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* We talked about the BLS problems a couple of days ago. Here’s IDES…
The Illinois Department of Employment Security (IDES) announced today that the unemployment rate fell -0.2 percentage point to 6.0 percent, while nonfarm payrolls increased by +40,900 in October, based on preliminary data provided by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and released by IDES. The preliminary report for September monthly payrolls was revised from +9,200 to +11,000 jobs. The September unemployment rate was also revised from the preliminary report, decreasing from 6.8 percent to 6.2 percent, as a result of a large downward revision that the BLS introduced to September statewide unemployed. More information on the September unemployment rate revision can be found in the attachment to this news release.
The October payroll jobs estimate and unemployment rate reflects activity for the week including the 12th. The BLS has published FAQs for the October payroll jobs and the unemployment rate.
In October, the three industry sectors with the largest over-the-month gains in employment were: Professional and Business Services (+17,700), Leisure and Hospitality (+8,400) and Trade, Transportation and Utilities (+7,700). The industry sectors that reported the monthly payroll declines were: Information (-1,500) and Educational and Health Services (-500). […]
The state’s unemployment rate was +1.4 percentage points higher than the national unemployment rate reported for October, which was 4.6 percent, down -0.as 2 percentage point from the previous month. The Illinois unemployment rate was down -2.1 percentage points from a year ago when it was at 8.1 percent.
Compared to a year ago, nonfarm payroll employment increased by +190,300 jobs, with gains across nearly all major industries. The industry groups with the largest jobs increases were: Leisure and Hospitality (+60,800), Professional and Business Services (+50,000), and Trade, Transportation and Utilities (+37,200). Financial Activities (-5,200) was the only industry group that reported jobs losses. In October, total nonfarm payrolls were up +3.4 percent over-the-year in Illinois and +4.1 percent in the nation.
The number of unemployed workers was down from the prior month, a -3.4 percent decrease to 370,400, and was down -27.7 percent over the same month for one year ago. The labor force was up +0.1 percent over-the-month and was down -1.6 percent over-the-year. The unemployment rate identifies those individuals who are out of work and seeking employment. An individual who exhausts or is ineligible for benefits is still reflected in the unemployment rate if they actively seek work.
* The above-referenced attachment…
Explanation of the revision to the September 2021 Illinois statewide unemployment rate
Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has examined state labor force data for unusual monthly changes, also referred to as outliers, and made monthly adjustments based on a statistical evaluation of the monthly changes. Without these adjustments, the BLS statewide labor force models would have discounted a portion of the pandemic impact and would not have reflected accurately the current labor force conditions. Historically, these types of adjustments to monthly state labor force data occur during the annual benchmarking in February of each year, but they have been implemented on a monthly basis since the beginning of the pandemic to be more responsive to the recession’s impact.
In January 2021, BLS introduced an adjustment to the State of Michigan’s labor force model in response to a detected outlier. This adjustment inadvertently created distortions to statewide labor force estimates for Michigan and other states within the East North Central Division (Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and Wisconsin) for January and all subsequent months through September 2021. One part of the monthly statewide labor force estimation process involves adjusting monthly statewide employed and unemployed estimates to equal monthly Census Division employed and unemployed levels. In turn, Census Division employed and unemployed estimations are adjusted to national monthly employed and unemployed estimates, which ensures that the sum of all states equals national employed and unemployed levels.
The distortions to the state labor force estimates occurred gradually through September 2021 but were only recently identified by the BLS after Illinois and another East North Central Division state raised concerns about their monthly 2021 statewide labor force estimates. The BLS has found that distortions to the Illinois labor force estimates are limited to January-September 2021.
Effective October 2021, BLS changed its approach to detecting and adjusting for outliers in monthly statewide labor force data. This change has reduced distortions to the revised September 2021 statewide labor force estimates and the preliminary October 2021 statewide labor force estimates for Illinois and other states in the East North Central Division. The distortions made to January–August 2021 statewide labor force estimates will be modified during the annual benchmarking process in February 2022.
* By the way, not everyone was revised upward…
The federal government has corrected Michigan’s unemployment rate upward by 1.7 percentage points, above the U.S. average.
Federal officials cited an outlier in statistical modeling amid sharp job swings during the coronavirus pandemic.
The September unemployment rate is now 6.3%, but it had been 4.6% — below the national rate. The October number, also released Wednesday, dipped to 6.1%.
Oof.
posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Nov 18, 21 @ 2:36 pm
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Coincides with the September 4 ending in enhanced PUA benefits.
Comment by Phenomynous Thursday, Nov 18, 21 @ 2:54 pm
Not according to countless studies which showed that states that cut expanded benefits early did worse at job creation than those that kept the benefits.
Comment by Chicago Cynic Thursday, Nov 18, 21 @ 3:16 pm
Don’t know how accurate those studies are now…
“The government sharply underestimated job gains for most of 2021, including four months this summer in which it missed more job growth than at any other time on record.”
https://capitolfax.com/2021/11/16/bls-admits-it-underestimated-growth-by-626000-jobs/
Comment by Phenomynous Thursday, Nov 18, 21 @ 3:42 pm