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* Press release…
A new Illinois survey of likely 2022 GOP Primary election voters was released today. This Illinois GOP Gubernatorial primary survey measures President Trump’s approval and breaks down voters’ preference in the 2022 primary election. Ogden and Fry, a nationally recognized polling firm, conducted the poll from October 3-4, on behalf of the Northwest Side GOP Club — a Chicago based Republican umbrella organization.
President Trump’s approval rating remains strong. The results showed that 86.6% of voters approve of President Trump, 13.4% disapprove.
On the second question, voters were asked their preferred candidate in the Illinois Republican Primary for Governor. The results showed that State Senator Darren Bailey, who sued Governor Pritzker over unilateral lockdowns last year, has a commanding lead with 33.3% followed by Jesse Sulllivan at 6.2%, Gary Rabine at 5.2%, and Paul Schimpf at 3.0%.
Ogden and Fry conducted this survey of 400+ respondents from a random selection of likely 2022 GOP Primary election voters. The margin of error is +/- 4.98%.
With the usual caveats about O&F polls, here are some results…
* Meanwhile, Sullivan has launched an effort to catch up…
Political outsider and Republican candidate for governor of Illinois Jesse Sullivan released his first television campaign ad [Friday] morning. The ad will air statewide and is part of a six-figure buy, the latest piece of a comprehensive television, digital, and radio plan to get Sully’s message out and begin a conversation with Illinois voters about what’s at stake in this race to replace JB Pritzker, who has already spent millions on the air.
The $222,032 cable TV aspect of this buy runs from October 2 through November 5. That’s slightly less than the governor has been spending per week. Sullivan has the money to sustain this rate for quite a while.
* The spot…
* Sun-Times…
Former state Sen. Paul Schimpf of Waterloo, who is also vying to be the Republican nominee for governor, has welcomed Sullivan’s entry into the race, but on Friday, he took issue with his opponent’s ad.
“Jesse Sullivan is not a veteran, and a TV advertisement that implies he is does a disservice to the voters of Illinois, who deserve better,” Schimpf said in a statement.
Schimpf spent 20 years in the U.S. Marines, at one point serving as the nation’s top adviser to prosecutors trying Saddam Hussein.
Sullivan’s campaign said in response to Schimpf’s statement Sullivan is “proud of his service as an Army civilian. That service has only deepened his respect for veterans and first responders who keep us safe at home and abroad.”
* These DGA videos are just laughable. All press release, zero impact…
The DGA is launching a new video today that hits the crowded GOP gubernatorial field for their radical anti-choice records. Watch the video here.
Darren Bailey has said he wants to outlaw abortion, even in cases of rape and incest, and Jesse Sullivan agrees on a near-total ban on abortion. Gary Rabine is a self-described “big pro-lifer,” and Paul Schimpf voted against the IL state law protecting abortion access if Roe v. Wade is overturned.
That release was sent out four days ago and it has since garnered precisely 5 views as of this writing. Pathetic. Stop wasting my time with this nonsense.
* Indeed, this particular bit of silliness had far more impact than anything the DGA has done here so far…
Somehow Darren Bailey’s campaign has convinced hundreds of people on Facebook that their lack of a mult box somehow amounts to a larger media audience because of… mic flags? pic.twitter.com/vXm8y80npi
— Mark Maxwell (@MarkMaxwellTV) October 1, 2021
In case you need it, a mult box definition is here.
*** UPDATE *** Nothing really new here…
Representative Adam Kinzinger, one of former President Donald Trump’s chief GOP antagonists and the only House Republican to vote last week for a “clean” debt limit increase, isn’t ruling out a bid for a Senate seat from Illinois or a campaign for governor.
Kinzinger, appearing Tuesday on Bloomberg Television’s “Balance of Power with David Westin,” said those potential alternatives are “not something I’m planning for at this moment.”
But he added, “I’m certainly not ruling it out,” noting that Democrats control the process of drawing new congressional lines in Illinois, with more details on that expected in the next week.
He said he’s putting what happens “in God’s hands,” adding, “I will not give up the fight for this country.”
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Oct 5, 21 @ 12:25 pm
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For all the “crime talk”, crime polled 4th out of 5 options.
