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Hospitalizations appear to have plateaued since last Wednesday (but at a very high level)

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* Hospitalizations still look like they might possibly be plateauing. Thursday’s hospitalizations were 7,096, down two from last Wednesday. They edged up just a little bit over the weekend and now they’re at 7,114, which is essentially back to where they were on Wednesday. But that’s still basically a record number of people in the hospital. Much the same is happening with ICU beds and ventilators. Hopefully, the trend starts moving the other way soon. Here’s Marni Pyke at the Daily Herald…

New cases of COVID-19 reached 77,833 over the weekend with 207 more people dying from the respiratory disease, the Illinois Department of Public Health reported.

Illinois hospitals were treating 7,114 COVID-19 patients Sunday night. The highest tally in Illinois since the pandemic began was 7,170, recorded on Saturday night, coming amid a surge in patients contracting the highly contagious omicron variant of COVID-19.

The state’s seven-day case positivity rate decreased to 13.4% compared to 15.2% Friday. The dip reflects in part a record number of COVID-19 tests processed Saturday totaling 488,873.

The IDPH reported 29,011 new cases on Saturday, 29,585 on Sunday and 19,237 on Monday. Deaths came to 98 on Saturday, 75 on Sunday, and 34 on Monday. The state does not update data on weekends.

…Adding… Hannah Meisel digs into the numbers here.

posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Jan 10, 22 @ 3:29 pm

Comments

This is hopefully good news. It seems that there is a sharp drop after the sharp increase so let’s hope that’s where we are going while planning for contingencies. The US hasn’t dropped as fast as other countries in previous waves, but the disruption this time is hopefully short.

Comment by ArchPundit Monday, Jan 10, 22 @ 3:32 pm
Talked to a friend in South Africa. Their latest wave passed relatively quickly. Hopefully will be the same here.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/south-africa

Comment by illdoc Monday, Jan 10, 22 @ 3:43 pm
===South Africa===

Lots of differences, including that they are in the midst of summer.

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Jan 10, 22 @ 3:44 pm
Yeah, hopefully in my comment is doing a lot of work.

Comment by ArchPundit Monday, Jan 10, 22 @ 3:44 pm
Well let’s hope that this is in fact the last variant of concern. And I put the emphasis on hope as well because I think it’s about all we have left.

Comment by Pundent Monday, Jan 10, 22 @ 3:51 pm
How many of those in Illinois hospitals were admitted from Covid as opposed to those admitted for something else and incidentally tested positive after admittance. It’s been reported in New York that roughly half of Covid admissions were people admitted for other reasons and then tested positive. According to Governor BAKER, Massachusetts will also report those things separately. It seems to me a good idea.

Comment by Captain Who Monday, Jan 10, 22 @ 3:54 pm
Sorry, I must have fat thumbed all caps for Baker.

Comment by Captain Who Monday, Jan 10, 22 @ 3:57 pm
Here’s a hopeful number: The rolling 7-day average for percent daily increase in hospital admissions peaked at 4.75% on Dec 31. Since then, that average has been gradually and steadily declining. It is currently 1.7%. While still an increase, it indicates the curve has been bending in the right direction.

Comment by Pot calling kettle Monday, Jan 10, 22 @ 4:10 pm
Even if someone went into the hospital and then tested positive, that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be counted. What we don’t know is if they would have been released already if they didn’t have covid. In other words, had the other issue been treated and they are only still there because of covid.
I’m getting informed about more people testing positive and being hospitalized in my circle of friends( or their circle of friends) than ever before. That is meaningful to me. The plateau may be around but not in my area.

Comment by thoughts matter Monday, Jan 10, 22 @ 4:22 pm
I am hoping the pretty bad weather in Chicago recently is forcing people to stay home voluntarily. A polar vortex would not be the worse thing right now because home people would want to stay in their houses all day (or at least I would).

Comment by Three Dimensional Checker Monday, Jan 10, 22 @ 4:36 pm
@Pot Calling Kettle -

That is an over-simplified model, and its that kind of over-simplified modelling that has led to bad policy making.

What we see reported as “a curve” is a bunch of different outbreaks involving multiple sub-communities in overlapping geographies. Having one-or-more populations with outbreaks in decline can mask other communities with outbreaks on the rise. Remember when we thought COVID was under control in 2020 because high case numbers in the Black community were masked by relative wellness in the much larger White community?

On December 30th, Whites made up only 20% of new COVID cases in Chicago, even though they are just under 50% of population in the city, and even though they have far better access to testing.

I believe the racial disparity in COVID in Chicago is part of the reason we have policy disparities between Lightfoot and the CTU.

We know that the incubation period of Omicron is half that of Delta, and we also know the average hospital stay is about half that of Delta, but its unclear whether the lag between a positive test and a hospital admission has changed.

It used to be about 18 days, and so if you want to know whether hospital rates were really declining or not, all you had to do was go back to see what the positive test result curve was doing 18 days ago.

Does anyone know how many days it was between the peak in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths in European countries?

Comment by Thomas Paine Monday, Jan 10, 22 @ 5:12 pm
===even though they are just under 50% of population in the city===

Um, no. 31.4%

Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Jan 10, 22 @ 5:16 pm
It’s bad, close friend and my cousin tested positive over the weekend for 2nd time. Friend was positive in October and cousin in September. Both wear masks and had their booster shots.

Comment by BTO2 Monday, Jan 10, 22 @ 5:48 pm
= How many of those in Illinois hospitals were admitted from Covid as opposed to those admitted for something else and incidentally tested positive after admittance. =

As pointed out in a NYT opinion essay, “. . . entering the hospital *with* the virus versus *for* the virus isn’t a relevant distinction if the hospital doesn’t have the beds or providers needed to care for its patients.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/10/opinion/omicron-covid-er.html

Comment by JoanP Monday, Jan 10, 22 @ 9:59 pm