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* I’ve already told subscribers some of what I think about the post-Saturday spin. Now, it’s your turn.
* Question: Why do you think Jim Oberweis lost the 14th CD special election?
* Here are some background stories, compiled by Kevin…
* Foster takes seat from GOP
* DCCC Files FEC Complaint Against Jim Oberweis and Oberweis Dairy
* Voters energized, repelled by slugfest
* Will the 18th District go Democratic like the 14th?
* Foster’s win spells trouble for GOP in House, Illinois
* Quick Reminder of What We Have in Oberweis: Just in case there’s anybody left out there who actually believes Jim Oberweis would make a dignified congressman, here’s a quick clip of him making fun of Bill Foster’s oft-halting speech by stuttering
* Foster beats Oberweis in Illinois’ 14th CD
* 14th District without a congressman for a month
* The day after upset victory, Bill Foster offers thanks
* Foster says win sends a message
* 14th District election sees low voter turnout
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 8:35 am
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He is Oberwies, losing elections is as natual to him as selling Ice cream!
He is not likeable. I am not the most conservative on here, but I am somewhat conservative and I do not trust him. He is a mean an dnasty person (at least he seems that way). He will say whatever it takes to try to win an election and he has a crazy look in his eyes. He would be an embarrasment to IL and that is saying a lot considering the other embarrassments we have repping the state.
Got straws?
Comment by Wumpus Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 8:41 am
Quite simply he is not likeable. Democratic year or not, a half way decent GOP candidate wins this race. I would not be surprised if many thousands of GOP voters either stayed home or crossed over for Foster because they just can’t stand Oberweis. While this may very well turn out to be a big Democratic year, I don’t think this result is necessarily evidence of it. It was I believe a race between a guy people can tolerate (or so they think right now anyway) versus one they can’t. Simple as that.
Comment by Ron Burgundy Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 8:41 am
Um, because he’s Jim Oberweis. Now that he will be nudged out of the 14th by GOP leadership, maybe he will make a run for it in the 11th against Debbie Halvorson.
Comment by K to the 3 Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 8:43 am
PS, who was his campaign team? Has Pascoe won anything ever? At least of major imprtance?
Comment by Wumpus Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 8:43 am
With no exit polling to go on, I bet Foster ran up big numbers among independents, was competitive among moderate Republicans and took 95%+ of the Dems in a district that has had some Democratic growth.
Foster is no great shakes; the war and Obamania helped him. But I think the top reason is Oberweis, a humorless, negative, uninspiring full-moon right-winger who is gratingly unattractive on TV.
Democrats out there, do yourself a favor, keep enjoying that tasty ice cream and he’ll keep running.
Comment by wordslinger Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 8:59 am
Mr. Oberweis and others of his ilk would be better off putting their money behind real public servants who share their political values rather than running for office themselves.
Comment by Fan of the Game Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 9:00 am
From his statewide campaigns, I say people are tired of seeing his face and tried to send him a message to GIVE IT UP! 0-for-4 gets you sent to the minors. I know down here by St. Louis he’s got ice cream stores in Missouri, but NONE in Illinois…yet he wants to be my milkman/latex salesman? Can’t there be a better place to burn through $$$ instead of in a campaign?
Comment by South of I-70 Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 9:01 am
oberweis lost because he started with high negatives, he divided the republican base (76% of self-identified republicans polled said they would vote for oberweis, according to foster’s pre-election poll — with 11% of republicans reporting a strongly unfavorable impression of him) and because foster ran a strong campaign, defining himself as mainstream (which negated oberweis’ attacks that he was extreme), creating the impression that he could win before election day. foster’s gotv efforts were sufficient to overcome any last minute appeal to base republicans through their 72 hour project…
Comment by bored now Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 9:02 am
Because the state republican party has done a HORRIBLE job at identifing people at the local level and grooming them for higher office. Lets look at the track record…..George Ryan being indited, they put Jim RYAN up for Governor. Next they run Judy, who really didn’t want the job. Who ran for the other offices???? Who do they have coming up the ranks? They are failing as party leaders by not finding younger people who are willing to stick their neck out at the local level. (except for the kid from Peoria) From my viewpoint they seem to run the same old names that quite honestly people are tired of.
The same is said for Sangamon County Republicans, they can’t get away from the same old names that people are tired of.
Comment by He makes Ryan Look like a Saint Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 9:03 am
Rich: I worked as an election judge and can tell you that it was a triple whammy. A.) Low voter turnout, and organized Democratic voters. B.) Anger over the need for a special election where many voiced frustration over Denny Hasterts not finishing his term and trying to stack the deck. C.) Many people stating that they would rather wait until november to vote for the same office rather than doing it twice.
I can’t tell you how many times I had to explain why the election was happening…let alone explaining why it was happening on Saturday versus a Tuesday, and in the end the cost of this debacle will be close to $30.00 per vote when you do the math district wide. Thanks again Governor.
Comment by Bass Man Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 9:03 am
According to our GOP friend at Illinoize, it is because The Combine willed it.
Actually, I agree that Obie was a pretty bad candidate and the current climate is not good for the GOP.
The real interesting race will be in November, where we see if this was due to lower turnout or if the areas are actually turning blue.
