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What will Rodney Davis and Mary Miller do now?

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Decision day dawned early Friday for members of Congress from Illinois confronted with a new district map drawn by Democrats in an effort to maximize power in Washington, avoid legal challenges and create an opportunity for adding a second Latino to the state’s delegation.

The fallout from the new map came quickly. First it was six-term Republican U.S. Rep. Adam Kinzinger of Channahon, an outcast in his own party over his opposition to former President Donald Trump, taking himself out of a primary matchup against the four-term U.S. Rep. Darin LaHood of Peoria, a staunch Trump supporter. […]

Still to be heard from is controversial freshman Republican U.S. Rep. Mary Miller of Oakland who was mapped into a district with four-term U.S. Rep. Mike Bost of Murphysboro [who announced for reelection last week]. Miller could choose to challenge five-term U.S. Rep. Rodney Davis, whose neighboring district includes some of her current district.

Then there’s Davis, himself, who was left alone by Democratic mapmakers in a heavily Republican central Illinois district. Always active in state GOP politics, Davis has said his political future depended on how Democrats treated him in drawing a new district. Davis has been considering a possible bid for the Republican nomination for governor.

* Politico…

While a run for U.S. Senate seems logical, an insider who has seen polling numbers says it would be a suicide mission for Kinzinger to run against Democratic Sen. Tammy Duckworth. He’d also have to get out of a primary first, which would be a challenge for Kinzinger in any race while Trumpism remains potent within the party.

Other possible scenarios: Kinzinger takes a talking-head job at CNN or MSNBC, writes a book about battling former President Donald Trump, earns millions of dollars to secure his family’s future while also raising funds for his super PACs — and then makes a run for president in 2024. Wouldn’t a Trump v. Kinzinger race be something?

Still another GOP insider wouldn’t be surprised if Kinzinger were to take a military-type appointment under a Biden administration. Conservatives like to dream. […]

Miller, meanwhile, may decide to run in Davis’ seat instead of the 12th District, where she’s been placed to face-off against Rep. Mike Bost.

Why that’s interesting: Miller, a Trump devotee, might be a better fit for the more conservative 12th District, but it would be difficult to challenge GOP veteran Bost, who has his own Trump credentials. The former president even campaigned for Bost in 2020. Miller might see a bigger opening by challenging Davis, who supported establishing a commission to investigate Trump’s actions on Jan. 6.

Candidates don’t have to live in the district they’re seeking to represent. It wouldn’t be unusual for Miller to run in the 15th since it encompasses a chunk of her current district and because her family farm is just over a mile from the district.

…Adding… Oops, forgot to post this…

* Fact-check: Rep. Mary Miller’s claim of caravan the size of Minneapolis off by factor of 100

…Adding… For what it’s worth, I agree with Lynn Sweet…

If Kinzinger and his team thinks it would have been an “all-consuming race” just to run for a House seat, imagine the time and money it would take to mount a statewide bid.

Running for governor, with its state-focused issues, does not seem to animate Kinzinger, so let’s rule that out for now.

The Senate is a better match.

Sen. Tammy Duckworth, D-Ill., 53, running for a second term in 2022, had $5.77 million cash-on-hand as of Sept. 30.

She will have no significant Democratic primary, so she can save for the general election. Kinzinger as of Sept. 30 had $3.35 million in his congressional war chest and would have to budget for an expensive primary.

Kinzinger, 43, will have other shots at the Senate.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Nov 1, 21 @ 10:08 am

Comments

Let Miller have the safe seat. Davis could easily beat the guy with the long Greek name no one can pronounce in the SOS race.

Comment by Al Monday, Nov 1, 21 @ 10:10 am
=== could easily beat the guy with the long Greek name no one can pronounce===

Narrator: Alexi has run statewide multiple times and has won.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 1, 21 @ 10:12 am
So, a race to see if Miller is too crazy for voters in the 12th or the 15th?

Again, heckava party you got there, Durkin.

