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Predictions open thread * Updated x1 *

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Try to keep your Super Tuesday predictions as Illinois-centric as possible. Thanks.

*** UPDATE 1 *** This story might help with your predictions…

llinois board of elections officials were more willing to talk today about the weather than the voting, saying it’s too soon to get a strong bead on statewide turnout. But press them, and they say there’s little chance a light rain, mid-30s temps, and a possible freeze toward evening will keep the state from breaking a 15-year turnout record today. […]

The [Cook County early voting] numbers featured a spike in young voter ballots and college absentee votes, said County Clerk David Orr. […]

Turnout in Sangamon County, home of the capital city of Springfield, was also far exceeding turnout in previous years, election officials there said.

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 12:39 pm

Comments

My prediction:

In the year 2025, Illinois’ corn harvest will start a boom with the invention of Super corn - regular corn that is at least 10 times bigger.

Comment by GoBearsss Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 12:44 pm
- GoBearsss -
You are not too far off - the UofI is trying to develop a strain of corn that is perennial instead of annual. Huge savings in costs for planting etc. would result.

Comment by A Citizen Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 12:50 pm
Prediction of SA Race:

Brookins–30%
Suffredin–27%
Allen—18%
Alvarez–14%
Milan–8%
Brewer–3%

Comment by Wilmette Willie Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 12:53 pm
Obama
Turner
Collins
Rita
Washington
M. Davis
Golar
W. Burns
Hendon
Riley
Froehlich
Schmitz
Delgado
Bradley
Mayer
Hahn

Comment by Lake Tom Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 12:54 pm
Starting a few years before 2025 (even though I like corn) here are predictions for today.
Obama 57%

Brookins 29%
Allen 24%
Suffeirden 24%
Alvarez 14%
Milan 8%
Brewer 1%

Lipinski 42%
Bennett 27%
Pera 22%
Capparelli 12%

Will Burns 33%
Johnson 29%
Jackson 23%
Chadda 15%

Comment by Been There Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 12:54 pm
Hillary squashed! Makes my year! Well…nearly makes my year. A Blagojevich indictment would make my year.

Comment by Justice Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 1:01 pm
I’ll be dead tired and hopefully incoherently drunk by midnight.

Comment by Bill Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 1:17 pm
How do we tell the drunkenly incoherent Bill from the usual Bill?

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 1:18 pm
You looked really clean cut last night. I almost didn’t recognize you.

Comment by Bill Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 1:21 pm
Deratany 54%
Berrios 46%

Comment by We can only hope Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 1:24 pm
CCSA

1. Allen
2. Alvarez
3. Suffredin

IL-10
Seals beats Footlik better than 2:1

IL-14
Foster wins but only gets about 55%

CC Recorder of Deeds
Smith gets between 55-60%

Comment by Carl Nyberg Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 1:24 pm
A few of my predictions:
Obama - 62%

Durbin - 99%

Andy Martin - 45%
Sauerberg - 37%
Psak - 18%

House Incumbents races…
The only notable primary involving a House incumbent is Lipinski.
Unfortunately…
Lip…39%
Pera 30%
Bennett 29%
Caparelli 2%

IL-6
Morgenthaler wins Dem primary

IL-10
Seals wins 65-35 over Footlik

IL-11
Balderman wins with 52% of the vote.
Halvorson wins with 99% of the vote (Mickey Mouse and Big Bird get the rest).

IL-14
Oberweiss wins 50.05% to 49.05%, remainder going to Mickey Mouse and Daffy Duck (wait…Donald Duck, oberweiss is Daffy)

Foster wins 47%
Stein 28%
Laesch 25%

IL-18
Aaron Strangelove takes 60% of the vote.

In other races…
Suffredin, Spyropoulos, and Deratany all win. Gene Moore holds on.

Annazette Collins loses to Eddie Winters. From where I live, I’m not sure Collins realized she had a primary opponent. Winters sent out about a million mail pieces.

Comment by jerry 101 Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 1:26 pm
I got a haircut just for you, Bill. I wasn’t pleased at all with how that appearance went, though. I have too much in my head right now to speak coherently on TV.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 1:28 pm
I’ll predict the races I voted in:

Obama - 61%

Hendon - 33%
Bedi - 29%
Mertens - 35%

Collins - 49%
Winters - 51%

Top 3 Water Rec:
Spyropoulos
Avila
Maragos

Alvarez - 23%
Suffredin - 23%
Allen - 22%
Brookins - 20%
Milan - 10%
Brewer - 2%

Deratany - 52%
Berrios - 48%

Comment by Bill S. Preston, Esq. Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 1:28 pm
You were ok….better than the bloggers before you …Fran was particularly bad.