What amazes me about this race is that Pascoe claimed to have not seen it coming. That was an interesting choice of words.
Comment by Skeeter Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 9:04 am
I think it was the ice cream that did him in. Its been scientifically proven that ice cream and politics just don’t mix. Look how Ben & Jerry’s Americone Dream robbed us of our chance at President Colbert. http://www.benjerry.com/features/americone_dream_index.cfm
Comment by Learning the Ropes Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 9:04 am
Two main factors (among others)…
1. Oberweis is Oberweis. He’s managed over the past 6 years to turn the largest paper in the metro area solidly against and also lost the respect of the local papers. Only the Herald and Sun-Times endorsed him and even then both hemmed and hawed to a degree.
2. Dems are highly motivated. Obama and a few nearby Congressional candidates sent volunteers into the district. A great many candidates, leaders and activists raised money and otherwise also volunteered. Basically, Dems id’d their voters and then got out the vote.
Comment by Rob_N Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 9:07 am
Ropes makes a great point.
Comment by Kevin Fanning Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 9:08 am
I believe it was his first election try, he had an advertisement that prominently displayed his company (brand)… to me that was simply using fundraising money to turn into his pockets, by other means. He would not be a trustworthy figure in my view.
Comment by anon the non Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 9:08 am
Oberweis is perceived as a wealthy gadfly and is not likeable. Plus, I wonder how many of Lauzen’s supporters sat this one out. GOP divided here.
Comment by Ravenswood Right Winger Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 9:16 am
Oberweis is a horrible candidate who just comes off unlikeable in person.
The best candidate would have been Lauzen, for a special election held on a Saturday, you need a good ground game…Lauzen has it, Obi dosen’t.
While I hate to loose the 14th seat, and it is a huge blow for Republicans across Illinois, I personally hope this once and for all rids us of Oberweis in the Illinois GOP.
Comment by downstateyp Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 9:18 am
Jim Oberweis was the only Republican able to win the primary and the only Republican who couldn’t beat Bill Foster.
Comment by Commonsense in Illinois Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 9:19 am
Ravenswood Right Winger, I agree that some of St. Sen. Lauzen’s supporters probably sat out the election. I’m a member of the steering committee of the Illinois Center Right Coalition, and I’m glad that the ICRC endorsed Lauzen, since he has experience, as a state legislator, with a conservative voting record. However, since Lauzen lost the primary, he should have endorsed Oberweis and encouraged many of his volunteers to help Oberweis.
Comment by PhilCollins Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 9:25 am
Are we forgetting that Foster has developed a voter ID and turnout technique that elected a Dem in PA when others thought it impossible?
Probably someone can fill in the details.
Comment by Cal Skinner Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 9:26 am
It wasn’t ignored by the general public that Oberwies was Hastert’s guy. Voters don’t like deals and this appeared to be one.
Maybe they thought that Oberwies was just a puppet.
Plus, he has ran too many times, without any victories. It will be another loss in November,
Comment by Shelbyville Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 9:26 am
downstateyp-
If Lauzen was such a good candidate with a great ground game, why did Oberweis dispatch him so handily in the GOP regular and special primaries? If Hastert and the GOP machine were such a factor in Milk Dud winning the primary, they sure lost a lot of muscle in a month’s time, so I’m not buying it. Both GOP guys have high negatives, and a nasty primary fight led to some revenge votes and sitting out by Lauzen’s supporters who value principles over party, and they didn’t need much in a close election to tip it to Foster. Add to that Milk Dud’s general lack of appeal to swing voters, and there’s your 5000 vote margin. Also, to the Democrats’ credit, the Laesch supporters didn’t backlash against Foster like the Lauzen supporters did against Milk Dud, and their togetherness paid off.
The real question is, what happens in the next 7 months? My guess is that Foster is smart and will use Melissa Bean as a template for how to be a moderate, “establishment” Combine legislator in a right leaning district (if you are a John Kass fan, you will recognize this win as a win for the Combine more than a win for the D’s or a loss for the R’s - with 2 moneyed candidates entwined with the special interests, they couldn’t lose this one!). And there will be much weeping and gnashing of teeth on the GOP side as they try to gently dislodge Milk Dud to make way for a more likeable candidate in the November general, or failing that, try to put as much lipstick on the pig as possible.
Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 9:37 am
Cal Skinner-
You are absolutely correct that Foster approached this election as a science problem, and was able to target his audience with his brains. Not having the best social skills, he downplayed his weaknesses and used his strengths to his best advantage.
Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 9:41 am
Because there is a just God.
Comment by Anon Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 9:46 am
Oberweiss and Lauzen guranteed Foster a victory when they both went nuclear on each other. Oberweiss was a tough sell going into this (he has lost 3 elections so far). The GOP should have stepped in early to try and do a backroom deal to avoid the whole Lauzen Oberweiss debacle. Now that Obie lost, the GOP is already backing away from him, calling him unlikeable ect.
That said i think Obie could win. BUT, and this is a big but (no pun intended for ice cream fans), he needs a complete makeover wih his person and campaign style. We need to see a grandfatherly elder statesman playing in the park with kids; not a curdmudgeon demanding that the masses eat cake if they are hungry.
