Capitol Fax.com - Your Illinois News Radar

Winter is coming: Pritzker says top epidemiologists warning of January-February surge

Posted in:

Illinois

* My weekly syndicated newspaper column...

Gov. J.B. Pritzker told reporters not long ago that he was worried about the plateauing COVID-19 hospitalization rate and said he wouldn’t yet lift his statewide mask mandate.

But the governor told me something around the same time during an interview that he hasn’t yet said publicly: He’s most concerned about what may happen in January and February and upbeat about the spring and summer.

“What we’re trying to evaluate is, are the hospitalization numbers increasing, decreasing or staying the same,” Pritzker told reporters in early November. “We want them decreasing. They’re not currently, just to be clear. New hospitalizations are flat. That is not a good sign. That’s not what’s happened in previous dips from surges. We went down for a while here, but now we’ve leveled out at a level that is much higher than the summer. And so the question is, is that just a temporary situation? Are we going to start heading downward in those numbers?”

Since the governor said that, hospitalizations have yet again begun to increase, rising by almost 22% as of this writing. Hospitalizations are up almost 30% since late October’s low of 1,198.

That increase led Illinois Department of Public Health Director Dr. Ngozi Ezike to warn last week that the statewide mask mandate wouldn’t be lifted before Thanksgiving, as some had hoped when hospitalizations were plateauing.

“As we’ve moved indoors,” Ezike told Quincy’s WGEM-TV, “we haven’t maybe taken our masks indoors with us. So a lot of unmasked indoor gatherings are likely part of the problem.”

Last year, COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths shot up in November and continued ravaging our still mostly unvaccinated state through January.

I interviewed Gov. Pritzker not long ago and asked him if he was worried about yet another big wave starting in November.

Pritzker said the top epidemiologists in Illinois he speaks with outside of IDPGH tell him, “Their expectation is that January and February we could see a surge of cases and the resulting hospitalizations. So, how worried am I? I am worried as much as the epidemiologists are.”

Asked how worried the epidemiologists are, Pritzker said he didn’t know how to characterize that, “other than that they tell me that they expect to see a surge. I have to take it very seriously.”

Pritzker also talked about the internal debate over what to do about mitigations, like mask mandates, in the meantime. “One of the questions that you have to ask yourself and that we all ask ourselves is, if we modify mitigations now as things are mildly reducing or getting better, what changes do you make now if you think that in January and February, you’re gonna see potentially a surge?”

A little later in the interview, Pritzker asked if he could clarify some things.

“I think when you look at the pattern here of surges, the surges are getting smaller because of vaccinations, because of where we are in the cycle. And so, the hope here is that each of the moves that we’re making going forward are really flattening those surges down.”

Pritzker went on to say that he’s hearing from the epidemiological community that by next spring or summer, the virus will become more like the flu “because people will be getting vaccinated on a regular basis or that boosters will be available, and because more people will have been vaccinated.”

The governor quickly added that he wasn’t suggesting COVID is anything like the flu. “I’m just saying if you look at other chronic diseases, other things that we’ve worked to overcome with vaccinations, this is becoming more and more like that because people are getting more and more vaccinated.”

And, it should be added, effective treatments may be on the horizon. Pfizer is developing a pill that shows real promise at preventing severe illness, the New York Times has reported.

But, as Dr. Ezike also said this month, “Of course, COVID is so complicated. It’s been throwing us curveball after curveball.”

Colorado is currently experiencing a surge in cases, and experts there have told reporters that they don’t know why and don’t know if they’ll ever know. And, as pointed out in a Denver CBS4-TV news story on that topic, the popularity of home COVID testing means that private results aren’t being reported and therefore not tracked by state and local public health departments.

That means the jobs of people who try to anticipate the future path of the disease have been made significantly more difficult, which is not what we need.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 8:40 am

Comments

Gov and his team have serious work to do when it comes to continued masking.

Even those I know who in the past have worn mask and gotten vaccinated are making statements like, “funny how other states have dropped the masking mandates but yet Illinois and JB seems to think they know better than others”.

Not saying they are right, but the Gov and his team need to start explaining things in ways the public understands because they are starting to lose the masking argument even among supporters of earlier masking mandates.

