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* Too much ill-informed click-bait is a big reason for this…
“The messaging over the last month in the U.S. has basically served to terrify the vaccinated and make unvaccinated eligible adults doubt the effectiveness of the vaccines.” Neither of those views is warranted.” https://t.co/PNKiP29XV6
— Charlie Sykes (@SykesCharlie) September 7, 2021
* From that story…
In an unvaccinated person, a viral load is akin to an enemy army facing little resistance. In a vaccinated person, the human immune system launches a powerful response and tends to prevail quickly — often before the host body gets sick or infects others. That the viral loads were initially similar in size can end up being irrelevant. […]
But at least one part of the American anxiety does seem to have become disconnected from the facts in recent weeks: the effectiveness of the vaccines. In a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, nearly half of adults judged their “risk of getting sick from the coronavirus” as either moderate or high — even though 75 percent of adults have received at least one shot.
In reality, the risks of getting any version of the virus remain small for the vaccinated, and the risks of getting badly sick remain minuscule.
In Seattle on an average recent day, about one out of every one million vaccinated residents have been admitted to a hospital with Covid symptoms. That risk is so close to zero that the human mind can’t easily process it. My best attempt is to say that the Covid risks for most vaccinated people are of the same order of magnitude as risks that people unthinkingly accept every day, like riding in a vehicle.
…Adding… From comments…
As a vaccinated person you’re now far more likely to die of any number of things that have nothing to do with Covid. And if we reported on those risks the way we do breakthrough infections you’d probably never leave your house. If a 1 in 5,000 chance of getting Covid is too high of a risk for you to take on, you might want to revisit any number of activities you’re engaged in on a daily basis.
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Sep 7, 21 @ 9:41 am
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Part of the reason for this perception is that we’re asking the 75% or so that have been vaccinated to take the same precautions as the unvaccinated. Now there are good reasons for doing that given the way this virus spreads, but it also leaves the vaccinated feeling some level of vulnerability. Broad vaccine mandates would address this as they would allow the vaccinated population to do the things the vaccine should enable. And it would more squarely put the focus on the unvaccinated to finally get the virus under control.
Comment by Pundent Tuesday, Sep 7, 21 @ 9:48 am
Can we get our children vaccinated yet? Until then, the combination of the population of children and the anti-vaxxers is probably too large to stop the spread and is something that we’ll just have to live with.
Comment by AD Tuesday, Sep 7, 21 @ 9:50 am
But calm factual information doesn’t drive the clicks and views that hysterical screaming does.
“If it bleeds, it leads.”
Comment by Bruce( no not him) Tuesday, Sep 7, 21 @ 9:52 am
thanks for staying on this, Rich. Mask up, vax up.
Comment by Amalia Tuesday, Sep 7, 21 @ 9:55 am
“Risk of getting sick” is not the same as “Risk of hospitalization or dying”. I think my risk of getting sick, as a vaccinated person, is fairly high if I am around unvaccinated people. I won’t die, most likely, but I may wind up with longterm symptoms. I’m taking this thing seriously.
Comment by Soccermom Tuesday, Sep 7, 21 @ 9:58 am
There are too many variables for even the cautious and news adept people to navigate. I’m part of a group doing a booth at an outdoor event this week. Had a member call and yell at me for even considering attending this event. I’m vaxxed, he’s vaxxed. I explained I’m following the guidance, but even that’s hard to say with certainty. I have to go like 5 links deep to find much useful guidance on how to approach an outdoor event. Nowhere says it should be cancelled, but several places say you might consider cancelling. Mask guidance requires you to define large events, evaluate transmission rates, figure out how long your contacts will be. Then you have to do a similar exercise to consider the kids, but all the variables are different. And it’s hard to take cues from media, who sensationalize everything, or the politicians who act timidly and too late, based on what appear to be political considerations.
Comment by SWIL_Voter Tuesday, Sep 7, 21 @ 10:07 am
This is great news and very important. Everything is so new with COVID that naturally some vaccinated people are afraid, especially with the Delta variant. News like this needs to be drummed up.
Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, Sep 7, 21 @ 10:07 am
Fully vaccinated since early April. I never stopped unmasking when in public places (e.g., stores, church, etc.) even during the short time this summer when we were no longer under a state mask mandate. Definitely continued to do so at doctor’s offices as it was still required there.
I’ll probably remain hesitant about large crowds, indoor and outdoor, permanently, or maybe until at least until kids 2 and up can get vaccinated. Strongly considering just doing church online exclusively on Sundays again rather than in-person (since my church is large).
Comment by NonAFSCMEStateEmployeeFromChatham Tuesday, Sep 7, 21 @ 10:22 am
Aggregate numbers which lump vaccinated and unvaccinated together are hiding the story. This is now a pandemic among the unvaccinated. Visuals like maps of case, hospitalization and death rates show what’s going on better than the headlines. One look at it is obvious the virus is burning through low vaccinated areas at a far greater clip.
Comment by ChicagoVinny Tuesday, Sep 7, 21 @ 10:27 am
=I think my risk of getting sick, as a vaccinated person, is fairly high if I am around unvaccinated people.=
If the risk of testing positive with a vaccine is 1 in 5,000 than the risk of subsequently getting sick is statistically minute. That’s not to say we shouldn’t take this seriously, but it does underscore just how effective the vaccines are.
Comment by Pundent Tuesday, Sep 7, 21 @ 10:30 am
In Sunday’s Bloomington Pantagraph, a letter to the Editor promoted the use of Ivermectin to treat Covid-19 and warned people to keep an open mind toward it.
Does freedom of speech include messages that may prove fatal to people who read them? When we already have effective vaccines, why would people turn to animal medicine that is used on humans only in very limited cases (certain parasites) and in much, much lower dosages?
I guess the anti-government sentiment in the country is so strong that some people are happy to risk their life and the lives of others.
Frankly, I don’t get it.
Comment by Streator Curmudgeon Tuesday, Sep 7, 21 @ 10:40 am
There are validity issues with the claims that they’re making, which is fine, but fully vaccinated people can still face risks. The issue with this pandemic is that the data is always behind wherever the pandemic is at this current moment.
Full vaccinated people can still die from COVID-19. Fully vaccinated people can still have a serious illness from COVID-19. But yes, fully vaccinated people are a lot less likely to have a severe case of COVID-19 but the fact of the matter remains that there are still people who are fully vaccinated receiving treatment for COVID-19 right now in our hospitals.
Comment by Candy Dogood Tuesday, Sep 7, 21 @ 10:45 am
=Does freedom of speech include messages that may prove fatal to people who read them?=
The First Amendment is a protection from government, not a private business or a private citizen. Newspapers can censor (and do censor) as they see fit.
Comment by JS Mill Tuesday, Sep 7, 21 @ 10:45 am
===but the fact of the matter remains that there are still people===
It can’t be eliminated, not just because of the willfully unvaxed but also because animals can get it and then spread it to humans (like influenza). It’s going to be an added risk to our life and health for a long time. You likely wouldn’t get into a car being driven by a dead-drunk driver, so reasonable risk assessment will be in play here as well.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Sep 7, 21 @ 10:49 am
A real world way to see the difference between vaxed and unvaxed is to look at the Memorial Hospital (Springfield) home page. They track Covid hospitalizations, intensive care, and ventilator usage by unvaxed/vaxed. Today’s numbers are: hospitalized 65/14, intensive care 27/1, on a ventilator 16/0.
Comment by Rachel Tuesday, Sep 7, 21 @ 11:07 am
=== the Covid risks for most vaccinated people are of the same order of magnitude as risks that people unthinkingly accept every day, like riding in a vehicle. ===
The solution to “people are really bad at processing statistical info” isn’t to provide them with more statistical info.
$89 billion lottery tickets were sold in 2020.
For rough comparison, that’s about what the US spends on beer.
