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* My syndicated newspaper column takes a look at some curious new developments…

The 2008 general election is almost nine months away, but you don’t have to listen too closely to hear some of the first shots of the 2010 governor’s race being fired.

The column goes on to discuss Paul Vallas poking his head up a while back, Joe Birkett’s press conference on ending the death penalty moratorium and Comptroller Dan Hynes’ editorial board tour, which was ostensibly about all the red ink in the budget…

If you think I’m being too cynical about Hynes’ motives, you should also know that Hynes went to the editorial boards armed with statistics showing that the number of uninsured Illinoisans did not decrease at all between 2003 and 2006, despite the money and effort expended by Blagojevich (Barack Obama’s presidential campaign may not have appreciated that shot, considering Obama’s claim to have insured so many people here, but the point has so far been lost in the shuffle). Hynes even talked about the decreases in higher education spending while at the Sun-Times editorial board meeting. This was obviously more than a budget horrors tour.

It concludes…

President George W. Bush has been so unpopular that candidates started actively and openly campaigning to replace him two years before the 2008 election. People wanted him gone, and that partially explains the record turnout by primary and caucus voters in both parties in several states to date. Blagojevich’s unpopularity rivals that of Bush’s, and the same early campaign scenario looks to be playing out here.

The federal corruption trial of Blagojevich fundraiser and adviser Tony Rezko will most likely only heighten interest and activity, particularly now that we know an FBI mole will testify to seeing one of the governor’s aides take a wad of cash at Rezko’s office. The U.S. Attorney’s office claims Rezko had weekly meetings with the governor’s patronage chief, and the feds have announced that Blagojevich administration “insiders” will testify at Rezko’s trial.

Discuss.

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Feb 19, 08 @ 11:43 am

Comments

2010 cannot come too soon for me. I just wonder if we’ll adjourn the 2008 session by then.

Comment by the Other Anonymous Tuesday, Feb 19, 08 @ 11:46 am
It sounds to me like Hynes is laying the appropriate ground work to run. His comments on the fiscal condition of the state are certainly accurate and factual. The bigger question is, “what does Lisa want?”

Comment by one of the 35 Tuesday, Feb 19, 08 @ 12:09 pm
It sounds to me like Hynes is laying the appropriate ground work to run. His comments on the fiscal condition of the state are certainly accurate and factual. The bigger question is, “what does Lisa want?”

I say she doesn’t want the Govs office. It will be tough against Quinn, Hynes, and whomever comes out fo the woodwork. Besides, who would wnat to inherit Illinois in its current fiscal state that this governor has caused? However, I think she will keep her foot in the door, just to spook the Gov enough to appoint her. Good possibility Illinois will have an open US senate seat, Gov has appointment power, and if he doesnt appoint himself (which is a rampant rumor at the moment, that I do NOT subscribe to), I bet the GOv thinks of appointing her to Obamas seat just to get her out fo the mix. God help us all. Obama scares me to death. I know this a rant, but as a republican, I would gladly give the presidency to Hillary, and not risk the run off between McCain and Obama. THats how much he scares me. The Dems will clean up in congress, and with him being able to ram anything through, I dont want half or more of check to go to the gov, and dont even get me started on his views on national defense.

Comment by Moderate REpub Tuesday, Feb 19, 08 @ 12:27 pm
And what’s Alexi going to do. Being state Treasurer
has to be among the most boring jobs in government.

Should Obama win next November, wouldn’t Obama pal
Alexi be well-positioned to ride his coattails
in a 2010 gubernatorial primary. Dan Hynes just seems a bit, well, boring….And Lisa may have
spent enough time in Illinois state government
to be yearning for the national scene should that
be an option.

Comment by Cassandra Tuesday, Feb 19, 08 @ 12:34 pm
Ha!

President Bush is usually at twice the popularity of our beleaguered governor.

What will the Democrats do when Bush is gone? Who will they blame then?

Comment by Centrino Tuesday, Feb 19, 08 @ 12:36 pm
First, only the August Dem. convention will ring-down the curtain on the spring session, just like last time.

