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* NY Times…
The share of the Democratic presidential vote in the Midwest declined most precipitously between 2012 and 2020 in counties that experienced the steepest losses in manufacturing and union jobs and saw declines in health care, according to a new report to be released this month.
The party’s worsening performance in the region’s midsize communities — often overlooked places like Chippewa Falls, Wis., and Bay City, Mich. — poses a dire threat to Democrats, the report warns.
Nationally and in the Midwest, Democratic gains in large metropolitan areas have offset their losses in rural areas. And while the party’s struggles in the industrial Midwest have been well-chronicled, the 82-page report explicitly links Democratic decline in the region that elected Donald J. Trump in 2016 to the sort of deindustrialization that has weakened liberal parties around the world. […]
Nine of the 10 states included in the survey have accounted for 93 percent of the loss of union members nationwide in the last two decades. And just in the last 10 years, these states have lost 10 percent of their union membership — an average that is three times greater than nationally.
Lots of small blue-collar cities in this state. They went for Reagan in the 80s, trended back Democratic somewhat, then went for Trump.
* Politico…
Illinois political strategist Porter McNeil contributed to the research that he says played out in some Illinois counties, too — Rock Island, Macon and Winnebago, to name a few. “These manufacturing counties are spread throughout key regions critical to winning legislative and congressional seats across the Midwest in 2022. Democrats need to change their game plans to reverse this trend,” he said.
* But it’s not as pronounced in Illinois, perhaps partly because our small town factories were decimated long ago…
* The actual shift seems smaller here than most…
• A 2 million vote shift away from Democrats: In our 10 states, Obama in 2012 had a net vote margin of +1,966,304 votes over GOP nominee Mitt Romney. Eight years later, Biden’s net margin in these 10 states was a negative 38,175 votes. Combined, that’s a staggering net shift of –2,004,479 votes away from the Democratic nominee in these 10 states.
• A flip of partisan support in midsize manufacturing counties: In our 10 states, Obama won midsize manufacturing counties by +105,848 votes in 2012. In 2016, Hillary Clinton lost them by 814,690 votes. While Biden improved on Clinton’s performance in these midsize factory towns, Trump still had a net margin of +660,831 votes in these counties, a shift of –4.4 percentage points away from Democrats from 2012.
• Huge growth by the GOP in small manufacturing counties: In factory town counties during this time period, Republican net margins skyrocketed, especially in small Factory Town counties. In this segment, the GOP gained a net +1,868,210 votes in 2020 compared to 2012 – a gain of +8.6 percentage points. Despite his working-class background, Biden won only 11 of these 480 counties. In contrast, GOP vote share grew in 470 of these 480 small manufacturing counties. […]
• Eight of 10 states have shifted away from Democrats: Only Minnesota and Illinois have gained. Eight other states have suffered a net shift of votes away from Democrats, ranging from a loss of 136,160 in Upstate New York to a 641,939 shift in Ohio. On average, 200,448 votes have shifted away from Democrats in each of the 10 states we studied.
• Dems in all 10 states lost votes in factory town segments: Though some states realized an increase in Democratic performance in metro, college, or suburban county types, all 10 states saw Democratic declines in small and midsize manufacturing counties. This vote shift away from Democrats ranged from a high of 582,372 in Ohio to a shift of 133,540 votes away from Dems in Upstate New York. The average factory town vote shift away from Democrats was minus 263,489 votes.
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 10:51 am
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All things in life right now are too expensive for the middle class to afford because of Democrat politicians’ policies. Blame the weather and Trump all you want, but what ia happening is not hard to understand.
Comment by Big Balloons Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 11:01 am
The Democrats openly embraced the Information Age and globalization. Both of these have produced tremendous benefits. However amidst the hoopla they forgot about factory workers displaced by automation and free trade. Trump filled the void, promising to fight for them and give them a voice. The racism, xenophobia, insurrection, and constant lies of Trump are overlooked by the white working class because they feel like someone is finally listening to them.
It will take a couple generations, at least, for Democrats to win these people back. They can start by dropping the condescension they often display toward the working class and start listening to their concerns.
