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COVID-19 roundup: Hospitalization decrease picks up more speed

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* IDPH reports 6,258 hospitalizations as of midnight last night, down from 6,507 reported yesterday. That now gives us a 7-day rolling average decrease of 2.07 percent. Yesterday’s 7-day rolling average decrease was 1.04 percent.

* But stay frosty…

Illinois appears to be past the peak of its largest COVID-19 surge so far as cases and hospitalizations driven by the omicron variant are starting to decline, but officials urged continued caution as the state’s health care system remains under unprecedented strain.

Gov. J.B. Pritzker on Wednesday called the latest trend “a welcome change after precipitous increases over the prior seven weeks.” […]

“I want to be clear: I am cautiously optimistic about this decline,” Pritzker said during a news conference at the Thompson Center in the Loop. “But there are an awful lot of people still battling for their lives in hospitals across Illinois.”

* We don’t talk much about case numbers here for good reason. Dr. Ezike addressed this topic yesterday during the press conference when responding to questions about falling case numbers and hospitalizations…

So obviously, we are already seeing some of the things that we’d like to see in terms of downward trends in hospitalizations. Again, I am absolutely moving away from the cases because we know that that’s not even the full story, given all the home test and all the positives that are happening at home that are not recorded in any of our Department of Public Health databases. But the hospitalizations, you can’t hide a hospitalization. And so as we look at those hospitalizations and understand where those numbers are going, that is definitely a clear signal of the direction we’re moving in. And we can be moving downward now, but as you know, people have appropriately asked, ‘But what about the next one?’

With that being said, my brother Devin sent me this fascinating graph created by Eastern Illinois University’s Ryan Burge. It covers case trends in Illinois counties from December 15 to yesterday. While far from a perfect tracker, some counties still look like they are in big trouble. Click the pic for a larger image…

Burge said counties in blue are those where the total number of cases yesterday was at least 20 percent lower than that county’s worst day of the omicron surge. “That’s my attempt at trying to delineate which counties are over the peak now.”

* Advocate Aurora Health employees have posted pleas to get vaccinated on YouTube. Here’s one…

Another is here. (Hat tip: Crain’s.)

* Today’s quotable

“The number one rule of virus economics,” economist Austan Goolsbee says: “If you want to help the economics, you’ve got to get control of the virus.”

The first half of 2021, when COVID seemed to abate, economic signs were good. But “delta and omicron stalled that progress, and indicators are pointing downwards as the impact of omicron continues. When the data come out for January, it’s going to show a slowdown,” Goolsbee, a professor of economics at the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business and a former economic advisor to President Barack Obama, says on the latest episode of the A.D. Q&A podcast.

“Consumer spending, which had been pretty strong, dropped almost 2% for the month. That’s a pretty dramatic shift on a one-month basis. That’s before omicron kind of reached its peak. I’d think we’re going to get a slowdown from the next data.”

Jacking up interest rates right now would be like using a hammer to paint a house.

…Adding… Get boosted…

State Sen. Jason Barickman (R-Bloomington) says he and his wife, along with their daughter, tested positive for the virus last week. […]

“Started with a soar throat, led to a cough that developed into a deep, rough cough. I had fever spikes throughout the day for several days and an achy body and headache,” said Barickman.”

Barickman says he and his wife are vaccinated but have not received the booster shot.

I hope all are on the mend. Be well!

* More…

* How to get free N95 masks from the government starting next week

* Chicago Public Schools to shorten quarantine time for students and staff as city passes omicron peak

* CPS sees huge spike in students signed up for COVID testing since Chicago Teachers Union walked out

* How do you make art during a pandemic? Carefully: Chicago’s theaters, concert halls, and other venues navigate mask-wearing for performers and patrons, testing for COVID and sometimes canceling shows amid the omicron surge.

posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Jan 20, 22 @ 12:45 pm

Comments

One thing that stands out to me about Devin’s charts is how abysmal some county-level reporting is. You shouldn’t see the levels jerk up and own like that. That is all because they’re doing a poor job collecting the data.

Comment by Arsenal Thursday, Jan 20, 22 @ 12:50 pm
Case counts aren’t really a great indicator any more with how prevalent home tests are. I have 5 family members who tested positive with home tests and all 5 didn’t report it anywhere. Luckily all of their cases were mild, so they avoided hospitalization.

Hospitalizations and Deaths are going to be key indicators, so it’s good that they are going down, but I need to see it go down more over time before I assume the worst is over. We probably saw the peek impact from Christmas time over these last couple weeks due to older and more vulnerable people who don’t get out much going into homes of their asymptomatic families who may have given it to them.

Comment by AD Thursday, Jan 20, 22 @ 12:57 pm
Re: the Burge tracker: A lot of the counties in red (and some blue) had a huge spike on the most recent day. Is that an effect of the holiday?

Comment by thechampaignlife Thursday, Jan 20, 22 @ 1:03 pm
I realize it is crass to immediately put this in a political frame, but the Aurora Police Department just announced its second line-of-duty death from COVID in as many weeks. Should Mayor Irvin decide to face the press, his previous remarks in support of public health combined with his blue-backing campaign and what the primary base believes about the pandemic may be a very tricky needle to thread.

