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* US News & World Report…
Below, we’ll provide a look at the remaining 24 states, which we consider “not currently vulnerable.” Obviously, we are still early in the election cycle, so states could shift higher or lower in our vulnerability ratings as time goes on. […]
We have been handicapping the gubernatorial races every cycle since 2006. Our analysis is based on reporting with dozens of political observers in the states as well as a look at historical, demographic, and polling data. We’ve included the gubernatorial races below in alphabetical order. […]
Illinois: Gov. J.B. Pritzker (D)
Pritzker, a deep-pocketed heir to the Hyatt hotel fortune, has had what observers consider a generally successful term in this increasingly blue state. He received good marks for his handling of the pandemic and has enacted budgets that have kept the state’s fiscal situation more stable than it has been in recent years. He’s also kept his progressive flank happy by enacting a minimum wage hike to $15; a law that would continue allowing abortion if the U.S. Supreme Court were to overturn Roe v. Wade; a law to strengthen guardianship protections for immigrant children; and a marijuana legalization measure. This means that Pritzker has little to worry about from a primary, especially since any challenger would need to raise a ton of money to compete against him.
Meanwhile, a few Republicans have announced or expressed interest in the race, but they are largely aligned with Trump and back socially conservative policies, both of which amount to non-starters in Illinois these days. Any center-right Republican hoping to make it a race against Pritzker would not only need to self-fund and win a Trump-era GOP primary but would also face the daunting prospect, if elected, of working with a Democratic supermajority in the legislature. All in all, Pritzker should be able to secure a second term if he wants it.
I don’t agree that a Republican nominee will have to self-fund if Ken Griffin jumps in all the way. I suppose we’ll see.
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Jul 13, 21 @ 3:44 am
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Darren Bailey is already on the radio air in Chicago with just an offensive, misleading, unsubstantiated commercial and honestly, I’m just not ready for this yet, you know?
Comment by Concerned Observer Tuesday, Jul 13, 21 @ 6:52 am
If Grif has money to waste, I’m sure he can find a grifter to take it. We’re getting more money out of him that the fair-tax would have. Thanks Ken.
Comment by PublicServant Tuesday, Jul 13, 21 @ 7:10 am
Does this mean that no “moderate” Republican will throw their hat in the ring? Been hearing news that Rodney Davis will be likely running for governor….
Comment by Voter2022 Tuesday, Jul 13, 21 @ 9:04 am
===Rodney Davis===
Rodney Davis is not a moderate, no matter how ridiculous folks want to pretend Davis is.
The reality is Davis is afraid of Mary Miller, losing to Mary Miller and is “office shopping” as where he can win, knowing that even voting against impeachment of Trump twice, sharing a stage with Trump, voting Trump in congress, he’s no Mary Miller.
If Griffin wants to back Davis, that makes “sense”, but a pro-life, Trumpkin who isn’t afraid of the “Kung Flu” and refused to denounce Marjorie Taylor Greene’s visit just days ago… Pritzker won’t mind Davis as a nominee. Nope.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Jul 13, 21 @ 9:12 am
I beleive that was an accurate summation of things in Illinois. Even if Pritzker wasnt a self funder he still would be in the drivers seat.
Comment by Regular democrat Tuesday, Jul 13, 21 @ 9:26 am
So, ousting Schneider for Tracy basically changes nothing for the ILGOP’s future?
Huffing and puffing, stomping of feet, rearranging deck chairs, the ILGOP.
Comment by Flyin' Elvis'-Utah Chapter Tuesday, Jul 13, 21 @ 9:34 am
“If Griffin wants to back Davis, that makes “sense”, but a pro-life, Trumpkin who isn’t afraid of the “Kung Flu” and refused to denounce Marjorie Taylor Greene’s visit just days ago… Pritzker won’t mind Davis as a nominee. Nope.”
Yep.
Comment by Southern Skeptic Tuesday, Jul 13, 21 @ 9:34 am
This sounds right. One thing that could upset the apple cart (get it?) would be an MJM indictment. If that doesn’t happen, the lack of “Because… Madigan” messaging also bodes well for JB.
Comment by Graybeard Tuesday, Jul 13, 21 @ 9:46 am
JB will be under no credible election threat; ILGOP is clueless and lost deep in the wilderness. Repub moderates are in short supply, and ILGOP hardliners are highly unlikely to vote for a moderate after trying the censure and expulsion of the few mods is highly unlikely. JB has his warts, but he’s in the driver’s seat for as long as he wants to be Gov.