Comment by Give Me A Break Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 8:48 am
Doubling down on masking when the administration admits people aren’t doing it anyway is an interesting strategy… especially when JB is in Glasgow taking photo ops with maskless people. The only State east of the Mississippi with a mask mandate is Illinois.

Comment by 1st Ward Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 8:53 am
The indoor soccer season kicked off this weekend in Springfield and I visited Soccer World two different times. Although they have a huge “mask are required” sign as you enter, no one is enforcing it and 90% of the spectators weren’t wearing any.

Comment by Grimlock Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 8:53 am
“Give Me A Break” - I agree. I support continued indoor mask wearing given our current substantial transmission rates (yes, I have to wear it in person at work, yes, it’s annoying), but public health is not communicating very effectively right now and people are starting to get frustrated.

Comment by skutt Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 8:54 am
If the Governor would tie continued mask mandates to community transmission levels as defined by the CDC, it would take away one of the common criticisms, while achieving the same goal. Having a goal to work toward might even improve compliance.

Comment by AC Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 9:06 am
I’m on the board of a religious institution, and the difference between the state’s rules and what people are seeing and doing in the community is causing a lot of frustration and complaining. I also recently attended a crowded memorial event in Chicago with many prominent lawyers where almost nobody was masked.

I agree that the state and city need to give better explanations of the reasons for the current the public health rules.

Comment by Keyrock Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 9:08 am
I do not understand what is confusing about masks. If you’re inside, wear a mask. If you’re outside, do what you want. Masks aren’t a theory at this point. We know they work to reduce transmission, and that’s true regardless of anything any governor anywhere mandates. Doesn’t make it less true if you don’t mandate it.

Comment by Who else Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 9:09 am
Colorado mask mandate: == masks are only required in certain places for people who are not fully vaccinated.==

This could be why Colorado is currently experiencing a surge in cases. https://covid19.colorado.gov/mask-guidance

Comment by Enviro Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 9:10 am
A co-worker is classic example of what the continued masking mandate is up against. They are vaccinated and comply with masking mandates but said this morning. I stopped for gas just across the Illinois/Mizzou border. No one on the Mizzou side was wearing a mask but yet when I stopped five miles into Illinois at Starbucks I had to mask up. Does JB think the people of Illinois are going to put up with this masking mandate forever when other states have dropped it?

Comment by Give Me A Break Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 9:12 am
I don’t get out as much as I used to, but I only saw two masks all weekend.

Comment by Blue Dog Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 9:14 am
Masks were an uphill climb in southern Illinois, even at the height of the pandemic.

Now, it is completely ignored. Pritzker keeps it in place, he might not get 10 points next year.

Comment by Flyin' Elvis'-Utah Chapter Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 9:16 am
There was a time when I knew what the statistical goal was and where we were and felt that wearing a mask and following the rules was helping get us to that goal, which translated into greater community safety and personal flexibility.

Like, c’mon people, if we all mask up and take this seriously we can get the positive rate below (whatever) and the indoor mask mandate goes away.

And we did it. We met the goals. Remember that brief period when the mask mandate went away?

Then Delta hit.

Right now I have no idea what the goals are. It doesn’t feel like there’s a light at the end of the tunnel. I’m just supposed to put on my mask until told otherwise. I do it, but …

Comment by What's my motivation Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 9:17 am
==Does JB think the people of Illinois are going to put up with this masking mandate forever when other states have dropped it?==

When were mask mandates forever discussed? I must’ve missed that part.

Comment by AC Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 9:20 am
I don’t subscribe to the idea that we should do something just because others are doing it. Masks have been proven to help when used. If you think removing masking will end well, you haven’t been paying attention. And do people really need to be told why every day, lest they forget?

On the other hand, Austria is locking down the unvaccinated. Sounds l like a great idea to me. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-59283128

Comment by Jibba Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 9:21 am
Some of these mask comments are getting to be a bit much. There are other things to talk about in this column.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 9:21 am
== Does JB think the people of Illinois are going to put up with this masking mandate forever when other states have dropped it?==

This is how my kids reason. I’m glad they aren’t in charge of public health.

Comment by SWIL_Voter Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 9:26 am
==He’s most concerned about what may happen in January and February==

And yet many agencies are requiring folks to report to the office–December 1. Whether your productivity requires you to be there or not.