Comment by Ghost Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 9:47 am
I’ll agree with a lot of the comments above - except one. Hastert wasn’t a big negative factor except in the sense that he helped beat Lauzen and the Lauzen Kool-Aid drinkers (and Sen CPA himself) were royally ticked off. They’re (obviously) not enough to carry a GOP primary in the 14th but there are plenty of them who either skipped the election or voted for Foster.
I’ll add that the sense that Oberweis is anti-Latino really hurt him in Aurora, where he lost by 3,00 votes. I know some otherwise loyal GOP Latinos who loathe Oberweis.
Foster had a decent GOTV effort. We got a doorhanger (seen on Wurfwhile’s blog) and two real (not robo-) calls at my house on Saturday.
Finally, can I just say that I’m so happy this is over and I can answer my phone without it being Laura Bush(!), Barack Obama, Denny Hastert or Linda Chapa-LaVia telling me how to vote. It got to the point where I didn’t answer the phone for a week.
Comment by Stuck with Sen. CPA Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 9:50 am
He is o’fer for a reason. He either comes off like a smug billionaire, or a rich baffoon. Either way he has failed to connect with voters. The IL GOP needs an overhaul. They keep going picked Obergoober because he has money to spend so they would not have to do any work. Guess what, money gets you a close second. It does not engergize voters or campaign workers.
Comment by the Patriot Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 9:51 am
Oberweis has a rather high opinion of himself. It is his continuing effort to discredit others abilities and his continuous effort to eliminate their chances to succeed that keeps him in free fall from attaining office. In short, he is his own worst enemy.
Comment by Justice Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 9:53 am
http://www.prairiestateblue.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=4075
Laesch withdraws recount petition.
Comment by Bridget Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 9:53 am
Cal,
If he was the master to GOTV he would have beat Leasch by a much larger margin.
From what I have heard their GOTV effort for the general (and it was large) came from outside sources.
Comment by OneMan Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 9:58 am
Was it because of the Democrat’s ad campaign?
Nooooooooo!
Comment by Chicago Law Student Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 9:59 am
I think Oberweis lost for a variety of reasons:
1. He has not endeared himself to the electorate over the years due to doing stupid things like running for every office that comes up, targeting the immigrant population for political gain, and being less than honest in his campaigning. People just plain do not like Jim Oberweis.
2. People are ready to show the GOP the door all over the country. IL-14 is no exception.
3. Oberweis had a very slim ground game. I was all over the place out there and never saw anything on anyone’s doors, including on election day.
4. Oberweis trashed Lauzen and created some divisions in the already crumbling GOP. Lauzen refused to make nice with Oberweis and word on the street is that Lauzen supporters voted for Foster.
5. People like the idea of a Fermilab scientist as their Congressman.
6. Foster’s organization had over 600 people on the ground for GOTV on election day, from the sliver of western DuPage all the way out to Rock Falls. Again, I didn’t see ONE Oberweis canvasser.
7. Foster was able to match Oberweis dollar for dollar, running network TV buys and sending a full mail program. Foster’s message was slightly more positive and only had to point out Oberweis’ foibles over the years in the negative pieces.
8. Oberweis did not draw out a very effective narrative of his life an experiences. For example, does anyone know that Oberweis used to be a teacher? Me neither until a Republican committeeman told me so.
I’m sure there is more, but I think that’s the basic gist of it.
Comment by Undercover Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 10:01 am
“Why do you think Jim Oberweis lost the 14th CD special election?”
Oberweis and Foster were both sub-par candidates. Oberweis is also a sub-par person.
And Foster will be a better campaigner in November.
– SCAM
Comment by so-called "Austin Mayor" Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 10:06 am
dems finally found a candidate with a big enough straw to drink the money milkshake that the repubs were offering. physics plus money equals a win.
Comment by Amy Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 10:07 am
Oberweis is a lousy candidate. When you’re known as “Chopper Jim” and “The Abominable Milkman”, and are known as a candidate who likes to throw grenades when voters are looking for bipartisan solutions, you’re in trouble.
On the other hand, Democrats should not get over-enthusiastic. If Clinton is the nominee, Republicans could still turn this one around in November.
Comment by Yellow Dog Democrat Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 10:21 am
It’s a direct result of the GOP having two bad candidates in the primary. Once the dust settled the losing candidate and his supporters weren’t able to come together for the party. If Lauzen had won the primary the same thing would have most likely occurred with the Oberweis supporters. Combine that factor with a democratic trend and Obama-rama and you have a Foster victory.
Comment by ice phisher Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 10:22 am
Next question of the day.
Do you think the National GOP will try to force Obie out of the race in November? If they do try, will Obie comply or carry on like a spoiled brat?
Comment by Dirty Bath Water Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 10:24 am
He’s not likeable because he’s so arrogant. It’s his way or no way. I also think that the Obama endorsement had a much larger impact on the race than expected. One final thought…he had no competition in the primary…he thought he had won…actually Lauzen lost. Big difference.
Comment by downhereforyears Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 10:25 am
Lauzen was such a good candidate with a great ground game, why did Oberweis dispatch him so handily in the GOP regular and special primaries?
