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* Tribune…
Illinois Democrats have unveiled a revised congressional map that sets up the potential for a second Latino district, two primary matchups featuring Republican incumbents and, surprisingly, a one-on-one primary battle between suburban Democratic incumbents. […]
Reflecting a growing Latino population in the state, the new map would create an opportunity for a second Latino district in Illinois along with the 4th District now held by U.S. Rep. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia.
Garcia’s current district would see much of its Northwest Side Latino population moved into a redrawn open 3rd District seat that stretches into the western suburbs and is designed to capture growth in the Latino community in Cook and DuPage county suburbs.
One prominent resident of the proposed 3rd District is Chicago Ald. Gilbert Villegas, 36th, who chairs the City Council Latino Caucus. On Sunday, Villegas and the 13-member Latino Caucus issued a statement urging Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker to sign the revised map. The caucus is also seeking greater representation in the redrawing of aldermanic boundaries.
* WBEZ…
A new east-west district currently lacking an incumbent connects Latino populations in Logan Square on Chicago’s Northwest Side and West Chicago in the western suburbs. That proposed district is nearly 44% Latino compared to 43% white, according to legislative data showing voting-age constituents. Only the 4th Congressional District now held by U.S. Rep. Jesus “Chuy” Garcia, D-Chicago, has a higher concentration of Latino voters, standing at 62% on the new map.
“The changes made in this updated congressional map will help ensure the diversity of Illinois is reflected in Washington,” said state Sen. Omar Aquino, D-Chicago, chair of the Senate Redistricting Committee. “We appreciate the many advocacy groups and individuals that continue to guide our work with passion and dedication, as we remain focused on the creation of a fair map that will provide equal representation for all.”
Aquino, who lists his residence in the new 3rd Congressional District, said he has not ruled out a potential bid for that seat assuming this latest map isn’t revised a third time before a possible vote. “It’s a serious conversation I’d need to have with my family,” he said.
* Likely accurate…
The draft map, which was released late Saturday afternoon, isn’t final. Sources close to the process say they expect a few more revisions, though the new Latino district will stand. The Democratic-led General Assembly votes on it this week during the scheduled veto session.
* Some quick points from Lynn Sweet…
NEWMAN/CASTEN — State Democratic legislative mapmakers didn’t care if they sparked an intra-party fight by throwing Newman, a progressive from LaGrange, and Casten, a centrist from Downers Grove, in the same district since it will not impact the Democratic bottom line.
Casten represents the current 6th District. The new 6th, anchored in the western suburbs, takes away Newman’s Southwest Side Chicago and southwest suburban political base.
President Joe Biden won the new 6th by about 12 points, according to an analysis by Scott Kennedy’s Illinois Election Data operation. Casten had $1,049,641 cash-on-hand as of Sept. 30, according to the Federal Election Commission, compared to $437,873 for Newman. […]
UNDERWOOD SAFER: Democrat Rep. Lauren Underwood of Naperville is one of the few Black members of Congress who won in a majority white district. She only won by a point in 2020. This second map is improved for her because it gets rid of Republican McHenry County.
BLACK DISTRICTS: The loss of Black population in Illinois means fewer Black residents in the three districts — all Democratic — created to yield Black lawmakers. Voting-age population is 50.13% in Rep. Bobby Rush’s 1st; 43.75% in Rep. Robin Kelly’s 2nd and only 40.05 % in Rep. Danny Davis’ 7th.
* There might possibly be more than two Democratic primary candidates in that new 6th District…
According to Calabrese, it is “hard to say what” this latest proposed map would mean for former Rep. Dan Lipinski (D-IL), a conservative Democrat who was ousted by Newman in the 2020 primary. Lipinski is reportedly considering a primary bid to reclaim his seat.
“He could do well in a three-way Democratic primary,” Calabrese said. “Split the liberal vote [between Newman and Casten] and he can win the moderate vote. Still lots of moderate Democrats in the district.”
* Depending on the intensity of the national mood, a Newman primary victory might also draw a serious GOP challenger…
Here is the past electoral performance for the 2nd newly proposed congressional districts released by the ILGA. If you'd like to compare them to the current map you can find that here:https://t.co/D8IGJjgQIh pic.twitter.com/6i74xMolYF
— IL Election Data (@ILElectionData) October 23, 2021
* Republicans mad, says WGLT…
Republican incumbents Darin LaHood and Adam Kinzinger would be shoved into the same congressional district under an updated version of the redistricting map released Saturday.
