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* Will Lee has perhaps the best out-migration story I’ve ever read in today’s Tribune. The anecdotes are interesting and relevant and so is the data…

Illinois in general saw some of the largest losses of Black residents during the last decade of any state except New York. As Chicago’s Hispanic and white populations have increased in the last decade, the city’s Black population dropped by 84,738 since 2010, the second highest decline after Detroit. […]

The outward trend is hardly a single phenomenon as the Midwest’s Black population has fallen by more than 130,000 people in the last 10 years, according to the Brookings Institution’s analysis.

The Atlanta, Dallas and Houston metro areas have gained the most Black residents between 2010 and 2020. […]

“We’ve never recovered from losing manufacturing jobs from the ‘70s on and … the manufacturing jobs disappearing was replaced by the era of mass incarceration where we sent people to prison for many offenses … many of them drug,” said Daniel Cooper, the planning council’s director of research. […]

The Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler metro area had the eighth highest gain of Black residents during the past 10 years, with more than 72,000 new arrivals. In addition to Chicago, Phoenix has gained a number of people from Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area. Many believe the new arrivals from blue states helped tip the 2020 presidential election for President Joe Biden.

If nothing else, Illinois Democrats need to look at this very real issue as a significant threat to their political dominance. In 2010, Gov. Pat Quinn defeated Republican Bill Brady by 31,834 votes. Would that have happened today?

Go read the whole thing.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Nov 22, 21 @ 9:16 am

Comments

The Great Migration of a century ago seems to be slowly happening in reverse. Back then, people came for jobs and to escape post Civil War issues. What I got out of the article was people are now leaving for jobs and to escape crime.

I said a while back those are going to be THE issues next election.

Comment by RNUG Monday, Nov 22, 21 @ 9:30 am
2022 could be the “make or break” year for either of the State Republican and Democratic Parties, as well as their national parties. It appears too early to tell which party is at risk - remember when everybody thought the Iron Curtain was unbreakable in the 1980’s, yet fell with months at the end of that decade?

Comment by Ares Monday, Nov 22, 21 @ 9:40 am
Crime issue.. why people are leaving.. why suburban Dems are vulnerable.

Comment by Wow Monday, Nov 22, 21 @ 9:40 am
They don’t have mass incarceration in Texas now?

Comment by Three Dimensional Checkers Monday, Nov 22, 21 @ 9:47 am
Most definitely a crime issue. I live in the city. That is the main topic on everyones mind and lips. Can’t avoid this discussion no matter how hard you try.

Comment by allknowingmasterofraccoondom Monday, Nov 22, 21 @ 9:48 am
- Wow - Monday, Nov 22, 21 @ 9:40 am:
- allknowingmasterofraccoondom - Monday, Nov 22, 21 @ 9:48 am:

If you listed reading for comprehension on your resume, remove it.

Comment by Shield Monday, Nov 22, 21 @ 9:49 am
Hate to burst the bubble forming here, but didn’t we see in the census that most population loss in illinois is coming from downstate? And if crime were the motivator, why would they be moving to places that also have high crime rates? Lol

Comment by SWIL_Voter Monday, Nov 22, 21 @ 9:54 am
crime. violence. theft.

Comment by ;) Monday, Nov 22, 21 @ 9:55 am
So is Illinois going to trend rightward this decade with the loss of black population? I know gains in Illinois have been in counties where Dems have dominated recently.

Comment by Voting2022 Monday, Nov 22, 21 @ 10:07 am
Time to double down on reforming our racist criminal justice policies and increasing the punishment for the epidemic of hate crimes that are driving African Americans out of Chicago. Defunding police departments across Illinios must be a top priority to restore trust in law enforcement.

Comment by Frumpy White Guy Monday, Nov 22, 21 @ 10:11 am
> In 2010, Gov. Pat Quinn defeated Republican Bill Brady by 31,834 votes. Would that have happened today?

How many Democratic Representatives did DuPage County have in 2010?

Comment by supplied_demand Monday, Nov 22, 21 @ 10:15 am
Spend five minutes googling crime trends from 2010 to the present and you’ll see crime is down statewide and nationally over that period.