Didn’t Oberweris win the primary out west, and lost by reasonable margins in Kane, and closer in?
I think (and am not sure) that a lot of people sat it out also. Rather kills any inflence Hastert might have had, when he can’t even keep his district…
Comment by Pat Collins Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 10:30 am
Don’t you just love it.
He’s not even elected and he gives the dem/libs head aches and if they’re not careful, their going to burst their arteries.
Facts-
1.Special election turnout 98,998.
2.Turnout Presidential year 2004 and likely to be even greater in 2008 - 279,618.
3. The Lauzen supporters stayed home. They won’t in November when they have a chance to vote for President.
4. Oberweis may be the only politician who got into politics not to make money off of government connection, legally or as in Illinois illegally.
5. Since Oberweis started running, his high profile has resulted in his ice cream being going from a ma and pa operation with a few stores to probably a hundred stores open or to be opened.
6. Since he started running for office, his high profile has resulted in his money management business going from hundreds of millions to several billions. And in money management you take your fees off the top.
As the dem/libs pull their hair, Oberweis smiles all the way to the bank.
Comment by True Observer Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 10:31 am
If Lauzen had won the primary the same thing would have most likely occurred with the Oberweis supporter
I disagree. I think Lauzen’s people were committed voters, while Ober’s were those who see the commericals, and see who gets endorsed. That is, they vote R no matter what.
So, while Lauzen’s people would NOT have voted for O, I think that the bulk of those who supported O would have supported Lauzen.
I also think Lauzen on the ballot would have meant greater turnout, and a better result in Aurora.
Comment by Pat Collins Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 10:34 am
True Observer,
Dems/libs pulling their hair?
You could not be more off.
The guy has lost every election that he ran.
Why in the world would Dems/Libs get upset over that?
Dems LIKE Obie. He loses to Dems. Dems think that is GOOD.
And personally, I hope he does make a fortune off his dairy. Say what you want about his poltics, but the guy can produce high quality heavy cream.
I will take his milk over any other producer (and as soon as he loses in November, I will start buying his stuff again). I am glad the dairy has taken off. It shows that Americans can recognize a quality food product.
Comment by Skeeter Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 10:38 am
Wow, people dont’ realize that him running has hurt his business not helped it, Ask him why he doesnt’ have a store in Lincoln Park anymore
there is an organized effort to boycott business
I’m sorry, Oberweis, is pretty much indefensible
Comment by I'm Just Saying Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 10:44 am
Oberweis lost for a couple of reasons. One, the Republicans are in trouble nationwide. The House campaign committee is badly lagging in fundraising to the Democrats, George W. Bush’s polling numbers are dragging the party down, and the head of the 2008 ticket is getting creamed in fundraising by the two Democrats left in the race. That one of those Democrats is from Illinois and endorsed Foster didn’t hurt either, but the national trend this year does not favor the Republicans.
That said, the second reason for Oberweis’s loss was that he is Jim Oberweis. The more people get to know Jim Oberweis, the less they like him. And the people have gotten to know Jim Oberweis very well over the past six years. His one strength was as a self-funder, yet even there the national party had to spend a huge chunk of their cash on hand to lose a dependably Republican seat by six points. Both the particular flaws of Oberweis and the problems of the national party contributed to Saturday’s result.
Comment by Boone Logan Square Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 10:46 am
Foster won because he’s not bat poo insane, unlike Helicopter Jim.
Helicopter Jim’s scorched earth campaigns wear on people.
Comment by jerry 101 Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 10:46 am
“He loses to Dems.”
He has lost one general election.
The others were primary elections which he lost because the Republican Establishment (the combine) did not want to give him a platform to reform Illinois government. In other words, to take the crookedness out of it.
Why do you think they by-passed him to bring in Keyes?
Comment by True Observer Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 10:50 am
The blame lies solidly with the Lauzen crowd. They prayed Obie would lose. In Kendall where Foster squeeked by with just a few more votes, that was the “New GOP” at work. Sort of a we hate everyone except our chosen few. Same thing that is killing this party all over the state. It is one thing to be pro-life or pro-choice or pro-whatever, but these guys have raised hatred in the opposition to an art form. Their venom alienates those who might otherwise have joined their cause. They don’t have a majority, just enough people to screw things up.
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 10:56 am
“They don’t have a majority, just enough people to screw things up.”
This is the same as the Huckabee crowd. They didn’t care that they screwed it up for Romney and got McCain. They just wanted to make their point.
Comment by True Observer Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 11:00 am
Denny and his brain trust screwed the pooch one last time. This loss his their fault. Good thing Denny is helping Blago with the capital bill so the fellas can be taken care of as lobbyists.
Comment by Ollie Oxenfree Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 11:02 am
Lauzen was such a good candidate with a great ground game, why did Oberweis dispatch him so handily in the GOP regular and special primaries?
Didn’t Oberweris win the primary out west, and lost by reasonable margins in Kane, and closer in?
Incorrect. Oberweis beat Lauzen on February 5 in every venue, including Kane, DuPage and Kendall counties, except for the city of Aurora (Lauzen’s home town). It is true his margins were greater out west, where Oberweis probably had greater name recognition.
Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 11:09 am
The GOP fields terrible candidates for Congressional seats. Look at the GOP Jerry Weller seat: the primary winner drops out, after the primary, because he’s suddenly “too busy” to run! The fault lies also with the GOP primary voters, who don’t think about electibility, only rigid ideology. The really good Republicans and Democrats don’t want to go to Washington (for many good reasons), so we get second-tier people in both parties.
Comment by Legal Eagle Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 11:33 am
Foster’s first spot touted his endorsement by “19 Nobel Prize-winning scientists”.
The key to victory.
Comment by cool hand Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 11:34 am
Let’s give the credit where the credit is due here, he ran against a candidate that had more to offer and a superior campaign. Foster will never be the most charismatic guy in the room, but he was able to convince people that he was smart and could be counted on to make good decisions, and he overcame whatever historical reluctance the district had to Democrats.
I want to give special recognition to his campaign manager Tom Bowen (a personal friend of mine), who I thought ran a textbook campaign from start to finish. This was a strong R district, and since a special election is generally a base vote election they needed to overcome the fact that the Republicans have a bigger base here. They laid the groundwork for the kind of race they’d need to win months ago, with the dedication to the tedious things like call time, fundraising, racking up early endorsements and building the kind of coalition with labor and other elected officials that helped support the volunteer infrastructure that put so many bodies on the street on election day. Not to mention that you have to be very well organized to handle and influx of hundreds of volunteers at the last minute. Anyone who went to Iowa in the final weeks of that campaign, or went to Ohio last week can tell you that even the best field pros can be unprepared for an abundance of resources.
They had a great team of advisors (they used the same media, mail and pollster as the Patrick Murphy campaign in 06) and a lot of exteral factors broke their way. They had a tv endorsement from the most popular Democrat in the state (nation), they ran against the locally grown Alan Keyes (who even hired all of Keyes top notch campaign staff - awesome), and they had enthusiastic support from a lot of committed volunteers, but they were smart enough to put it all together in a way that put them over the top.
Congratulations Tom, we’re proud of you. You went from the guy who put together news clips for Gibbs in Barack’s 04 Senate race, to the campaign manager who got national attention for winning a seat owned by the other party’s Speaker of the House. Head out to DC and take your victory lap, you’ve earned it.
P.S. - When I say “proud” I don’t mean pick-up-the-bar-tab proud, more of an attaboy. Just so we’re clear.
Comment by Tucker McElroy Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 11:42 am
===The others were primary elections which he lost because the Republican Establishment (the combine) did not want to give him a platform to reform Illinois government. In other words, to take the crookedness out of it.
===Why do you think they by-passed him to bring in Keyes?
Because Karl Rove hated him for his anti-immigrant crusade.
Comment by ArchPundit Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 11:57 am
It’s pretty much all been said, but the District is a 55-45 Republican District in the 2004 Presidential that almost flipped the percentages for this race. It’s the independents who are
1) mad at Republicans in general
2) hate the war in Iraq
3) are nervous about an economy that is in trouble especially in an area with a lot of new homes and ARMs
4) don’t like Oberweis to begin with
5) Foster wasn’t a terribly ideological candidate
6) Foster was backed by the most popular state officeholder of any sort who appeals to independents.
The District is center-right, not hard right as many Republicans seem to have not gotten through their head. The independents breaking one way can give a Democrat a victory–and they did. Assuming that Obama is the nominee in the fall and Oberweis sticks it out, Foster is likely to win again. If one of those two conditions change, it gets a lot more questionable.
Comment by ArchPundit Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 12:02 pm
I agree with Mr. McElroy to give credit where it’s due. The Foster campaign did an outstanding job, and they won. Oberweis is not the perfect candidate (who is?), but instead of slamming him and wishing he would be replaced with a “better” candidate, let’s recognize that his campaign is the primary problem, and that his campaign manager is the person that needs to be replaced not the candidate himself.
Comment by elginite Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 12:08 pm
Kane and Kendall Counties are becoming ex-urban areas, and more independent. New residents who aren’t familiar with the local political scene, but went to the polls for the Presidential primary, were largely influenced by name ID and the Trib endorsement – which is why Oberweis won the primary. He lost the special election because it was a low-turnout election favoring grass-roots organizations and highly motivated voters, of which Oberweis had neither.
The odds are against Oberweis for redemption this fall. Consider the 2004 special elections in the Kentucky 6th and South Dakota (at-large seat). In both races, the Democrats picked up a GOP seat, and then saw their incumbent increase their margin in the November rematch, despite the fact that President Bush carried those districts handily.
The NRCC has a tough call to make. Their best shot at taking the seat back is to get Oberweis to step aside and put a grass-roots favorite (ie, Lauzen) on the ballot. But that means they would have to pump a lot more money into the district than they had planned due to Oberweis’s ability to self-finance his run.
Comment by grand old partisan Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 12:25 pm
“Because Karl Rove hated him for his anti-immigrant crusade.”
Please.
After being re-elected in 2004, do you think Rove or Bush really cared about the illegal aliens?
Of course, not.
Their only concern was to leave some kind of legacy.
They tried social security and it didn’t work.
So they came up with amnesty.