Comment by Sangamon Girl Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 9:26 am
The continued existence of this virus in a mode of high community spread is a direct result of many local health departments taking a hands off approach at best, and a counter productive approach at worst, during the early stages of the pandemic.

I’ve lost so much respect for my local health department over the past 18 months. To the point there would be no difference made to public health if the department was completely eliminated. Possibly even an improvement in public health, since my county health department was making public statements authorizing maskless indoor pizza buffets with no capacity limits in the fall of 2020.

County level health departments have shown to be a failure in my eyes, and I really think a reorganization into a state centric model similar to the DMV organizational model is more appropriate for any health situation which goes beyond county borders.

The state may have its own problems, but county level health department have even more problems. Too many county level departments are acting in a way that is counter productive to the guidance the state is trying to implement. Sometimes the best that can be accomplished is to reduce the number of problems. That seems to be the situation we are faced with in many counties.

Comment by TheInvisibleMan Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 9:39 am
Eighteen months of more transparent Gov & IDPH “When the metrics are this then this mitigation will happen…” tossed out the window.

I get the winter month surge concerns but as many point out above, lots of the State are blowing the mask mandate off already, and second, just pick a benchmark for the mask mandate for the sake of all the schools and small biz trying to keep up. This “We’ll know it’s safe to relax when we know.” standard just feeds the criticisms/trolls of any mitigations.

Meanwhile Chicago remains that rarest of American cities: one with a enforced mandatory indoor mask mandate but no indoor service vaccine mandate. Where’s the face palm emoji button?

Comment by ChicagoBars Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 9:48 am
The UK has already approved the Pfizer pill that reduces Covid hospitalization by 85-90% if taken in the first 5 days of infection.

https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-science-business-health-medication-eeea3c6a5f6428479e35bc1bcd7aec52

Comment by Lucky Pierre Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 9:52 am
Illinois might be the last state in America to get rid of mask mandates. Illinois is a bizarre risk averse state. Other states have unmasked with lower hospitalization rates. You can ‘t expect a state that can’t run public pension funds to make decisions based on science.

Comment by Mr. Green Jeans Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 10:01 am
=== You can ‘t expect a state that can’t run public pension funds===

When running pension funds becomes a global health issue…

It’s too early to go full crazy in-law uncle.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 10:11 am
I see a lot of folks are warming up for their Thanksgiving rants to appalled nieces and nephews.

Comment by Not a Superstar Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 10:27 am
==Masks were an uphill climb in southern Illinois, even at the height of the pandemic.Now, it is completely ignored. Pritzker keeps it in place, he might not get 10 points next year==

Point noted. I’ll also note that in Cook and the collar counties- where the majority of voters are- I continually see 90+% indoor mask wearing.

Comment by jimbo Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 10:28 am
So masking until March? When does this end? We have vaccines and boosters. There are external costs to mask wearing that Pritzker’s team isn’t accounting for - and the stats say mask wearing only reduces symptomatic COVID cases by 9% according to the large study from Yale that they did in Bangladesh. Let masks be voluntary.

Comment by Chicagonk Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 10:30 am
===So masking until March? When does this end?===

Didn’t you answer your question?

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 10:35 am
If COVID is seasonal (and I believe it is), why did Illinois impose a mask mandate in August?

Comment by Bored Chairman Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 10:35 am
===(and I believe it is)===

So infections and worse outcomes can’t be predicated by not using a mask or poor choices, only “in season or not”?

Poor habits to health in this instance isn’t eased by… a calendar.

Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 10:40 am
Governor Pritzker and IDPH have continually squandered their trust through inconsistent and overbearing health messaging without end points that have been adhered to and rules that lack common sense.

In the framework of all of that, it is no wonder the populace has taken their personal health, safety and risk tolerance into their own hands.

Governing solely to avoid what is seemingly inevitable Covid illness at the complete and total expense of personal choice,
health impacts from mitigations, lagging childhood education and emotional well-being, etc. will catch up to this administration. You’re seeing the start of it. I just hope and pray it fully manifests itself at the ballot box.