Comment by Bill Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 1:31 pm
Here’s a life lesson: Live TV is much harder to do than it looks.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 1:35 pm
Some people vote. Others stay home. Rich Miller gets a headache from smart a$$ed blog commentators. LOL

Comment by jwscott72 Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 1:42 pm
IL-03

Lipinski 33-39%
Pera 30-36%
Bennett 18-30%
Capparelli 4-9%

Comment by Carl Nyberg Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 1:45 pm
Rich - i thought it went very well. appeared that you got all your points covered, which is difficult under that kind of pressure. for the first time, the other bloggers struggled, esp the RealClear guy. Rich Samuels in earlier segment barely spoke in complete sentences. added bonus — you let the real Rich-personality come through when they threw district #s at you, which makes nice live TV experience. (although you were a little too spiffed up; i had to look twice when the feed started. LOL)

Comment by LG Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 1:49 pm
The problem was we didn’t do an audio test before I went on, so when I went “live” I discovered that there was a sound loop. Whenever I was talking, I could hear myself a half-second later, which threw me off for a while. Also, I thought I probably shifted around too much. Whatever. Thanks for the nice words.

Anyway, back to the topic at hand.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 1:54 pm
18th district will reflect the SJ-R poll.
61% McConoughey
35% Schock
4% Morris

Comment by Thinking without the box Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 1:57 pm
the weather is going to be a big factor for the I vote after work crowd–

Comment by Anonymous45 Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 1:57 pm
Sauberberg loses.

Skeeter, despite knowing that he should be home early getting ready for an important meeting late this week, has far more than one beer tonight.

Let’s hope that I go 1 for 2 with these predictions.

Comment by Skeeter Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 2:02 pm
Regarding the 3rd CD:

Lipinski — 45%
Pera — 30%
Bennett — 20%
Capparelli — 5%

Just asking: I saw something interesting this morning: the same person putting up signs in my precinct were putting up signs for both Capparelli and Bennett.

Comment by With Mine Own Two Eyes Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 2:03 pm
The one thing I can guarantee is that all of the DEM candidates for States Attorney will be setting up shop at the County building well past Midnight with lawyers in tow.

Also look for Tony Perica to be laughing in the background as the DEMS eat their own.

Comment by Whatever Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 2:04 pm
Rich, did Lauzen give up his State Senate Seat to run for Congress??

Comment by Whatever Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 2:06 pm
A few other predictions

Moore 53%
Smith 47%

MWRD
Meany
Maragos
Santos

Hendon 45%
Bedi 20%
Mertens 35%

I have no idea about the Board of Review race but I have to say no matter what anyone thinks of Berrios, there is no way I would vote for Deratany after those God awful commercials he is constantly running.

Comment by Been There Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 2:06 pm
Obama does not do as well in Illinois as predicted because of the weather. The new voters he has been tapping will stay home.

Comment by Bud Man Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 2:10 pm
Pollsters are wrong again (New Hampshire) as Godzillary wins California and sews up the nomination. She makes inquires to see if Harry Truman will be her running mate, but eventually finds out that the man from Independence died several years ago.

Comment by Whatever Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 2:13 pm
Rich:

Live TV is tough. I’ve done some myself in the past. Just try to remember where the 10th CD is, the site of the Seals-Footlik race. My prediction-Seals 61%; Footlik 39%

Comment by Wilmette Willie Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 2:17 pm
Willie did Seals ever actually move into the district? Cannot be hard to find a place in Arlington or Prospect.

Comment by Whatever Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 2:20 pm
Whatever,

Hillary probably will win CA…there are already millions of mail-in ballots in the can. So the polls there are meaningless. But no one will sew it up tonight - it is mathematically unlikely.

Comment by Jon Shibley Fan Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 2:33 pm
Whatever—

I’m not condoning Seals not living in District. Similar to what Melissa Bean did a few years ago.I think though that Seals ran a better issues-based campaign that will be reflected in the final numbers. I still think Kirk will win in November, especially with McCain heading the Republican ticket.

Comment by Wilmette Willie Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 2:33 pm
In No Order:
HOUSE
Burns
Turner
Moore
Mayer
Hahn
SENATE
Moreno
Hendon
Steans
Martinez
Rumler
CONGRESS
Oberweis
Schock
Seals
CCSA
Alvarez

Comment by best guessed plans Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 2:35 pm
Members of Congress are not required to reside in their actual district (only within the state), just ask Rod Blagojevich who resided outside of the 5th Congressional District for years.

Huckabee won West Virginia when McCain bailed on the state and had his caucus supporters shift to Huckabee. It is the same divide and conquer strategy that McCain used to defeat Romney in Iowa. Huckleberry Hound won because of McCain’s using his also ran campaign as a tool to beat Mitt.

Comment by Honest Abe Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 2:38 pm
did Lauzen give up his State Senate Seat to run for Congress??

Not required in IL. If he loses, he stays as 25th Senator and becomes even more insufferable, if that’s possible. If he wins, Milk Dud is a likely winner for his seat. In either case, they will continue debating for the next 2 years as if the election never ended.