They didn’t care that they were going to screw up american civilization. Yes there is such a thing that most of the world is envious of.
All they cared was that the history books would show him opening up the Mexican border.
Even with the border closed, there are barrios in almost every city in the U.S.
Making money off of government-
George Bush made his money the Chicago way by pushing a bond refrendum for the Texas Rangers stadium which after it passed he was able to parlay his $800,000 investment into $15,000,000.
Rove has been making money off of politicians by being paid for his campaign services by them from the political contributions they receive for what the donors hope will be future favors.
Rove is no innocent. He personally appeared 4 years ago at the Republican State Convention to back Kjellander for Republican National Committeeman when he was under threat of not being reappointed.
With the known baggage Kjellander carried, Rove got him appointed National Treasurer of the Republican Party.
The Rezko trial gives just a glimpse of the combine. Strange how Republican names keep popping up in what is ostesibly malfeasance by Democrats.
Comment by True Observer Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 12:33 pm
I can add little insight to this. I think previous posters have hit every relevant nail, from Obie’s not likeable and Foster was to general distrust of the GOP.
But I want to make two more points:
1. This district is no longer hard right. As Arch pointed out, it’s center-right. And unless the GOP hardliners get that through their thick heads soon, this will be the first of many embarrassing losses.
2. Lauzen carries a lot of blame here. The crybaby response by his minions proves he wasn’t the right guy for the job, either. He’s just like the far right Ann Coulters of the world who would rather pout than back the winning candidate. That approach is a losing approach, and it does not lay a solid foundation for the next step, which is good government for all the people.
3. Yes, Lauzen is a better campaigner, but he doesn’t win this, either. He loses, and then he blames the loss on Foster’s bank account. For many similar reaons and many different reasons, Lauzen is just as unlikeable. His renegade style in the Senate has really benefitted no one except him and his fan club in 15 years. Few people in his district have anything to show from his time in the Senate. The state GOP knows this.
4. The guy who could have won this is Kevin Burns, who stepped down because he probably underestimated how much Oberweis was willing to spend. The state GOP should get Oberweis to step aside and then go back to Burns and promise to back him. Burns is a moderate whose positions best represent the majority of the district’s voters.
Comment by Lionel Hutz Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 12:40 pm
One more point. I can’t count. I start with two points and add two more.
So it’s four points.
Or maybe now it’s five.
Comment by Lionel Hutz Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 12:41 pm
Their best shot at taking the seat back is to get Oberweis to step aside and put a grass-roots favorite (ie, Lauzen) on the ballot.
Their best shot is to 1.) pull their broken party back together again, 2.) run a consensus candidate who doesn’t have party factions that hate him/her (which pretty much eliminates the two who ran this time), and 3.) let Oberweis *write* the fat check instead of actually running. I’m not sure that #1 can be accomplished, that #2 can be convinced to run among the few good candidates who might be available, or #3 can put his ego aside.
Oh, and #4 if Hillary is atop the ticket, it’s probably worth a few % points to the R candidate in the 14th, but not much more.
Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 12:45 pm
GOP~ I repectfully disagree with you. After Lauzen pulled the whole temper tantrum thing I don’t know anybody who would support him. He embarrassed himself and his supporters and it wasn’t the first time.
Comment by Leigh Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 12:47 pm
===“Because Karl Rove hated him for his anti-immigrant crusade.”
==Please.
===After being re-elected in 2004, do you think Rove or Bush really cared about the illegal aliens?
===Of course, not.
What does being reelected in 2004 have to do with your claim? Keyes replaced Ryan on the ticket in August of 2004.
Comment by ArchPundit Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 12:54 pm
“What does being reelected in 2004 have to do with your claim? Keyes replaced Ryan on the ticket in August of 2004.”
If Bush and Rove thought they had a chance to carry Illinois is 2004, that would be an above the fold story.
Rove was nowhere around the hotel room when the ILGOP was auditioning for Ryan replacements.
Comment by True Observer Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 1:05 pm
I’m not from the 14th but it seems like his views do not represent the district.
Comment by ahoy! Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 1:24 pm
Oberweis didn’t have to run a perfect campaign to win, he just needed to avoid mistakes. Unfortunately, his team made a ton of them. Making up people in their mail, taking quotes out of context all led to a Trib editorial the day before the election essentially calling him a fraud and liar. That coupled with the mocking of Foster sealed his fate.
Each campaign he has run been worse than the one before. Maybe it’s his fault, his media team certainly has to take a fair share of the blame.
And then there are Republicans. Why would you expect a different result on his fourth attempt?
Comment by Easy Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 1:31 pm
I kinda agree with Ron B. I just don’t think he is electable, much like Walter Mondale was not electable on his own. You can’t connect with him. Foster wasn’t much better but apparently good enough. If the Republicans dump Oberweis in favor of a candidate with personality that can speak to the issues, Foster might have a problem in November.
Comment by Irish Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 1:46 pm
Oberweis can’t be “dumped.” He is the certified nominee. It’s possible he could be persuaded to withdraw, and a replacement could be appointed, but what could you offer him? It’s his money, and this is probably his last shot (whether he knows it or not).