Comment by Quibbler Monday, Nov 22, 21 @ 10:17 am
== Would that have happened today? ==

Legit question. Most of that population loss was replaced by Hispanic growth and white urban professionals — two reliable Dem voting blocks, but not as reliable as black voters.

Comment by Roman Monday, Nov 22, 21 @ 10:18 am
The article says that the black population loss comes from lower wage workers, but all the people it profiles are pretty middle class. Crime is probably one issue, but it sounds like cost of living is bigger. Unfortunately, I don’t think any political faction in Chicago has a great solution to this problem.

Comment by Three Dimensional Checkers Monday, Nov 22, 21 @ 10:25 am
No matter what the race, the concern should be for out-migration, period.

In particular, the challenge is that is younger people don’t feel opportunity in their community or state, they will depart.

That migration only accelerates as the younger generation has children. Either the new parents move back to the safety net of the grandparents, or the grandparents depart to be close to their children as they approach old age.

For both those reasons, we need to double down on providing the younger generation with both job opportunities AND affordable housing options.

Comment by Downstate Monday, Nov 22, 21 @ 10:26 am
“Defunding police departments”

Every Republican in America hopes this is the Democratic approach. Al Sharpton said it best….

“defund the police is something a latte liberal may go for as they sit around the Hamptons discussing this as an academic problem. But people living on the ground need proper policing.”

Comment by The Fellow Edgar Monday, Nov 22, 21 @ 10:26 am
“Spend five minutes googling crime trends from 2010 to the present and you’ll see crime is down statewide and nationally over that period.”

Yes but we have a narrative to maintain, and our beyond worthless mass media is clinging to it for dear life. Just turn on your TV, it’s a slaughterhouse out there. We’re all gonna die!

Comment by Larry Bowa Jr. Monday, Nov 22, 21 @ 10:33 am
Democrats….and big entertainment in general….are ignoring population statistics. Hispanics are the largest minority group in the U.S., the largest voting group in the U.S. and those facts are also true for the city of Chicago. Yet the programming and the posturing of pols is greatly to a smaller minority group. Hispanics do not just watch Spanish language channels. This is a loss of direct outreach and increasingly a source of pique from Hispanics. figure out a different approach.

Comment by Amalia Monday, Nov 22, 21 @ 10:37 am
“the concern should be for out-migration, period.”

Why. Growth for the sake of growth is meaningless.

There was an article posted here maybe a year ago showing the census data shows what appears to be a new class of metro area developing.

Losing people, but gaining prosperity and wealth.

Sometimes, less is more.

The article even tries to obscure that fact by conflating ‘the state’ with ‘the metro area’ in adjacent sentences as if they are experiencing the same thing. Discussing the population loses in the state, and the gains in the metro areas of other states. Rural areas are getting hammered with population losses, while the metro chicago area is still rather stable.

Comment by TheInvisibleMan Monday, Nov 22, 21 @ 10:47 am
People who get all of their “news” from tv need to just stop. It’s not all crime and what’s going on at Dancing with the Stars. Other things are happening.

Comment by Anonymous Monday, Nov 22, 21 @ 10:50 am
@ Three Dimensional Checkers

I was going to come here to say the exact same thing. All of these out migration stories feature the same middle and upper class voices while ignoring the low wage workers on the margins allegedly moving in droves.

That being said, this is a relatively well-reserached and balanced article on a topic that is much more complicated than the right would like it to be. (For example, did you know that 154 of 254 counties in Texas saw their populations drop since 2010. Obviously, the state is growing at enormous rates, but folks ain’t moving there to live out in the boonies.)

Comment by Chicago Blue Monday, Nov 22, 21 @ 10:54 am
== Phoenix has gained a number of people from Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area.==

This would be a move from lower crime to higher crime

Comment by SWIL_Voter Monday, Nov 22, 21 @ 10:58 am
Quinn will always bet Brady of Bloomington cause he wanted to harm our dogs. Now he wants to sneak into the SOS. Wake up

Comment by Annonin' Monday, Nov 22, 21 @ 10:58 am
=== Hispanics are the largest minority group in the U.S., the largest voting group in the U.S.===

Unless I misunderstood what you meant by “largest voting group”, this is 100% false.

