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* Tribune…
A voting advocacy group said Thursday state legislative district maps approved by Democrats earlier this week fail to maximize Black representation and would reduce the number of Black-majority districts in the state.
Illinois African Americans for Equitable Redistricting sent a letter to a panel of three federal judges overseeing legal challenges to the map asking them to use their “leverage” to approve a redistricting plan that “provides optimal opportunity for Black voters to exercise their right to elect candidates of their own choosing.”
Republicans and the Mexican American Legal Defense and Educational Fund have filed separate federal lawsuits over the maps. MALDEF, in a status hearing Wednesday, told the court panel it plans to challenge the latest map on federal Voting Rights Act grounds, contending it underrepresents a Latino population that grew by 15% over the last decade and reduced the number of legislative districts with a Latino voting-age majority.
* Press release…
Members of Illinois African Americans for Equitable Redistricting (IAAFR) have reviewed the Legislature’s final redistricting plan and they are not happy. “From what we can see, Black voters in the state of Illinois are worse off under the revised plan than we were under the plan enacted in June”, said Valerie F. Leonard, the group’s convener. “In fact, every redistricting plan the Legislature has come up with after 2011 has done progressively more harm to Black voters”.
In 2011, the redistricting plan was drawn with 16 majority Black Representative districts, and 8 majority Black Senate districts. This past spring UCCRO developed a redistricting proposal with 18 representative districts with 50% or more Black population. They also drew 9 Black Senate districts.
A recent review of the data that supports the maps enacted in June revealed that the Legislature drew 12 Black Representative districts and 6 Black Senate districts. The amended plan reduced the number of Black Representative districts from 12 to 8, and the number of Black Senate districts from 6 to 4. Black people made up 14% of Illinois population in 2011 and 14% of the state’s population in 2021. The latest redistricting plan drew fewer than 7% of the new districts as majority Black.
We know the Legislature can figure out a way to balance their political agenda with optimizing Black voting rights”, Leonard said. Speaker Madigan did this in 2011, and the data show that it is possible to do it again. For some reason, they decided not to go that route this time around.”
IAAFR shared their concerns in a letter to the Court overseeing the lawsuit brought by MALDEF and the Republican leaders.
The letter is here.
I asked the group’s convener Valerie Leonard if the group plans to sue. “We are exploring our options,” she replied.
Lots of districts are near to a Black majority, however. And voting history has shown that white folks in the state are willing to vote for Black candidates, which is one of the arguments the Democrats will likely make.
* Meanwhile…
As the Illinois House and Senate passed new redistricting maps on August 31, community members organized by the non-partisan United Congress of Community and Religious Organizations (UCCRO) urge Governor JB Pritzker to veto the maps and meet with UCCRO about its Unity Map proposal that protects the ability of communities of color to elect candidates of our choice. The passed maps weaken the voting power of Black and Latino community members and largely ignore Asian American and Arab American communities. The rushed and exclusionary mapping process has imposed significant challenges to Black and Brown communities who are trying to work together toward win-win outcomes.
WHO:
Rod Wilson, UCCRO
Reverend Robin Hood, UCCRO
Latino Policy Forum
IL Muslim Civic Coalition
Enlace Chicago
Coalition for a Better Chinese American Community (CBCAC)
Erica Knox, Chicago Lawyers’ Committee for Civil RightsWHERE: Outside the James R. Thompson Center (100 W. Randolph Street, Chicago IL)
WHEN: 10:00 a.m. CT, Friday, September 3, 2021
*** UPDATE *** Henry Olsen at the Washington Post on the Illinois remap…
The new map is so brazen that progressive elections analyst Drew Savicki found it would create up to 85 districts expected to be Democratic in the 118-seat state House, even though only 69 Democrats would be elected in a map that fairly reflected the proportional strength of each party. So while Democrats would naturally win a majority because they dominate the state, the Democratic plan would net them nearly 80 percent of the seats from less than 60 percent of the votes.
That’s a ridiculous assumption based on the numbers I’ve seen.
* But, there’s no doubt the map is gerrymandered…
Calabrese estimated that House Democrats, who hold a 73-45 majority, will pick up at least five seats in the 2022 election. […]
On the Senate side, he suggested Democrats may lose a seat or two, putting a slight dent in their current 41-18 margin. Calabrese said Democrats decided to redraw Senate districts in a way that ensures virtually all of them will be overwhelmingly Republican or Democratic, impervious to a general election challenge.
