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“Great Resignation” or “Great Refusal”?

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Illinois

The Natalie Pierre story is worth a read…

Illinoisans are quitting their jobs in record numbers in what many have deemed the “Great Resignation.”

The 201,000 Illinois residents who left jobs in August set a new record for the state. The data recently released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics also showed a record-setting 4.3 million resignations nationally, as Illinois’ record number of resignations ranked seventh among states for the month.

“This is unprecedented,” said University of Illinois labor law professor Michael LeRoy. “And it’s poorly understood.”

Robert Bruno, who has published research about the topic over the last year, prefers to refer to what’s happening as the “Great Refusal.”

The University of Illinois labor relations professor said some of what is being reflected in the trend is a response to how people were treated by their employers at the start of the pandemic — whether they were quickly fired, laid off, furloughed or found themselves in situations where they were asked to do more work with an increased risk.

That being said, a close family member has been unemployed for months and has had real trouble finding job openings. I’m not sure everything is at it seems.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Nov 8, 21 @ 11:46 am

Comments

I dunno. I think this is the first time in my life time that the labor market has favored the employee. I also feel like the a whole bunch of factors - offshoring, automation, so called ‘gig’ work, and others - have conspired to squeeze employees at all levels for a long time. I think you add that to some clear consternation amongst the essential crowd that during a public health crisis they were going into work while the rest of us turned room rater into the new office gossip it’s not hard to see how these changes are happening.

So if the pandemic accelerated a (probably) temporary market correction, it’s probably not a bad thing.

Incidentally, if you’re even considering leaving your job or trying to renegotiate your compensation there’s probably no better a time…..

Comment by dan l Monday, Nov 8, 21 @ 11:55 am
I am concerned that this labor market will push many industries to leap forward much faster to automation and some human jobs will be permanently robotized.

This was happening already, but now the economics of the labor market will drive it much faster.

Comment by Siriously Monday, Nov 8, 21 @ 11:57 am
Seems to be uncharted territory. Young people are demanding that their concerns be taken into account in these times of serious health concerns to them and their families Can’t blame them for that! For my 2 adult children, their work from home days were highly productive and only group meetings in person were what was missing. Of course, there are the social interactions but aren’t those what employers were always on employees to minimize and be more productive?

Companies are lagging behind in their thinking about traditional work days and productivity vs remote work and productivity. Can’t adjust to the idea that they don’t need the real estate they’re so tied to and all the equipment that they’ve invested in. But it can be and has been done remotely!

Young professionals are bucking the traditional work day and place Employers would be wise to listen to them if they want to keep quality employees.

Comment by A Monday, Nov 8, 21 @ 12:02 pm
= I’m not sure everything is at it seems.=

Ditto.

Comment by JS Mill Monday, Nov 8, 21 @ 12:02 pm
=The 201,000 Illinois residents who left jobs in August set a new record=

As the story suggests, it is essential that we disaggregate these numbers. Some left work for reasons beyond their control (layoffs, business closings, etc.), while others left due to COVID (e.g., I do not want to work in an environment that does not require masks among customers).Still others left for the reason noted above, “a response to how people were treated by their employers,” and others because they realized they could survive without additional income. Finally, leaving jobs is not the same as leaving labor markets.

For many reasons, it would help to know the various reasons people are leaving jobs, rather than assuming a mass exodus.

Comment by H-W Monday, Nov 8, 21 @ 12:02 pm
Best of luck to your family member, Rich.

But in terms of the larger employment trend, I’m really enjoying the fact that no one understands what’s going. The national pundits keep saying “maybe it’s this, maybe it’s that” and expecting everything to snap back like a rubber band to March 2020. When extended unemployment benefits ended, things were supposed to change, but didn’t.

It seems like this is one of those very rare circumstances in which workers have the edge over employers.