Comment by DuPage Moderate Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 10:42 am
===why did Illinois impose a mask mandate in August? ===

You ever heard of this thing called the delta variant? It’s a different virus than last year’s version. Far more contagious.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 10:43 am
Andy Slavitt’s In the Bubble podcast this week addresses the “how long must it be this way” question. The problem (which he and Dr. Bob Wachter discuss in more detail) is that when masking and other measures are released, the virus increases.
https://lemonadamedia.com/show/inthebubble/

Comment by Keyrock Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 10:48 am
Most encouraging thing I saw JB saying was “I think when you look at the pattern here of surges, the surges are getting smaller because of vaccinations, because of where we are in the cycle.” This is consistent with the March 2020 views of several public health experts and its good seeing it play out…because, as JB notes, it means we ultimately get to a point where even the surges/peaks are reasonably low/manageable.

Comment by WestBurbs Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 11:08 am
DuPage Moderate - you are spouting the Scott Atlas line –“letting ’er rip” — which, had it been followed, likely would have led to many, many more deaths (an additional million, or more?)

That is insane. If I’m misinterpreting your words “Governing solely to avoid what is seemingly inevitable Covid illness…” say so. If not, you really need to read some science…

Comment by WestBurbs Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 11:25 am
“You ever heard of this thing called the delta variant?”

Ever heard of vaccines…..

Comment by 1st Ward Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 11:26 am
I don’t mind wearing a mask. I haven’t had as much as a cold since this started.

Comment by Cheryl44 Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 11:41 am
===Ever heard of vaccines===

Plenty. And I also know of a lot of folks who predicted millions of deaths from this vaccine and that never happened. Grifters all.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 11:45 am
“And I also know of a lot of folks who predicted millions of deaths from this vaccine and that never happened. Grifters all”

way to gaslight on that response… par for the course I suppose.

Comment by 1st Ward Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 11:55 am
===way to gaslight===

That ain’t gaslighting. It’s fact. It’s also a fact that if the gullible without a cause had been vaccinated, the delta variant wouldn’t have killed and hospitalized so many people.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 11:57 am
===and the stats say mask wearing only reduces symptomatic COVID cases by 9% according to the large study from Yale that they did in Bangladesh===

That’s not what the study said. Those results were achieved with less than half of people wearing masks. From the study:

The researchers emphasize that this reduction in infections was achieved with just 42% of people wearing masks. The effect of near-universal mask-wearing may be several times larger, they estimate. The increased protection from infection for older individuals, who are more at risk, is also significant.

https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/in-first-randomized-study-shows-that-masks-reduce-covid-19-infections

Comment by Just the Facts, Ma'am Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 12:09 pm
“had been vaccinated, the delta variant wouldn’t have killed and hospitalized so many people.”

Narrator the article is about the mask mandate and mitigations in a state where 60%+ of the population is vaccinated. In Chicago its 70%+ and boosters are available but Illinois is the only state east of the Mississippi with a mask mandate where the rationale is people don’t want to wear them even though they are required so we will keep requiring them even though its ignored. Maybe switch up the strategy….

Comment by 1st Ward Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 12:10 pm
===the article is about the mask mandate===

Um, I wrote the column, so don’t tell me what the column is about. That would definitely be gaslighting.

The column is about many things, including vaccinations, you clown.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 12:13 pm
Just wait till you read about white tail deer population being a reservoir for COVID in the United States. Hope the Pfizer pill works as good as advertised.

But how much do I worry anymore? A little my 11 year old just got his first shot, so I worry a little less. But my entire family unit is vaccinated, kids wear masks in school, I wear one at the grocery store. The risk to my health and my loved ones and most everyone else who has common sense is very low. So at some point the mandates and restrictions do need to go away.

I just wonder when you have understand - you can’t protect those who don’t want the protection.

Comment by Cool Papa Bell Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 12:20 pm
===Just wait till you read about white tail===

Had a post about that a week or so ago.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 12:25 pm
Get my booster shot, continue masking, avoid the crowds, and get curbside and drive-through shopping if available. That’s about all I can do.

Comment by DuPage Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 12:31 pm
===So at some point the mandates and restrictions do need to go away.===

Other countries have been trying to find the level of immunization that allows life to return to normal. Portugal and Spain seem to be spared the worst of the current European covid resurgence, and they are in the 85-90% range. Illinois and the US certainly not there yet. Let’s learn from them a little.

Comment by Jibba Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 12:43 pm
I am vaccincated and my kids can now get it so we are. The point of masks was kids couldn’t once that is done then we will be better. But I still don’t want to get it and if people throw masks out then maybe I will just stay home and save my money.