Calabrese’s numbers that I’ve seen and published show at most (not at least) a five-seat gain for House Democrats, but those are just numbers on paper and I do not totally agree. Some Republicans, like Reps. Mark Batinick and Bradley Stephens, have proved to be quite adept at overcoming Democratic trends.
And I’m not yet convinced that the Senate Democrats will definitely lose two seats. Both districts he’s labeled as possible losses have been won by Democrats in the past even though the districts had more Republicans then than they have now.
posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Sep 3, 21 @ 9:20 am
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We can do the right thing now, or we can spend a great deal of time and taxpayer money, defending a procedure that already evoked racial considerations in producing the current map.
Because there can be no doubt that the current map involved considerations of ethnic diversity in the allocation of districts, any defense against ethnic groups claiming unfair representation will require explaining why ethnic considerations are to be allowed in one the establishment of the current map, even when those intentional efforts produced unequal representation.
I understand the fire is how, and the iron needs to be struck now. I also understand the history of cases regarding gerrymandering suggests a 50/50 proposition in the courts. But certifying the current maps definitely guarantees there will be great waste of fiscal resources, defending what no one denies in fact represents unequal representation in terms of ethnicity.
Comment by H-W Friday, Sep 3, 21 @ 9:36 am
===I asked the group’s convener Valerie Leonard if the group plans to sue. “We are exploring our options,” she replied.===
Right now this letter is “pounding the table” legal thoughts on a letter?
Not saying they are right or wrong, just seems by this point they’d know what they would or would not do, and not much time to “decide” given the other legal maneuvers
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Sep 3, 21 @ 9:41 am
===So while Democrats would naturally win a majority because they dominate the state, the Democratic plan would net them nearly 80 percent of the seats from less than 60 percent of the votes.===
Now do poor GOP candidate recruiting in this mix.
80? Hmm.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Sep 3, 21 @ 9:44 am
=== … there’s no doubt the map is gerrymandered… ===
A practice that is perfectly ok with the majority of the U.S. Supreme Court.
Comment by Norseman Friday, Sep 3, 21 @ 9:44 am
Given what’s happening in our country in GOP controlled states that seem very intent on stripping rights away from people in addition to gerrymandering, in addition to lying about election fraud, in addition to violent attacks against national institutions, I think it’d be best to wait until there is a national law that addresses gerrymandering rather than creating a situation where a concept of “fairness” in one state contributes to the impact of deliberate and intentional disenfranchisement in another.
Comment by Candy Dogood Friday, Sep 3, 21 @ 9:45 am
“We’re mad, but not quite litigation mad.”
Comment by Flyin' Elvis'-Utah Chapter Friday, Sep 3, 21 @ 9:45 am
== But, there’s no doubt the map is gerrymandered…==
As is every map. The only difference is who’s side Gerry is on.
Comment by Bruce( no not him) Friday, Sep 3, 21 @ 9:51 am
Like FEUC said, cue the “Bang Zoom (banned explanation point)” scene from The Honeymooners.
Comment by Jocko Friday, Sep 3, 21 @ 9:52 am
The pains of being a mapmaker for a party representing an ethnically diverse coalition.
Comment by Norseman Friday, Sep 3, 21 @ 9:55 am
So lemme see if I have this straight…old angry white guys don’t like the maps, Mexican Americans don’t like the map, African Americans don’t like the map, Religious groups don’t like the map.
Yep, I am convinced that this may be the best map ever. If everyone is against it, it is probably pretty good.
Comment by JS Mill Friday, Sep 3, 21 @ 9:56 am
I don’t believe any African-American, Latino or Asian legislators voted against the redistricting legislation. I imagine that they did so because they thought the new map advanced, not set back, minority participation. Are these groups addressing this glaring disconnect to reality?
Comment by Jasmine Friday, Sep 3, 21 @ 9:57 am
I imagine that they did so because they thought the new map advanced, not set back, minority participation
No, they voted for it because it means 10 years of job security.
Speaker Madigan did this in 2011
That’s a shot at someone…..
Comment by Fav Human Friday, Sep 3, 21 @ 10:01 am
===I don’t believe any African-American, Latino or Asian legislators voted against the redistricting legislation.===
As an optics to the litigation, not any reflection of the merits, it’s a huge miss to making a case that there’s a feel by those who voted on the map that these groups have “merits”… the votes say otherwise?
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Sep 3, 21 @ 10:02 am
Be interesting to see what Rep Butler says when his Republican friends gerrymander the Sangamon County Board map where currently the board President Andy Van Meter lives NEXT DOOR to fellow Republican Board member Preckwinkle.
