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Report: Southern Illinois is among the most vulnerable places in the country heading into the summer

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Illinois

* North American Electric Reliability Corp.…

Midcontinent ISO (MISO) faces a capacity shortfall in its North and Central areas, resulting in high risk of energy emergencies during peak summer conditions. Capacity shortfall projections reported in the 2021 LTRA and as far back as the 2018 LTRA have continued. Load serving entities in 4 of 11 zones entered the annual planning resource auction (PRA) in April 2022 without enough owned or contracted capacity to cover their requirements. Across MISO, peak demand projections have increased by 1.7% since last summer due in part to a return to normal demand patterns that have been altered in prior years by the pandemic. However, more impactful is the drop in capacity in the most recent PRA: MISO will have 3,200 MW (2.3%) less generation capacity than in the summer of 2021. System operators in MISO are more likely to need operating mitigations, such as load modifying resources or non-firm imports, to meet reserve requirements under normal peak summer conditions. More extreme temperatures, higher generation outages, or low wind conditions expose the MISO North and Central areas to higher risk of temporary operator-initiated load shedding to maintain system reliability.

Short version…

MISO A capacity shortfall in the North and Central areas poses high risk of energy emergencies during peak summer conditions. The shortfall is largely driven by a peak demand increase of 1.7% percent and 3,200 MW less generation capacity than summer 2021

* What does that mean for us? Washington Post…

Southern Illinois is among the most vulnerable places in the country heading into the summer, according to a newly published forecast by the North American Electric Reliability Corp., a regulatory authority that monitors risks to the grid.

The area, along with large parts of Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and other states linked to the regional grid, has been put on notice in the forecast that it is facing a “high risk of energy emergencies during peak summer conditions.” A major reason is that some of the coal plants that regulators assumed would keep running for another year or two are instead coming offline. Some plant operators are choosing to shut down rather than invest in upgrades for coal plants that do not fit with states’ and the federal government’s long-term goals for clean energy.

“We are seeing these retirements occur at a faster pace than expected,” said Jim Robb, chief executive of the regulatory authority. “The economics aren’t great, so coal plant operators are saying ‘uncle.’”

As demand across the Midwest is increasing, the amount of power available to the Midcontinent Independent System Operator grid that services a large swath of it has dropped, leading regulators to warn that outages could accompany extreme summer weather.

Retiring coal plants are just one of many challenges putting unprecedented stress on the nation’s electricity network.

“It’s a soup of things,” Robb said. “The grid is transforming. We are putting on a lot of new resources and learning how they behave.” That is compounded, Robb said, by prolonged stretches of extreme weather, the inability of utilities to get badly needed transmission lines built as they wrestle with land-use disputes, and difficulties delivering natural gas supplies to the power plants that are a crucial backstop to wind and solar energy when the sun is not shining and the wind is not blowing. […]

Some political leaders and utilities in the Midwest are assuring residents that their connections to neighboring grids can provide a backup of energy to avoid blackouts if the Midcontinent system gets overstressed. But energy experts warn those power transfers may not be available in the event of a prolonged heat wave that stretches across many states, as California learned when part of its grid became overwhelmed in the summer of 2020.

posted by Rich Miller
Thursday, Jun 2, 22 @ 12:16 pm

Comments

Well, southern Illinois has loud annoying groups wanting to split themselves off from Chicago.

In this instance, they are getting their wish.

Comment by TheInvisibleMan Thursday, Jun 2, 22 @ 12:23 pm
Yesterday would have been a good day to buy a generator…

Comment by 47th Ward Thursday, Jun 2, 22 @ 12:34 pm
Thanks for this. We’re on a co-op in Union County. Fingers crossed.

Comment by MelAir Thursday, Jun 2, 22 @ 12:36 pm
“A major reason is that some of the coal plants that regulators assumed would keep running for another year or two are instead coming offline”…Growing up in Southern Illinois, as a kid I used to see trainload after trainload of coal headed north on the Illinois Central Gulf. Now, I see trainloads of coal headed south. Things change. Power generation changes. I know we eventually have to transition to wind and solar energy, but it’s going to be a bumpy ride. Also, I was in Texas in February 2021 when the power grid there went down. 84 hours without power was no fun.

Comment by up2now Thursday, Jun 2, 22 @ 12:37 pm
MISO does include much more than “southern Illinois” but yes I know at least 3 coal plants shuttered within 20 miles of my office.

Comment by Vote Quimby Thursday, Jun 2, 22 @ 12:45 pm
Private sector energy companies have been criminally bribing our elected officials, been demanding that rate payers pay exorbitant fees because their nuclear reactors “aren’t profitable” when they’re clearing billions a year and profit, and now it’s pretty clear that they’re incapable of planning and building appropriate capacity after they take coal plants off line due to being too expensive to operate and refusing to repair or replace their existing units?

If we want secure energy in the future utilities need to become public again so that profit stops being the motive that prevents companies from being prepared, planning, and doing the right thing by climate change.