Comment by Flyin' Elvis'-Utah Chapter Monday, Nov 1, 21 @ 10:16 am
“Davis could easily beat the guy”

Yeah, keep reading posts on this site about Davis the shoo-in.

When is he getting his dog off the porch?

Comment by Flyin' Elvis'-Utah Chapter Monday, Nov 1, 21 @ 10:18 am
==Narrator: Alexi has run statewide multiple times and has won. ==

Well, he hasn’t *won* multiple times. But yes, beating Giannoulias is not going to be a cake walk. Moreover, SOS is kind of a set down for an MOC, though similar moves have been done before.

Comment by Arsenal Monday, Nov 1, 21 @ 10:18 am
If republicans want to keep running basically men only statewide all over the country for 2022 be my guest

Comment by Lake Villa township Monday, Nov 1, 21 @ 10:19 am
Run any Republican you want in any statewide office. I won’t be voting for them. I would consider voting for Kinzinger, but no one else.

Comment by Cheryl44 Monday, Nov 1, 21 @ 10:20 am
=== could easily beat the guy with the long Greek name no one can pronounce===

Not a lot of ticket splitting anymore unless your name was Bruce Rauner or Judy Baar Topinka.

Comment by Marty Funkhouser Monday, Nov 1, 21 @ 10:21 am
Agree with OW. Davis is better staying in his district.

And I think Davis has the inside edge against Miller. Miller’s initial run was helped, in a large part, by running with Bailey in his Senate bid. Their territories largely overlapped and so they shared significant resources and campaign time.

Miller will not get the same time and attention from Bailey this time around. And I’m just not sure she plays as well in Western Illinois as she did in the southern parts of her district.

Comment by Downstate Monday, Nov 1, 21 @ 10:23 am
=== Well, he hasn’t *won* multiple times===

While very true, the list is long and distinguished of folks who would’ve like to win… one time… which he did.

Dismissing Alexi, even if anyone is not a fan of Alexi is foolish at this juncture, and thinking Alexi can’t win statewide is maybe more foolish, “because history”

It’s November 1st and I’m still wondering how the ILGOP has yet to find a substructure of a statewide ticket… given how, as a party, they think the “Democrat Party” is so bad.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 1, 21 @ 10:23 am
BTW, not exactly a profile in courage for Davis to *still* be dithering. He now lives in a safe district, but is worried about a nut district shopping to run against him.

Comment by Arsenal Monday, Nov 1, 21 @ 10:23 am
=== Agree with… Davis is better staying in his district.===

I said nothing of the sort since the new map has been released

Speak for yourself.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 1, 21 @ 10:25 am
=== He’d [Kinzinger] also have to get out of a primary first [for U.S. Senate], which would be a challenge for Kinzinger in any race while Trumpism remains potent within the party. ===

Plz Shia Kapos, have you seen the Republican primary field for U.S. Senate thus far?

=== Narrator: Alexi has run statewide multiple times and has won. ===

2nd narrator: Alexi has run statewide twice, winning once, and losing once (twice if counting special and regular U.S. Senate election losses on same day in 2010).

Comment by John Lopez Monday, Nov 1, 21 @ 10:30 am
==Dismissing Alexi, even if anyone is not a fan of Alexi is foolish at this juncture, and thinking Alexi can’t win statewide is maybe more foolish, “because history”==

Agreed. I think Giannoulias is a weaker candidate, but still proabbly favored in most matchups. Such is the state he has the benefit of running in.

(He also has a long primary, so he might solve some of his issues.)

==It’s November 1st and I’m still wondering how the ILGOP has yet to find a substructure of a statewide ticket… given how, as a party, they think the “Democrat Party” is so bad. ==

It’s interesting. Part of it is that there are just so few elected Republicans in this state, after a couple wipe outs and a couple near-misses. Nothing fails like failure.

Comment by Arsenal Monday, Nov 1, 21 @ 10:34 am
Narrator: Alexi has run statewide multiple times and has won.

I recall an election where alex got his lunch handed to him being the only dem to lose his race in a blue state.