Comment by wordslinger Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 1:50 pm
Lionel, you sound like Oberweis and Pascoe adding up fake taxes to smear an opponent with fibs.
(Since when are fines for breaking the law considered “taxes”?)
Comment by Rob_N Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 2:15 pm
OneMan, Both sides used outside help.
What’s your point?
Comment by Rob_N Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 2:17 pm
It is shocking the ChopperJim could lose this election…Especially after Speaker Denny got in bed with Blaggo to boost the capital plan…I think Chairman Andy must have thrown this election as part of his master plan. Schock and Capt Kirk should be concerned if Chairman Andy offers his “support” for thier campaigns. I would run the other way fast.
Comment by Reddbyrd Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 2:19 pm
Why did Oberweis lose?
C’MON! Would YOU vote for him?
Silly question!
Comment by VanillaMan Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 2:22 pm
Foster won just as much as Oberweis lost. Since I am a Democrat, I would hope Oberweis would hang in there so he can really get routed in the general election. It will still be tough for anyone now to defeat Foster unless he screws up between now and then. he doesn’t seem the type. The Republicans, as this time, cannot do better than Oberweis.
Comment by Reading on Walden Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 2:42 pm
Obie lost because, it being a Saturday special election solely for that one race, Dems had a high motivation to go to the polls: to get some representation in the district for the first time in recent memory. I think only 2 types of R’s would bother: those who REALLY didn’t want a Dem rep, and those who came out just to vote for Obie? How many of the latter do you think there really are? Certainly not as many as came out solely to vote AGAINST him.
Only that guy could lose Hastert’s district to the Dems. Too bad Lauzen couldn’t run against Foster in November.
Comment by Snidely Whiplash Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 2:44 pm
VM,
Your usual eloquence and erudite banter are missing here. Sure, we chuckle as we read your sound bite, but apparently the Milk Dud convinced some 46,000 to do exactly that, against your better judgment.
Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 2:52 pm
uch like Walter Mondale was not electable on his own.
He managed to get elected a lot in MN on his own.
Too bad Lauzen couldn’t run against Foster in November.
He can. It’s a very low probability event, but I think he can run as a R. Not as anything else, but I think as an R it’s ok.
Comment by Pat Collins Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 3:01 pm
Aha —- It was the Saturday vote that did the GOPs in. Too many soccer games, Little League sign-ups, etc.? Did not see them on TV at the Class 1A and 2A bball championships…Flower and Garden Show. What exactly was more important than sending ChopperJim to DC to replace Speaker Denny?
Comment by Reddbyrd Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 3:05 pm
Pat Collins,
If Milk Dud wants to be the 14th candidate in November, no one can stop him (he won the regular primary), and there is only room for one R on the ballot for that race. If that is the case, Lauzen could enter the race as an independent, assuming he could get the requisite signatures. If Milk Dud vacates his candidacy, it would be up to the party to slate a candidate. I assume it would be a person who has not burnt too many bridges already, but what do I know. All I can say is, this is kinda fun to watch from afar.
Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 3:09 pm
First…it’s time for a major leadership change in the Ill. grand old party. Andy McKenna…it’s time for you to go. No success. Second…The GOP has done a lousy job of recruiting over the last 10 years & they need quickly to convince, or by those who can, Oby-won to leave the race now & search for a replacement for Nov. What makes him think he can win against the “incumbent” who’ll do nothing crazy it’s presumed between now & election day given the district wide win by Foster & the absolute focus of resource into this district. Third…Oby is an arrogant, self-centered, self-serving individual who’s bombastic style has about run it’s course. People really just don’t like him. After two defeats for Senate, one for governor, this for the House & the party posts he couldn’t win…you’d think a bell would ring somewhere. Oby..go home PLEASE !!! What an embarrassment to the GOP in a largely Rep. district.
Comment by annon in the stykes Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 3:14 pm
It was clearly Kjellander, McKenna, and the Combine’s support for Foster that carried it. Without that Combine, Obie would have been a shoo-in. God, everything is so much simpler when I think like the rest of you guys.
Comment by steve schnorf Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 3:58 pm
There’s no way for individual citizens or even journalists to review, veryify, or even spot check actual election results (without very expensive legal proceedings), so the vote tallys we are told are effectively no better than randomly generated by a magic black box. Is such a lack of Democracy consistent with our Constitution?
Republicans really aren’t interested in winning in 2008 because giving total control to Democrats helps encourage overreaching and set the stage for a backlash comeback in 2010 when redistricting lines are drawn. Not to mention having more Democrats in DC with Democrats likely winning everything would help Illinois. Oberwies got suckered into running, so he couldn’t win in 2010. Will he bite on entering the 11th District Congressional race so late?
Enjoying the dog and pony show yet?
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 4:02 pm
Oberweis lost this race for the same reason Republicans have a chance in Illinois in off-year elections - not as many people voted.
These were probably pretty close to typical numbers for a primary - 100,000 or so votes. Oberweis is an awful candidate with deep pockets, and Foster did everything he needed to.
However, even with the unlikeable Milkman on the ballot, the Republicans’ chances of holding on to this seat are still fair to good. three times as many people will show up to vote in the Presidential Elections, and that will likely be enough to overwhelm any “growth” in Democrats. Besides, all that extra help will be working their other races in November.