So think of all the people you know who drink beer, and that’s about how many people are less than rational when it comes to not just statistics, but also cost-benefit analysis and risk-reward assessments.
Any plan to stop the pandemic that depends on the general population being good at these things is doomed.
There is a reason we had to pass laws making it illegal to drink and drive, drive without a seatbelt, and drive while texting.
Comment by Thomas Paine Tuesday, Sep 7, 21 @ 11:17 am
=but the fact of the matter remains that there are still people who are fully vaccinated receiving treatment for COVID-19 right now in our hospitals.=
I don’t think that’s in dispute. But the instances of that occurring are incredibly small particularly when viewed in contrast to the number of vaccines that have been administered. The goal of the vaccine is not to eradicate Covid 19, it’s to make the disease and it’s spread far more manageable. And on that account it’s been a resounding success. The reporting on these rare breakthrough infections has resulted in decreased confidence in the vaccine. When in reality the data shows just how effective they’ve been.
Comment by Pundent Tuesday, Sep 7, 21 @ 11:25 am
= In Sunday’s Bloomington Pantagraph, a letter to the Editor promoted the use of Ivermectin to treat Covid-19 and warned people to keep an open mind toward it. =
I’m wondering who in MAGA world is making money from pushing Ivermectin. A grift is the only explanation I can think of for why this is such a hot topic among the anti-vax crowd.
Comment by cover Tuesday, Sep 7, 21 @ 11:31 am
“but it does underscore just how effective the vaccines are”
It also underscores mass dementia in parts of the country, where people would rather trust unproven livestock de-wormer over an FDA-approved vaccine that prevents the worst of COVID.
How do we get over that “sickness,” pathological fear and distrust of government? It’s been a position on the right since at least Reagan, and now it’s so harmful.
Comment by Grandson of Man Tuesday, Sep 7, 21 @ 11:54 am
=== so reasonable risk assessment will be in play here as well. ===
The apples to oranges comparison is noted, so to that all I will say is: ignoring the risks is different than pretending that a reasonable risk assessment has been made. Being ignorant of the risk is different than pretending that a reasonable risk assessment has been made.
We don’t have a strong basis or guideline to suggest what is and isn’t a reasonable risk for a person who has been vaccinated to assume and we’re at a point where eating out at a restaurant is riskier depending on which part of the state you live in.
We can play the “everyone has to make their own choices” game but we shouldn’t pretend that everyone’s choice is equally informed.
“Informed” decisions is what has made much of the United States the perfect incubator for the Delta variant, and now the Mu variant. We are having a problem that doesn’t seem to exist in other countries.
Maybe we shouldn’t pretend like people are capable of understanding the risks that they are exposing themselves to.
Comment by Candy Dogood Tuesday, Sep 7, 21 @ 12:09 pm
===Maybe we shouldn’t pretend like people are capable of understanding the risks===
Once they’re vaxed, the risks are super low and manageable. More rules and public education are vital, like with DUI, second-hand smoke, etc. After that, though, the government can’t hold your hand 24/7.
Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Sep 7, 21 @ 12:20 pm
OK, I dramatically overstated the odds of dying in a car wreck. they are 1 in @8800. Still high, but not as catastrophically high as I stated.
This explains why I have always been hesitant to get in a car.
Comment by cermak_rd Tuesday, Sep 7, 21 @ 12:27 pm
=== Once they’re vaxed, the risks are super low and manageable ===
Not if they have children at home under the age of 12, or elderly parents who might be vaxxed but who they frequently come into contact with and for whom a breakthrough infection could still be a death sentence. Also, breakthrough cases are still spreading the disease to strangers in a restaurant, bar or fundraiser.
Also, if you talk to doctors, they will tell you that while break through infections that result in hospitalization are indeed rare right now, for those who are hospitalized it is no joke. All you have to do is think of all of the infections you ever had (flu, pneumonia, etc) that did not require you to be hospitalized as an otherwise healthy individual and you realize this is some seriously bad stuff, still.