Second, it seems to me that even a ham sandwich would beat Rod in any one-on-one matchup, so he should want the field as wide as possible hoping to eek-out a bare plurality. Of course, that assumes that Rod is rational, and….

The question for Lisa as well as all the others (let’s not forget Meeks) is who has the best shot at the plurality? Lisa and Dan seem best positioned in terms of $$ and organization. I’m thinking Alexi would rather convince Jesse to retire and run for that.

Comment by David Starrett Tuesday, Feb 19, 08 @ 1:00 pm
I think once someone has gone for one of the big jobs — governor, senator — they never stop angling for it. Pat Quinn’s a case in point.

If Obama wins, I’m curious as to who Blago would try to get out of the way with the Senate appointment.

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Feb 19, 08 @ 1:10 pm
>> And what’s Alexi going to do. Being state Treasurer
>> has to be among the most boring jobs in government.

Ah.

Spoken by someone who has never worked in Illinois government.

Comment by Macbeth Tuesday, Feb 19, 08 @ 1:17 pm
In the wake of an Obama victory the Black community would be fired-up in a way that it hasn’t been since Harold Washington. In that environment any Black candidate (Meeks again comes to mind) would be a serious threat to all the others. If such a candidate emerges, only Rod is positioned to eliminate them in advance while also scoring points among those voters.

Comment by David Starrett Tuesday, Feb 19, 08 @ 1:24 pm
all candidates for governor should urge that the fiscal crisis be fixed now, ASAP. Otherwise, the next governor is a one termer for daring to address the revenues problem. Ogilvie was one of the best governors that this state ever had, and his reastructuring of state government agencies is still largely what we have today. But the voters threw him out for leading the charge for the new state income tax.

The one exception to this concern is the simple broadening of the sales tax to many services. This is not a tax increase per se, and restores the sales tax onto the economic realities of today’s society. A new governor could explain why this was necessary to a pubic confronting a virtually bankrupt state government.

Will our current governor do this? We may be a smoke free state now, but I still anticipate more “smoke and mirrors” tomorrow as part of the announced proposed budget for FY 09…

Comment by Capitol View Tuesday, Feb 19, 08 @ 1:52 pm
I will be appointing Frank Kruesi as governor in 2010, his campaign paid for via my TIF slush fund. Now go back to sleep!

Comment by Hizzoner Tuesday, Feb 19, 08 @ 1:55 pm
Apples and oranges, Sir!

Presidents have term limits, Illinois governors don’t. Regardless of how powerful or how successful a president is, their second term signals a new race. It doesn’t matter how unpopular the president is. There was a big race in 1988, even though Reagan was hugely popular; nine candidates on the Democratic side, nine on the Republican side - 18 total!

Even with GHW Bush and Carter who lost re-election in huge ways, didn’t confront a large slate of opposition. So even weak presidents on their way out the door, who are lame ducks but do not know it, do not encounter stiff opposition. Bush was unopposed in 1992 and Kennedy was a goner by Spring 1980, losing to the Iran Hostage Crisis no one foresaw that rallied Democrats to Carter.

If anything, what we have seen over the past thirty years dispells this theory, doesn’t it? In 1992 and 1980, only Carter had a credible challenge due to his unpopularity at the time of Kennedy’s announcement. Bush was huge during the 1992 primary season, scaring Cuomo, Rockefeller, and leaving the race to second stringers like Clinton to win the nomination.

So it only makes sense to see George W. Bush as a bystander politically since the twenty-second amendment kicked in January 2005. Presidential popularity is a moot point now just as it was during the election years of 2000 and 1988 when considering the number of political opponents running. Clinton wasn’t seen by Gore to be a political plus in 2000 and McCain isn’t Bush’s VP, (he is actually Bush’s political opponent).

But Illinois governors are not term limited, so their popularity and power can be measured by how soon they stir political opposition for the next election. Blagojevich is a lame duck and has been quacking since last year. George Ryan was a lame duck during his only term when scandal news became insurmountable politically. Dan Walker was a lame duck within his only term too.

So it is quite useful to consider this theory regarding Illinois governors, or any elected executive office holder not term limited. The Republicans who do not hold the Governorship will probably parade statewide for free press opportunities, and Democrats will do likewise as long as they see Blagojevich as irrelevant politically as he currently is.