Comment by thisjustinagain Tuesday, Jul 13, 21 @ 9:54 am
Gee whiz Rich, just last month a lot of people were saying Pritzker might not run again.
Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Jul 13, 21 @ 9:55 am
Way to early yet to say JB isn’t vulnerable. His tax agenda failed big time because of Griffin’s money and Mike Z’s excellent work. Davis to me isn’t a threat but if Griffin’s money and Z running the show don’t count out Dillard. JMO
Comment by Hard D Tuesday, Jul 13, 21 @ 10:09 am
=== Dillard===
“Who?”
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Jul 13, 21 @ 10:12 am
This will make some people feel unlucky, but it’s consistent with all the evidence we have right now. JB is an above-water Democrat in a state that, all else being equal, prefers Democrats. He’s got a story of success to tell, and all the resources he needs to get it out there.
Comment by Arsenal Tuesday, Jul 13, 21 @ 10:14 am
Dillard is a moderate Republican. I just don’t see the ILGOP lurching back to the political center.
Comment by The Dude Abides Tuesday, Jul 13, 21 @ 10:15 am
===His tax agenda failed big time because of Griffin’s money and Mike Z’s excellent work.====
Different animal.
The Fair Tax Flop loss was also due to waiting *so long* to fully engage, and Griffin and company were “even” in spending.
Gotta figure… Griffin wanna spend $250 million (a quarter of a billion) on someone who has Trump bonafides, pro-life, and won’t reject the likes of Marjorie Taylor Greene in Illinois?
A referendum doesn’t have much to defend in a record, personal beliefs, or vision and/or agenda.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Jul 13, 21 @ 10:16 am
==Way too early==
The one thing we can agree on. The ILGOP, post-Rauner, stands for nothing. The dark money “burn it all down” approach worked (sadly) in opposing the graduated income tax amendment and Justice Kilbride. How on earth will it get people to vote *for* someone?
Comment by Not a Superstar Tuesday, Jul 13, 21 @ 10:19 am
Rodney Davis is not a moderate, no matter how ridiculous folks want to pretend Davis is.
Out of 435 members Davis is ranked 14 most bipartisan member
https://www.thelugarcenter.org/ourwork-Bipartisan-Index.html?eType=EmailBlastContent&eId=20abfc4c-e01c-49d2-8a26-5d420d4918fb
Comment by Lucky Pierre Tuesday, Jul 13, 21 @ 10:25 am
More on Davis this morning.
https://omny.fm/shows/byers-co-interviews/us-congressman-rodney-davis-july-13-2021
Comment by Voter2022 Tuesday, Jul 13, 21 @ 10:28 am
How about national GOP Committeeman Richard Porter? He’s remained quiet, but I think he has the skill set to make a legitimate run (and also bring needed funding to the table). Also Chicago suburbs based which is an asset. Hopefully he’ll take the plunge as he’s got the knowledge to run an issues-based campaign.
Comment by Middle Way Tuesday, Jul 13, 21 @ 10:30 am
Dillard had an endorsement from AFSCME in the primary, Griffin is more likely to write a check to Keith Gill (aka Roaring Kitty) just for the privilege of testifying before congress together.
Comment by AC Tuesday, Jul 13, 21 @ 10:33 am
Rodney Davis’ rehabilitation as he shops for an office he can win could face a man who has already proven he’ll spend $300,000 a day, every day, for 430 days… who is currently above water by 10+ points, and will paint Davis as someone who doesn’t mind racial descriptions of a virus infecting the globe, and someone unwilling to impeach a sitting president after he incited an insurrection, on the *exact* day the electoral college vote was to be certified.
If Davis thought he could beat Mary Miller, after just winning a celebrated victory for his seat a mere 16+ months ago… Davis would say he’s run for Congress again. Office shopping is hard.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Jul 13, 21 @ 10:35 am
“don’t count out Dillard”
No problem, since I didn’t count him in.
Comment by Flyin' Elvis'-Utah Chapter Tuesday, Jul 13, 21 @ 10:38 am
=== bipartisan===
Bipartisan isn’t moderate.
Are you saying conservatives can’t be bipartisan. News to many.
Also, the Lugar Institute? That’s the best ya got for a man who refused to vote to impeach a president who incited an insurrection? Kinzinger showed bipartisanship with his vote. Davis, not so much.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Jul 13, 21 @ 10:43 am
“14 most bipartisan member” Twice nothin’ is still nothin’.
Comment by Skeptic Tuesday, Jul 13, 21 @ 11:02 am
Outside of a scandal or something happening at the Federal Level with Biden or Congress to cause headwinds, I agree that he’s fairly safe. No GOP candidate seems like a credible threat at this time.
