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Delta is ready when you aren’t

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Illinois

* As we’ve all seen, viruses start small, but they can spread pretty darned fast. A reminder from the Wall Street Journal…

The Covid-19 virus infected people in five U.S. states in December 2019 and early 2020 before those states reported their first cases, according to a large new government study, providing new insights into the first, unseen weeks of the nation’s deadly epidemic.

Scientists analyzing blood samples taken for a National Institutes of Health research program identified seven people in states from Mississippi to Wisconsin to Pennsylvania who were infected with the new virus days or weeks before the first cases were confirmed in their areas. At least a couple had mild symptoms. […]

Two samples, one taken from a person from Illinois and another from a person from Massachusetts, date to Jan. 7 and 8, 2020, respectively, the researchers said. Antibodies found in the samples appear about two weeks after a person has been infected, the researchers said.

The number of Covid-19 cases found in the frozen, stored blood samples is small, suggesting the early cases in the U.S. were sporadic.

All told, the researchers found evidence of infection in just nine out of 24,079 participants whose blood samples were taken between Jan. 2, 2020, and March 18, 2020, for the NIH research program.

The study is here.

* The Delta variant was unheard of not long ago, but it’s now dominating the UK…

More than 90% of Covid cases in the UK are now down to the coronavirus Delta variant first discovered in India, data has revealed, as the total number of confirmed cases passed 42,000.

Also known as B.1.617.2, the Delta variant has been linked to a rise in Covid cases in the UK in the past weeks. It is believed to spread more easily than the Alpha variant, B.1.1.7, that was first detected in Kent, and is somewhat more resistant to Covid vaccines, particularly after just one dose. It may be also associated with a greater risk of hospitalisation.

* Keep in mind that 45 percent of the UK’s population is fully vaccinated, which is pretty much exactly the same as Illinois’ rate. Washington Post…

June 21 was supposed to mark England’s “freedom day,” when the country’s remaining coronavirus restrictions would end, but the government has opted to keep them in place at least through July 19 because of concern over rising cases and a fast-spreading variant.

Boris Johnson announced the delay late Monday. “I am confident we will not need more than four weeks and we will not go beyond July 19,” he said. “But now is the time to ease off the accelerator.”

* Marketwatch…

In the U.S., cases caused by the variant are roughly doubling every two weeks, according to former Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Scott Gottlieb and now account for at least 10% of new cases, he told CBS’ “Face the Nation” on Sunday.

* Last week…

The Delta variant of the coronavirus, which was first discovered in India and believed to be highly transmissible and more dangerous, is present in Illinois, state health officials told WTTW News.

More than 107 cases of the COVID-19 variant, also known as B.1.617.2, have been discovered in Illinois since the end of March, concentrated in the northeastern and central parts of the state, said Melany Arnold, a spokesperson for the Illinois Department of Public Health.

* Watch it goooooooo!…

2) We are expecting the #DeltaVariant to continue growing in the US, outpacing all other variants just like it has in India 🇮🇳 and UK 🇬🇧, and become dominant in US by end of July, if not earlier.

Here is the prediction track - via @TWenseleers from @GISAID data. pic.twitter.com/VRWL9abxZd

— Eric Feigl-Ding (@DrEricDing) June 8, 2021

* GISAID is a public/private partnership that promotes the rapid sharing of data. But the current GISAID data, which the IDPH has also relied on, is a bit high, according to the CDC. The CDC has changed how it classifies B.1.617.2 to a “variant of concern” from a “variant of interest” and is now sending its own data to states. The updated IDPH numbers will show 64 cases of the Delta variant in Illinois when its site is updated today.

Again, while still very small, we’ve seen how these things can spread enough times to know we have to keep an eye on things. And wide swaths of this state have horribly low vaccination rates, which means the potential for spread is quite real. Use common sense, and for crying out loud, get your shots.

* Related…

* If you want to avoid the ICU, get a COVID-19 shot, doctors say: “There are five people clinging to life in our ICU who did not get vaccinated,” said Dr. Jeff Huml, medical director of critical care at Northwestern Medicine Central DuPage Hospital in Winfield. “The pandemic is definitely not over. Vaccination is the only way that we’re going to close the door on this pandemic. What causes me grave concern is the number of individuals who consciously make the decision not to get vaccinated. What they have to realize is when they make that decision, they are potentially putting their life in jeopardy, the lives of their loved ones in jeopardy, and the lives of (others) they come into contact with in jeopardy.”

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Jun 15, 21 @ 11:53 am

Comments

If the cases were so sporadic early on, it’s just another example on why early action and quick action was SO SO necessary. If the government was able to ramp up and just hire an army of test and trace people, shut down our international borders, we honestly could have controlled this like Australia

Comment by Incandenza Tuesday, Jun 15, 21 @ 11:57 am
Happy to be double vaxed. Glad three of four in the my family are. Too bad the fourth is 11 and not 12.