Comment by Bad Habits Monday, Nov 22, 21 @ 11:03 am
===crime. violence. theft.===

Yeah, none of that in Atlanta and Houston. Right….

Comment by Ducky LaMoore Monday, Nov 22, 21 @ 11:04 am
I always get frustrated when I see these stories. As much as anything, they represent the manifestation of the “race to the bottom” being led by low-tax, low-service states. Yeah, it’s cheaper to live in Indiana than Illinois, so… where are the jobs there? Teachers, nurses, therapists - most of the professionals living there will be crossing into IL for work because it pays more. Eventually, something has to give, and it won’t be good. IL will decline due to the lack of tax revenue and economic activity that shifted to parasitic states like Indiana. When the high paying jobs disappear, believe me when I say that Indiana isn’t going to be providing them.

Not that Illinois is perfect. But the strategy deployed by many states in the South (and Indiana) relies on States like Illinois paying more in tax dollars to the federal, state, and local governments, creating good jobs and supporting their communities. When they eventually suck us dry, what is the plan then?

Comment by Pappy Monday, Nov 22, 21 @ 11:22 am
Prosperity and wealth don’t vote. May influence a vote or three, but they have yet to cast a ballot.

Comment by Huh? Monday, Nov 22, 21 @ 12:02 pm
Dismiss crime fears at your own peril. The number of people shot (either wounded or killed) went from 2600 in 2019 to 4155 in 2021 and we still have a month left in the year.

The crime increase is real and it disproportionately impacts black communities. Englewood has seen 56 homicides and 300 shootings this year for a neighborhood of 25,000 people. That homicide rate would put it as the most dangerous city to live in in the world.

Comment by Chicagonk Monday, Nov 22, 21 @ 12:12 pm
== The crime increase is real and it disproportionately impacts black communities. ==

How do you account for the bulk of those losses that occurred from 2010-2020 when the crime rate was falling?

Comment by SWIL_Voter Monday, Nov 22, 21 @ 12:17 pm
==Quinn will always bet Brady of Bloomington cause he wanted to harm our dogs.==

Then after he was narrowly elected he then wanted to harm our pensions and retirement security.

Comment by NonAFSCMEStateEmployeeFromChatham Monday, Nov 22, 21 @ 12:33 pm
@SWIL - Not sure what point you are trying to make. Are you dismissing that crime disproportionately impacts black communities? Or are you dismissing that people are moving due to crime? There are a multitude of reasons people move and while not many people likely move only because of crime, it is certainly a factor for those in the article and that I’m sure did have an impact on the census results

Comment by Chicagonk Monday, Nov 22, 21 @ 1:46 pm
===this is a relatively well-reserached and balanced article===

Yeah I thought it was a good article too. Definitely worth a read. I am just skeptical of everything. I think capitalism is turning half of Chicago into Boston or San Francisco in terms of cost of living and this migration is an effect of that.

Comment by Three Dimensional Checkers Monday, Nov 22, 21 @ 1:55 pm
To the guy recommending defunding the police, buddy you’re on the wrong track. That will cost you more votes than it will win you.

Comment by The Dude Abides Monday, Nov 22, 21 @ 2:32 pm
=== Illinois Democrats need to look at this very real issue as a significant threat to their political dominance.===

Not gonna’ happen. That would require them to face the problems facing the State that those of us moving out have known for years.

Comment by Just Me 2 Monday, Nov 22, 21 @ 2:37 pm
I was in New Orleans a few weeks ago. The amount of Chicago transplants there blew my mind.

Comment by High Socks Monday, Nov 22, 21 @ 2:57 pm
=== The amount of Chicago transplants there===

They’re everywhere. Did you watch the LA football game last night? Far more Steelers fans in the stands than Charger backers.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Nov 22, 21 @ 3:07 pm
Remember the net outmigration of higher ed students runs around 17,000 a year.

Comment by Addison Woodward Monday, Nov 22, 21 @ 5:15 pm