I’m not saying it’s Oberweis’ to lose, but I’d say his chances are at least 50/50 if not better just because of the district. 55% Bush in 2004 is an awfully important number that might not matter when a tenth of the electorate turns out, but it will when a third to half show up.
Comment by Frustrated Republican Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 4:06 pm
Oberweis was a fountain of negativity. There was no “feel good” factor with him at all. Foster was more of an unknown, and Oberweis is known as “the dairy magnate who loses election after election.” He did beat Lauzen but only after both men’s reputations took some serious damage.
Foster rode the change bandwagon to a 53% margin.
I wonder if he’ll wear the lab coat in the House chambers?
Comment by Jake from Elwood Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 4:09 pm
S Schnorf-
Of course Kjellander and McKenna tried to help Oberweis. But let’s just say the “combine”, and moneyed interests, are probably happy that Laesch and Lauzen were eliminated in the primary round. You saw all the usual suspects lining up behind Oberweis and Foster at an early time. These are people who engage in partisan politics against each other by day and cut deals with each other at night. They may not always be the best of friends, especially in public, but the system does work for them.
Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 4:37 pm
The best headline we didn’t see….”Foster Spanks Dairy Heir”
Comment by Crusher Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 4:44 pm
Jim Oberweis lost for one simple reason - he is a bad candidate no matter what party!!
Comment by storman norman Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 4:45 pm
The man is a boob. Someone should try to figure out a way to convince him to change parties. It’s only fair. We’ve had him the last 4 election cycles.
Comment by HoosierDaddy Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 5:46 pm
Has anyone here stopped to think that some of the qualities that make Oberweis (and others…think Sam Zell) successful businessmen do not necessarily carry over into the world of politics, where compromise comes into play and profitability is neither required or expected?
This may be one of his biggest problems. His skills as a businessman do not necessarily coincide with the skills needed to compete in the governmental arena.
Bill Foster was a terrible candidate. Not a great human being either. Personally, I would not let the guy in my house. But he won.
Jim Oberweis went broke once in his life but made it all back and then some.
My point is, Oberweis aside, people that are successful in business are not necessarily suited to public service for many reasons.
Aside to the posters regarding “vanity campaigns”: Oberweis is not and will not be the first vanity campaignereither. Corinne Wood’s ‘02 gubernatorial campaign comes to mind.
Comment by Man Who Grew Up Drinking Kraml Milk Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 6:10 pm
Because he is an arrogant totally negative campaigner, and a perennial loser. Who wants someone representing them who stumbles over cow pies when conducting campaigns?
Comment by NoMilkForMe Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 7:52 pm
And on Saturday we voted!
I am surprised with all of the keen observers here no one has mentioned the growth of the Latino vote in the district. There are 168,000 of us. There are 40,000 naturalized citizens. And we just do not like blowhards who scapegoat us for cheap political advantage. Heavily Latino Aurora gave Foster a 3,200 vote advantage, out of his victory margin of 5,000 votes.
Open your eyes to the changing face of Chicago’s suburbs folks!
Comment by Yesterday we marched... Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 8:22 pm
Hey, David Greising of the Tribune. Great columnist!
Your boy Eliot Spitzer, who you compared then-Attorney General Jim Ryan unfavorably to in print, when he was running for Governor against the biggest piece of garbage God ever created, Milorad Blagojevich, is now Customer No. 9.
Chuck Goudie said there is a “Chicago Connection” to Customer No. 10. Is that you?
Where’s your Moses now?
Comment by Edward G. Robinson Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 8:24 pm
Yesterday,
Hence the Democrats’ position in favor of amnesty. They don’t think in favor of what’s right for the country; they think in favor of increased Democratic voting power.
Comment by Snidely Whiplash Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 9:46 pm
True Observer, Larry is right about Karl Rove. That had nothing to do with this mythical Combine Club. It was the White House. Period.
Comment by Rich Miller Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 10:08 pm
I can’t help but feel that Hastert practically gave this seat away to the Dems. He hem-hawed around endlessly about when he was going to leave office and forced a special election, thereby short-circuiting the process of finding a suitable GOP replacement.
If he had really cared about keeping his seat in Republican hands (more than he did about beating the deadline for being able to lobby the next Congress!) he could have announced early in ‘07 that he was not running again, given the GOP time to find a suitable heir apparent (assuming they could have), and allowed the election cycle to play out.
Comment by Bookworm Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 10:20 pm
Yesterday we Marched-
I remember the white demagogue politicians in the south suburbs who had a white flight constituency and used all the code words, etc. to assure their people they would stand tall for their “neighborhoods”, meaning they would favor policies that would slow the migration of blacks to the area. Didn’t work too well, eventually. Neither will western suburban politicians who try a similar bag of tricks vs. Latinos.
Long term, IL will have an increasingly heavy Latino population, and will have non-Latinos also migrating to Chicagoland and the suburbs because we have one thing the western and southern US don’t have…water. For those who think the 14th district looks a lot different these days…you ain’t seen nothing yet.
Comment by Six Degrees of Separation Monday, Mar 10, 08 @ 10:38 pm