Comment by Independent Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 11:01 am
Really crazy given that of the two parties Rs are the globalization free trade party. Hate sells tho
Comment by SWIL_Voter Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 11:05 am
Midterms, slightly mire than a year away, could be disaterous
Comment by Midterm Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 11:15 am
Fear mongering works. The GOP somehow convinced a huge swath of people to vote against their own self interest and it shows in those numbers.
Comment by Cool Papa Bell Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 11:17 am
To me the most aggravating thing that comes out of a politician’s mouth is the lie that oh we will just retrain these workers and give them a great job in some new industry
As if some 50 year old worker can be trained and placed in a new industry with benefits and better pay. Show me where that ever has happened
Comment by DuPage Saint Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 11:21 am
@Big Balloons
Which policies “democrats” policies are you talking about?
Comment by Chicago Blue Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 11:26 am
Making sure that veterans were included in contracting preferences and other set aside programs - and making certain that vets were aware of their inclusion - would go a long way in connecting Democrats to these voters.
Comment by Jocelyn Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 11:34 am
Jocelyn, those contracts are few and far between when there is zero industry to even make those set-aside programs. What these areas need is high-tech manufacturing (computer chips especially). That will get jobs back. Unfortunately, without public/private investment, these areas are going to keep declining.
Comment by AnonymousFool Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 11:39 am
Any day now we will all be enjoying the benefits of trickle down economics. /s
Comment by Chicago 20 Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 11:40 am
Large swaths of America still thinks that a “normal” economy is one where a person can roll out of high school with nearly zero skills and fall into a manufacturing job that is going to pay them enough to have a house, two kids and vacation every year.
That is the baseline expectation.
Never mind that the only time in history when that kind of life was possible was during a 25-year period of time from about 1955 through 1980 and came about as a result of astronomically rare historical trends converging. A world war wiping out almost all global manufacturing save for the US. The US being both physically untouched by the war and having a multi-decade head start on industrialization. Plus, a baby boom of workers born in the 1940’s to supply labor for this period of hyper industrial activity.
That era was a once-in-a-millenium situation that will never happen again in the lifetimes of anyone alive today. But rather than adjust to the new realities of global trade and technological advancement within manufacturing, blue collar america is impatiently waiting for the return of the big factories to save our small towns. And they are extremely angry that neither political party has been able to return the US to this utopia.
So the result is anger. This situation has got to be someone’s fault. And rather than embracing the change and finding a way to adapt to the new realities of the post-NAFTA american economy, they will simply continue to complain and vote for whichever politicians are the best channel for their anger.
Comment by sulla Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 11:40 am
Jocelyn - Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 11:34 am
From the producers of read the bill, comes read the law. Veterans preferences are already the law in Illinois.
Comment by Precinct Captain Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 11:42 am
President Biden is 79 in November. Will he run for re-election?
Comment by Al Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 11:52 am
Democrat support declines as union membership declines.
Therefore, support Republicans because only they will bring back unions, not.
Comment by Sir Reel Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 11:56 am
===Democrat politicians’ policies===
Facebook is down the dial, hang a Right, you’ll find it.
To the post,
The renewable energy options and manufacturing the hardware to those choices could be a very specific boon to blue collar manufacturing, and to energy jobs with new plants and stations going up to meet need.
A major problem is the market for energy and switching, even at a “lightning” pace is like… 2045… even with our own (Illinois’) move towards energy. Doesn’t mean it can’t happen at a good “political” pace… but under promise and over deliver thinking means in 11 months in Illinois, “where are we” in jobs come election time. That’s the problem, to short term political and long term policy.
Energy and natural resources (even recycling) are best bets to “manufacturing” type labor needs. Can that be pushed abd sold to offset this trend of the negative in this post in 11 months? Dunno.
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 11:59 am
Speaking from experience. We like our guns. We like our safe communities. We like it when our so-called union brothers and sisters support our union built products and services. We like legal immigration.
Comment by Blue Dog Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 12:00 pm
Too much to unpack in this. Economics is the contributing factor. If you can create jobs in those manufacturing towns again you can win them back but how are you going to do it?
Comment by Frank talks Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 12:02 pm
===We===
Speak for yourself, as you sound exactly like a Trump Republican.
Comment by Oswego Willy Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 12:03 pm
=President Biden is 79 in November.=
Trump will be 78 in 2024. What is your point? Not that it has ANYTHING to do with the post.
Comment by JS Mill Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 12:11 pm
===Speaking from experience.===
Grievances. That’s all you have. Apparently it’s enough.