Comment by AD Tuesday, Jul 13, 21 @ 11:03 am
Griffin has money because he is smart. He is not going to jump in unless the GOP has the right candidate and right now they don’t. I still like Kinzinger but not sure he can get out of a primary. Griffin and Z may have won the tax issue but I wouldn’t read too much into that. Team JB did a terrible job selling that proposal.
Comment by Howard Tuesday, Jul 13, 21 @ 1:01 pm
Dear Owl, Were you born with an ability to read people’s feelings, did you take a class or are you just projecting your fear of Congresswoman Miller onto Davis to falsely project him as some sort of wimp for seeking hirer office? Seeking hirer Statewide office is a serious undertaking. Communicating within a large congressional district successfully he has gained experience and knowledge. Preposterous your claim he is afraid of freshman congresswoman Miller. Pritzker’s administration has clay feet and is not as popular as you would expect for the money he has spent.
Comment by Al Tuesday, Jul 13, 21 @ 2:52 pm
=== Dear Owl===
I’ll pass this on to Sandack
Thanks
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Jul 13, 21 @ 2:54 pm
If Rodney weren’t afraid of Miller, he’d run against her if need be.
Shopping for a safe elected office… that’s Rodney’s deal now.
Davis feels he can’t beat Miller. Otherwise…
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Jul 13, 21 @ 2:55 pm
Dear Owl, “If Rodney weren’t afraid of Miller, he’d…”.
Are you a registered lobbyist for JB? No One is buying your barstool line that seeking higher office by Veteran Congressman Davis is about fear. Springfield is much closer to Taylorville than Washington DC. He has been a Congressman for a decade and has learned a lot.
Owl sounds like he had plumbers break into Congressman Davis’s Psychiatrists office and is reading out of his shrinks workup of his ego. But no, just uninformed pejorative tavern rattle.
Comment by Al Tuesday, Jul 13, 21 @ 4:07 pm
“But no, just uninformed pejorative tavern rattle.”- Al -
But…it sure seems to have rattled you… into believing you speak for everyone.
Comment by Dotnonymous Tuesday, Jul 13, 21 @ 4:16 pm
=== Dear Owl===
Now who exactly is projecting, lol
=== No One is buying your barstool line that seeking higher office by Veteran Congressman Davis is about fear. Springfield is much closer to Taylorville than Washington DC. He has been a Congressman for a decade and has learned a lot.===
LOL… Davis spent so much time… and so much energy to win this last time… he now is afraid of Miller… who is more Trumpy, more angry, and more in tune, seemingly, with Trunpkins.
If Davis felt he need not worry, he’d run against Miller.
Running statewide? C’mon, Davis is so Trumpy to that, Davis refused to impeach Trump for inciting an insurrection.
Davis is office shopping, too scared to go after Miller, too concerned that running statewide he’ll get pummeled, be it the primary or the general election.
Davis doesn’t stand for anything but trying to find an elected office he can win, not a concern of “location of a job”… otherwise he’d already be running hard as an announce gubernatorial candidate.
=== sounds like he had plumbers break into Congressman Davis’s Psychiatrists office and is reading out of his shrinks workup of his ego. But no, just uninformed pejorative tavern rattle.===
Friend, just because Cannabis is legal now in Illinois, it doesn’t mean you need to prove you partake in it at very high doses.
I mean, good for you, but… eat your Cheetos, come down a bit, and read what your typing before you hit “say it”
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Jul 13, 21 @ 4:17 pm
Al, maybe you forgot about this:
“His decision on what he would run for is kind of, dependent on redistricting and the timetable for that,” said Davis spokesman Aaron DeGroot. “So, I guess it’s just kind of a wait and see at this point.”
https://capitolfax.com/2021/06/24/rodney-davis-spokesperson-says-decision-on-bid-for-governor-dependent-on-redistricting/
Comment by MyTwoCents Tuesday, Jul 13, 21 @ 5:36 pm
(Tips cap for the assist to - MyTwoCents -)
Office shopping is a thing.
You don’t run for governor if Davis need not worry about Mary Miller.
Waiting and seeing is about that fear.
To this post about Pritzker, specifically…
The GOP needs a nominee that can make hay on points against Pritzker, keep Trumpkins engaged but passive as the reach towards the middle is embraced AND moving away from Trump is not punished… with over 9-figures behind the candidate, not easily defined as “dangerous”.
I mean… that’s a tall order.
SoS and Treasurer are lower hanging fruit. Just saying… and the patronage at SoS…
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Jul 13, 21 @ 5:44 pm