The map, drawn by Illinois Democrats, is different than the one released Aug. 15. That first draft was skewered by Republicans who called it the “Nancy Pelosi protection plan” and even by some Democrats, who wanted their party to protect their House majority more aggressively. […]
Saturday’s map also makes it likely U.S. Rep. Rodney Davis would no longer represent any portion of Bloomington-Normal in the House. Davis, a Republican from Taylorville, would be placed into the new 15th Congressional District.
It’s unclear if Davis will seek re-election to that seat or possibly run for governor.
* More angry Republicans…
Illinois GOP spokesman Joe Hackler on Sunday called the latest maps an “even more aggressive” plan to protect Democrats.
“As we said for the last version of the map, Illinois Democrats, led by Gov. J.B. Pritzker, have made it clear that they are willing to disenfranchise Illinois voters and break repeated campaign promises to do the bidding of (House Speaker) Nancy Pelosi and (Washington) D.C. power brokers,” Hackler said in an email.
* News-Gazette…
(O)n Saturday, the Democrats brought out a new map, this one placing [US Rep. Mary Miller] in the same district as another Republican: Rep. Mike Bost of Murphysboro, who has been in Congress since 2015 and in the Legislature for 10 years before that. […]
In Saturday’s proposed remap, Miller goes into a mammoth district that includes almost all of Illinois south of Interstate 70. It appears to include all or parts of 34 of Illinois’ 102 counties, the largest of them in the Metro East area across the river from St. Louis, where Bost is well known and she isn’t.
Miller would lose Danville and Charleston-Mattoon, two of the larger urban areas in her current district.
She’s not a big campaign fundraiser. For the quarter recently ended, she brought in about $250,000, a good haul for her but a modest sum for others. LaHood, for example, raised $490,000 in that period. Davis collected $477,000 and Kinzinger brought in $393,000. Only Bost brought in less, about $177,000.
Unlike most veteran members of Congress, Miller received the majority of her campaign contributions from individuals ($204,458) rather than political action committees ($46,084).
* WLDS…
As for local representatives in this current iteration of the maps, Darin LaHood’s 18th District goes away. He is now drawn into a proposed 16th District that treks him northward into the same district with Adam Kinzinger.
Current 13th District Congressman Rodney Davis would take over the entire listening area in the proposed 15th District. The new 15th district stretches from Illinois’ western and eastern borders. Davis’ district would have over 20 counties and stretch from the Metro East in the south to just south of the Quad Cities in the north.
He would be drawn out of the 13th District, which would encompass every major city in Central Illinois from Alton to Champaign. The 13th would be vacant next year and likely go to Democratic Challenger Nikki Budzinski.
* Related…
* Latino aldermen want new Chicago City Council ward map to reflect population shift
* Chicago gets first look at possible new ward map
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Oct 25, 21 @ 10:24 am
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Previous Post: Why the May state redistricting plan was rejected, and what comes next
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I like how it’s still been called a Pelosi protection plan even though a central part of her speakership election in 2019 was contingent upon her promising that she wouldn’t seek the speakership after 2022. In other words, there’ll be a new speaker in 2023 no matter who wins the midterms.
Comment by TJ Monday, Oct 25, 21 @ 10:38 am
Would love to get your take on candidates and the lay of the land for the new 17. So far just two — Angie from Rock Island and Jonathan from Rockford, right?
Comment by Matthew Monday, Oct 25, 21 @ 10:41 am
more intel on Newman needed. why do they keep putting her in a place where she will likely have trouble? what does this say about her?
Comment by Amalia Monday, Oct 25, 21 @ 10:41 am
===what does this say about her?===
She’s a freshman.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Oct 25, 21 @ 10:44 am
By keeping Danny Davis’ district in tact instead of combining it w/ Chuy’s district and dividing it in two to create 2 Latino districts, they missed an opportunity to possibly create a 3rd Latino district along the Fox River from Elgin-Aurora-Joliet. That district would be over 1/3 Latino.
Comment by City Zen Monday, Oct 25, 21 @ 10:50 am
Did Sweet really call Casten a centrist? The guy regularly forces floor votes on noncontroversial bills
Comment by Huh? Monday, Oct 25, 21 @ 10:50 am
But why did Casten draw the short straw? So odd that this happened.
But for sure a Casten Newman primary will be TONS of fun to watch.
If Lip gets in, will the pressure be on MN to drop out to avoid a 3-way? Hard to see that, but hard to see Casten dropping out either. Unless Biden gives him some plum job.
Comment by Fav Human Monday, Oct 25, 21 @ 10:51 am
Two problems with that analysis:
1) Casten is actually, as Lynn Sweet notes above, a centrist, and
2) DuPage Democrats have no use for anti-choice candidates. (If they could tolerate that, then they would have taken the politically easier path of being centrist Republicans.)