Fourth.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 5, 21 @ 12:32 pm
Deciding to run on Faith while running against Pritzker will be quite the challenge
Is the Sullivan ad again promoting stolen valor?
A real smart campaign will wait when it’s too late and decisively make valor a point with an angry service member who served and calls Sullivan out on this.
At least Sullivan didn’t say out loud he has “many, many” kids, so it’s an improvement, less the valor thingy.
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 5, 21 @ 12:37 pm
Bailey is consolidating a lot of support a time where it seems like there is no such thing as a Republican gaffe. Rodney may have already missed his chance. Bailey is in total control of this primary.
Comment by Ducky LaMoore Tuesday, Oct 5, 21 @ 12:40 pm
Sometimes I think Bailey is just pretending to be dumb. Then I see stuff like this mult box thing and think there’s no way you can pretend to be that dumb. Oof.
Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Oct 5, 21 @ 12:43 pm
==Bailey is consolidating a lot of support a time where it seems like there is no such thing as a Republican gaffe.==
Bailey takes the lead by completely detaching himself from reality. The big Trump move, which Bailey is fully on board with, is to simply invent the reality you prefer. The polls indicate the Republican voting base is on board with this approach.
Comment by Pot calling kettle Tuesday, Oct 5, 21 @ 12:44 pm
The O&F results are not surprising, corn poll not withstanding. This is still clearly the party of Donald Trump and Bailey is the most Trumpian candidate. What’s truly remarkable is the high level of support that the losing President retains. But party purity, as opposed to outreach, seems to be more important than winning these days. It seems that in Illinois owning the libs and losing will go hand in hand.
Comment by Pundent Tuesday, Oct 5, 21 @ 12:52 pm
It’s a poll of 404 people, 62.1% of whom are from Downstate. Bailey’s going to take this as a win, but if anything, this is more a lesson in sampling bias. Besides, just like with the ‘corn poll’, the real winner here is still ‘Undecided’.
Comment by Margin of Error Tuesday, Oct 5, 21 @ 12:57 pm
There was a campaign announcement held last night, in a bar, from someone running for a local senate seat.
The campaign put out some info on social media a few weeks before which said Darren Bailey was going to be a special guest at the event.
The event was held last night as advertised. Darren Bailey wasn’t there. It’s a toss up if it was a deliberate lie on the invite to get more people to show up, or Bailey just skipped out.
Comment by TheInvisibleMan Tuesday, Oct 5, 21 @ 12:58 pm
Agreeing with quite a few here…
This poll is showing the shrinking of a party here in Illinois that continues to embrace Trump as the cult leader, not a former president.
The more candidates and campaigns look at this poll and see Trump as the key, it’s not a key to winning statewide in a general election
So… how bad do you wanna be the nominee that supports Trump to win the primary only to get pummeled in the general for that Trump embrace?
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 5, 21 @ 1:03 pm
So, Darren Bailey won a poll with a glaring sampling problem in which he won –checks notes– 33% of 49% of the respondents who had a specific candidate in mind? In other words, 51% of those who responded did NOT say they would vote for the esteemed gentleman from Clay County?
Yeah, this is a big ol’ nothing burger. But, typical Bailey, he’ll pound his chest about it.
Comment by Osborne Smith III Tuesday, Oct 5, 21 @ 1:15 pm
-Is the Sullivan ad again promoting stolen valor?-
Well the work of civilians with local populations has a lot to do with the tank he’s leaning on, don’t you know? Not sure how that would give a false impression. /s
Comment by Ron Burgundy Tuesday, Oct 5, 21 @ 1:27 pm
“Yeah, this is a big ol’ nothing burger.”
Small sample size noted…. Yet… Bailey has twice as many voters as all other candidates combined. This poll is about momentum. And it is our only data point. We need more polling for sure. But this is far from a nothing burger.
Comment by Ducky LaMoore Tuesday, Oct 5, 21 @ 1:29 pm
>>>>Bailey takes the lead by completely detaching himself from reality.
Has anyone here met Darren Bailey? Listened to him?
