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* Tom Kacich…
Illinois’ population decline — 18,124 over the last decade — isn’t because of the six-county Chicago metropolitan area. That region’s population grew by 129,216 between the 2010 and 2020 censuses, including a gain of 50,790 in the city of Chicago.
The state’s losses have been in the other 96 counties in Illinois, where total population has sunk by 147,340 over the last decade.
If you include Kendall, Grundy and Kankakee counties — three that the federal government combines into the Chicago metropolitan area — the contrast is even more severe. Grundy County added about 2,500 people between 2010 and 2020, while Kendall County added 17,133.
Every county but four south of Interstate 80 in Illinois — Champaign, McLean, Effingham and Williamson — lost population over the last 10 years.
* Downstate’s population issue will, as the headline says, make it much easier for Democrats to delete a Republican congressional district whenever they get around to it…
ILLINOIS: weak census numbers Downstate could help Dems gerrymander even more aggressively. In this 14D-3R example, #IL17 stretches from Macomb (WIU) to DeKalb (NIU) and goes from Trump +2 to Biden +7. pic.twitter.com/c9ryIw6nA4
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 14, 2021
* He tweeted a somewhat similar hypothetical map before with more context…
How big are the potential swings here? Rep. Rodney Davis (R)'s downstate #IL13 would go from Trump +3 to Biden +18. Rep. Lauren Underwood (D)'s #IL14 would go from Biden +2 to Biden +14.
Another example of why redistricting is pretty much the ballgame for House control.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) July 29, 2021
Keep in mind that the final map may very well look a whole lot different than the ones above. The point here is that the new Census results have made the Democrats’ job much easier.
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Aug 17, 21 @ 11:04 am
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Wasserman’s maps are fun hypotheticals but, yes, not actually what we’ll see. I think it was a few months ago some reporter thought they were actually what was under consideration.
Comment by Nick Tuesday, Aug 17, 21 @ 11:06 am
The point is that the Dems will use the census numbers to press their advantage and draw friendly maps. Not sure they will follow the “compact” part.
From IL costitution:
“Legislative Districts shall be compact, contiguous and substantially equal in population. Representative Districts shall be compact, contiguous, and substantially equal in population.”
Comment by Donnie Elgin Tuesday, Aug 17, 21 @ 11:12 am
For those who argue that gerrymandering doesn’t work to polarize the two parties, note which Republicans are getting squeezed out. And that 13th district belongs on a mike carton under “Have You Seen My Voting Power?”
Comment by lake county democrat Tuesday, Aug 17, 21 @ 11:15 am
Man, all that crime and high taxes is really pushing people to move out the downstate area. I blame liberal Democrats. They’re just going to keep losing people if they don’t start electing strong conservatives. /s
Comment by Lester Holt’s Mustache Tuesday, Aug 17, 21 @ 11:22 am
In the honest?
It shoulda been the freshman Mary Miller without a seat after musical chairs.
Downstate has had the losses, it should be the Trumpkins losing a seat, no matter if the Dems can (and frankly will) cut a map without a Trumpkin seat.
The question now remains… Rodney Davis.
Davis is arguably too scared to take on Miller, so why not go office shopping… or what if Miller gets her seat… and Davis is drawn with LaHood… Davis’ own antics lately make him the easy target to make life really miserable… move to take on Miller who will “Out-Trump” him at every primary turn, or go after LaHood, who is the Bustos of the Trumpkins nationally… or run statewide, saddled with two votes against impeaching Trump… in a general election against a billionaire… in Illinois.
Downstate should take this hit… and be saddled as it were with its… “Leaders”
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Aug 17, 21 @ 11:25 am
Not that these maps are final, or even official. But…
I’d be happy to vote for Lauren Underwood if I was moved into the 14th, even though I’ve been fairly happy with Foster as my current rep in the 11th.
The possibilities for my location in the future are a scientist and inventor, or a health care professional with a deservedly stellar reputation in office.
In comparison to some of the other districts -cough southern IL cough- I almost feel spoiled.
Comment by TheInvisibleMan Tuesday, Aug 17, 21 @ 11:35 am
=The point here is that the new Census results have made the Democrats’ job much easier.=
Irony or karma or both. In an historic proportion- ILGOP wanted to wait for the census data and now they have it. Lol.
Comment by JS Mill Tuesday, Aug 17, 21 @ 11:37 am
At the very least, if you’re a downstate Dem you should be pretty happy.
Having 2/5 predominantly downstate districts isn’t a bad deal for them at all.
Comment by Nick Tuesday, Aug 17, 21 @ 11:37 am
“It shoulda been the freshman Mary Miller without a seat after musical chairs.”
Wouldn’t the proposed top map do that? Wouldn’t it put Miller with Bost?
Comment by Ducky LaMoore Tuesday, Aug 17, 21 @ 11:45 am
Adding Bloomington-Normal to the 17th makes far more sense than adding DeKalb. You can keep the 13th blue by adding more of the metro east and the west side of Springfield and they’ll want to keep DeKalb in the 14th to help keep Underwood in office.
