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* The Tribune spent a decade writing stories about annual population estimates, and the paper’s editorial board published dozens of “exodus” screeds in response. Let’s be clear here. There’s zero doubt that people are leaving Illinois for other states (and the same thing is happening elsewhere, too), but the woman featured in this Tribune story says at the very end that she’s planning to come back to Chicago. And there’s nothing in the story about how the intense hype of the past decade concluded with only a tiny net population decline…
Dayna Lynn Nuckolls spent most of her life in Chicago and the south suburbs but was already planning to leave when COVID-19 struck.
She was fed up with the winters and conflicts in Chicago Public Schools, and when the pandemic boosted her business — she’s an astrologer and spiritualist — she made the leap, taking her young child with her to New Orleans.
“I think the energy of migration has been very high,” said Nuckolls, 38. “It’s been a much more supportive environment to make big moves like that. The timing just worked out for me.”
When Nuckolls left the Chicago area in July 2020, she was on the cusp of a trend: More than 100,000 people in Chicagoland followed suit over the next year, migrating to other domestic destinations during the COVID-19 pandemic.
In all, accounting for other population changes due to birth, death and international migration, metro Chicago lost more than 91,000 people between July 2020 and July 2021, aligning with other large metro areas that saw people flee cities as the pandemic continued to upend life in 2021, according to new population estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau.
…Adding… Oops. Forgot to include this. From the US Census Bureau…
Coverage estimates from the [Post-Enumeration Survey] varied by race and Hispanic origin. DA coverage estimates for these characteristics are not yet available. As further explained in the Using Demographic Benchmarks to Help Evaluate 2020 Census Results blog, DA will first need to reconcile differences in how vital records categorize race with census results not yet released.
The PES data show that:
• The Black or African American alone or in combination population had a statistically significant undercount of 3.30%. This is not statistically different from the 2.06% undercount in 2010.
• The Hispanic or Latino population had a statistically significant undercount rate of 4.99%. This is statistically different from a 1.54% undercount in 2010.
• American Indian or Alaska Native alone or in combination populations living on reservations show a statistically significant undercount rate of 5.64%. This was not statistically different from a 4.88% undercount in 2010. The American Indian or Alaska Native population alone or in combination living in American Indian areas, but not living on reservations, was not statistically different from zero in 2020 or 2010.
• The non-Hispanic White alone population had a statistically significant overcount rate of 1.64%. This is statistically different from an overcount of 0.83% in 2010.
• The Asian alone or in combination population had an overcount rate of 2.62%. This is statistically different from 0.00% in 2010.
• The Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander alone or in combination population had an estimated overcount rate of 1.28%. This rate is not different from an estimated 1.02% overcount rate in 2010. Both are not statistically different from zero.
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 10:40 am
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They alternate between that and calling for “pension reform” despite the fact that we already had it (Tier 2).
Comment by Big Dipper Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 10:53 am
Apparently the Tribune Editorial Board has hired Chicken Little …
Comment by Anyone Remember Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 10:54 am
91,000 or 100,000 are big numbers. But how many left Chicago for other parts of Illinois?
And follow up is needed in a year or two to see if the move stuck. People think the grass is greener and sometimes realize its not.
And in a bit of happenstance - I just returned from NOLA and can tell you I see why people like to live there. And locals don’t go to the French Quarter. But housing prices were so out of line, I’m not sure who’s really affording that city. And one major hurricane might leave you longing for a few snowflakes all winter up north.
Comment by Cool Papa Bell Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 10:56 am
It’s important to enhance and make the idea far worse than what actually exists, the idea of the Trib Edit Board to continually “run down” Illinois and Chicago is what that paper feels, not necessarily a wholly honest assessment of what is happening.
One only needs to revisit - OneMan -‘s own mockingly brilliant observation of the Edit Board to realize… folks willing to grift or make money by slamming where they actually live and make money is a game to extract dollars from the ill-informed of facts that *want* a negative bias about Illinois and Chicago to be true… so that Edit Board takes actual happenings and they feel a real need to make the appearance worse… so the in-law uncle continues to subscribe
Like saying Illinois is so bad it can’t expect large events to choose to be here, except they are here, coming here, and businesses and tourists want to be here too… but when was the last time that Edit Board celebrated those truths, real simple truths?
It would help if the Edit Board actually read their paper and the great reporters who write those reports, but being blissfully ignorant to that allows the “alternative realities” to be opinions the silly think are facts.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 10:58 am
== I just returned from NOLA and can tell you I see why people like to live there.==
It’s far less pleasant in the summer.
