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* Lynn Sweet is right. The newly drawn 3rd CD could easily be won by a non-Latino if credible and capable Latino candidates battle it out in the primary…
It’s different for the new 3rd — with only a 43.75% Hispanic voting age population, it is barely a minority district. One estimate from a Democratic political operative — discounting for folks who can’t vote and youths who don’t vote — put the number of Hispanics who will actually vote in the new 3rd at 37%.
A Democratic primary with multiple Hispanics will divide the Hispanic vote, leaving the door wide open for a non-Hispanic candidate to claim the seat.
Three candidates are already mulling bids.
Ald. Gilbert Villegas, (36th) told Sun-Times City Hall reporter Fran Spielman on Monday he is “seriously considering” a bid.
Sun-Times politics writer Rachel Hinton reports that Rep. Delia Ramirez, D-Chicago, said in a statement she’s “carefully” considering a run for Congress. State Sen. Omar Aquino, D-Chicago, the chair of the Senate Redistricting Committee, is also expected to look at a run.
More are expected to jump in once the map is finalized. This could be a once-in-a-generation opportunity.
posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Oct 26, 21 @ 12:46 pm
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The 3rd CD is not solid Latino and can be easily fractioned if a Latino in the suburbs runs and a different kind of Latino from the city runs. Opening the door for someone else. Not to mention the weakening of the CVAP for the 4th CD that also puts that at risk. Would not be surprised if MALDEF sues for cracking.
Comment by Dale Tuesday, Oct 26, 21 @ 12:49 pm
==The 3rd CD is not solid Latino==
Unless they also map in Elgin and Aurora.
Comment by Lake Front Liberal Tuesday, Oct 26, 21 @ 12:53 pm
That’s a feature of the new 3rd, not a bug. The way it’s drawn, there will need to be a consensus candidate from the city or a non-Latino suburban candidate can win the primary.
Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Oct 26, 21 @ 12:56 pm
The spirit of Jason Gonzalez kind of vibe?
But in this case the packing will be by legit candidates outsmarting themselves so none win?
Comment by Oswego Willy Tuesday, Oct 26, 21 @ 12:58 pm
That’s EXACTLY what Chuy wants
Comment by Wow Tuesday, Oct 26, 21 @ 12:59 pm
== Not to mention the weakening of the CVAP for the 4th CD that also puts that at risk.==
Uh, bro, the new 4th is 62% Hispanic CVAP. I think Garcia will be just fine.
Comment by Boomerang Tuesday, Oct 26, 21 @ 12:59 pm
==the new 4th is 62% Hispanic CVAP==
That’s the VAP. The CVAP is closer to 50.6%
Comment by Dale Tuesday, Oct 26, 21 @ 1:02 pm
== That’s EXACTLY what Chuy wants.==
I guess you don’t know him. He’s always been for Hispanic empowerment. But he also saw that creating a second district with such low Hispanic CVAP was a false promise and would put incumbents at risk.
Comment by Boomerang Tuesday, Oct 26, 21 @ 1:02 pm
Pretty hard not to expect a LOT of people going for an open seat. Remember when Blago’s seat was open? And before that, when Blago got that seat?
And we will see something similar in about 10 years with Davis’ and Rush’s seat.
Comment by Fav Human Tuesday, Oct 26, 21 @ 1:04 pm
VAP = Voting Age Population (2020 Census Data)
CVAP = Citizens of Voting Age Population (2019 ACS Data)
Comment by Dale Tuesday, Oct 26, 21 @ 1:06 pm
==or a non-Latino suburban candidate can win ==
Thus the argument. Without adding more Latinos from Elgin and Aurora, this is not a safe Latino district.
Comment by Lake Front Liberal Tuesday, Oct 26, 21 @ 1:10 pm
===this is not a safe Latino district.===
It’s pretty safe if the Dem politicians can reach some kind of consensus, in much the same way that Gutierrez, a Puerto Rican American, was the first Latino Representative in a district with a heavy Mexican-American population. It’s kind of a north side vs. south side thing, and this new map alters the dynamic. A Latino can and likely will win, but the internal feuding has to end for that to happen.
Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Oct 26, 21 @ 1:24 pm
== but the internal feuding has to end for that to happen.==
Not so much feuding as ambition. And there’s plenty of that in that new district.
Comment by Boomerang Tuesday, Oct 26, 21 @ 1:38 pm
I got to see where the new 3rd C.D. is located.
Comment by Levois J Tuesday, Oct 26, 21 @ 1:40 pm
==It’s pretty safe if the Dems politicians can reach some kind of consensus==
That’s not how plurality districts work. If you have to rely on many “ifs”, then it’s not a real VRA protected district. Comparing this to Gutierrez and the north vs south considerations, the outcome was always going to be a Latino in that seat. This is a radically different scenario that does not come remotely close to guaranteeing a Latino in that new seat.
Comment by Lake Front Liberal Tuesday, Oct 26, 21 @ 1:43 pm
I don’t get the angst unless you think Chuy might be in trouble. This might not guarantee a Latino wins but at a minimum there will still be at least one Latino and another district the dems can pick up. And depending on who wins there could possibly be future primaries where they might have to run against a Latino in what might be in a growing Latino population (lots of maybe’s in that sentence). If they kept the status quo there probably wouldn’t be another Latino in Congress for another 10 years.
Comment by Been There Tuesday, Oct 26, 21 @ 2:00 pm
==I don’t get the angst unless you think Chuy might be in trouble==
A 50.6% Latino CVAP is too narrow of a margin for the only Latino district in the Midwest. Can Chuy survive a 50% CVAP? Perhaps, but will it be enough to guarantee a Latino elected PC (post Chuy)? That’s risky business. But risky enough to warrant the attention of advocate groups?
Comment by Dale Tuesday, Oct 26, 21 @ 2:12 pm
Gutierrez, a Puerto Rican American, was the first Latino Representative in a district with a heavy Mexican-American population.
That was because G played nice with Daley, the other guy didn’t, and that was when the Machine could punish such behavior.
Comment by Fav Human Tuesday, Oct 26, 21 @ 2:14 pm
What do you want, LFL? Two Latino seats in a 12-5 map or 1 plus maybe another in a 14-3 map? it doesn’t look like you can have both. Half a loaf is better than nothing if you ask me.
Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Oct 26, 21 @ 2:17 pm
==== Can Chuy survive a 50% CVAP? ====
I don’t see any prominent white or black dem going against him. And a a larger percentage of the whole CVAP will pull a GOP ballot than the Latino voters. If the Latinos can’t stay together on Chuy he might have a problem in a primary but that could happen even with stronger CVAP. And even if he had a decent GOP candidate run against him the district I believe the district is strong enough for the him and most Dem to hold.
Comment by Been There Tuesday, Oct 26, 21 @ 2:51 pm
==What do you want, LFL?==
What I don’t want is a lawsuit for violating VRA that allows someone else to shake things up.
Comment by Lake Front Liberal Tuesday, Oct 26, 21 @ 3:13 pm
MALDEF is calling for Latinx voting power to be maximized and the voting rights act requires maximization if latinx populations are connected close enough geographicly. This map achieves this. A few points to keep in mind:
1. Even if a non-latinx candidate is elected, the new member of Congress will be greatly influenced by the percentage of latinx voters in the district.
2. If a non-latinx candidate is elected, there’s no guarantee that the person will hold the seat for a decade.
3. Since most latinx voters in this District are Democrats, the latinx community likely has a majority of voters in the Democratic Primary.
4. The voters in this district do not have a high propensity to vote along racial lines. Therefore, if a latinx candidate wins the Democratic primary, they will likely win the General election
Comment by Isabel Tuesday, Oct 26, 21 @ 3:36 pm
Gil Villegas will pull suburban votes. He is a very solid candidate.
Comment by Vincent Vega Tuesday, Oct 26, 21 @ 3:58 pm
Unrelated to the second Latino district, is moving a large portion of Joliet from IL-11 to IL-14 a done deal (I would assume to make it a little less of a toss up?)? I’ve seen a good number of proposed maps that have moved it seemingly entirely over.
Comment by Southwest Suburbanite Tuesday, Oct 26, 21 @ 5:20 pm