Comment by The Real Downstate Tuesday, Aug 17, 21 @ 11:51 am
=== I think it was a few months ago some reporter thought they were actually what was under consideration. ===
That reporter was Greg Hinz at Crain’s, and I’ve been emailed congressional map “copies” from people who have some insider knowledge only to instantly recognize, and inform the sender, they sent a version of Dave Wasserman maps.
The latest map he tweeted Saturday afternoon is version 5. We’ll know when the Springfield Map Room issues its first official draft copy if Wasserman’s take is accurate or even ballpark. Seeing how latest version consolidates suburban Hispanic population into the new IL-11, Wasserman appears to be getting credible local inputs/sources in his maps, IMHO.
Comment by John Lopez Tuesday, Aug 17, 21 @ 11:53 am
Again, it is a bit of folly to think Pritzker will sign a 14-3 map after first going back and signing, already, a map drawn by legislators.
The easiest thing, “still”, is to trade Kinzinger’s seat for the open Bustos seat, making each “Chicagoland” media market “Blue”, saving hundreds of thousands, if not millions, on media buys for competitive seats in that market.
Plus it eliminates any Trumpkin foothold (unless Kinzinger can hold serve in a primary?) upstate and delutes the Trumpkin seats by one by merely drawing out one Trumpkin seat.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Aug 17, 21 @ 11:59 am
The 2022 will look different than the 2020 election results. Talking with many independents, the lawlessness running rampant will be blamed on somebody.
Comment by Blue Dog Tuesday, Aug 17, 21 @ 12:00 pm
=== Talking with many independents===
That’s “- A Guy -“ schtick, “talking to”… whomever.
Anecdotal isn’t fact, you know that, but your Facebook silly does break the monotony
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Aug 17, 21 @ 12:02 pm
Anecdotal. Maybe. Maybe not. Lots of scared people running around. Unlike anything I have ever seen. There’s a reason you can’t find ammo anywhere.
Comment by Blue Dog Tuesday, Aug 17, 21 @ 12:10 pm
=== Anecdotal. Maybe.===
No. Not maybe. This isn’t “alternative facts”
===Lots of scared people running around. Unlike anything I have ever seen.===
LOL, I mean, if you’re gonna talk to the same 9 people you think are independents…
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Aug 17, 21 @ 12:13 pm
OW, do you think the leg draws a 14-3 map and the Gov tells them to go back and make a 13-4? Or should we just expect a 13-4 from the get go? Seems like there’s a lot of national pressure for a 14-3 to try to “save” the US House for Dems.
Comment by The Real Downstate Tuesday, Aug 17, 21 @ 12:19 pm
Anytime the Republicans want to halt their national war of bigoted voter suppression and gerrymandering, we’d be glad to be “reasonable” about Illinois districts, which should still cost the seditionists at least one seat flipped.
Comment by VerySmallRocks Tuesday, Aug 17, 21 @ 12:28 pm
I don’t see why the Gov would care, either way.
Comment by Nick Tuesday, Aug 17, 21 @ 12:29 pm
- The Real Downstate -
If it were me (I’m not the governor, not a legislator) I’d try to see a map as I’ve described often;
Trade Bustos/Kinzinger
Draw downstate seat out
It could be drawn 12-3, two “toss ups”, but the wrinkle is one leans far mor blue than toss up and the other would be a trending “blue” seat but still “appears” a toss up / red seat… today.
13-4
Why put the governor in a position of weakness to his word, heck, I remember a 10-8 map not too long ago, now 13-4… Illinois has done its best to be consistent with trends to maps, while also having the majority see seats where gains do exist.
A 14-3 seat drawn as such, is a bridge too far, even for me who believes “winners make policy”… and maps too.
I have no idea what the legislators or governor may do.
My opinion and $5.25 gets you a cup of coffee. Nothing more.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Aug 17, 21 @ 12:29 pm
There are many Dems downstate but they tend to live in cities and towns that are in a sea of red. Those spidery districts exist because of the urban/rural political divide in our country. Whether you call it gerrymandering or giving people a chance to elect someone that represents their views depends on your side of the aisle.
Comment by Jibba Tuesday, Aug 17, 21 @ 12:37 pm
Those maps would be illegal because two Latino districts with citizen voting age populations above 57% can be created, alongside three black majority districts above 50%. Anything less than that for either racial group would violate the Voting Rights Act.
Comment by Mike Tuesday, Aug 17, 21 @ 1:01 pm
=== There will be pressure to create two Latinx districts in the coming mapmaking process. Also, the chair of the House Redistricting Committee is Rep. Elizabeth Hernandez and the Senate’s Redistricting Committee chair is Sen. Omar Aquino. ===
Rich posted the above observation in his March 15 article, which included Dave Wasserman’s version 2 of his hypothetical IL congressional remap, which Wasserman tweeted March 12.
