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Afternoon news roundup

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Illinois
Polls
Obama

* Daily Kos has the latest polling in Super Tuesday states for Democrats. Obama appears to be gaining almost everywhere. But Lynn Sweet has a memo from Obama campaign manager David Plouffe which attempts to lower expectations.

* Taegan Goddard wraps up the Republican polls.

* Josh Marshall looks at polling in early voting states. Mark Blumenthal issues his 4 cautions on Super Tuesday polling. Trendlines, etc. can be found here.

* Larry takes Illinois NOW to task for not telling the truth about those “Present” votes here and here. A bit of bad language, so beware.

* This is an interesting look, if self-promotional, about SMS advertising, the latest trend in political campaigning…

Limbo today releases a report showing how voters’ attitudes and behaviors are influenced through mobile advertising. In January 2008, Limbo ran SMS advertising campaigns for leading Democratic presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, delivering over one million SMS impressions across the two campaigns. The results suggest that SMS advertising provides a powerful tool for candidates to change consumer attitudes and voting behavior.

* I can’t find it online yet, but Greg Hinz at Crain’s takes a look ahead in case Obama wins or is named to the ticket and wins as VP…

African-Americans are this governor’s most loyal, solid base. U.S. Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr., D-Chicago, probably is the best-positioned black official to fill a Senate vacancy, and he’s been campaigning around the country for Barack. But Mr. Jackson and Illinois Senate Majority Leader Emil Jones Jr. are not best buds, and right now the guv really needs Emil.

U.S. Rep. Schakowsky, from Evanston, has maintained good relations with this governor and, like him, is a liberal populist. “If Barack were president,” she allows, “I’d be very interested in that Senate seat.” Moving her across the rotunda would make U.S. Rep. Rahm Emanuel the unquestioned big cheese in the city’s House delegation.

Three statewide Democrats also likely would be considered: Attorney General Lisa Madigan, Comptroller Dan Hynes and Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias. But the first ain’t gonna happen, given Mr. Blagojevich’s war with her father, House Speaker Michael Madigan. Mr. Hynes isn’t much more popular with Rod’s team. Mr. Giannoulias is awfully young at age 31, but he’s campaigning really hard for something lately and is an Obama protégé (and basketball buddy).

The selection also could be someone from left field, like Downstate Blagojevich loyalist Jay Hoffman, the guv’s man in the state House.

Or how about way, way, way left field: Rod Blagojevich. You laugh, but no law would prevent him from appointing himself. Mr. Seniors-ride-free has pulled wackier stunts.

* On to government news…

In ominous news for taxpayers, the fiscal difficulty continues to worsen at pension funds that cover Chicago and other government workers in the metropolitan area.

The area’s 10 big government pension funds now face $18.7 billion in unfunded liabilities, according to a report released Monday morning by the Civic Federation, a watchdog group. The deficit is more than five times the figure of just a decade ago, and about six times the size of the city’s annual operating budget.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 3:24 pm

Comments

One more… The State GOP has jumped in on the Dan Seals resume-padding allegations in the 10th Congressional District race. The press release is at

http://www.weareillinois.org/con
nect/newsDetail.aspx?newsID=3089

Comment by Team America, World Police Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 3:46 pm
Remember Mayor Daley supporting Carol Mosely Braun for the Senate, to get her focused on a role other than Mayor? Blago would be delighted to get Lisa Madigan Washington bound. But as a recent mother of her second child, she doesn’t need or want the travel.

George Will said on Sunday morning that if Obama is not the party’s nominee for president, he would rather run for Governor of Illinois than be Vice-President. (I disagree - no one in their right mind would want to take on the role of governor until the state revenue base is solidified.)

I’m for Blago appointing himself, with his legislative rather than executive branch short term focus on issues. The US Senate is perfect for pontificating on issues, and then moving on to the next issue rather than worry about details of public policy implementation.

Article I, Section 3 of the US Constitution states that the Executive of each state shall appoint a temporary replacement for any Senator vacating that office until the State Legislature next meets and formally fills the vacancy. I cannot imagine legislative leaders not wanting to send our current governor off to Washington. And if the guv vacates his office for this self-appointment and the General Assembly does not approve it, he is lost in limbo - not Senator any more, but not governor either, due to his resignation to take the temporary Senate position!