Comment by 47th Ward Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 12:12 pm
The decline in factory town Dem support is not as pronounced in Illinois as in other Midwestern states since 2010 because IL did not let anti-union legislation through and those states did.
But there is definitely a sentiment in many small Midwest cities decimated by NAFTA and globalization where working class/middle class whites feel betrayed by both parties but at least the GOP is aligned with them on culture and gives them the chance to thumb their nose at the elites they think wrecked everything.
Trump won in the Midwest in 2016 in part by aping Obama’s positions that NAFTA and the Iraq War were screw-ups.
Also, an interesting thought experiment is what if Dems has used their big Senate majority in 2009-10 to pass the card check bill unions wanted.
I wonder where the party would be today and how much the 2010 electoral bloodbath could have been mitigated or prevented.
Comment by hisgirlfriday Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 12:17 pm
—–
It will take a couple generations, at least, for Democrats to win these people back. They can start by dropping the condescension they often display toward the working class and start listening to their concerns.
—–
like 30% of them believe that if they eat horse medicine they’ll be cured of covid and that a secret government agent talks to them in code over the internet about a cabal that drinks child blood.
Given that, how exactly do you propose anybody speaks to them without ‘condescension’? Do we have to give them special treatment as we already do for their far older bizarre beliefs?
Comment by dan l Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 12:18 pm
== Democrats openly embraced the Information Age and globalization…amidst the hoopla they forgot about factory workers displaced by automation and free trade ==
This nails it. (Conversely, the same factors have contributed to Dem growth in the burbs and among college educated voters.)
This is happening to left-leaning parties elsewhere for the same reasons. In the UK, Labour has lost its historic foothold in England’s northern industrial towns. Brexit there, Trump here.
Comment by Roman Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 12:20 pm
-Too much to unpack in this. Economics is the contributing factor. If you can create jobs in those manufacturing towns again you can win them back but how are you going to do it?-
Not wasting $6.4 Trillion on boondoggles in the Middle East is a good start.
Comment by Anonymous Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 12:21 pm
==Sulla== You nailed it. We boomers came along in an unnatural time. I would place the post war period 1945-1980 with 1970 our peak. Some factory jobs can be brought back with Federal incentives but automation reduced amount of labor needed. We have to embrace the new. Rivian is an example. I now have a lovely view of three wind turbines from my mailbox. No point in lamenting change. My lament is that they were made not made in Illinois.
Comment by Anotheretiree Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 12:22 pm
I can’t in good conscious vote for a Republican that believes Trump won in 2020 and I have to imagine that is the case for a lot of moderates. Biden and the Democratic party would be in a lot more trouble if Trump accepted defeat in 2020.
Comment by Chicagonk Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 12:24 pm
Illinois Dems are doing a bit? better at least than the other states, yeah.
Places like Rockford or Peoria aren’t exactly doing great, but they haven’t shifted *that* much since 2012 all told.
I don’t think a Dem is gonna win Macon County though anytime soon. Let alone Vermillion. Decatur and Danville are sadly very much in decline.
Comment by Nick Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 12:26 pm
….Rivian is an example. Yes indeed. My point exactly.
Comment by Blue Dog Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 12:26 pm
“We like our guns. We like our safe communities.”
Anyone else notice the irony here?
Comment by All this Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 12:29 pm
There is a lot manufacturing coming on-line over the next few years. Look at the Rivan plant in Normal or what may happen in Belvidere with Stellantis. There are many other plants that still operate. However these plants operate at a small fraction of the employees they did 30 to 40 years ago. They also decided to get rid of union protections and cut pay by a lot even in Illinois. Don’t forget that many of them export overseas at a high premium so trying to stop cheap imports cuts off our valuable exports to the rest of the world including China. Also, don’t forget our farmers export a lot of products to China. Be careful of who we upset. Workers need to undersand that.
Comment by Publius Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 12:31 pm
-We like our guns. We like our safe communities-
It’s not like NRA members are liberating Nike stories. Just saying.
Comment by NRA Member Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 12:34 pm
@NRA Member
How many Nikes were murdered in the Nike stores? There was a another school shooting in Texas yesterday that I’m sure you missed.
Comment by Chicago Blue Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 12:47 pm
All This– Yes.
