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* My weekly syndicated newspaper column…
I’ve mentioned before that House Speaker Chris Welch has said since the day he was elected to his chamber’s top job last year that he is fully committed to protecting all of his incumbents, whether in the primary or in the general election. That wasn’t always the case with his predecessor, Michael Madigan.
None of Welch’s candidates have yet faced a voter since he made that pledge in January 2021, but Welch has so far tried to clear the paths for some members facing primary challengers (with varying degrees of success), and he has put together nominating petition drives for incumbents who didn’t do enough (or any) work for themselves.
But I’ve been hearing two very different things lately: One, that Welch will make sure members win their primaries and generals no matter what effort they put into their own campaigns, and two, Welch will not help those who don’t or won’t help themselves.
Which is it? I checked in with the House speaker to find out.
Welch pointed to a March 19 political caucus meeting when he said he told his members: “We need to get back to the basics and focus on how to win elections. That’s door knocking and direct communication.”
Welch said he also told his caucus, “If you don’t hit it hard back home after the session is over, then I’m not sure that there’s any amount of money or paid communication that can overcome what we’re about to face.”
The House speaker was, of course, referring to the enormous political headwinds facing Democrats this year.
He continued: “And then I said to them, ‘And so far, I’m not impressed with quite a few of you and what you’ve shown us.’ And then I said to them, ‘Do not be surprised if we don’t continue to invest in you if you’re not investing in yourself.’ Now, that message was received very well from our caucus.”
Up to that point in the interview, I hadn’t mentioned any names. But when Welch claimed his “get to work” message had been received, I asked him if he was sure about that. I’d been meeting with people and making a lot of calls, and some folks have been complaining that Rep. Sonya Harper, D-Chicago, is still not on the program.
Harper just barely survived a strong challenge to her petitions, mainly because she relied on others to pass petitions for her, and Welch had to come in at the end. And then some legal heroics by her attorney Mike Kasper kept her from being tossed off the ballot.
Harper faces Chicago Police Officer Carolynn Crump in the primary. Crump is expected to receive top billing from the Chicago Fraternal Order of Police and will likely attack Harper, who chairs the joint House/Senate Black Caucus, over the SAFE-T Act criminal justice reform law. If Black Caucus Chair Harper should lose a Democratic primary in a Black district to a Black police officer and criminal justice reform is an issue used against her … well, all heck might break loose.
Welch wouldn’t address Harper’s specific situation because, he said, “I’m treating Rep. Harper like I’m treating every other incumbent. All of them are being treated equally.”
Welch then reiterated that he and his team are committed to protecting incumbents. “But it’s not a blank check,” he warned.
“What we have asked everyone to do is to be committed to themselves, to be committed to their districts and to show us that they’re working.”
“We’re keeping track, we’re going to be paying attention throughout the course of these primary campaigns. We’re going to invest in campaigns and candidates that are investing in themselves. We’re not going to just have a spigot that keeps on running, especially for persons that haven’t invested in themselves. And that applies to any of our incumbents.”
Welch said he and his caucus have a “mantra” that he’s used since he was elected House speaker: “Winners do the work.”
He also claimed he’s been hearing his members use the phrase more and more. “They’re starting to believe in that. Winners do the work. This is a simple formula. Winners do the work. If you work, you win. And we’re going to invest in those who are working.”
We’ll see.
posted by Rich Miller
Monday, May 2, 22 @ 8:47 am
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Good message and good program.
Comment by Three Dimensional Checkers Monday, May 2, 22 @ 9:05 am
coffee is for closers
Comment by TheInvisibleMan Monday, May 2, 22 @ 9:07 am
“enormous political headwinds facing Democrats this year”
The winds might impact a few congressional races, but I don’t really see if moving much else in Illinois.
Comment by Downstate Monday, May 2, 22 @ 9:26 am
What is wrong with a black police officer winning a black district?
The largest city in America just elected a black police officer as Mayor. Perhaps Illinois Democrats could see the writing and the wall and change course instead of doubling down and the headwinds would not be so enormous.
If one of the Chief proponents of the dubiously named SafeT act loses it will send a strong message to repeal this law that is certainly not increasing public safety
Comment by Lucky Pierre Monday, May 2, 22 @ 9:28 am
There is very little that is more effective than the candidate knocking on doors and talking to voters themselves. Especially if precinct and county organizations are no longer a mechanism that people are required to engage in so that they can secure or retain employment. I think it is a mistake to expect younger generations of politicos to go along with anything that resembles a scheme and it is even more of a mistake to try to wield any kind of clout in order to retaliate against those who won’t work for free or complain about their bosses.
Candidates, whether entrenched politicians or newcomers, need to expect to run their own race and not rely on others to do their heavy lifting, at least not all of it. If you can’t or won’t take time to convince individual voters to vote for you, even if you are running from a completely safe district, whether or not you are truly representing your district comes into question.
Comment by Candy Dogood Monday, May 2, 22 @ 9:29 am
== The winds might impact a few congressional races, but I don’t really see if moving much else in Illinois. ==
I don’t think Speaker Welch agrees with you, hence his push to do the work. There are a handful of suburban GA members who won lots of independent votes or benefited from an energized Dem base “Because Trump” during the last three cycles. Those conditions won’t be in place this fall.