This fall will be ugly in places again. Ugly where people refuse to get a shot and don’t take precautions.

Comment by Cool Papa Bell Tuesday, Jun 15, 21 @ 12:04 pm
It may have been more common in the US back in December 2019 than realized. Some friends that traveled to Hawaii and the Far East in November were sick for 6 weeks after returning home to Central Illinois with what was thought to just be a bad flu. With what we know now, it was likely covid. I fully believe covid was circulating in the US earlier than believed, and that Seattle may not have been the first case.

Comment by RNUG Tuesday, Jun 15, 21 @ 12:06 pm
set a date after which COVID medical costs will not be covered by insurance for the unvaccinated. *Exceptions for the rare cases where vaccination is not safe.) Maybe bankruptcy will scare people more than death.

Comment by Last Bull Moose Tuesday, Jun 15, 21 @ 12:06 pm
I think this is a bit misleading

“This is the so-called “Indian” variant #B16172 that is ravaging UK 🇬🇧 despite high vaccinations because it has immune evasion properties.”

Apparently this is true only for people who have had the first but not the second jab

Comment by Soccermom Tuesday, Jun 15, 21 @ 12:07 pm
“ we honestly could have controlled this like Australia”

The U.S. could have done much better, but lets he fair Australia has 1/13 the population and is an island. Its a lot easier to close an “international border” which only borders a vast ocean.

Comment by Moved East Tuesday, Jun 15, 21 @ 12:09 pm
When your friends and family, who refuse to get vaccinated, end up in the ICU this Fall, remember to tell them “I told you so”.

Comment by Moby Tuesday, Jun 15, 21 @ 12:18 pm
== There are five people clinging to life in our ICU who did not get vaccinated ==
I wonder what those five people, who presumably had refused to be vaccinated, are thinking now?

Comment by anon2 Tuesday, Jun 15, 21 @ 12:26 pm
== Australia has 1/13 the population and is an island ==

Don’t mean to be pedantic, but it’s time for a Geography & Geology refresher course. Australia is a continent, not an island. The difference is that it is the only nation that occupies an entire continent, thereby providing an oceanic barrier around the entire nation. That does make controlling the border a matter of controlling air & sea travel instead of both of those as well as land entries.

Comment by Lt Guv Tuesday, Jun 15, 21 @ 12:37 pm
full vaccinated and yet I’m still wearing a mask in lots of situations as the Delta variant frightens. disposable mask prices have dropped so I’m stocking up. nice news that the Novavax is getting closer to approval and that it may be effective against all known variants. vax up, mask up.

Comment by Amalia Tuesday, Jun 15, 21 @ 12:40 pm
== but lets he fair Australia has 1/13 the population and is an island ==

I’ll give you the island bit, but still. If we actually had a centralized health system that could ramp up test and trace in a couple weeks, the hard lock-down would have given us time to isolate the infected. We could have been having the summer we have now last summer, with probably minus 500,000 deaths.

Instead we heard excuses about how hard it is to train or procure or contract to get people on the phones tracing. Honestly, that’s where neoliberalism has got us: paralyzed in the face of massive catastrophe fiddling around with the idea that “oh well its just so difficult to contract with 3rd party groups”. Just ramp up federal spending and hiring and solve the problem

Comment by Incandenza Tuesday, Jun 15, 21 @ 12:42 pm
Those un-vaccinated were probably more worried about side effects than getting a covid variant. Many people don’t really get variants.

Comment by Publius Tuesday, Jun 15, 21 @ 12:45 pm
RNUG, my boss believes he got it in Hong Kong in November 2019. It was diagnosed as pneumonia here in the US when he went to the doctor when it was obvious that it wasn’t just a regular chest cold. The claim that it was covid can’t be proven now, since the antibodies don’t last, but he also has some post-covid symptoms that would not result form regular pneumonia or other familiar illnesses. It would not surprise me if there were others, as you said.

Comment by Jabes Tuesday, Jun 15, 21 @ 12:49 pm
===vax up, mask up===

Totally agree, Amalia. And not just because of the Delta variant–but because there are breakthrough cases that aren’t Delta. Rare, I know, but we just lost a family friend who was fully vaccinated to COVID (no reason to believe it was Delta). I’m going out more now, but still masking in most situations.

Comment by Leslie K Tuesday, Jun 15, 21 @ 1:13 pm
The claim that it was covid can’t be proven now, since the antibodies don’t last

a new study in the journal Nature suggests that immunity may be long lasting

“Long-lived bone marrow plasma cells (BMPCs) are a persistent and essential source of protective antibodies1–7. Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) convalescent individuals have a significantly lower risk of reinfection8–1″

Comment by Donnie Elgin Tuesday, Jun 15, 21 @ 1:21 pm
Leslie K, sorry for the lost of your friend, very frightening. peace and health.