#IMHO #YMMV #Etc
– MrJM
Comment by MisterJayEm Monday, Oct 25, 21 @ 10:54 am
Let me know when there is “White Smoke”
Comment by Publius Monday, Oct 25, 21 @ 11:02 am
dang. i was really hoping for newman/kinziger. i guess whiners really do get their way these days.
Comment by ;) Monday, Oct 25, 21 @ 11:24 am
Amazing Sean Casten can say publicly that bipartisanship is overrated and still be labeled a centrist.
He is ranked as the 89th most progressive Democrat in the House
Marie Newman is ranked #3
https://progressivepunch.org/scores.htm?house=house
Comment by Lucky Pierre Monday, Oct 25, 21 @ 11:30 am
LP, you just undercut your own argument. There are 220 Democrats in the US House, so he’s near the middle. She ain’t.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Oct 25, 21 @ 11:34 am
Interestingly, AOC made a big deal in her primary about the incumbent not representing the district. She is a BIT more progressive than he was (about 15 members so) but not like Jan S progressive.
Jan S dropped from single digits to 20…..
Comment by Fav Human Monday, Oct 25, 21 @ 11:39 am
=LP, you just undercut your own argument=
Rich - you forgot “again”
Comment by Joe Bidenopolous Monday, Oct 25, 21 @ 11:41 am
Do you believe there is a significant difference between Sean Casten’s 97.2% lifetime progressive rating and Marie Newman’s 99.5%.
The centrists like Cheri Bustos had a 58% rating, Brad Schneider 62% and Bill Foster 68% on crucial progressive votes
Comment by Lucky Pierre Monday, Oct 25, 21 @ 11:50 am
To say that Casten is a centrist amongst his party in DC isn’t saying much. In recent years DC has cast out the “blue dog” dems (Lipinski being one of them). No way is Casten a centrist when framed against the general left-to-right political spectrum.
Comment by Mary Monday, Oct 25, 21 @ 12:29 pm
==Amazing Sean Casten can say publicly that bipartisanship is overrated and still be labeled a centrist.==
Amazing that you think anyone here is going to buy your crocodile tears about “centrism”.
Comment by Arsenal Monday, Oct 25, 21 @ 12:30 pm
Unless I missed it, the SJR hasn’t reported a word on this map yet. On the other hand, given their recent redistributing coverage, maybe that’s for the best.
Comment by Unedited Monday, Oct 25, 21 @ 12:32 pm
I don’t care how “centrist” Sean Casten is or isn’t, but I feel sorry for the guy. Democrats in IL have been trying to knock out that “Peter Roskam seat” for years, Casten finally picks the lock, and his reward is to see his district dismantled. Ouch. But, that’s politics I guess. I hope somebody somewhere gives him a good landing spot, if he goes up against Newman or Lipinski and loses.
Comment by ZC Monday, Oct 25, 21 @ 12:47 pm
He can always sell Tesla’s
Comment by Lucky Pierre Monday, Oct 25, 21 @ 12:50 pm
** DC has cast out the “blue dog” dems (Lipinski being one of them). **
pretty sure it was Chicago suburbanites the cast out Lipinski, not DC.
Comment by SaulGoodman Monday, Oct 25, 21 @ 12:54 pm
Who will stand up for the white male democrats it’s an outrage harumph harumph sn/
Comment by Frank talks Monday, Oct 25, 21 @ 1:39 pm
Great stuff in hashing this out.
Between the Kinzinger/LaHood pairing to the Newman/Casten matchup, I too would’ve enjoyed the Newman-Kinzinger match, allowing the freshman Dem who seemingly doesn’t understand seniority to this exercise and Kinzinger being “allowed” to seethe runner with the most light at the end.
I’ll wait and watch, thanks, to see the ending of these signals, counter moves, and final answers of the map. Fascinating.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Oct 25, 21 @ 2:11 pm
Quick thought FERC could have 5 commissioners presently there are only 4 probably be a good soft spot for Casten to land considering he did an actual rap about FERC on the Hiuse floor.
Comment by Frank talks Monday, Oct 25, 21 @ 2:35 pm
I don’t think you can find many issue on which Casten and Newman differ, but the dynamics of the race are going to make him the more moderate candidate. Watch for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to become an issue. There is a growing Arab population in the Cook portion of the new district and Newman stood with them in opposing funding for Israel’s iron dome missile system. And Newman has a ton of progressive street cred, both national and locally, from taking out Lipinski. The lefty activists and small dollar contributions are going to naturally gravitate towards her. Casten might be able to raise more cash from business groups and pro-Israel PAC’s. This is really going to be fun to watch.
Comment by Roman Monday, Oct 25, 21 @ 3:31 pm