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* I’ve also heard about this Senate Democratic poll. Here’s Pearson at the Trib…
“The other side is using crime as a bludgeon for the next election,” said a longtime Democrat who was not authorized to speak for the House majority, “and there’s a political reality that people want to address crime.”
The issue provides inroads to swing suburban districts that had once been reliable Republican territory but have changed demographically and ideologically in favor of Democrats in recent years.
But an internal poll conducted for Senate Democrats indicated that crime falls below taxes and other concerns among suburban voters, according to a senator who was not authorized to speak about internal caucus discussions. Only in Chicago was crime a top issue, the legislator said, in part because random gun violence being seen in parts of the city that have long been relatively unscathed by violence.
To counter Republican attacks, Democratic legislators are looking to take up issues in Springfield this spring that include carjacking, smash-and-grab retail theft and ghost guns, which can be manufactured from home kits without serial numbers or other ways to trace them.
There’s also an effort to provide increased funding for state and local police to both attract and retain officers after retirements of police hired with an influx of federal dollars in the mid-1990s.
* From my own conversation with a Democratic Senator…
Some of the negatives that they’re polling are polling like 55 percent. And when you get 55 percent on a negative message, that’s huge. […]
As soon as you cross into the suburbs [from the city], [crime] goes from the number one issue down to like number four. So, I mean, it’s still a strong four. It’s not like people don’t give a [crud] about it. They care. But there are a lot of other things. It’s taxes, corruption and inflation. […]
You can tell people are paying attention because they’re talking about supply chain issues and what China’s doing and [etc.] So they’re not just mad that prices are high. They feel like the government screwed up during the pandemic and that’s why prices are high.
And they’d be right about the government. That the feds have allowed meat and poultry monopolies to jack up prices so high is beyond messed up.
Now, it’s just one poll, and from everything I’ve heard from people who track this stuff, the Democrats are doing really, really bad in the suburbs right now. Like blowout bad. But it’s fascinating that the crime issue drops in the suburbs. And I’m betting there are a lot of very thankful Chicago Democrats that relatively few of their incumbents are facing primaries this year.
posted by Rich Miller
Friday, Mar 4, 22 @ 3:12 pm
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= Only in Chicago was crime a top issue, the legislator said=
Here you go OW
“Donnie Elgin -Did they break it out by state?
Are those numbers similar for Illinois?
Thanks”
Comment by Donnie Elgin Friday, Mar 4, 22 @ 3:18 pm
Welp, I appreciate that…
:)
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Mar 4, 22 @ 3:19 pm
Pretty surprised at this poll. As a suburbanite, we’ve seen far more serious crimes committed in the last few years…unthinkable stuff happening compared to a few years ago…..
Enough that many/most people I know have installed security systems in their homes.
Comment by A Friday, Mar 4, 22 @ 3:20 pm
Is it really that fascinating? Is Arlington Heights suffering from a massive crime wave?
Comment by Name/Nickname - May soon be required Friday, Mar 4, 22 @ 3:21 pm
To the post,
The poll before, I believe it was a GOP poll Rich had as a post, months ago, where crime, when broken down “regionally”, it was lower in the ‘burbs there too, in rankings.
It’s not that I’m (me, Individually) not sold on crime being the “end all - be all”, I do think regional issues that could sink Dems are greater in other ways, not just crime as *the* thing.
Florida today passed an abortion bill, curtailing in a time frame abortions, and I bring that up in the same idea that crime, here in Illinois, if SCOTUS rules in the summer on abortion laws in Texas and Mississippi, will that larger national narrative help Dems? I dunno. Will it help in a regional breakdown? Again, dunno.
But, Dems are in deep trouble. Today. That’s not really up fir a discussion.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Mar 4, 22 @ 3:25 pm
—–
Is Arlington Heights suffering from a massive crime wave?