Comment by Friendly Bob Adams Monday, Nov 8, 21 @ 12:03 pm
there are lots of jobs out there at bakeries, gas stations, mall stores, but it seems those are not wanted. I talked to a service provider who is located in a store because no one was answering the phone and I had to go in to talk with her. she told me they cannot keep people in the jobs at the counter. they walk away. also a pal in his 20s is a hardcore part of the don’t take the jobs make them hike the salaries side. small businesses are suffering. soon we will just be left with big box and Amazon.

Comment by Amalia Monday, Nov 8, 21 @ 12:03 pm
I think that there is still a lot of highly unreasonable employer expectation out there.

Job openings? Yes, but see the fine print…..

At one time employers would look at you if you were 80% of what they wanted. 2009 let them demand 99~100%. They are still into that mode.

Comment by Fav Human Monday, Nov 8, 21 @ 12:03 pm
—–
also a pal in his 20s is a hardcore part of the don’t take the jobs make them hike the salaries side. small businesses are suffering. soon we will just be left with big box and Amazon.
—–

If they can’t afford to pay staff, they don’t get to have staff and I don’t remember any of the small business types complaining when walmart and amazon were depressing wages for the last 10, 15 years.

Honestly when I hear in my head during the entire dialog surrounding this is: ‘ain’t no fun when the rabbit’s got the gun’.

Comment by dan l Monday, Nov 8, 21 @ 12:11 pm
I am considering leaving the workforce permanently even though I could easily work until the full retirement age of 68. However it has become increasingly frustrating seeing all the new ways the Federal government is spending my tax dollars. I don’t have any grievances with the state. My state tax burden is minimal compared to my Federal taxes.

Comment by A Jack Monday, Nov 8, 21 @ 12:13 pm
—–
At one time employers would look at you if you were 80% of what they wanted. 2009 let them demand 99~100%. They are still into that mode.
—–

You’re definitely right. I don’t know about now though. I think a lot of managers are willing to take a gamble on somebody interested in a career change or something today than they were a few years back

Comment by dan l Monday, Nov 8, 21 @ 12:13 pm
According to economist Nick Bunker, the top two reasons people are staying away from working recently are 1) care responsibilities (caring for a family member or child) and 2) COVID-19. Of course, number 2 is a big reason for number 1.

https://www.npr.org/transcripts/1053000563

Comment by Shield Monday, Nov 8, 21 @ 12:13 pm
A few years ago, I kept hearing that there were 30,000 unfilled manufacturing jobs in the Chicago reason. There was a skills gap! Employers couldn’t find qualified candidates!

It turns out, most of those jobs were part-time and/or did not provide benefits. Based on some stories from friends, we’re seeing the same thing again, but at a much wider scale.

Comment by "Jobs" Monday, Nov 8, 21 @ 12:16 pm
==2009 let them demand 99~100%==

Not to mention a lot of places doing ‘more with less’ by telling employees “It’ll get better after the pandemic.” People are getting tired of waiting.

Comment by Jocko Monday, Nov 8, 21 @ 12:17 pm
We are approaching post work…wasn’t that the goal?

Automation is the future.

Comment by Dotnonymous Monday, Nov 8, 21 @ 12:17 pm
Shocker, people don’t want to work for a minimum wage that hasn’t (with some state-level exceptions) been raised since the Paleolithic Era. They’re launching studies to try to find out what is behind all of this, when the answer is obvious. People cannot afford to live on the wages they’re being paid these days, and so its often cheaper to stay home and watch your own kids than pay someone 7 dollars more per hour than you earn while you’re gone.

It isn’t rocket science, but people are acting like they can’t tell the reason kids love the taste of Cinnamon Toast Crunch.

Comment by Commissar Gritty Monday, Nov 8, 21 @ 12:26 pm
–
At one time employers would look at you if you were 80% of what they wanted. 2009 let them demand 99~100%. They are still into that mode –

To the extent that’s true I wonder if people’s idea of bouncing between jobs contributes to it. If I hire you at 80% but believe that by investing resources in training you I can get you to 100% I’d like to know you plan on staying after I get you trained. I.e if it takes a year of work to be really proficient I’d like to know I’ll have you for 5 yrs etc.