Comment by Publius Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 12:54 pm
Jibba–re Portugal: A very good friend was there on a Viking cruise in August. She said that everyone they saw in Portugal was wearing masks and following social distancing. Viking did daily testing and had stringent rules aboard ship. My friend and her husband were off the ship daily taking walking tours etc. they were not isolated but out with the citizens of Portugal in cities and towns large and small.

Comment by Nearly Normal Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 1:11 pm
I spent some time in Colorado in June, and I can tell you exactly what the problem is:

The unvaccinated are required to wear masks, the unvaccinated arent, and everyone who is unvaccinated lies and refuses to wear a mask indoors because there is no way to verify their vaccination status.

Early on in the pandemic, Chicago was a center of the initial outbreak, along with Seattle and New York City. Because we didnt know as much then ans we do about how to combat COVID, Illinois had one of the highest death rates in the country, atleast until June, 2020.

Thanks to Pritzker’s leadership, Illinois has pushed longer and harder than most states to protect public safety, and while other Governors have allowed COVID to run rampant, Illinois has taken aggressive action that made our surges less severe.

The comparisons of deaths per capita in 2021 between Illinois and other states is mindblowing.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 1:35 pm
Yellow Dog Democrat- unfortunately, I think you are correct - the unvaxxed will lie about their status to avoid any mitigations. Sad story - one of my lifelong friends is not vaxxed and claims “natural immunity” due to a mild infection 18 months ago. When I asked him how he was able to dine in Hawaii (which requires vax) he said they could “see the immunity in his eyes,” meaning, of course, that he lied. Broke my heart that somebody I used to respect is now such a bad person.

Comment by WestBurbs Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 1:49 pm
I was in Portugal at the end of Sep. 87% vaccinated. Mask mandate in place. No one beefed at all. Looks like they care about their fellow citizens. Unlike here. I believed they lifted the mask mandate recently.

Comment by James the Intolerant Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 2:37 pm
I had a head slapping moment of revelation while I was gassing my 150, and watching folks pause as they walked into Casey’s this morning: It’s hard to spit when you step out of the pickup with a mask on.

Comment by Stix Hix Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 3:13 pm
Our extended family Thanksgiving just got cancelled due to the rise in hospitalizations and the fact that half of the expected attendees refuse to get vaccinated. I’m disappointed as I’ve not seen our vaccinated nephew and his family since this all started. Our immediate family is vaccinated. I just got the Moderna booster last week. Two nights of severe chills. Two days of headaches. Still worth it to me.
I agree with those that think January and February will show a surge. However, I think it’s already started due to Halloween. It will continue due to Thanksgiving and December will see family gatherings and parties all month long.
I just don’t know how we get out of this as long as people believe misinformation and decide not to get vaccinated based on their political party affiliation. Although I also think a large portion of the unvaccinated never voted before 2016.

Comment by thoughts matter Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 4:40 pm
Thanks for writing this, Rich. It will be curious to see how many newspapers try to bury it because it doesn’t match the ideology espoused by the owners of said papers.(Community News Group, I’m looking at you.)

My 2 cents on masking and infection levels: I live in Champaign-Urbana, and we have high levels of masking here. (I would guess easily 60-80%, depending on where you are and who you’re with.) We also have high levels of vaccination, and parents are eagerly pursuing vaccination for kids 5-12.

On November 6th, there was a story in the Effingham paper. Effingham County reported 71 Covid-19 cases the day before. As many of the readers here know, Effingham County has low levels of masking and vaccination.

On November 5th, Champaign County reported 71 Covid-19 cases.

Champaign County has 6 times the population of Effingham County.

Effingham County folks like to say the counties have equal levels of transmission and illness.

If that were true, Effingham County would have had 12 cases on November 5th

The reality is that Effingham County had the equivalent of 426 cases.

For the life of me, I can’t understand why the folks in rural areas are so eagerly trying to kill each other.

But the howling of the shrinking of Rural Illinois, and reshaped Congressional districts?

If you think it’s bad now, it’s going to be 10 times worse in 2031, when their populations decline even further from Covid-19.

Comment by Lynn S. Monday, Nov 15, 21 @ 7:32 pm