Comment by Jolt Monday, Nov 1, 21 @ 10:35 am
I’ve seen these events and choices as such… in one instance…

===Miller could choose to run more Trumpier than Bost, or more Trumpier than Davis.

Of course, Miller won’t be living in Davis’ district, and that could be an annoyance while also trying to call Davis disloyal to Trump.

Miller could take on Bost, but Bost has literal decades of evolution to his Trump bona fides, not much running to any center for “Bost Toss”===

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 1, 21 @ 10:37 am
===I recall an election===

… while ignoring Alexi has won statewide before?

===Plz Shia Kapos, have you seen the Republican primary field for U.S. Senate thus far?===

“Please”, lol… dude, you commented here that a ticket with Kinzinger, the “Brady Ticket” would lose… want me to show you where?

===Alexi has run statewide twice, winning once, and losing once===

Which is what I typed, but go ahead and try to seem thoughtful, lol

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 1, 21 @ 10:40 am
==I recall an election where alex got his lunch handed to him being the only dem to lose his race in a blue state. ==

…do you? Because I remember the race he lost in 2010, and a couple other Dems lost statewide, too.

Pour one out for Treasurer Kelly and Comptroller Miller, I guess.

Comment by Arsenal Monday, Nov 1, 21 @ 10:54 am
If GOPies give Miller the House seat and she gets some exposure….everyone get a little education and decide she be gone

Comment by Annonin' Monday, Nov 1, 21 @ 10:57 am
Not for nothing, but Miller has replaced her Twitter background picture - removed the pic of her and Trump and now has a farm field.

Comment by Saluki with a Job Monday, Nov 1, 21 @ 11:21 am
It is true that Alexi lost a statewide race.

It is also true that Alexi lost to Mark Kirk.

It is also true that there is no Mark Kirk left in the Illinois Republican Party.

Comment by SaulGoodman Monday, Nov 1, 21 @ 11:23 am
“Moreover, SOS is kind of a set down for an MOC, though similar moves have been done before.”

As they say, there’s no accounting for taste, but I’m guessing that quite a few people would disagree with this. Lots more power in SOS, best place to launch a Gov run, patronage (blue collar and white collar). If someone made the offer to place me in one or the other, I’d take SOS.

I will say that SOS has a much higher level of accountability and probably lots more work. If all you want to do is issue press releases and point fingers, Congress is a great place for you.

Comment by A Matter of Taste Monday, Nov 1, 21 @ 11:25 am
The ILGOP needs credible candidate for offices that are winnable.

Those offices are SoS and Treasurer

Davis looking at governor, while it seems nice and maybe with Griffin’s money might play “better”, Davis is pro-life in an election year cycle where abortion and women’s health are going to be a huge deal especially statewide and Davis is a Trump apologist, twice deciding that Trump should not be impeached, even after inciting an insurrection.

Secretary of State is a huge deal, a big office, and while Jesse White was unbeatable, the stepping stone that is SoS was out on pause because of that, Jesse’s invincibility and Jesse feeling no need to move on. There’s no reason to think SoS can’t or won’t revert to its old ways of political kingmaking, as patronage, name ID, and visibility are still a thing at SoS.

Davis for SoS? If one sees the reality of Pritzker as unbeatable, if you don’t have $250 million at jump street… and betting Pritzker isn’t going to, (if he wins, one race at a time) go for a 3rd term… it’s a smart play for a long game. I have no idea if Davis sees that kind of upside to a job (governor) that is becoming less and less “fun” by the hour

Treasurer?

Mike Frerichs stands tall to a discussion of having retirement income taxed.

$7-10 million, keep the focus on Frerichs and his desire to a want to discuss hurting seniors’ retirement… that’s a big deal, ask the Fair Tax Flop autopsy and how that idea of Frerichs wanting to tax retirement income as a discussion…

Does that mean Mary Miller or Davis see Treasurer as a next stop? I’d doubt it.