Comment by jimbo26 Friday, Sep 3, 21 @ 10:05 am
Good thing we have a Governor who vowed to veto it. /s
Comment by Smalls Friday, Sep 3, 21 @ 10:18 am
*** UPDATE *** Henry Olsen at the Washington Post on the Illinois remap…
Henry Olsen of the “Ethics and Public Policy Center,” which is famous for smearing an innocent person and claiming Brett Kavanaugh had a doppelganger during SCOTUS nomination hearings. Only the best research I suppose.
Comment by Shield Friday, Sep 3, 21 @ 10:21 am
What JS Mill said. My thoughts exactly.
Comment by Manchester Friday, Sep 3, 21 @ 10:24 am
85 Dem seats in the House? Sounds like some out-of-town stupid from the WaPo….unless there’s a Watergate or FDR-level national Dem wave, which ain’t happening next year.
At the same time, one could argue that the House Dems have underperformed their Senate colleagues this decade. 41 Dem Senate seats should at least theoretically mean 82 Dems in the House. Again, that’s theoretical, the reality is much more complicated. But either way, the new map should equate to more House Dems. It’s a good opportunity for Speaker Welch to prove his caucus can thrive post-Madigan.
Comment by Roman Friday, Sep 3, 21 @ 10:33 am
Is there a link to this Unity map they talked about?
Comment by low level Friday, Sep 3, 21 @ 10:44 am
John and Jane Public, like many, many Illinois voters, couldn’t tell you today who their state legislator is or pick them out of a lineup.
We’re political nerds here, so we follow and put a lot of emphasis on process stuff like this. But we’re a tiny minority of hyper engaged people. This is our decennial circus, but will be forgotten or ignored by the vast majority of voters next fall.
Comment by 47th Ward Friday, Sep 3, 21 @ 10:48 am
== couldn’t tell you today who their state legislator is or pick them out of a lineup.==.
Not just who, many of them couldnt tell you WHAT a state legislator is either.
Comment by low level Friday, Sep 3, 21 @ 11:07 am
that NY Times article about the movement of Black population away from Northern cities…chocolate chip cities….to the South is a good way to understand why there is so much contention about redistricting. the numbers seemed to increase, now they are decreasing. consequences.
Comment by Amalia Friday, Sep 3, 21 @ 11:09 am
Well put by @47th Ward
If you stopped 100 people on any street corner in Illinois and ask them to mention the biggest challenges facing the state, you could count those mentioning “redistricting” on one hand.
Comment by Telly Friday, Sep 3, 21 @ 11:24 am
==Is there a link to this Unity map they talked about?==
That’s what I was wondering. I went to their website and could not find a link…I’d like to see that map. If you make claims about a better map, show us that map; it makes for a much stronger argument.
Comment by Pot calling kettle Friday, Sep 3, 21 @ 11:28 am
@JS Mill =If everyone is against it, it is probably pretty good=
While we seem to disagree in principle regarding the need to remap, there is merit in your argument.
Have a great weekend.
Comment by H-W Friday, Sep 3, 21 @ 11:44 am
Here is the Unity Map submitted to the Senate in May based on the ACS data
https://www.ilga.gov/senate/committees/Redistricting/102Maps/UCCRO%20IL%20Senate%20Unity%20Map%202021%20-%2005.09.21.pdf
Comment by Butter Cow Friday, Sep 3, 21 @ 11:59 am
==Here is the Unity Map submitted to the Senate in May based on the ACS data==
Looks like the Unity Map, at least downstate, is mostly the same as the current districts except for a few changes I noticed (I caught differences in some of the Peoria-area Senate districts). I don’t know about Chicago, however.
How about the Unity Map creators put their proposed map on Dave’s Redistricting App and we can get a close up view with stats?
Comment by NonAFSCMEStateEmployeeFromChatham Friday, Sep 3, 21 @ 12:12 pm
Squeaky wheels and all that
Comment by PublicServant Friday, Sep 3, 21 @ 12:14 pm
==Here is the Unity Map submitted to the Senate in May==
Thank you, that is a helpful start. It would be nice to have the House districts and everything in shape files…
Comment by Pot calling kettle Friday, Sep 3, 21 @ 12:23 pm
But, there’s no doubt the map is gerrymandered…
Excuse me, am I in Jefferson City, MO; Indianapolis, IN; Columbus, OH; Harrisburg, PA; Austin, TX; Oklahoma City, OK?
Comment by Anyone Remember Friday, Sep 3, 21 @ 1:33 pm