide primary. Turn left and there’s a Q-Anon monster ready to behead you. Turn right and you face the unsolvable riddle of appealing to the state’s majority Dem base while having supported Trump and the GOP. Go straight and Pritzker’s money and operation will cut your arms off every day.
But hey - sure anything is possible.
Comment by DuPage Dem Friday, May 28, 21 @ 1:03 pm
Maybe the dems can pull the property tax records, and specifically exemptions claimed, on some of the republican members of the Illinois house.
Say for example in the house district that is numbered three short of one hundred.
Comment by TheInvisibleMan Friday, May 28, 21 @ 1:04 pm
After he announces, how is he going to get Griffin to help fund millions to the campaign, Rauner ground game infrastructure, get Trump out if the race, and all the things needed to win?
I lived in the 13th for years and my area people aren’t fans of him, but in rurals, Decatur, and M-E parts do. He does have a moderate image and is more willing to compromise with the other side than most GOPers, but his voting record is solidly conservative. How would that factor into campaigns?
Comment by 13thVoter Friday, May 28, 21 @ 1:07 pm
Rodney can win, doesn’t mean he will win.
Those are two different criteria.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, May 28, 21 @ 1:07 pm
=== He will need Trumpkins to wholly stand down as he reaches for the middle.===
Therein lies the rub. Davis will get clobbered in the primary if he reaches for the middle. The MAGA GOP doesn’t go for that.
Comment by Nick Name Friday, May 28, 21 @ 1:46 pm
===Therein lies the rub. Davis will get clobbered in the primary if he reaches for the middle.===
Those criteria had Davis getting through the primary, and facing Pritzker. That standing down would be after a primary fight.
Of course that doesn’t make it any easier with the Q, Trumpkin, conspiracy theorists…
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, May 28, 21 @ 2:01 pm
=Of course that doesn’t make it any easier with the Q, Trumpkin, conspiracy theorists=
It’s not that they’re some noisy influence in the party, they are the party. And the former President’s ego demands that they continue to profess loyalty to him. The Senate reaffirmed that earlier today. Each time the party has a chance to break with their recent past and forge a new way forward they refuse. Expecting that the party will somehow moderate in the next few years is beyond wishful thinking.
Comment by Pundent Friday, May 28, 21 @ 2:24 pm
===It’s not that they’re some noisy influence in the party, they are the party.===
We are all gonna see in 2022 how deep and how much can be done to either save the GOP, or maybe decimate the possibility of the GOP ever existing again.
I’ll go a bit deeper to this;
I say often, Illinois is not a blue state. I stand by that.
But you’ve hit to why I push back. I’ve conceded the Trumpkin/Q/Conspiracy theorists are running the asylum. I’d like to think I’ve made clear my thoughts to the GOP vs. GQP
If the GQP wins finally and claims what Bruce and Diana Rauner left of the brand “Republican”, that will ensure Democratic dominance in Illinois, that’s not really up for a discussion.
If the Raunerites decide organized labor, moderate social agenda positions, education and teachers aren’t the enemy, the GOP might again make the state not only a two party state but make it a statewide (not regional) party.
That doesn’t mean it’s an easy thing to do, stop the GQP, but in 2022 the party will be at such a crossroad that it won’t be the map that will make the GQP irrelevant for the next decade.
That’s what I’m fighting, and aligning with the likes of a very flawed Adam Kinzinger in his struggles… but if he loses, and the party implodes, there won’t need to be any discussion to viability.
The candidates, their campaigns, the winners and losers in the primary, it’s far bigger than…
… some ridiculous fundraising email above that it’s an embarrassment and illogical to winning here in Illinois.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, May 28, 21 @ 2:44 pm
Rodney? REALLY?..Thinkin’ he would be lucky to get past primary for any office.
Remember GOPies need Trump DOJ and Griffie’s million to get anything done. Will not have either in 2022.
Comment by Annonin' Friday, May 28, 21 @ 2:47 pm
=== Thinkin’ he would be lucky to get past primary for any office.===
So does Rodney, if he decides he can’t beat… Mary Miller… in a primary.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, May 28, 21 @ 2:49 pm