Comment by Cheryl44 Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 12:49 pm
Just wondering how many progressives out there eating their Oreos and driving their Kias.
Comment by Blue Dog Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 12:52 pm
== Just wondering how many progressives out there eating their Oreos and driving their Kias.==
The Nabisco strike ended a couple weeks ago but my whole township Dem committee observed the boycott. Kellogg next
Comment by SWIL_Voter Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 12:56 pm
“It’s not like NRA members are liberating Nike stories. Just saying.”
Yeah they’re just buying Wayne LaPierre a 3rd yacht and his 60th $10k suit. Important, patriotic work.
Nobody is coming for your guns, partly because the legal framework to even attempt to do that will never exist in our lifetimes given the precedent and makeup of the federal courts, and partly because the number of “gun grabbers” in the party is seriously overestimated by people outside it. But the NRA won’t tell you that, because it wants your money.
Comment by Larry Bowa Jr. Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 12:59 pm
—–
Just wondering how many progressives out there eating their Oreos and driving their Kias.
—–
I drive a subaru, thank you.
Comment by dan l Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 12:59 pm
===we will just retrain these workers and give them a great job in some new industry===
Was watching a PBS documentary on the Luddites (English textile workers who broke automated looms that threw them out of work). Their conclusion was that tech advances can bring wealth and jobs to some, mostly owners, but there are losers and those effects can last far longer than one might think (in this case, 50+ years for recovery of jobs due to other industries appearing). Proves the case that the free market is insufficient and sufficient government intervention may be needed to help those left behind.
Comment by Jibba Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 12:59 pm
===eating their Oreos and driving their Kias.===
Do you make your own shoes? Unless you’re walking around barefoot, stop with the cheap sloganeering.
Comment by 47th Ward Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 1:04 pm
I drive a kia, but that is because I cannot stand the look of a prius.
Comment by AnonymousFool Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 1:12 pm
Who doesn’t like oreos
Comment by Nick Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 1:13 pm
“Just wondering how many progressives out there eating their Oreos and driving their Kias.”
Congratulations for identifying the gravest crisis facing our state and nation.
– MrJM
Comment by MisterJayEm Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 1:48 pm
- Anyone else notice the irony here? -
Lots o guns in rural areas, yet very little violent crime, why is that?
-shooting in Texas yesterday that I’m sure you missed.-
Did the shooter possess a concealed carry permit, NRA card? No? Imagine that.
Comment by Birthday Boy Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 1:49 pm
Lots of good points in the article and comments. Thank you. This is a problem for the Democrats that defies an easy solution. I worry about 2024. I don’t have an issue with a GOP president but I have a huge fear of another Trump presidency.
Comment by Original Rambler Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 1:53 pm
== Did the shooter possess a concealed carry permit==
Texas doesn’t require permits.
Comment by Venia Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 2:26 pm
Republicans are not rural communities’ friends (see the last two GOP presidents/recessions and Rauner). Hope one day many can see they’re being hustled for votes—look at the way Rauner dressed and talked. Their fear and hatred are exploited for the gain of the Ken Griffins of Illinois and America. The entire Trump thing is one big pander. It’s not surprising that Trump’s biggest “accomplishments” are massive tax cuts benefiting the richest and deregulation.
Comment by Grandson of Man Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 2:30 pm
“Lots o guns in rural areas, yet very little violent crime, why is that?”
Lots o guns in urban areas yet lots of violent crime, why is that?
Comment by Fly like an eagle Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 2:30 pm
=== As if some 50 year old worker can be trained and placed in a new industry with benefits and better pay.===
Lots of new (and not so new)industries that pay great and require training. 50year olds are trainable. Why wouldn’t they be?
Comment by Da Big Bad Wolf Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 2:46 pm
As a resident of such a “factory town”, it hurt Team Blue badly down in my area of the state (Madison County).
Comment by Justin Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 2:58 pm
==Sulla== You nailed it. We boomers came along in an unnatural time. I would place the post war period 1945-1980 with 1970 our peak.
Maybe it wasn’t the end of the war period at all. Maybe there was some kind of voodoo going on. /s
Comment by Earnest Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 4:05 pm
-Lots o guns in urban areas yet lots of violent crime, why is that? -
Sound like a people problem to me. Are those urban guns legally owned?