Comment by Mason born Monday, Nov 8, 21 @ 12:28 pm
“Automation is the future.”

…and that is terrifying because our political institutions and ineffective octogenarian leaders are incapable of making this once-in-a-millenium paradigm shift in economics work in real terms for the 300+ million Americans that don’t own the robots.

Comment by sulla Monday, Nov 8, 21 @ 12:29 pm
Are companies that pay good wages and view their employees as assets, having the same trouble filling jobs?
The “you can be replaced if you don’t like the working conditions” crowd seems to be having the most trouble filling openings.

Comment by Bruce( no not him) Monday, Nov 8, 21 @ 12:46 pm
Many jobs not being filled involve working with the public. With the way people have been behaving I can see why these jobs are not being filled. I swear the virus of lack of mutual respect is worse than COVID

Comment by illinifan Monday, Nov 8, 21 @ 12:47 pm
One aspect that’s little mentioned lately is that many of these low-level jobs were previously taken by immigrants, particularl undocumented ones. From the onset of the pandemic, immigration has cratered, which is leaving America short of low-paying workers. If there was ever a time to increase immigration to proviode a bigger labor pool, it’s probably now.

Comment by Benjamin Monday, Nov 8, 21 @ 12:50 pm
I also think that employers need to look beyond pay and monetary compensation to get help in retail and food-service jobs. Regular hours and management that respects that workers have lives outside of their workplace–neither of which are typical for these sectors–would go a long way.

Comment by Benjamin Monday, Nov 8, 21 @ 12:52 pm
It’s not one thing; it’s a lot of different things.

Part of it has to do with the fact that, once you’ve been off work for a year or more, you are less likely to go back to work. You’ve figured out how to survive without working … or at least working at that job. I think Rich highlighted a study on that a couple of weeks ago. If not, it was in the news.

Part of it is the shortage of child care, especially affordable child care. As noted, it doesn’t make economic sense to pay more for child care than you are earning.

Part of it is a number of the (for lack of a better term) lesser skilled positions no longer exist because businesses closed permanently. When a mom and pop business closes, you no longer need wait staff or clerks or stock people.

Part of it is the baby boomer generation aging out. Those that owned businesses have decided that it isn’t worth the aggravation to keep going. And those who were just employees are just retiring,in some cases early. This one was easily predicable and going to happen (and has been) even without a pandemic.

And then there are the (formerly?) essential employees that helped keep the business doors open the last 2 years. You have to keep the key employees happy. If the owners and managers haven’t been raising pay, the employees are deciding to go wherever someone will pay more AND kick in hiring bonuses, or extra benefits.

Specific to Illinois, the annual increase in the minimum wage is also somewhat contributing to this. A lot of businesses are not pushing up the wages of long term workers at the same pace the minimum wage has increased; this makes long term employees feel less valued, and also leads to turnover.

If I’m right about this (and I think I am because I’ve talked to a number of both small business owners and some of the 30ish generation, there is no one solution / magic bullet to solve it.

Comment by RNUG Monday, Nov 8, 21 @ 1:04 pm
I think some are missing the larger picture.

Personal income in Illinois - excluding capital gains - grew from $760B for the first quarter of 2020 to $885B for the first quarter of 2021, and from $814B in Q2 2020 to Q2 2021.

Incomes are on the rise in Illinois, despite fewer people working. Part of the goal of raising the minimum wage was that you would not have to have two parents working multiple jobs just to make ends meet, and it’s quite possible that the employment data along with banking data showing average checking account balances rising means we are progressing toward that goal.

Comment by Thomas Paine Monday, Nov 8, 21 @ 1:04 pm
It’s a pretty good time to get hired if you’ve always wanted to be a flight attendant.

Talk about a job that’s lost it’s veneer of glamour. Lol.