Comment by We've never had one before Tuesday, Oct 5, 21 @ 1:39 pm
=In other words, 51% of those who responded did NOT say they would vote for the esteemed gentleman from Clay County?=
But there’s also little evidence that a candidate exists in this current crop that can consolidate the 51% of the undecided votes. Now a lot can change between now and the primary but as things stand today the poll seems to favor Bailey. And when you consider that the former President has an 86.6% favorability rating in this poll and Bailey is the Trumpiest of the bunch, it’s hard to see anyone right now overtaking him. In fact it would seem that his greatest vulnerability may be an opponent who could somehow portray himself as being even further to the right.
Comment by Pundent Tuesday, Oct 5, 21 @ 1:41 pm
“Government waste” is the top issue for these people? If I had had to bet on these responses beforehand, I would have guessed literally any of the other choices before government waste.
Comment by Benjamin Tuesday, Oct 5, 21 @ 1:59 pm
==Bailey is consolidating a lot of support a time where it seems like there is no such thing as a Republican gaffe. Rodney may have already missed his chance. Bailey is in total control of this primary. ==
I dunno…it’s only 33%, and it’s so early…
I *think* I’d rather be Bailey than anyone else right now. But let’s see if Sullivan’s ad moves the needle at all.
Comment by Arsenal Tuesday, Oct 5, 21 @ 2:18 pm
And so the party I most identified with as a teen continues its march towards becoming a rounding error of superminority irrelevancy.
Comment by thechampaignlife Tuesday, Oct 5, 21 @ 2:31 pm
As a Democrat, I am PRAYING Darren Bailey is the GOP candidate in the general election.
Comment by Kyle’s mom Tuesday, Oct 5, 21 @ 2:41 pm
Rep. Adam Kinzinger stated on Bloomberg television today that he is open to a run for Governor.
He would certainly be a formidable candidate in a General election, but first he would have to win the primary and that may be harder to do than beating Pritzker.
Comment by Back to the Future Tuesday, Oct 5, 21 @ 2:53 pm
—–
Rep. Adam Kinzinger stated on Bloomberg television today that he is open to a run for Governor.
He would certainly be a formidable candidate in a General election, but first he would have to win the primary and that may be harder to do than beating Pritzker.
—–
I love it. Nobody who would be capable in the general can win a primary. Nobody who can win a primary can win the general.
Comment by dan l Tuesday, Oct 5, 21 @ 2:56 pm
“I dunno…it’s only 33%, and it’s so early…”
I hadn’t taken into account that the primary was moved to June from March. So, yeah, it is still pretty early. Bailey’s support, though, is still only going to grow. He isn’t inevitable. But he is trending that direction.
Comment by Ducky LaMoore Tuesday, Oct 5, 21 @ 2:58 pm
Tough being a moderate Republican these days.
Comment by Back to the Future Tuesday, Oct 5, 21 @ 3:03 pm
Again-
I-70 south is Bailey’s. How one of the remaining three get a commanding majority north, I can’t see.
Oh, I forget, the Davis is a shoo in crowd. When is your boy gonna get off the pine?
Comment by Flying Elvis'-Utah Chapter Tuesday, Oct 5, 21 @ 3:10 pm
“Tough being a moderate Republican these days.”
Not really. Plenty of centrist Dems out there.
Comment by Flying Elvis'-Utah Chapter Tuesday, Oct 5, 21 @ 3:11 pm
All Bailey needs to do is populate the Chicago area with Trump-loving Republicans, and he is a shoo-in for Governor.
Comment by Montrose Tuesday, Oct 5, 21 @ 3:13 pm
I can hear H.L. Mencken laughing from the great beyond.
Comment by Dotnonymous Tuesday, Oct 5, 21 @ 3:14 pm
Kinzinger has my full curiosity.
I’m interested in his thoughts, and plans, but until he decides what is what, he doesn’t have my attention
He’s a nicer, more old school Republican version of Davis, “today”, except with Davis kowtowing to Trump when it comes to impeachment
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 5, 21 @ 3:26 pm
It’s just as likely, either they’ve seen too many movies and think the mic forest is more impressive visually, as it is possible their coms people are inept or unaware of the use of mult boxes.
Comment by Give Us Barabbas Tuesday, Oct 5, 21 @ 3:35 pm
And let’s be real honest about the “microphone count” thingy.
