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Fun with numbers

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Illinois

* Illinois Policy Institute…

Illinois lawmakers on June 1 passed a $42.3 billion budget that leaders said was balanced and contained no tax hikes. They said those things, but that doesn’t make them true.

A closer examination shows at least a $482 million hole, which makes the 21st year in a row the state has failed to balance its budget. The budget also contains a $655 million tax hike. And it contains a nearly $1,200 raise for each lawmaker. […]

The fiscal forecasting arm of the General Assembly most recently estimated revenues for fiscal year 2022 would be $41.188 billion, while Pritzker’s office projected $41.055 billion. Combined with the $655 million in new revenue from tax increases, that would leave a deficit of between $482 million and $615 million.

It turns out, the budget negotiators used the greater of the two estimates from earlier this month in individual categories. COGFA had the larger personal income tax estimate, for instance, but GOMB had the larger corporate income tax estimate, etc. The negotiators then “fine-tuned estimates for other smaller sources based on up-to-date information (+55M) and federal sources based on final spending and cash flow assumptions (+$110M),” according to the governor’s office.

This supposedly balances the FY22 budget.

posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Jun 3, 21 @ 3:00 pm

Comments

If I have this straight:
Democratic leaders and a Democratic governor cherry-picked revenue projections — in effect resolving all ambiguities in their own favor — and declared their budget balanced. They assure us they are not lying.
As if:
Because my great-grandparents and grandparents died at ages ranging from 53 to 94, I can absolutely count on living to 94. It’s guaranteed.

Comment by Perplexed Thursday, Jun 3, 21 @ 3:14 pm
Listen. The most important legislation to pass this session was the trailer fee reduction from $118 to $38.

Comment by Jo Jo Monkeyboy Thursday, Jun 3, 21 @ 3:20 pm
Seriously—-The Illinois Budget has never been balanced regardless of who passed it, voted for it signed it. This must really be the slowest news day of the year.

Comment by H L Mencken Thursday, Jun 3, 21 @ 3:26 pm
=And it contains a nearly $1,200 raise for each lawmaker. […]=

That’s less than 2%. Am I supposed to get outraged over that?

Comment by Pundent Thursday, Jun 3, 21 @ 3:30 pm
When the IPI was at the helm of the state alongside failed governor Bruce Rauner we had NO budget. I’ll take a budget with some funny math over what IPI produced (NOTHING!).

Comment by Disappointed Voter Thursday, Jun 3, 21 @ 3:30 pm
===I can absolutely count on living to 94. It’s guaranteed. ===

Only if you’re a budgeteer.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Jun 3, 21 @ 3:35 pm
===we had NO budget===

IIRC, they came in after the budget was passed and were mostly gone before the next budget was introduced.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Jun 3, 21 @ 3:36 pm
Wasn’t the IPI hired when Rayner fired his staff right after the budget was passed when the legislature overrode the veto. The IPI was then dumped shortly after the school funding change bill was passed. During that bRief the IPI pretty much showed they had no idea on how a veto override works or other basic stuff about government that my kid learned in civics class this year.

Comment by DTown Resident Thursday, Jun 3, 21 @ 4:53 pm
Not too worry.

The State will sell the JRTC for more than expected.

The FOID fix will cost less than expected.

People with multiple trailers will magically register all their TA classification trailers this year.

All the people playing games on their UL income tax returns will be honest this FY.

And the magic beans Rauner planted in the mansion’s flower garden will germinate and bloom this year.

Comment by RNUG Thursday, Jun 3, 21 @ 4:56 pm
IPI is never happy, they’ll always find something to kvetch about. If a budget was truly balanced, IPI would bellyache that any unfunded pension liability really means “Deficit!”

Comment by Anyone Remember Thursday, Jun 3, 21 @ 5:13 pm
The revenue and spending numbers are best guess forecasts; making the two match and calling the result “balanced” is a useful fiction. In this case, IPI’s $615 million is 1.5% of the total budget. Rosy forecasts or not, getting within 2% seems pretty good.

Comment by Pot calling kettle Thursday, Jun 3, 21 @ 5:59 pm
Pot calling kettle,

It might be better than usual but it’s still unconstitutional. Does the constitution even matter if the only part if it they want to follow involves pensions?

Comment by Out of Illinois Thursday, Jun 3, 21 @ 8:50 pm
===it’s still unconstitutional===

Yeah, I’m sure you’ve read the constitution and can comprehend what it means.

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Jun 3, 21 @ 8:54 pm
The Constitution requires a balanced budget which they haven’t done in 20 plus years. Really Rich, what’s so hard to understand?

Comment by Out of Illinois Thursday, Jun 3, 21 @ 10:15 pm
===The Constitution requires ===

“Proposed expenditures shall not exceed funds estimated to be available for the fiscal year as shown in the budget.”

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Jun 3, 21 @ 10:30 pm
To Perplexed’s point, if you had grandparents who died at 53 and 94, then if you follow the budgeters logic, you get to ignore both of those numbers and pick something even higher, perhaps 105.

Here’s an idea… budget less than the revenue projection just in case it doesn’t hold true. And then if there’s any extra at the end of the year, pay down the debt. I know, that’s crazy talk, but that’s what most financially stable individuals and businesses do.

Comment by Occasional Quipper Friday, Jun 4, 21 @ 11:52 am
===I know, that’s crazy talk===

lol

Good one.

Comment by Rich Miller Friday, Jun 4, 21 @ 12:10 pm