Maybe it is as simple as who Miller can out-Trump in these new districts; Bost or Davis… and for Davis, maybe it’s as simple as taking Miller on as needed and the need not to worry to tact to the center because of the district he has?

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 1, 21 @ 11:39 am
Kinzinger is reduced to be a talking head for liberal media outlets. He is already all over the airwaves blasting Trump.

I don’t see where Miller has anyplace to go. Run against GOP incumbents that are ideologically close to her. Nah. Run for statewide office in a state that is heavily Democratic. Lots of luck on that.

Comment by Unconventional wisdom Monday, Nov 1, 21 @ 11:45 am
If Davis runs for any statewide office, he’s going to have work very, very hard at shedding his record of availability to constituents - or the lack thereof, more accurately.

I’m no longer in his district but when I was, he and his staff made sure to avoid any reasonable constituent outreach in the bigger cities in his district. But they made sure to hit every closed-door Farm Bureau meeting they could, so he could talk to a small groups who’d been effectively filtered to his liking. Not a good look going into any statewide run.

Comment by Scooter Monday, Nov 1, 21 @ 12:22 pm
Anyone in the media or IRL who says something along the lines of “Democrats mapped Kinzinger out of his district so he’s actively considering a statewide run” should never be taken seriously again. Glad to see Lynn Sweet gets that. Kinzinger is dead in today’s GOP. It’s pathetic but true. He can’t possibly win a Republican primary. Ain’t gonna happen. Anyone who says anything to the contrary is a political idiot.

Comment by Chicago Cynic Monday, Nov 1, 21 @ 12:32 pm
I don’t care where Miller runs, I just hope it is against a republican incumbent so I hope Davis has the courage to run against her is she chooses to challenge him. I personally want to see the damage they could try to do to one another.

Although Miller is a suburbanite, and not country folk as she tries to portray herself, I have a better chance of winning a statewide race using my capfax moniker, then she does. She might be the first candidate to get zero votes in Cook County. She will run for congress.

Comment by JS Mill Monday, Nov 1, 21 @ 12:54 pm
==I’m guessing that quite a few people would disagree with this.==

How many of them have been MoCs for a decade, tho?

SOS is no doubt a good gig, but if you’ve been in Washington for a decade, voting on healthcare and Israel-Palestine and going on the cable nets every couple weeks, dropping down to kinda silently toil on driver’s licenses and corporate registration is quite a comedown.

Governor is a different story, tho.

Comment by Arsenal Monday, Nov 1, 21 @ 1:01 pm
== Kinzinger is reduced to be a talking head for liberal media outlets.==
Which liberal media outlets? A Google search has him talking at PBS, NBC, the Hill, USA Today, ABC7, Fox News, as well as Newsweek, Washington Post and CNN.
So by liberal media you mean mainstream media?

“reduced.” In what way is Kinzinger “reduced?” He still has a seat in Congress.

Comment by Da big bad wolf Monday, Nov 1, 21 @ 1:05 pm
===Rep. Mary Miller’s claim of caravan the size of Minneapolis off by factor of 100

Nevermind.

Comment by ArchPundit Monday, Nov 1, 21 @ 1:42 pm
Picking fights again you can’t win?

=== Which is what I typed ===

Yup, it’s what you typed…the 2nd time you commented about Alexi statewide races record after someone else said what I pointed out, and your do-over comment wasn’t visible to me when I started typing my comment.

The only thing I was wrong about this morning was chastising Shia Kapos of POLITICO. It was Lynn Sweet who said yesterday where she overestimated the likes of Bobby Piton, Peggy Hubbard, Casey Chlebek and Eric Wallace to prevent Kinzinger Senate nomimation. Those 4 haven’t raised more than $250K combined for Senate through September.

Senate nomination is Kinzinger’s if he wants it, but Sweet & Kapos are right about the fall against Duckworth.

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Nov 1, 21 @ 3:05 pm
=== the 2nd time you commented about Alexi statewide races record===

I seriously can’t help you have reading AND word meaning issues - John Lopez - like the fact you have zero clue about peddling conspiracy theorists, LOL.