—-
Yeah I went to the portillos right in the mean streets of arlington heights. Absolute war zone. You could tell people were scared to leave their house because the line to order a pepper and egg was only about 5-10 minutes.
Comment by dan l Friday, Mar 4, 22 @ 3:25 pm
Crime may poll lower overall in the suburbs - though I suspect crime polls much higher with “Moms”. Two things Moms in the suburbs care about - their kids’ education and crime. The shootings at Oak Brook Mall (where every teenager hangs out) sent shockwaves through DuPage. Shootings aren’t meant to happen in DuPage.
Comment by Rutger Hauer Friday, Mar 4, 22 @ 3:26 pm
===Two things Moms in the suburbs care about - their kids’ education and crime.===
You think abortion is THIRD in that list?
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Mar 4, 22 @ 3:27 pm
This totally tracks. Overall, the tough on crime and crime panic is a conservative talking point. I’d be surprised if this is even an issue that moves voters in any meaningful way. Even if dems in Chicago rank it as a higher priority It, I doubt it equates to votes for Republicans. We are too polarized for that. It feels and has felt like noise.
Comment by Left of what Friday, Mar 4, 22 @ 3:28 pm
It is not reality it is perception So you can be snarky about crime on the mean streets of Arlington Heights and you will be able to laugh about it when you are voted out
Comment by DuPage Saint Friday, Mar 4, 22 @ 3:30 pm
===Two things Moms in the suburbs care about - their kids’ education and crime.===
I’d say my anecdotal observation is the perception of inflation.
But I think how stuff with schools played out in the pandemic is going to be a bigger issue for everyone. Lots of strong feelings there. But there is definitely a perception that crime is a problem (emphasis on perception) and someone’s perception is their reality.
Comment by OneMan Friday, Mar 4, 22 @ 3:36 pm
This is not a surprise to anyone who noticed how Kim Foxx performed in relation to Biden.
Comment by City Zen Friday, Mar 4, 22 @ 3:40 pm
These are such unusual times the nuance of how questions are asked, and what day you ask them can have more impact than normal. Today’s headline of five dollar gas can be replaced tomorrow if there’s an act of violence in your suburb. It will be interesting between now and November.
Comment by SSL Friday, Mar 4, 22 @ 3:44 pm
==Like blowout bad.==
I think G. Elliot Morris put it best, “The 2022 midterms were decided on November 3, 2020.” The literature is largely congressionally-focused, but the fact remains that some people who are trying to paint this as some Democratic blank up just aren’t living in the reality of history for over half a century.
https://gelliottmorris.substack.com/p/the-2022-midterms-were-decided-on?s=r
And if you’re a person who is all about campaign effects, who is in high gear in March with a June primary and November general? This is not to say things will be good at all for Team Blue, but there’s still a long way until November.
Comment by Google Is Your Friend Friday, Mar 4, 22 @ 3:50 pm
=== But there is definitely a perception that crime is a problem (emphasis on perception) and someone’s perception is their reality.
Good point and I think there are problems with crime right now–it’s not as broad as people think, but we have seen shootings, organized shoplifting, and car jacking increase while many other crimes have dropped. My hope–and probably a hope, is that we target specific crimes and don’t just throw a lot of people in prison as we’ve done in the past.
My sense is that the crime problem is probably related to the school shutdowns, but I think people aren’t going to agree to wait and see if I’m right.
Comment by ArchPundit Friday, Mar 4, 22 @ 3:55 pm
A couple of things:
1. Too many Democrats are in denial about this. If you say it’s even a top 5 issue, you’re accused of being racist or being afraid of GOP talking points. This does not bode well for campaign strategy, if for no other reason than the mismatch between activists and the rest of the electorate.
2. Even if it isn’t polling higher, it certainly is an issue that affects the overall mood and intensity. You might not think it’s important but the people who do are sure as heck going to vote.