Comment by 47th Ward Monday, Nov 8, 21 @ 1:05 pm
=However it has become increasingly frustrating seeing all the new ways the Federal government is spending my tax dollars.=

Out of curiosity, are you planning to collect Social Security when you retire? or Medicare?
And how do you feel about the military…?

Comment by LakeCo Monday, Nov 8, 21 @ 1:06 pm
This is exactly what a failing system looks like…with both eyes open.

Comment by Dotnonymous Monday, Nov 8, 21 @ 1:25 pm
——
I also think that employers need to look beyond pay and monetary compensation to get help in retail and food-service jobs. Regular hours and management that respects that workers have lives outside of their workplace–neither of which are typical for these sectors–would go a long way.
—–

Why stop at retail and food? Every employer should be doing it. Make a real, whole hearted attempt at work-life balance. Purge bad managers. Allow for more free to the business but valuable to the employee stuff like work from home.

Comment by dan l Monday, Nov 8, 21 @ 1:25 pm
==Allow for more free to the business but valuable to the employee stuff like work from home.==

Here are just a few of the “help wanted” signs I recall noticing while out and about this weekend:

3 different large grocery stores
4 fast food restaurants
shoe store
bike shop
coffee shop
storage facility

Which of these look like “work from home” opportunities to you?

Comment by Responsa Monday, Nov 8, 21 @ 1:39 pm
“close family member has been unemployed for months and has had real trouble finding job openings. I’m not sure everything is at it seems.”

Agreed. Last May, my oldest daughter graduated with a masters degree in industrial and organizational psychology. Has yet to receive an offer. Had a few telephone interviews.

Comment by Huh? Monday, Nov 8, 21 @ 1:40 pm
=== Which of these look like “work from home” opportunities to you?===

None do, so that’s probably why the question was about more work from home opportunities.

Wages vs family costs (including child care) are real… workers realize how under appreciated they are in service industries (wages)?

Like - Lucky Pierre - proudly touted;

Make it painful so people are forced to work… thinking it was about the extra UI money.

Welp, this seems unrelated?

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 8, 21 @ 1:44 pm
=small businesses are suffering. soon we will just be left with big box and Amazon.=

This is so very, very true. I completely forgot about all of the laws that prohibit small businesses from both raising wages and raising prices

Comment by Joe Bidenopolous Monday, Nov 8, 21 @ 1:46 pm
=Which of these look like “work from home” opportunities to you?=

Obviously they aren’t. But they’ll have to compete for labor just like everyone else. And if certain jobs offer more flexibility like working from home than the businesses that you cited are going to have to come up with more compelling reasons for people to want to work there. Because capitalism can work both ways.

Comment by Pundent Monday, Nov 8, 21 @ 1:53 pm
I have several younger relatives and am amazed at what they have to put up with that I didn’t in the 80s. They’re basically on call all day every day for what is a part time job.

I’ve had 24hr on call jobs before, but they paid like they were 24hr on call- not some ‘come in today b/c we need you’ cash register position that pays minimum wage.

I had 3 part time jobs after high school. You literally can’t do that anymore because they never have a real schedule. It’s crazy.

Comment by jimbo Monday, Nov 8, 21 @ 2:04 pm
== I am considering leaving the workforce permanently even though I could easily work until the full retirement age of 68. However it has become increasingly frustrating seeing all the new ways the Federal government is spending my tax dollars.==

Some of that spending benefits you, and will continue to do so. Social Security, Medicare, infrastructure, military, FDA, FEMA. Etc.

Won’t you still be paying taxes to the federal government for your social security, IRA or 401k distribution? How is retiring early going to stop that?

To the post: as a younger baby boomer, I retired a little early last year. The pandemic gave me the opportunity to work from home for several months. That told me I enjoyed being home for long periods, removing one of my reasons for continuing to work. I no longer loved my job. I found it a source of stress. Extended family needed my time, were unpredictable about it and there was no one to help me with that. As RNUG stated, there are many moving parts to this puzzle. There’s multiple solutions needed.