Comment by Candy Dogood Thursday, Jun 2, 22 @ 1:01 pm
Maybe getting that backlog of renewable power applications approved and running might help. Solar panels on every roof would help. Vermont subsidized renewable energy on homes over the past few years. Now those homes shave off energy use and add to the energy supply during extreme events. Too bad Ameren didn’t make those efforts. Sunny fields, steady winds and lots of methane on those big CAFOS could make a dent in peak usage if they were online.

Comment by froganon Thursday, Jun 2, 22 @ 1:38 pm
@Candy - I’m not at all happy about how electric reliability issues are being handled by both the private sector and government, but do you really think handing over operational control of utilities to any government body will improve the colossal mess we’re in?

Comment by Suburbanon Thursday, Jun 2, 22 @ 1:41 pm
I’m for all for a stay of execution on some of these coal fired plants. Bottom line I expect power to be a non-negotiable part of my daily life. Lets get together and figure out how to keep the lights on here and the rest of the Midwest.

I also read today with great interest a story about using waste fuel from our nukes to create clean energy. Let’s commit to building one or two of those plants over the next decade.

Comment by Cool Papa Bell Thursday, Jun 2, 22 @ 1:42 pm
===I also read today with great interest a story about using waste fuel===

People have been pushing that for years and it was never done because the resulting product can be quite volatile and dangerous. I’d have to see more about the new stuff, tho. Got a link?

Comment by Rich Miller Thursday, Jun 2, 22 @ 2:31 pm
=but do you really think handing over operational control of utilities to any government body will improve the colossal mess we’re in?=

Having watched the process work itself out over the last 50 years, I think it could be better. Corporations cut corners on every aspect of energy creation, engage in illegal activity, and lobbying all to boost the stock price. Eliminating That alone would make energy cheaper for citizens.

Comment by JS Mill Thursday, Jun 2, 22 @ 2:32 pm
Ameren spends less money employing a highly skilled Journeymen Lineman than the state spends employing an AFSCME janitor. If you want energy rates to skyrocket, let the state run that sector.

Comment by What's the point? Thursday, Jun 2, 22 @ 2:38 pm
That Nuke in Michigan that just shut down generated as much power as ALL the windmills in Michigan combined. That plant is adjacent to the MISO grid.
I won’t hold my breath waiting for any help from the Michigan grid.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/another-nuclear-plant-closes-get-ready-for-electricity-shortages/ar-AAXRrvY?ocid=uxbndlbing

Comment by DuPage Thursday, Jun 2, 22 @ 2:44 pm
Here is the waste fuel story from CNBC.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/02/nuclear-waste-us-could-power-the-us-for-100-years.html

Comment by Cool Papa Bell Thursday, Jun 2, 22 @ 3:17 pm
“Southern Illinois… along with large parts of Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and other states linked to the regional grid…”

Plan your summer vacations accordingly.

– MrJM

Comment by MisterJayEm Thursday, Jun 2, 22 @ 3:32 pm
What’s the point?, do you have evidence to support that claim because I’m not seeing it. I found where janitors top out at about $37/hr and journeyman linemen top out at $47/hr.
https://www2.illinois.gov/cms/personnel/employeeresources/Pages/PersonnelPayPlan.aspx
https://www.ibew702.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/2017_-_2020__Ameren_CIPS_Illini_702_CBA_8.5_X_11.pdf

Also, if public utilities transitioned to either government or non-profit companies, then the savings come from the profits that will no longer be going to shareholders and would instead be used to improve infrastructure or go back to customers. But there’s plenty of examples of government owned utilities in this country (like Tennessee Valley Authority) so we can see what works and what doesn’t.

Comment by MyTwoCents Thursday, Jun 2, 22 @ 4:28 pm
Once you factor in pension and employer healthcare for life vs Ameren’s 4.5% 401k match the journeyman linemen look pretty affordable.

Comment by What's the point? Thursday, Jun 2, 22 @ 4:57 pm
=== MISO does include much more than “southern Illinois” ===

What WaPo is calling southern Illinois is actually the entire state outside of Chicagoland.

Comment by Ralphy Thursday, Jun 2, 22 @ 5:31 pm
@What’s the point- I don’t you have anything that resembles numbers, but I would like to see them anyway. Otherwise, you don’t know what you are talking about.

Comment by JS Mill Thursday, Jun 2, 22 @ 6:32 pm
Always great to hear from the education elites. I suppose “having watched the process work itself out over the last 50 years” is somehow more valid than any numbers one could produce.

Comment by What's the point? Thursday, Jun 2, 22 @ 8:04 pm
=== Ameren spends less money employing a highly skilled Journeymen Lineman than the state spends employing an AFSCME janitor. If you want energy rates to skyrocket, let the state run that sector.===

So what’s the point, give us the numbers. Surely you have them nearby.
And why the ad hominem attack? Commenters don’t have an edit button.

Comment by Da big bad wolf Friday, Jun 3, 22 @ 5:40 am