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BLS admits it underestimated growth by 626,000 jobs

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Illinois

* First we find out that the US Census Bureau was drastically overestimating annual population losses for states like Illinois, and now this…

The government sharply underestimated job gains for most of 2021, including four months this summer in which it missed more job growth than at any other time on record.

In the most recent four months with revisions, June through September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported it underestimated job growth by a cumulative 626,000 jobs — that’s the largest underestimate of any other comparable period, going back to 1979. If those revisions were themselves a jobs report, they’d be an absolute blockbuster.

In an average month before the pandemic, estimates would be revised by a little over 30,000 jobs, or just 0.02 percent of all the jobs in the United States. The recent revisions to the jobs reports have been much larger.

The missing jobs surfaced through revisions to the widely watched non-farm payrolls number that BLS releases each month. The data is considered preliminary until it has been revised twice. The fixes are typically minor, but recent revisions have been big enough to turn a substantial slump into a surprising surge.

Unreal.

posted by Rich Miller
Tuesday, Nov 16, 21 @ 2:29 pm

Comments

It’s a little reassuring it happened in the summer of 2021, not 2020 so we know it was a mistake and now presidential political meddling.

Comment by Dan Johnson Tuesday, Nov 16, 21 @ 2:37 pm
When trust in government is seemingly at an all-time low, stuff like this doesn’t help.

Also, with unemployment at near record lows across the country, why do people keep telling pollsters that the economy stinks?

Comment by 47th Ward Tuesday, Nov 16, 21 @ 2:41 pm
“Admit” makes it sound nefarious when it sounds like the data has just been harder to estimate in the pandemic

Comment by SWIL_Voter Tuesday, Nov 16, 21 @ 2:52 pm
Maybe Rauner Industry was in charge of data collection.

Comment by BTO2 Tuesday, Nov 16, 21 @ 3:06 pm
==Also, with unemployment at near record lows across the country, why do people keep telling pollsters that the economy stinks? ==

because prices are up on goods that people buy every week.

Like, there are giant signs that tell us how much gas costs, lol. It’s dumb, but it’s what it is.

Essentially, we decided to pay for the pandemic thru inflation now. And it was probably the right call, but, y’know, the voters are gonna do what they’re gonna do.

Comment by Arsenal Tuesday, Nov 16, 21 @ 3:09 pm
The supply and demand curve is way out of line. Demand is way up but supply hasn’t come back in line yet.

Comment by Publius Tuesday, Nov 16, 21 @ 3:27 pm
===but supply hasn’t come back in line yet===

Those 626K jobs would belie your claim.

Comment by Rich Miller Tuesday, Nov 16, 21 @ 3:33 pm
The ADP payroll reports feels like it’s been better last few months but the difference with BLS seems to be narrowing.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/03/private-payrolls-up-571000-in-october-on-jump-in-hospitality-hires-topping-395000-estimate-.html

BLS numbers are from their national surveys, ADP report is aggregating and extrapolating from the many businesses they provide payroll services too (which probably skews small to mid-size biz).

The pandemic hasn’t just messed with supply chains.

Comment by ChicagoBars Tuesday, Nov 16, 21 @ 4:32 pm
The pandemic has had an impact on course of normal business, including conducting and reporting unemployment data. Good to get this corrected.

Comment by Friendly Bob Adams Tuesday, Nov 16, 21 @ 6:19 pm
Maybe. Just maybe. Old Blue was correct.

Comment by Blue Dog Wednesday, Nov 17, 21 @ 6:22 am
=== Those 626K jobs would belie your claim. ===

Demand is insane.

Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Wednesday, Nov 17, 21 @ 9:36 pm