Comment by The Mayors Hairdresser Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 5:04 pm
Sulla hit the nail on the head. You have people in so many of these communities that feel they are “owed” that opportunity. Coming from Michigan, I can’t tell you how many friends/family members came up where Grandpa worked for Ford/GM/Chrysler (and the UAW), and then dad did…but now wait, I have to compete with Korean cars? Cars made in Ireland? Most of the vehicle built in Monterrey or Oshawa? Where’s my $80K a year job with no pay in for healthcare? I need my F150, my boat and my place “up north” - all on my HS education. That world simply doesn’t exist any more, but you have so many in these places that feel they are entitled to it because it’s what they grew up around. The reality is, those jobs don’t exist any more - at least not in the droves that seem to be promised by both parties cycle after cycle. And nobody wants to hear that Bobby has to work at Taco Bell, because Taco Bell is the only job in town your qualified to have. I hope we can invest more in training and education - the trades especially like HVACH and green energy, where there is tremendous opportunity. But you’re going to have a hard time taking 1,000 workers out of a factory and converting them all to HVACR techs or solar panel installers.
Comment by Just a guy Thursday, Oct 7, 21 @ 7:03 pm
The Rust Belt factory job issue is less about NAFTA/right to work and more about China’s entrance into the WTO and trade practices. The opioid epidemic also has an indirect China connection that is not a secret in these towns.
Trump owned the tough on China brand and (in part) beat that drum to victory through the rust belt in 2016. Democrats under Biden are not noticeably lapsing Trump’s trade and military approach to China. We learned this week that they are leveraging to enforce Trump’s trade deal and that the Marines Trump secretly put in Taiwan are being kept there by Biden.
Comment by Base 4 Friday, Oct 8, 21 @ 12:03 am
“ All things in life right now are too expensive for the middle class to afford because of Democrat politicians’ policies.”
I don’t see Democrats pushing anti union policies.
Comment by Sling Friday, Oct 8, 21 @ 6:33 am
===But you’re going to have a hard time taking 1,000 workers out of a factory and converting them all to HVACR techs or solar panel installers.===
With respect, I disagree. If you let people collect unemployment while they train for new positions people will do so. If you offer scholarships in depressed areas for training for new jobs people will apply. There are many one company towns that have been devastated and could use training initiatives. The money spent will come back when people find work and pay their taxes.
Comment by Da Big Bad Wolf Friday, Oct 8, 21 @ 6:40 am
- I don’t see Democrats pushing anti union policies.-
And when the costs of production go up, prices go up, then those at the bottom are just as bad off. Indian and Chinese kids are taking advantage of our higher education system, excelling, then taking the high paying jobs because our kids are too worried about feelings.
Comment by The Mayors Hairdresser Friday, Oct 8, 21 @ 8:04 am
=== taking advantage of our higher education system, excelling, then…===
… leaving the country.
I know “immigrants” and “non-whites” are the blame for everything.
===And when the costs of production go up, prices go up, then those at the bottom are just as bad off.===
No, when wages do go up, spending increases and like during the pandemic, the unemployed weren’t “saving” the extra UI money, they were spending and saving the economy as economist hoped.
Lower wages, non-union wages are meant to keep people down, sometimes in ways where workers can’t even afford the item they are help manufacturing… which is deemed “a middle class necessity”
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Oct 8, 21 @ 8:14 am
I’m not blaming them for anything, they are the smart ones, and many stay here because the money is here. You really should get out more OW.
Comment by The Mayors Hairdresser Friday, Oct 8, 21 @ 8:21 am
=== You really should get out more===
Anecdotal is not data, no matter what you “see”
Also, look at UIUC when it comes to foreign students and those same students taking seats and slots from worthy Illinois students. Why? Why do you think taking a foreign student over an equally qualified Illinois resident is happening?
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Oct 8, 21 @ 8:23 am
===And when the costs of production go up, prices go up, then those at the bottom are just as bad off.===
If you can make a widget and get $20 dollars for it even if labor is low why would you ask for $10? The market determines the price.
===Indian and Chinese kids are taking advantage of our higher education system, excelling, then taking the high paying jobs because our kids are too worried about feelings.===
You’re saying kids are turning down jobs because of “feelings?”
What?
Comment by 17% Solution Tuesday, Oct 12, 21 @ 9:08 am