Comment by Torco Sign Friday, Mar 4, 22 @ 3:56 pm
Two big things that are coming up for the midterms are abortion rulings and whether TFG decides to campaign actively. Both of those could change the narrative, but hope is not a plan. Oh, and a third is a land war in Europe.
Comment by ArchPundit Friday, Mar 4, 22 @ 3:57 pm
If Republicans had some qualified candidates in Chicago, I think they could surprise some people in November. The perception is that crime is as bad as ever.
Comment by Chicagonk Friday, Mar 4, 22 @ 3:58 pm
-If Republicans had some qualified candidates in Chicago, I think they could surprise some people in November. The perception is that crime is as bad as ever.-
But they don’t, so it won’t be a deciding factor in legislative races all or mostly within the city. Bigger likelihood of impact in the next Mayor’s race and eventually the next State’s Attorney’s race. The bigger worry is if the Dems get depressed turnouts out of Chicago for the bigger races because of protest votes or apathy.
Comment by Ron Burgundy Friday, Mar 4, 22 @ 4:03 pm
Can the legislature please also address the large groups of motorcycles that invade the city of Chicago on a weekly basis? They come in from the suburbs and ride up on sidewalks and in parks.
This has been covered by numerous news outlets. They even have a name for themselves - “Chicago United”.
Comment by low level Friday, Mar 4, 22 @ 4:04 pm
== so it won’t be a deciding factor in legislative races all or mostly within the city.==
No but it could have an impact in the Governor’s race if the Republican candidate can pull Governor Pritzker’s margin down in Chicago.
Comment by Demoralized Friday, Mar 4, 22 @ 4:05 pm
Maybe because Lake County is a bit farther away from the city but this rings true, especially that last paragraph: the political conversations up here are mostly on the fed level and to the extent it’s local, it’s money issues. I don’t sense COVID/schools is moving voters. I always go back to California in the 70’s: they elect Jerry Brown, then two years later pass the harsh anti-tax Proposition 13. These things can turn quick.
Comment by lake county democrat Friday, Mar 4, 22 @ 4:09 pm
First, statewide GOPers need 20+% in the city, “crime” could help get that number.
Second…
===overall mood and intensity===
This is used when polling numbers aren’t quite ideal.
If that’s a measure, see me in the Summer with an abortion ruling or two.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Mar 4, 22 @ 4:09 pm
Would abortions be illegal in IL if SCOTUS overturns Roe? Gov and HB40 should guarantee the right to choose, right? Did I miss something?
Comment by Matthew Dean Friday, Mar 4, 22 @ 4:19 pm
=== Would abortions be illegal in IL if SCOTUS overturns Roe? Gov and HB40 should guarantee the right to choose, right? Did I miss something?===
Yeah, here’s the trick bag;
“It’s decided here in Illinois” - GOPer…
… base gets angry like they did with Rauner, loses votes.
“I agree with SCOTUS on (MS, TX, both) … - Women voters…
… get angry and are reminded that Republicans are dangerous to women’s health.
Pick your poison, but there’s a very good reason Illinois Republicans are less than vocal on abortion and these cases coming up. No good choices, no pun intended.
The only way it works… SCOTUS rules against both MS and TX laws… but that’s a big ask of the Clarence Thomas court
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Mar 4, 22 @ 4:23 pm
Second what Google is your friend said. Would also add that campaign effects are pretty marginal in general. Specific issue stances just don’t really move people in polarized environments, like modern American politics because partisanship overrides or gives you the position to take on an issue.
Comment by Left of what Friday, Mar 4, 22 @ 4:24 pm
== Gov and HB40 should guarantee the right to choose, right? Did I miss something?==
Matt, go see the video of Avery Bourne at the pro life march in Jan.
Comment by low level Friday, Mar 4, 22 @ 4:30 pm
- low level -
Good point on Bourne.
Comment by Oswego Willy Friday, Mar 4, 22 @ 4:32 pm
Fun to read all the experts opine about my district.
Comment by walker Friday, Mar 4, 22 @ 5:40 pm