Comment by Amalia Tuesday, Jun 15, 21 @ 1:23 pm
We’re not done with COVID. We may not see the massive spikes as before, people will continue to get sick die. That will continue so long as we have one party which has so politicized the response and vilified public health that simple solutions are rejected by a large segment of our population. That party has adopted measures the will only serve to hamper efforts to better control the virus. Missouri joins that list today.

Comment by Norseman Tuesday, Jun 15, 21 @ 1:30 pm
A new study (not peer reviewed yet) by the same group who did an earlier study shows that the Pfizer and AstraZeneca vaccines are extremely effective in preventing hospitalizations caused by the Delta variant, even after only one shot. The previous study showed one shot was much less effective. We should not take chances with just one shot, but get fully vaccinated. Full vaccination is our best hope.

Lost respect for athletes and other prominent figures who won’t get vaccinated without a darned good reason. It sends a dangerous message.

Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, Jun 15, 21 @ 1:34 pm
== “ we honestly could have controlled this like Australia” ==

I’ve been reading the Australian news for the past year since I have friends there. They’ve done huge lockdowns which would probably have been ruled unconstitutional here, and while they had a fair amount of success controlling the spread, it wasn’t quite utopia. They had their share of problems and missteps also.

Comment by RNUG Tuesday, Jun 15, 21 @ 1:47 pm
When your friends and family, who refuse to get vaccinated, end up in the ICU this Fall, remember to tell them “I told you so”.

My niece and nephew are unvaccinated — but they’re also seven and three-years old, so I won’t be rubbing it in should they become deathly ill.

– MrJM

Comment by @misterjayem Tuesday, Jun 15, 21 @ 1:51 pm
Am not putting the N95 mask away any time soon, as it will likely be needed this fall in crowded indoor areas. Thankfully, we have a State leadership that follows science instead of ideological superstition.

Comment by Ares Tuesday, Jun 15, 21 @ 2:11 pm
It will be interesting to follow any economic/social impact this fall… If this rekindles in places - but vaccines are widely available - then what would the Pritzker Administration do?

Can’t imagine that vaccinated folks will be willing to “lock down” again. Unvaccinated folks don’t seem to care. So how would government proceed? I’m GUESSING that shots will be ready for around 6+ in September so that clears the way for schools to be fully open.

But when the wave comes - and perhaps only in places where vaccine rates are in the 30/40% range what should the public health response be?

Comment by Cool Papa Bell Tuesday, Jun 15, 21 @ 2:31 pm
- They had their share of problems and missteps also. -

Give me a break, they have double the population of Illinois and had less than 1/20th the deaths. Our national response to this pandemic was an absolute joke compared to theirs.

Comment by Excitable Boy Tuesday, Jun 15, 21 @ 2:31 pm
=== My niece and nephew are unvaccinated — but they’re also seven and three-years old, so I won’t be rubbing it in should they become deathly ill. ===

3-7 year children wouldn’t qualify as “friends and family who refuse to get vaccinated”, obviously, so I find your response disingenuous.

Comment by Moby Tuesday, Jun 15, 21 @ 3:15 pm
==so I won’t be rubbing it in should they become deathly ill.==

I’m very concerned for all unvaccinated children and hope all of school age will be able to get the vaccine before school starts. What disturbs me is children currently qualified to get the shots are not because their parents refuse to allow them access.

People are acting like this pandemic is over far too soon. I will continue to mask up and socially distance until I’m reassured herd immunity is working.

Comment by Wensicia Tuesday, Jun 15, 21 @ 4:29 pm
Donnie Elgin, that’s encouraging news that even if the antibodies don’t seem to be able to be seen in blood tests (I’m assuming that regular blood tests don’t test bone marrow cells — not a medico, but guessing that’s a more invasive test), the immunity is still there. Quite a relief. Thanks!

Comment by Jabes Tuesday, Jun 15, 21 @ 4:53 pm
Each transmission offers an opportunity for mutation.
We’ve been lucky so far - the mutations haven’t yet evaded the vaccines.
But how long will our luck hold out?
People need to get vaccinated before we all end up back at square one.

Comment by TinyDancer(FKASue) Tuesday, Jun 15, 21 @ 6:30 pm
== What disturbs me is children currently qualified to get the shots are not because their parents refuse to allow them access. ==

Can’t speak to classroom requirements, but my 12 yo grandson has to have it before fall to play basketball.

Comment by RNUG Tuesday, Jun 15, 21 @ 6:55 pm