Comment by Telly Monday, May 2, 22 @ 9:36 am
I suspect that we will see 5-10 House Democrats lose this year, either in the primary or the general, just due to these headwinds. It will be fascinating to see how the House Democrats run their shop in the first non-Madigan election cycle since the former Speaker’s retirement.
Comment by Hannibal Lecter Monday, May 2, 22 @ 9:46 am
“Those conditions won’t be in place this fall.”
Trump is trying to be relevant in politics, but not in places where the vote would matter to the overall balance of Illinois GA power. Agree that the conditions won’t be the same. The upcoming SCOTUS abortion ruling will interesting to watch, in terms of voting conditions.
Comment by Grandson of Man Monday, May 2, 22 @ 10:20 am
===I suspect that we will see 5-10 House Democrats lose this year, either in the primary or the general, just due to these headwinds===
If you can specify each of the house districts where you think that this will happen right now (you can even pick more than 10 to educated guess on) I will be thoroughly impressed.
Comment by Candy Dogood Monday, May 2, 22 @ 10:23 am
== What is wrong with a black police officer winning a black district? ==
It’s not just about race. It’s also about ideology and Dem voter attitudes concerning crime. The same “all heck might break loose” could apply if Martwick or LaPointe lose, too.
It certainly would add fuel to the notion that Democratic Party elites are out of touch with the feelings of rank-and-file voters.
But I’d bet against any Dem incumbent losing a primary to a challenge from their right because it almost never happens. Martwick and LaPointe will work hard. If they lose it will be because of crime. Not sure we’ll be able to say the same if Harper goes down.
Comment by Telly Monday, May 2, 22 @ 10:24 am
Harper’s district partially runs through the highly voter educated South Loop. In every cycle, South Loop residents turn out in high numbers. They are also engaged. FB must have half a dozen or more groups dedicated to their issues.
So far, I haven’t seen any evidence Rep Harper is anyplace to be found in these areas. She’d be well advised to start showing up. It wont take much but a good % out of those precincts might be the deciding factor.
Comment by low level Monday, May 2, 22 @ 10:50 am
Yeah, the FOP is backing a lot of candidates and is at war with the 3 aldermen in Martwick’s district, having threatened them with a primary opponent if they back Martwick. The problem with their candidates is that they’ll never get enough conservative support in pulling a Democratic ballot instead of a Republican one this June.
Comment by PublicServant Monday, May 2, 22 @ 11:16 am
=== If you can specify each of the house districts where you think that this will happen right now (you can even pick more than 10 to educated guess on) I will be thoroughly impressed. ===
1. Janet Yang Rohr
2. Suzanne Ness
3. Joyce Mason
4. Dave Vella
5. Anne Stava-Murray
6. Sue Scherer
7. Sonya Harper
8. Kathy Willis
9. Lindsay LaPointe
10. Sleeper Upset Special… Fran Hurley
Comment by Hannibal Lecter Monday, May 2, 22 @ 11:21 am
I used to think Madigan was the man to learn from I really like Speaker Welch’s philosophy.
Comment by Levois J Monday, May 2, 22 @ 11:46 am
==The problem with their candidates is that they’ll never get enough conservative support in pulling a Democratic ballot==
Large portions of Democratic primary voters are tired of the increase in crime. It won’t only be crossover voters potentially voting for challengers. Will it be enough? We will find out. I will confidently say enough are fed up to make these challenges close races, esp those that are well funded.
Comment by low level Monday, May 2, 22 @ 11:46 am
- Hannibal Lecter -
You had me until “Fran Hurley.”
Comment by Telly Monday, May 2, 22 @ 12:09 pm
@ Lucky =Perhaps Illinois Democrats could see the writing and the wall and change course=
Anecdote does not justify change. The SAFE-T Act was overwhelming supported by Illinoisans. Running from it because a police officer is running against it is bad politics.
Comment by H-W Monday, May 2, 22 @ 12:12 pm
=== You had me until “Fran Hurley.” ===
That is a total sleeper special. She should be fine, but its something to watch. Parts of the 19th Ward and Orland Park are definitely trending Republican nowadays. Couple that with the headwinds and…
Comment by Hannibal Lecter Monday, May 2, 22 @ 12:12 pm
== Parts of the 19th Ward and Orland Park are definitely trending Republican nowadays. ==
In 2020, Biden won the 19th Ward by 22 points. Hurley won it by 48 points. She ran against the same Republican candidate who is challenging her this year.
In the new map, Hurley shed about half of her Orland turf and picked up several black and integrated precincts in the 19th Ward that are now in Justin Slaughter’s district. If Hurley’s race is even close the fall, Jim Durkin will be Speaker of the House next year.
Comment by Sneezy Monday, May 2, 22 @ 1:48 pm
Looks like Speaker Welch is into communicating in a positive way with House Members.
Comment by Back to the Future Monday, May 2, 22 @ 2:23 pm