It’s pandering to the lowest IQ that feels slighted, overlooked, “not heard”, the least smart that think Fredo got a raw deal kind of “smaaart, not like dumb like people say”
The grifting and trolling of their *own base* is truly a sight, lol
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 5, 21 @ 3:44 pm
Perhaps mult box technology has yet to make its way to the Eastern Bloc.
Comment by Michelle Flaherty Tuesday, Oct 5, 21 @ 3:51 pm
Very little reason to run statewide as a Republican today, for the primary vs. general/Trumpian reasons noted. So why would anyone do it? 1) positioning themselves for another office– but what, Congress? 2) naivety? 3) Any financial angle I’m missing (and I usually am)? Anyway, this whole Bailey/Sullivan/whoever sideshow is sort of interesting to watch as sport, but who’s pretending any of them have a chance in Nov?
Comment by 47th and Lake Park Tuesday, Oct 5, 21 @ 4:06 pm
The biggest issue facing Illinois is government waste?
So that’s why Bailey is always posting videos involving wasteful amounts of government paper, and he is either blowing them up or dumping them in the Governor’s office.
I don’t get it at all, but Bailey sure does.
Comment by Henry Francis Tuesday, Oct 5, 21 @ 4:25 pm
1. Darren Bailey is the one to beat. I’ve said it since the beginning and I will say it again: the Lay of The Land in Illinois favors a right-wing, anti-mask, pro-Trump Republican.
2. Sullivan is DOA.
Comment by Thomas Paine Tuesday, Oct 5, 21 @ 4:36 pm
It is still early. Kanye West may still get in it.
Comment by Al Tuesday, Oct 5, 21 @ 5:00 pm
Kinzinger- I can’t beat Mary Miller or Lahood if mapped that way. I won’t beat a Dem in competitive district so if KG will give me the money I’ll try to ride into a statewide race or US Senate and hope Dems will ignore all my pro-Trump voting record because I voted for certification of election and to impeach?
Comment by Frank talks Tuesday, Oct 5, 21 @ 5:21 pm
===I can’t beat Mary Miller or Lahood if mapped that way. I won’t beat a Dem in competitive district so if KG will give me the money I’ll try to ride into a statewide race … and hope Dems will ignore all my pro-Trump voting record…===
This is the Rodney Davis strategy as well. Just to be clear…
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 5, 21 @ 5:24 pm
Would love to see Bailey win this primary and lose by 30(?) plus points in the general. However, and I know it is a lazy comparison, but it always reminds of the 2016 presidential election and watching all the GOP primary candidates swallow their pride to the eventual winner of the primary and the general
Comment by Many Saints of Will County Tuesday, Oct 5, 21 @ 6:48 pm
Agreed. After the 2016 debacle, I take nothing for granted. Maybe I should pull a Republican ballot to vote for the most acceptable alternative to Bailey.
Comment by thechampaignlife Tuesday, Oct 5, 21 @ 7:21 pm
Dillard is the only Republican who can win. Having said that Bill Brady won—I think—98 counties and Pat Quinn win 4. All he really needed was Cook. So until a serious poll is done north of 80 not sure if this poll means anything. It’s Dillard or a sure fire loss for Republicans
Comment by Galway Bay Wednesday, Oct 6, 21 @ 4:01 am
===I think—98 counties and Pat Quinn win 4.===
Counties. Don’t. Vote.
===All he really needed was Cook.===
No. All he needed was more votes than his opponent. That’s how it works.
===It’s Dillard or a sure fire loss for Republicans===
Can Dillard get thru the primary in the era of Trump?
Dunno.
Comment by Oswego Willy Wednesday, Oct 6, 21 @ 6:05 am
==and hope Dems will ignore all my pro-Trump voting record…===
And his pro-Rauner record too.
Comment by NonAFSCMEStateEmployeeFromChatham Wednesday, Oct 6, 21 @ 7:54 am
=Bill Brady won—I think—98 counties and Pat Quinn win 4.=
My calendar says the election will be in 2022 not 2014. With or without Dillard the IGOP is light years away from where they were in 2014. And as a reminder, they did lose that election as well.
Comment by Pundent Wednesday, Oct 6, 21 @ 8:15 am
Darren Bailey is the Todd Akin of Lara Loomers.
The Trumpification of the IL GOP is nearly complete.
Comment by Eastern Bloc Gulag Wednesday, Oct 6, 21 @ 9:59 am