On same day, Wasserman tweeted version 3, where he introduced the “semi-swap” of IL-14 with IL-11.
Wasserman said in his tweet, “One other IL rumor I’ve heard: Reps. Bill Foster (D) IL-11 and Lauren Underwood (D) IL-14 semi-swapping districts, with Foster picking up FermiLab’s particle accelerator (Batavia) and DeKalb (NIU), and Underwood taking Bolingbrook & Joliet. Both would get Biden 10%+ districts.”
Versions 4 (June 1, retweeted July 29) and 5 (August 14) above both maintain the semi-swap of IL-11 and IL-14.
But as Rich pointed out on March 15, appears IL-11 consolidation of suburban Hispanic population including:
Aurora (Kane & DuPage), West Chicago, Elgin (both Kane & Cook), Carpentersville and Harvard taking place to build a significant Hispanic population in the new IL-11.
While not the Hispanic density of IL-04, looks like new IL-11, if Wasserman’s sources accurate, consolidating suburban Hispanic population making the 2nd Hispanic district.
Comment by John Lopez Tuesday, Aug 17, 21 @ 1:06 pm
I don’t think it’s possible to draw two CVAP Hispanic districts. VAP, certainly. But CVAP, no.
Comment by The Real Downstate Tuesday, Aug 17, 21 @ 1:26 pm
“There’s a reason you can’t find ammo anywhere”
Patently false and a lie.
I have bought ammo at the Rural King in Carbondale over the last month. They have folding tables full of rifle, handgun, and shotgun ammo. Single boxes and bulk.
You are a liar and a troll.
Comment by Flying Elvis'-Utah Chapter Tuesday, Aug 17, 21 @ 1:33 pm
I was talking to some people who know more about everything than anybody else…but generally keep it to themselves.
Comment by Dotnonymous Tuesday, Aug 17, 21 @ 1:42 pm
“I don’t think it’s possible to draw two CVAP Hispanic districts. VAP, certainly. But CVAP, no.”
I believe that’s right. You can get two districts that are (bare) majority hispanic, but not necessarily where a majority of voters are.
Seems likely that you’ll get one Hispanic majority seat and another that’s Hispanic opportunity.
Comment by Nick Tuesday, Aug 17, 21 @ 1:46 pm
The Rural King in Murphy has the same ammo. A few ..223, 9mm, .22, and one or two size pellets for .12 ga. A sparse selection and only recently. You can also get some 5.62.
Comment by Blue Dog Tuesday, Aug 17, 21 @ 2:52 pm
=Lots of scared people running around.=
Says the guy from the shrinking part of the state that thinks he’s got his finger on the pulse of what’s happening in the big city and the collar counties where most of the voters reside.
Comment by Pundent Tuesday, Aug 17, 21 @ 3:00 pm
Blue Dog, I could not disagree with you more. As a Republican with many independent friends, my anecdotal says the opposite of you because we are scared of nothing but Trump and his supporters as we do not think they are sane or Republicans. But, I concede my comment is as meaningless and inane as yours
Comment by Lurker Tuesday, Aug 17, 21 @ 3:16 pm
Use Dave’s Redistricting app with the new census data from 2020 to see how easy it is to draw CVAP majority Latino districts. One from the southwest side of the city out to Aurora / dupage county and another from the northwest side of the city out to the northwest suburbs.
Comment by Mike Tuesday, Aug 17, 21 @ 3:42 pm
==Use Dave’s Redistricting app with the new census data from 2020 to see how easy it is to draw CVAP majority Latino districts. One from the southwest side of the city out to Aurora / dupage county and another from the northwest side of the city out to the northwest suburbs.==
Sounds like this is basically dividing the current 4th CD into separate “northern” and “southern” CVAP majority Latino districts then taking them out to the suburbs.
Comment by EssentialStateEmployeeFromChatham Tuesday, Aug 17, 21 @ 4:27 pm
“Lots of scared people running around.”
The self-proclaimed Christians fear government when Jesus clearly said give Caesar what is his. Oh, they of little faith—if they had it they wouldn’t cling to guns in dread. Do they use the Bible for anything other than a political weapon?
Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, Aug 17, 21 @ 7:16 pm
There is no CVAP for 2020. Only VAP. Check again.
Comment by The Real Downstate Tuesday, Aug 17, 21 @ 9:01 pm
Wasserman’s maps still unnecessarily split counties. I’d really like to see as few splits as possible.
Comment by Odysseus Tuesday, Aug 17, 21 @ 9:22 pm
I’m still holding out hope for a competitive Central Illinois district.
Comment by TJ Wednesday, Aug 18, 21 @ 7:49 am
==Adding Bloomington-Normal to the 17th makes far more sense than adding DeKalb. You can keep the 13th blue by adding more of the metro east and the west side of Springfield==
You could also extend the new 13th farther south, thinly along the Mississippi, to include Carbondale and Cairo.
Comment by EssentialStateEmployeeFromChatham Wednesday, Aug 18, 21 @ 7:52 am