Comment by capitol view Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 4:13 pm
I know Gianoulias would be a long shot in the first place, but with all of the great stuff that he’s done, wouldn’t we want to keep him local? Send Madigan to DC and leave Gianoulis with us! Then we can elect him governor!!

Then again, I’m just a student…

Comment by Just a student... Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 4:35 pm
Don’t count Iris Martinez out just yet…She has a strong record, and people in the district know how hard she works…Bradley is invisible…

Comment by just a voter in the 20th district Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 4:41 pm
The Governor isn’t appointing himself — he doesn’t want to have to run for reelection in 2010 as a Senator limited by federal fundraising rules.

With that out of the wya, he’s going to make this decision based on gaining an electoral advantage for 2010 gubernatorial — either by making a specific group happy with him, or by eliminating an opponent.

Jesse Jr. may be well positioned, but I can’t see under what circumstances him and Rod end up trusting each other. Giannoulias is the most logical choice because (a) he is Obama’s protege, and it may go a long way to making the President elect happy; (b) as laid out in the Russ Stewart article posted on this blog back in December, Rod is probably most comfortable running against Lisa, and would like to get Giannoulias out of the way; (c) assuming Rod gets through the 2010 primary, it may make things easier for him in the general because the Republicans may have to choose where to put most of their resources — against an incumbent Governor or a 33 year old appointed Senator.

Senator Giannoulias it is. . .

Comment by Odyssey 2010 Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 5:03 pm
Giannoulias would be a good replacement for Obama. Let’s hope Blagojevich has to make that choice.

Comment by rinskee Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 5:05 pm
Lowering expectations is smart, considering the New Hampshire polls. Still, Obama seems to be really picking up steam. To me, the big number will be the level of participation and breakdown of White Males in the Dem states.

Comment by wordslinger Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 5:06 pm
Hey may be picking up steam, but the expectation levels among his supporters are starting to look like the run-up to New Hampshire.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 5:07 pm
As the Obama campaign has proven, vision and leadership are more important than age and experience.

I too think Alexi Giannoulias would make a fantastic Senator.

Comment by Maverick Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 5:17 pm
If giving Blagojevich a couple years in the U.S. Senate is the price for replacing him as governor, I think there is a base of people willing to pay that price.

Among other things, it probably creates more upward mobility for the young talent. A couple of them will go for U.S. Senate. A couple of them will go for Governor. And that will create openings for other constitutional officers.

Comment by Carl Nyberg Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 5:25 pm
If the Blaggodiot named himself he could have the distinction of being a convicted U.S. Sen….and he would not need to share a distinction with other governors. First in the Nation!

Comment by IncrediblyDumberThanYouThink Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 5:52 pm
I think we need to look at the Florida results before looking at polls for tomorrow’s states. I believe Clinton did very well in the early early-voting while Obama did better closer to and on e-day. Cali and several other states have been voting for a while and I think we can all remember what those numbers were like even a week ago.
I think a close split with Clinton in Cali is a win for Obama.
As a friend once said: people do weird things standing in front of a ballot.

Comment by Anonish Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 6:01 pm
Hynes has no personality and is a Madigan puppet. Lisa also makes no sense and the state doesn’t need to give that family any more power. Alexi, like Obma, was snubbed by the Madigans and gets along with the Gov. He makes sense.

Comment by Judy Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 8:03 pm
Rich,
Did you know that Maryianne Spyropolous is cousins with Alexi Giannulias?

Comment by Mav Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 8:04 pm
Is Alexi trying to branch off with a dynasty and proof that money can outcompete the machine

Comment by Mav Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 8:05 pm
I don’t know if Alexi would be ready for something like a Senate seat. He’s proven to be a good treasurer so far, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves. Plus, Blago would never do it and Obama would never allow it - wouldn’t it look fishy if Obama was replaced by his very young, barely experienced, political protege? I agree with Student - let’s keep him around awhile.

Hynes would be a terrible choice. Lisa would be good. But I say Blago appoints himself and then we can have a real governor primary without him involved.

Comment by Lee Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 8:09 pm
I’d rather have Alexi run for Governor in 2010 — we need as much change in this state as we do in Washington D.C., and he has demonstrated great poise and creative thinking as an executive so far. . .