My prediction - the undervote, combined with write ins such as Mickey Mouse, Daffy Duck and Dennis Hastert, will beat Michael Dilger (the other candidate in the 14th who has not really campaigned) 5-1.

Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 2:40 pm
Willie sorry, did not mean to sound edgy. Melissa Bean did live in her district but during 2002 redistricting she found herself living across the street(Literally) from her district.

Seals does not have the courage to take on Jan Schawkowsky. If he could not win in a miserable GOP year of 2006, he will never will.

Comment by Whatever Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 2:43 pm
===Seals does not have the courage to take on Jan Schawkowsky. ===

That’s one strange comment. What does courage have to do with it? JS has a Dem district. Already occupied. There’s no law that says Seals needs to live in the district to run there, so I’m not sure of your point.

Either way, back to the topic at hand, please.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 2:46 pm
Fair Enough Rich. Kirk 57%, Seals 43%

Comment by Whatever Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 2:52 pm
For President: Obama with 61%

IL 10: Seals
IL 11: Baldermann
IL 14: Oberweiss finally gets his day in the sun (until November)
IL 18: Schock

Allen wins the nomination for CC State’s Attorney.

Deratany wins Board of Review, thanks of course to that stellar endorsement by Forrest Claypool.

Burns wins the House Nomination for District 26…sorry to say that’s the only primary I’ve been paying attention to at the state level.

Comment by K to the 3 Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 3:11 pm
Obama wins handily. McCain wins also. Ron Paul surprises with good numbers possibly even beating Romney for second. Saurberg wins.
The issue is decided Obama is the nominee. The convention is wild everyone is talking about unification. Bill is depressed that he won’t be in the White House again, gets drunk and asks Ted Kennedy to drive Hillary home.

Comment by Irish Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 3:20 pm
Three Predictions:

1. The Democratic turn-out in DuPage county — 50/50 or better in many polling places — is going to scare the living hell out of the Republican establishment.
2. The Attorney General’s office will tell the local election officials they must do a better job of instructing their judges that voters do not have to show photo I.D. in Illinois.
3. My Democratic signs will be stolen out of my yard by the time I get home tonight.

– SCAM

Comment by so-called "Austin Mayor" Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 3:40 pm
K to the 3
I hope that you are right about Deranty, Allen and Seals but watch out for Kenny Johnson. He’s got the Mo going in.

Comment by Bill Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 3:43 pm
Austin Mayor, they said the same thing about DuPage in 2006 only to see Roskam beat Duckworth and the GOP win every County Office.

Comment by Whatever Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 3:48 pm
Obama wins Illinois around 70%. Hillary gets more delegates nationwide.
McCain scores an Illinois win with about 45%.
Suffredin ekes one out around 30% - Brookins gives a scare, and Peraica is bummed.
Berrios pulls it out with less than 55%.
Frank Avila Sr. gets re-elected to MWRD.
The Milk Dud finally gets elected.
Lipinski wins.
Schock gives the People’s Republic of China something new to complain about with his win.
Smith wins - no more Moore.
Kenny Johnson edges past Will Burns.
Hendon over Mertens.
Pat Dowell smacks finishes off the donut.

Comment by phocion Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 4:02 pm
Attention “With mine own two eyes”

Your experience is similar to mine. I saw 11th Ward precinct captains handing out palm cards for both Lipinski and Caparelli!

Something tells me the powers-that-be want Lipinski to win, but look bad doing so. Maybe they’re preparing a real candidate to run against him next time — one who will get organizational support.

Comment by R.A. Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 4:17 pm
Watch for Alvarez to win the State’s Atty. race by about a half a percentage point. The winner won’t be declared until about 3 p.m. Wednesday.

Comment by R.A. Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 4:21 pm
I was out at train stops this afternoon and the weather is straight up nasty - there’s no way in hell the after work crowd is going to traipse out to their polling places.

Comment by Bill S. Preston, Esq. Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 5:37 pm
Glad I voted two weeks ago - this night is not fit for man nor beast.

I predict the turnout will be much lighter than initially expected, despite the record-setting number of early voters.

Biggest surprise tonight - State’s Attorney race in Cook County too close to call, with Alverez neck and neck with Suffredin.

I predict David Orr will call for better training for election judges after Lisa Madigan’s office threatens prosecution of rogue election judges.

I predict Hendon will win, but narrowly, giving Amy Sue Mertens a lot of visability and a good start for her next election.

I predict Lauzen wins and gives the weirdest victory speech ever.

Looking farther down the road, I predict that Paul Vallas takes enough votes away from Lisa Madigan so that Blago wins a narrow three-way race in the 2010 primary. Comparisons with Ralph Nader will follow. The field could have been split even more narrowly were it not for the Governor’s successful challenges to Pat Quinn’s nominating petitions.

Comment by Downtrodden Tuesday, Feb 5, 08 @ 6:11 pm