Comment by Big Dipper Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 11:02 am
“she’s an astrologer and spiritualist”
Just finished reading Arthur Conan Doyle’s ‘History of Spiritualism.’ Even today, many people go for that stuff.
That type of business might be more successful in New Orleans, especially with tourists looking for an unusual experience.
But hey, this is America and people are coming and going all the time. In the big picture, 100,000 people sounds like a lot but represents less than one percent of Illinois’ population.
Comment by Streator Curmudgeon Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 11:14 am
Overall I agree, the Tribune has overplayed this but I guess everyone needs a hobby?
It’s not that Illinois is losing that’s the issue, it’s the reality that other states are gaining population and US House seats. The name of the game is federal dollars–the fewer people there for your state, the less you get.
Comment by Swampy Corn Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 11:16 am
Tucked away in the article is the mention that Chicago’s estimated population loss is “aligning with other large metro areas that saw people flee cities as the pandemic continued to upend life in 2021.”
In other words, if it’s happening everywhere, why would we then blame state or local government, crime, “business climate,” etc.?
Comment by Benjamin Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 11:16 am
Why do people still believe these estimates after the census showed they were mostly wrong? Gosh, journalists filling in the blanks on their preferred narratives never learn.
Comment by Chicago Blue Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 11:34 am
If astrologers are seeing spikes in business maybe the economy did overhear just a bit too much
Comment by Anonymous Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 11:46 am
== planning to come back to Chicago ==
No matter where you go, there you are.
== it’s the reality that other states are gaining population and US House seats ==
While true, this is also incomplete.
There are also states gaining population AND losing house seats. Like Ohio.
This is an artifact of a fixed number of seats, more than the population of individual states.
Comment by TheInvisibleMan Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 11:47 am
Does anyone know the Editorial Board’s history with respect to in-migration? I suspect they’re OK with “Americans” moving to Illinois but silent or negative about other nationalities.
Comment by Sir Reel Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 11:48 am
==This is an artifact of a fixed number of seats, more than the population of individual states.==
Good point, I think that’s important as well.
==In other words, if it’s happening everywhere, why would we then blame state or local government, crime, “business climate,” etc.?==
I think because Illinois’ bad marketing (by a host of entities) + better marketing by other states = perception, right or wrong.
Comment by Swampy Corn Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 11:51 am
===The name of the game is federal dollars–the fewer people there for your state, the less you get.===
Illinois, now the 6th largest state in America, has Ohio chasing by ~700,000+ and Georgia by ~1.6 million+
Let’s not pretend that Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa, Missouri, et al are threatening Illinois’ midwest dominance
Federal dollars are magically linked a fair amount of the time to “battleground” states, so there’s that too.
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 11:54 am
=== In other words, if it’s happening everywhere, why would we then blame state or local government, crime, “business climate,” etc.?===
The grift is about making money in the metro complaining that said metro is far worse than “everywhere” else.
Once you reconcile it’s about making money off the silly idea of “down talking” your current location, the rest makes sense to that grift / business model
Comment by Oswego Willy Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 11:57 am
Never or rarely has the bag been emptier that the professional Illinois doomsayers are holding. Illinois has improved and will further improve if we remain in the current political situation. The bill backlog is reduced. Debt is being paid, credit improving. Schools and social services funded. Massive infrastructure investment, green energy, etc.
We don’t need right wing ideas that the misery spelunkers would tank a state over, the stripping workers rights to compete with Tennessee and Alabama. Even Rahm knows that.
Comment by Grandson of Man Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 12:09 pm
iirc, by all measurables, downstate is shrinking faster: and especially the farther south you go.
Comment by Lurker Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 2:00 pm
60 years old. Just purchases 3 acres near Nashville in October.
The reason we are leaving and closing down the 50-year-old family business. My wife lived there before and wanted to retire there. Ilinois was good business-wise for us, but financially TN is better for retirement for us.
Comment by Zebra Ace Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 2:29 pm
The Tribune’s constant drumbeat never gets old for them. I guess it’s how they justify the collapse of their circulation numbers.
Comment by Annon Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 3:30 pm
As Rich says, there’s no doubt that people are leaving the state.
But I’m genuinely unsure why I’m supposed to trust 1-year estimates showing massive population loss *now* after they for years massively overstated the same phenomenon in the 2010s.
Comment by Nick Monday, Mar 28, 22 @ 4:21 pm
Recently in NOLA as well. It was very nice but I must have had 10 people say “it’s nice but don’t be here in August”
Comment by Galway Bay Tuesday, Mar 29, 22 @ 5:11 am