Comment by Roadrager Thursday, Jan 20, 22 @ 1:05 pm
Case counts may be down in my county, but case counts in my school district are rising every other day.

Comment by Wensicia Thursday, Jan 20, 22 @ 1:08 pm
More anti-vaxxer backfiring:

https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/20/europe/czech-singer-death-deliberate-covid-infection-intl/index.html

She wanted to get to a “recently infected” status in order to avoid the vaccine so that she could attend public events.

Comment by Hieronymus Thursday, Jan 20, 22 @ 1:13 pm
==She wanted to get to a “recently infected” status in order to avoid the vaccine so that she could attend public events.==

As opposed to me being fully vaccinated and boosted, and looking forward to future boosters or a combo COVID/flu seasonal vaccine. While vowing to or have no desire to attend major public events with large crowds the rest of my life. That includes State Fair and the ilk. Never, never again. (Plus I am an introvert and don’t like crowded events either).

Comment by NonAFSCMEStateEmployeeFromChatham Thursday, Jan 20, 22 @ 1:57 pm
==While vowing to or have no desire to attend major public events with large crowds the rest of my life. That includes State Fair and the ilk. Never, never again==

Have fun cowering in your basement for the rest of your life.

Comment by Demoralized Thursday, Jan 20, 22 @ 2:11 pm
Demoralized,

Why be so dismissive. One can have a rich life without large gatherings. In fact I can think of nothing that has brought joy to my life. And that has become my new standard. Will this bring joy to my life or allow me to bring joy to someone else’s then perhaps. If not, pass. Of course that does not include work, I go there in my N95 when we are not remote.

Quite honestly I’d rather go for a bike ride, or read a book or play with my dog, work on my languages, just about anything than gather will people right now. Maybe when COVID fades, I’ll reconsider but maybe not. It’s been two years new habits have replaced old ones.

Comment by cermak_rd Thursday, Jan 20, 22 @ 2:25 pm
==Have fun cowering in your basement for the rest of your life.==

Always great to see the criticism falling on those afraid of a virus responsible for the deaths of millions, instead of on those gleefully spreading it with a deliberate disregard for others.

Comment by Roadrager Thursday, Jan 20, 22 @ 2:26 pm
And yet there’s still going to be a City Tournament at the Bank of Springfield Center this weekend. Despite Lanphier mostly unable to participate due to players being out for COVID protocols. And Omicron still raging.

Then again, if Springfield was to have a true city tournament then you would also invite Chatham Glenwood and Rochester to the City Tourney as well. (Pleasant Plains, Riverton, and New Berlin also take in Springfield addresses–and of course there’s Lutheran and Calvary–but those schools would be too small to compete against the CS8 city teams regularly. Although Calvary might have been able to win City during their powerhouse teams in the late 80s/early 90s when Jim Drew was coaching, if they were allowed to participate in it).

Comment by NonAFSCMEStateEmployeeFromChatham Thursday, Jan 20, 22 @ 2:26 pm
==And yet there’s still going to be a City Tournament at the Bank of Springfield Center this weekend.==

So don’t go

Comment by Demoralized Thursday, Jan 20, 22 @ 2:31 pm
We’re nowhere near it yet, but it was nice to hear Dr. Ezike start to turn the conversation ever so slightly towards learning to live with COVID. I don’t know when we start having that conversation in earnest and it certainly isn’t right now. But it’s nice to see that they are at least starting to think about what that might look like.

Comment by Demoralized Thursday, Jan 20, 22 @ 2:36 pm
==So don’t go==

That’s right. Because I support Glenwood.

Comment by NonAFSCMEStateEmployeeFromChatham Thursday, Jan 20, 22 @ 2:45 pm
Demoralized,

Ive given a lot of thought to it. I figure I’ll be rocking a N95 anytime I do not want to get sick. A lot more outdoor activities. Further refine my cooking skills so I only use restaurants if I don’t mind getting sick. No movie theaters because why would I? I have a nice tv at home and they aren’t really making a lot of original movies anymore. And even if they do it’ll eventually come out on streaming.

And a big summer festival for the family in July instead of winter holidays because rates tend to be low here, then. And probably no big public events unless it is an event that is going to bring unmitigated joy (which I can’t even imagine).

Oh and more travel to Europe. My piggy bank runneth over due to that whole swearing off unneeded shopping, events and restaurants thing.

Comment by cermak_rd Thursday, Jan 20, 22 @ 2:46 pm
==No movie theaters because why would I? ==

Plus by avoiding movie theaters you’re able to avoid the amusement park and stadium-like prices on concessions and tickets. Or if you’re in parts of downstate go to Rural King, see if they still have the huge bags of popcorn for a $1, buy a few of those, turn on some movies at home or streaming, and you save a significant percentage of your paycheck compared to one night at the movie theater.

Comment by NonAFSCMEStateEmployeeFromChatham Thursday, Jan 20, 22 @ 3:07 pm