Comment by thoughts matter Monday, Nov 8, 21 @ 2:14 pm
Would be curious about the breakdown of folks leaving a job by job type and income level.

I suspect there is a lot going on, but I wonder how much is folks who have jobs that are now being offered as fully remote options by some companies but not their current employer. I think the whole ‘you already worked here so we expect you in X days a week but we hired Bob during the pandemic as a fully remote guy’ is going to play into this.

Comment by OneMan Monday, Nov 8, 21 @ 4:40 pm
=small businesses are suffering. soon we will just be left with big box and Amazon.=

This is so very, very true. I completely forgot about all of the laws that prohibit small businesses from both raising wages and raising prices.

As someone who spent the better part of two decades doing the bar/service business as a side gig - including lengthy stints as a partner and an owner - I always laugh when people think the simple thing for that small business owner to do is to just raise their wages along with their prices, as if there is no corollary to the reaction/issues you may face when it comes to customer spend. We analyzed things down to the consistency of our pours per shot. Figured out how we could create more menu items with the same ingredients, diversify to accommodate wider ranges of patrons…and I can also tell you that we learned very quickly what the price limits were for our market, given our competition and cost of goods, rent, insurance, licenses, etc. And those limits did not include significant raises for staff.

Comment by Just a guy Monday, Nov 8, 21 @ 4:55 pm
How many people that own homes are a part of this job exit mob? I’m guessing not many. The people that normally fill these job openings are renters or children living at home. Does the eviction moratorium play a large hand in this? If you have nothing to lose, why p(l)ay? Let’s see what happens to these numbers when the chances of being forced to be homeless rise dramatically. Pretty heartless to think that might be what it’s going to take to get some folks back to work.

Comment by Papa2008 Monday, Nov 8, 21 @ 4:56 pm
There is a fair amount of evidence that the screening processes that have been automated are eliminating too many people from consideration because they are looking for specific types of statements/words in resumes.

This isn’t likely to be the primary reason, but it may be significant. I’ve routinely found problems on the hiring end with both computer based and person based screening that is far more limiting than the actual requirements specified.

Comment by ArchPundit Monday, Nov 8, 21 @ 5:46 pm
People don’t want the minimum wage jobs anymore. I’ve experienced a surprisingly large number of businesses that close on certain days due to staffing issues, and all of them were in businesses that I assume pay the minimum wage.

Comment by Just Me 2 Monday, Nov 8, 21 @ 8:18 pm
One restaurant owner I know can’t find enough staff and they are paying $20/hr plus benefits. They finally just closed the place. And it was a place that was always packed.

How do we explain that one?

Comment by RNUG Monday, Nov 8, 21 @ 11:36 pm
@RNUG -

Restaurants are experiencing problems, sometimes for very different reasons.

Was the restaurant owner requiring staff and patrons to be vaccinated?

Most people I know who are vaccinated don’t want to spend 10 hours a day around unmasked, unvaccinated people.

There are also a lot of experienced people who left the restaurant business and are never coming back. There is no majic resupply of young people who want to work under lousy conditions for entry level pay and be sexually harrassed and racially discriminated against.

Speaking of which, just 7 percent of restaurant workers are Black, and I would bet most of them are in the kitchen. I don’t know why so many restaurants refuse to hire Black people, I suspect it goes back to early 20th century.

If you are experiencing a labor shortage and you refuse to hire the people most in need of jobs, you are gonna have problems.

It is not the restaurant business, it is also retail. The racial composition of cashiers is changing.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Tuesday, Nov 9, 21 @ 7:44 am
=== If you have nothing to lose, why p(l)ay? Let’s see what happens to these numbers when the chances of being forced to be homeless rise dramatically.===
In what way do renters have nothing to lose? They can be evicted after the moratorium ends for starters. And jobs are more than pay, they are healthcare and social security contributions as well.

Comment by Da big bad wolf Tuesday, Nov 9, 21 @ 11:12 am