Everyone who is vaccinated needs to decide for themselves whether the risk of infection to others or hospitalization and long term health consequences for themselves is worth going into a public place where mask requirements do not exist or are not enforced, even if they are wearing a mask, keeping in mind that the vaccine is at best about 95 percent effective.
Comment by Thomas Paine Tuesday, Sep 7, 21 @ 12:53 pm
“keeping in mind that the vaccine is at best about 95 percent effective.”
It is lines like this one that drive me a little crazy. “at best” 95% effective makes it sound like 95% effective is not good. It is great. I wish everything in my life hit a 95% effective rate. We should all take precautions, protect others, etc., but as the article points out, we have let anecdotal stories swamp the story the data tells.
Comment by Montrose Tuesday, Sep 7, 21 @ 1:08 pm
I like to put this all in terms of possible vs probable. Is it possible that I, a fully vaxed individual, can get COVID and die from it? Yes, the vaccines are not 100% effective. However, is it probable that I could die from COVID? No. The vaccines are 90-95% effective from preventing hospitalizations and over 95% effective from preventing death from an infection. It is not probable that I will have life threatening effects from COVID after vaccination. It has now gotten down to a risk level on par with everyday life, like riding in a car or the flu. The only thing holding me back from living life like normal again is my 11 year unvaxed son (and that will hopefully be solved any day now).
Comment by Nathan Tuesday, Sep 7, 21 @ 1:13 pm
=keeping in mind that the vaccine is at best about 95 percent effective=
Which is the point of the article. Instead of focusing on the 95% effectiveness many have chosen to be hyper-focused on the 5%. That’s not to suggest that we shouldn’t protect kids under 12 or those that are medically vulnerable. But if those of us that were able to get a vaccine that are eligible this problem would be manageable.
Here’s another way to think of it. As a vaccinated person you’re now far more likely to die of any number of things that have nothing to do with Covid. And if we reported on those risks the way we do breakthrough infections you’d probably never leave your house. If a 1 in 5,000 chance of getting Covid is too high of a risk for you to take on, you might want to revisit any number of activities you’re engaged in on a daily basis.
Comment by Pundent Tuesday, Sep 7, 21 @ 1:22 pm
I go by a 75% rule…when the deal gets to 75% of what I need, I jump on it…and consider myself lucky.
You can’t always get what you want…get what you can…when you can get it.
Comment by Dotnonymous Tuesday, Sep 7, 21 @ 1:50 pm
I am reminded of this saying from ancient Norse mythology…
“The length of my life and the day of my death were written long ago…if I did not believe this, I would be afraid to put my nose outside the door.”
Comment by Dotnonymous Tuesday, Sep 7, 21 @ 3:34 pm
Based on a few of these comments I don’t understand how people have the courage to get out of the house every day. Get vaccinated. For one thing, covid 19, you have really really good odds of not dying from it.
Comment by DMC Tuesday, Sep 7, 21 @ 4:16 pm
==Can we get our children vaccinated yet?==
Better yet, is there ethically a way that we can skip clinical trials entirely and get kids fast-tracked on vaccinations?
Comment by NonAFSCMEStateEmployeeFromChatham Tuesday, Sep 7, 21 @ 5:46 pm
“keeping in mind that the vaccine is at best about 95 percent effective.”
Does this mean the vaccine is about 95 percent effective in preventing death or being hospitalized? Or does it mean the vaccine is 95 percent effective at becoming low or asymptomatic but still contagious? This matters if we want to protect our children who are too young to be vaccinated, and if we want to end the pandemic this year.
Comment by Enviro Tuesday, Sep 7, 21 @ 6:18 pm
Revised:
“keeping in mind that the vaccine is at best about 95 percent effective.”
Does this mean the vaccine is about 95 percent effective in preventing death or being hospitalized? Or does it mean the vaccine is 95 percent effective at not becoming low or asymptomatic but still contagious? This matters if we want to protect our children who are too young to be vaccinated, and if we want to end the pandemic this year.
Comment by Enviro Tuesday, Sep 7, 21 @ 6:24 pm