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 8:53 pm
US Senate appointees rarely get re-elected. It is not a quick path to the job. Better to give the open slot to someone like Jesse White (as a retirement gift). That lets Blago appoint someone to replace him — and that probably does ensure re-election.

Comment by RBD Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 8:57 pm
Kudos to Arch Pundit for taking NOW to task. If they want to back Hillary just because she is a woman (and that is their right) then they should say so but enough with the baloney. Barack’s record is the same as Lisa Madigan’s!

I think Greg Hinz is giving Schackowsky too much credit, Emanuel is already the big cheese in the IL House delegation whether she knows it or not.

As much as I’d like to get rid of Blago any way possible, I don’t think he’s going to appoint himself to Barack’s seat. He hated DC and he doesn’t want to be there. Besides he would be too easy of a target for the national GOP, they would spend big money to pick him off and they would win. It is easier for him to stay here because the IL GOP is weak. I go with option C - if Blago gets to make the appointment he goes with a lesser known but very reliable friend of his like Jay Hoffman or Carol Ronen.

- beavis “huh huh, I said Get Rid of Blago”

Comment by beavis Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 9:06 pm
“Moving her across the rotunda would make U.S. Rep. Rahm Emanuel the unquestioned big cheese in the city’s House delegation.”

Not to rip Schakowsky (who I like and respect), but get real.
Does anybody believe that she has anything near the influence of Rahm?
Let’s ponder this for a moment.
One of the two delivered the House Dems a 30 seat swing in 2006.
The other is a reliable progressive who says “um” a lot.
Is there really a question as to which has more influence?

Comment by Skeeter Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 9:10 pm
If Blago decides to remove the most Obama-esque potential competitor (Giannoulias), does he get to appoint the vacant Treasurer seat?

This would be an interesting opportunity for him to both remove an obstacle and then perhaps appoint one of his African-American allies to a statewide seat.

Comment by ? ? ? Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 9:27 pm
Skeeter, I thought the same thing about Schakowsky. She seems to have a lot of power just because she’s a north shore liberal, right? All the richies live in her district so other electeds make the trip to her doorstep in hopes of making some connections.

Mav, I’m Italian and I think the Greeks are just like us. We’re cousins with everybody. I’m pretty much related to every Italian in the city - through blood or marriage, implicitly or explicitly - we’re all family. I haven’t seen Alexi do anything for Spyropoulos which means they must not be very close cousins.

I’m so excited for Super Duper Tuesday! GO BARACK!!!

Comment by Just a student... Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 9:33 pm
Jan has no credibility.
Rahm is a real player and powerhous.

Comment by Mav Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 9:33 pm
Also, if for some reason Blago does end up appointing Alexi, or whomever, to the seat, can they decline it?

Comment by Just a student... Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 9:35 pm
Yes, they can decline–thus appointing Dan or Lisa isn’t as effective as some make it out to be. Not to mention it gives the other one a clear shot.

And as Rich said, talking up Obama does no good. Just work.

Comment by archpundit Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 9:45 pm
In regards to the pension fund, it’s time to cut programs folks! Enough is enough, no more tax or fee increases. Start managing the taxpayer’s money appropriately!

Comment by California Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 9:52 pm
California, be specific, please. What part of the pension fund “program” would you cut? Or, are you saying cut City/County programs and reduce headcount so that fewer people are getting those fat pensions?

If you read the report, which is a challenge, you would note that the City’s share of total revenue for all the Funds is increasing in dollar terms but not in percentage terms. Investment returns are still the primary source of funding for the Chicago funds, just like they are for their State brethren.
The Chicken Little tone of the report is not helped by the use of year-old data upon which all the report’s conclusions are derived. Using 6/30/07 data and waiting briefly for 12/31/07 data for the remaining funds would have shown a substantially stronger overall result, as another strong year of investments would be put on the books and a negative year, FY2002, would have rolled off the 5-year smoothed actuarial results.
Old data, twisted to support predetermined conclusions is sadly what we’ve come to expect from Civic Federation reports since Larry Msall, George Ryan crony, went to work there. The Federation has done better work in the past and can do better workk than this contrived claptrap.

Comment by Arthur Andersen Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 11:26 pm
RBD makes sense. The Governor appoints Jesse White to fill out the Obama term and Jay Hoffman to Secretary of State. A two-fer.

Comment by Punley Dieter Finn Monday, Feb 4, 08 @ 11:37 pm