===Senate nomination is Kinzinger’s if he wants it, but Sweet & Kapos are right about the fall against Duckworth.===

No. I can show you where you talked about the “Brady Ticket” and it losing but you have this fascination about things you seeming flip on yourself in previous comments.

Good tries, I grant you that.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 1, 21 @ 3:13 pm
In the past year have you ever heard Adam Kinzinger criticize any Democratic politicians or policies during his countless media appearances?

Me neither

Comment by Lucky Pierre Monday, Nov 1, 21 @ 4:21 pm
Do you have a point LP? Likely not given your history but I thought I would ask.

Comment by Demoralized Monday, Nov 1, 21 @ 4:23 pm
- Lucky Pierre -

So criticizing Trump is a no-no for you eh?

Huh. Interesting.

I’m sure if you used the Google key to Kinzinger ads from past campaigns or quotes, you’d find criticism, but your bot programming is about purity to the cult these days…

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 1, 21 @ 4:24 pm
Kinzinger just criticized the Democrats most recently over the map they they drew, by the way. There are more examples but LP isn’t a fan of the truth.

Comment by Demoralized Monday, Nov 1, 21 @ 4:35 pm
@ Da big bad wolf - Monday, Nov 1, 21 @ 1:05 pm:

== Kinzinger is reduced to be a talking head for liberal media outlets.==
Which liberal media outlets? A Google search has him talking at PBS, NBC, the Hill, USA Today, ABC7, Fox News, as well as Newsweek, Washington Post and CNN.
So by liberal media you mean mainstream media?

“reduced.” In what way is Kinzinger “reduced?” He still has a seat in Congress. =

Did not see where he spoke on camera with FOX. The rest of the outlets you mentioned are liberal(the Hill?). And if you don’t they are liberal then you must think that FOX is not conservative. Yes, they are all ‘mainstream’ but that is not my point and is a deflection. As to having a seat in Congress? Yea, but no influence and he is out in 14 months.

Comment by Unconventional wisdom Monday, Nov 1, 21 @ 5:24 pm
=== Did not see where he spoke on camera with FOX===

The same network that is broadcasting the Tucker Carson insurrection conspiracy theory?

LOL

Of course you can call any and every other “outlet” liberal media, if you’re programmed to believe anything not fed to you by cult approved media is “liberal”

===Yea, but no influence and he is out in 14 months===

Can get on cable TV at any moment, the go-to for honest assessment of the Trumpkin silly… sounds like that’s a great deal of media influence.

Probably won’t stop in 14 months either.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 1, 21 @ 5:32 pm
The media outlets listed were found on Google and are a mix of right and left and center views.
The Allsides media bias chart puts USA Today, PBS and the Hill in the center, Fox leans right and CNN and Washington Post lean left.

“he is out in 14 months.”
Um, it’s a two year gig.

Comment by Da big bad wolf Monday, Nov 1, 21 @ 6:58 pm
My last two comments have not been posted. Any reason why they are so offensive?

Comment by Unconventional wisdom Monday, Nov 1, 21 @ 8:25 pm
=== In the past year=== dude, do you know how to follow him on Twitter? Because if you do, and you did, you would see his strong disagreement with Dems too. But that would be too much. Fire. Ready. Aim.

Comment by Saluki with a Job Monday, Nov 1, 21 @ 10:14 pm
===Fox leans right=== is there a golden horseshoe award for that?

Comment by Saluki with a Job Monday, Nov 1, 21 @ 10:19 pm
=== Kinzinger, 43, will have other shots at the Senate.===
Durbin is 77. He might decide to retire.

Comment by Da big bad wolf Thursday, Nov 4, 21 @ 8:45 am
Davis is toast against Miller. Davis whipped votes to save Liz Cheney the first time her position as conference chair was challenged. The second time, he simply he conveniently “missed” the vote but expressed disappointment she lost the position. Miller would trounce Davis in a primary.

Comment by Rye Bread Tuesday, Nov 16, 21 @ 5:41 am