Comment by VanillaMan Tuesday, Feb 19, 08 @ 2:01 pm
===There was a big race in 1988, even though Reagan was hugely popular===

Actually, Reagan’s popularity didn’t start to regain its footing until after the fall campaign was in full swing. Remember that Iran-Contra thing in 1987?

Also, I do not believe that the 88 campaign started in earnest with so many candidates doing so much visibile campaigning in 1986.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Feb 19, 08 @ 2:04 pm
The more the merrier for the governor. He has a record of accomplishments to run on and his successes have improved the lives of many who live in this state. Besides, who will have the guts to run against him? He can clearly raise money, and his campaign operation is second to none. Losers in this promary would be done for good — and it wont be Rod.

Comment by Anon Tuesday, Feb 19, 08 @ 2:07 pm
“He can clearly raise money” ?? Who in their right mind will want to contribute to what has become his legal defense fund?

Comment by David Starrett Tuesday, Feb 19, 08 @ 2:27 pm
I am not sure that Harold Washington had any real effect on the black community in terms of gonig after other elected offices, so I can’t see an Obama victory for president inspiring a victory by Meeks, et al for Governor,

Comment by paddyrollingstone Tuesday, Feb 19, 08 @ 2:28 pm
It’s all the new and young voters I’m thinking of; there is that parallel. …And Meeks (or someone similar) doesn’t actually have to win the primary (though in a crowded field it might just be possible) just be a palpable threat. Enough of one to motivate the Gov. to send him to DC. The Madigans should like that idea too, and the GA will have to confirm the appointment.

Comment by David Starrett Tuesday, Feb 19, 08 @ 2:41 pm
What if Sen. Obama does not get the prize and decides to forgo any possible VP request. Is it possible he would run for Governor? A shoo-in, and based on Blago the ______ (fill in the blank), he would have no where to go but up in esteem. Governors get elected to President far, far, far more than Senators who have too much baggage to defend against in elections.

Comment by Whaddabout 'dis? Tuesday, Feb 19, 08 @ 2:42 pm
Rich’s column is on the money, it is get ready for 2010 here in Illinois. Vallas is going to run, people close to him are already saying it.

I predict that he will do just as well as Rudy Guiliani did in Florida. Like Rudy, Paul Vallas’ moment has passed. Where’s he going to get any money? The big guns will have another candidate in the race and the anti-establishment liberals will go with Pat Quinn. I like Paul Vallas, voted for him last time - but I just don’t see how he can run in this field.

Comment by Napoleon has left the building Tuesday, Feb 19, 08 @ 2:46 pm
Whaddabout makes an interesting point. It’s nearly certain that we’re about to elect president the first sitting U.S. Senator since JFK and only the second since Warren Harding.

Comment by wordslinger Tuesday, Feb 19, 08 @ 2:49 pm
=== Governors get elected to President far, far, far more than Senators who have too much baggage to defend against in elections.===

Considering that every move he and his appointees made would be watched by the FBI, I’m not sure being governor of this particular state is such a great setup for a preznit run.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Feb 19, 08 @ 2:49 pm
Whaddbout: Interesting thought. I have no clue whether Barak would have the least interest in stepping-back into the fiscal and political mess that is State government right now. He might, but it’ll take more that vision to dig us out of this. He might end-up not-so-popular by the end. At this point, it’s virtual certainty that the next President will be coming from the Senate, anyway.

Comment by David Starrett Tuesday, Feb 19, 08 @ 2:56 pm
alexi, lisa, hynes, quinn, vallas not a one strikes as a big change from the g-rod, their could be enough of a backlash for a republican to become relevant in a statewide race (birkett being most likely). if i were g-rod, i’d appoint alexi for his cash on hand alone, seeing him as the most dangerous, then when/if, he gets his federal problems resolved, the battle between the rest (lisa, hynes, quinn) opens the door for birkett.

Comment by dem's Tuesday, Feb 19, 08 @ 2:56 pm
Record of accomplishments? Successes? Improved lives? You can’t be talking about our governor.
Being able to sweet-talk people who want to do business with the state into giving you cash does NOT make you a good governor. It makes you a scheister. And tell all the people for signed up for All Kids and can’t get a docter to see their children, how he has improved their lives. His giveaways are all smoke and mirrors and the voters, state employees and the federales all know it.

Comment by Disgusted Tuesday, Feb 19, 08 @ 2:57 pm
The parallels between Blago and Bush are so eery it’s frightening. As related to this topic, both were re-elected by an electorate who pretty much regretted their actions after the votes were cast. But that’s America: caveat emptor. And boy, are we paying for both selections!

Last night, my mom told me she wished campaign time would be drastically cut. While her basic idea is good, even people who want to bring about change and want to run for altruistic reasons would have to declare and begin running for office at an early date. The state is in a bad enough way that people need to begin discussing their ideas for cleaning up the state and righting our financial ship. Someone without the name of Blagojevich, Madigan or Jones has to bring issues to the forefront.

IMHO, Alexi would be a great replacement for Obama should Obama win the presidency. Lisa, I think, would rather be the chief in Illinois, whereas Alexi would love the D.C. spotlight and has no wife or children to “tie him down”. He would be a fresh, independent voice from Illinois - a la Peter Fitzgerald - and could tell the D.C. establishment to stuff it. He has shown himself to be a good campaigner with new ideas and the ability to be a good policymaker. He can also fund his own campaign and raise money from all over, so the seat would be his for as long as he wanted.

Comment by Team Sleep Tuesday, Feb 19, 08 @ 3:06 pm
It’s not that appealing of a field, I’ll grant you that. Pat Quinn? Lord help us! Alexi-I-had-Obama’s-endorsement-and-a-bunch-of-money Giannoulis? I think not. Dan “Refrigerator Bulb” Hynes? Better suited to be Transportation Secretary under Obama. Paul “Fled to Philly” Vallas? Gimme a break. Put Lisa Madigan in that group and she’ll Anita Alvarez her way to a primary victory.

Comment by chiatty Tuesday, Feb 19, 08 @ 3:11 pm
David Starrett - Tuesday, Feb 19, 08 @ 2:27 pm:

“He can clearly raise money” ?? Who in their right mind will want to contribute to what has become his legal defense fund?

UNIONS and lots of them!!! You know what this Gov has done for the labor unions in this state? Just in state governoment? They have coded thousands of Merit Comp positions into Union positions. SEIU gave record numbers the past several years alone.

Comment by Moderate REpub Tuesday, Feb 19, 08 @ 3:34 pm
And let’s all remember that you should never bet against the Speaker.

Comment by one of the 35 Tuesday, Feb 19, 08 @ 3:49 pm
Moderate: can you say p-e-n-s-i-o-n-s?

Comment by David Starrett Tuesday, Feb 19, 08 @ 4:04 pm
Lisa Madigan for gov and Anita Alvarez for ag.

Comment by Joe T. from Chicago Tuesday, Feb 19, 08 @ 4:04 pm
If Obama becomes president, whom would Blago. appoint, to replace him, in the U.S. Senate? I think that he would appoint Att. Gen. Madigan. If that happens, Blago. would appoint her replacement, probably Cook Co. Sheriff Joe Dart. Todd Stroger would appoint his replacement.

Comment by PhilCollins Tuesday, Feb 19, 08 @ 4:29 pm
PhilCollins, we’ve had that question before. Twice, I think.

Also, if the guv would only give Tom Dart the IL Criminal Justice Info Authority spot after 2002, then I doubt he’d make Dart the AG now. They don’t get along any more.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Feb 19, 08 @ 4:31 pm
Too bad, really. Dart would make a fine AG.

Comment by David Starrett Tuesday, Feb 19, 08 @ 4:38 pm
On the other hand, Tom Dart (a Kinks fan like me) comes from the South side political culture. I first met him as a leg. asst. to Jeremiah Joyce. If Lisa is appointed to the Senate, maybe he could be part of a deal. I just don’t think Lisa gets the appointment in the first place.

Comment by David Starrett Tuesday, Feb 19, 08 @ 4:59 pm
One more office Birkett can run for and lose.

Comment by Loyal Whig Tuesday, Feb 19, 08 @ 9:39 pm